With pitchers and catchers reporting this week, we’ve got a lot of important news filtering in. This can inform our fantasy baseball draft decisions and impact average draft position (ADP), so we always want to monitor changes in the market to see if we can find value.
We’re going to highlight five players to watch based on what we’ve heard in the last few days.
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Each player featured this week is either dealing with injuries or returning from injuries. We’re going to discuss market value, looking at average draft position from National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Draft Champions Leagues since January 24th. This format is preferred because it’s the most active draft platform right now.
Blake Snell (SP – LAD)
NFBC ADP: 81.70 (Min: 72, Max: 94)
According to Jack Harris of the California Post, Blake Snell may start the year on the injured list (IL) due to shoulder issues. Remember that he missed a few months last year due to shoulder inflammation. However, we saw Snell close out the year on a high note.
Expect Snell to continue dropping in drafts, getting to the point where he can be a strong value. This feels like more of a precautionary move by the Dodgers, especially since their elite depth can allow them to take it slow with Snell. If you see Snell in the 10th round or later, he’s worth pouncing on.
Shane McClanahan (SP – TB)
NFBC ADP: 230.70 (Min: 211, Max: 252)
Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder recently talked about how Shane McClanahan (triceps) has looked terrific throughout the offseason. He’s built up to start the year. This is encouraging news from a former ace who has missed over two years of action.
With this news, expect McClanahan to continue rising in drafts. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him crack the top 200 by the time spring training starts. I like rolling the dice and taking a shot on high upside here, especially before everyone else catches on. If you’re drafting early, make McClanahan a priority.
Josh Hader (RP – HOU)
NFBC ADP: 48.40 (Min: 38, Max: 68)
According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, Josh Hader (shoulder) has been throwing lightly on flat ground. The Astros expect to know more about his status later this week. Recall that Hader missed over seven weeks with a left shoulder strain, so this is notable.
With that said, I’m totally fine buying the dip on Hader. There’s a good chance he falls to around the 10th round due to these concerns, making him worth a shot. We can’t assume that he’ll be out long-term. It may just be a case where he starts the year with a short IL stint.
Spencer Schwellenbach (SP – ATL)
NFBC ADP: 81.50 (Min: 62, Max: 93)
Spencer Schwellenbach was placed on the 60-day IL with elbow inflammation. This came out of left field because, despite missing three months with a small fracture in his right elbow, reports were positive on Schwellenbach.
Now that he’s out until at least June, this is a major blow for early drafters. I’m expecting Schwellenbach to fall outside of the top 300 picks, maybe even later. This could just be a ticking time bomb for Tommy John surgery. I’d just avoid him from here on out, even at the reduced cost.
Corbin Burnes (SP – ARI)
NFBC ADP: 530.20 (Min: 467, Max: 584)
Corbin Burnes is returning from Tommy John surgery this year. We got some positive reports where he said that he could be ready for action by the All-Star break. As a former ace who goes outside of the top 500, Burnes is worth a look in draft-and-hold leagues. He could provide a late-season boost like Kyle Bradish did last year.
If your league has IL spots, it would make sense to use one of your late-rounders on Burnes. As for his NFBC ADP, I expect him to crack the top 450 going forward.
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