While the fantasy football season is in the rearview, there is plenty of real NFL football remaining. BettingPros will have you covered through the NFL Playoffs with game picks, player props predictions, and more! Here are our top NFL picks and predictions for Super Bowl LX: Seahawks vs. Patriots.
NFL Super Bowl LX Picks & Predictions: Seahawks vs. Patriots
Here are a few of our top picks from Andrew Erickson’s Betting Primer.
NFL Super Bowl LX Picks
Trends:
- The Patriots have won each of their last nine road games (9-0 on the road this season and 7-2 ATS).
- The Patriots have covered five straight as road underdogs.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
- The Patriots have won 13 straight as favorites.
- The Patriots have won 16 of their last 17 games.
- The Seahawks have won their last nine games.
- Seattle has won 13 straight as favorites.
- Seven of the Seahawks’ last eight postseason games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last five Super Bowls.
- The Seahawks have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games.
- The Patriots have scored last in each of their last four games.
- The Seahawks have won 14 of their last 15 road games (15 straight as road favorites)
- The Seahawks are 14-2 SU on the road since the start of 2024.
- However, Seattle is just 6-3-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2024.
- Seattle is 12-4 ATS as a favorite this season (15-1 SU).
- The Pats are 4-2 SU as underdogs this season (0-2 as home underdogs).
- Seattle is 14-8 toward the OVER as a favorite since 2024 (10-6 this season O/U).
- The Pats are 4-2 O/U as an underdog this season.
Overall:
Seattle will be the fourth straight top-10 defense New England will face in the postseason – and their offense hasn’t been as great the last three weeks, averaging just 15.6 points (overall PPG boosted by the pick-six versus the Texans).
The Patriots’ offensive line has been shaky in pass protection, and that won’t get easier versus Seattle’s defensive front. Seattle’s pass rush will be problematic: 5th in pressure rate versus the Pats’ 25th-ranked offensive blocking rate allowed.
Drake Maye has taken at least five sacks when facing top-10 defenses this season. I do like the Over on the Seahawks’ game sack total (waiting on a line to drop).
The line is listed at 3.5 sacks with plus-money toward the over (+128).
However, if the Pats QB can buy time with his legs, scramble and escape the rush, he will inflict damage downfield versus this Seahawks’ secondary.
Maye used his legs versus a tough Chargers’ defense during Wild Card Weekend, hitting a season-high 66 yards. The last two times he has rushed for at least 50 yards were when he faced top-10 defenses. Maye has gone over 40 rushing yards in four of his last seven games. He went well over his rushing yards mark versus the Broncos, rushing for 65 yards on 10 carries.
I expect him to attack downfield (like Matthew Stafford did in his last two matchups versus Seattle).
The Seahawks allowed 226 deep passing yards to Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense in the NFC Championship Game, the 3rd-highest mark by a defense in any game in the last decade. They are the only team to allow at least 200 yards on deep passes in a playoff game and win since at least 2016, according to Next Gen Stats.
Seattle ranks just 14th in EPA/pass attempt on passes over 20-plus air yards.
For the Patriots’ defense…the script is simple.
“Shut down” Jaxon Smith-Njigba with CB Christian Gonzalez. More like “limit him,” but you get my point.
Slow down JSN and then neutralize the Seahawks’ run game. They want to run the football (boasting one of the league’s highest run %), but the Pats’ healthy run defense cannot be run on. Shut down Kenneth Walker III with the run defense.
In fact, both teams figure to struggle running the ball. Both defenses are top-3 in EPA/rush allowed. Hence why you could see more pass attempts in the second half…depending on how committed each offense is to the run. Considering this, you could see a lower-scoring first half as both teams try to establish the run.
NE: 12-8 O/U in the first half this season. SEA: 6-13. First half total is listed at 23.5 points.
In the five Super Bowls that Josh McDaniels has been the Patriots’ OC, 3-2 toward the over overall and in the first half. However, the average is still just 19.8 PPG in the first half. And a lot of that has been from the Pats’ offense starting slowly.
The Pats haven’t scored more than 14 points in the first half of Super Bowls called by McDaniels. 4/5 game with 12 points or fewer scored in the first half.
Also, it’s a Super Bowl between two defensive-minded head coaches.
Erickson’s Pick: Pats +4.5 (Sprinkle Pats ML +200)
Check out the full Super Bowl LX Betting Primer & Picks
NFL Super Bowl LX Player Props & Bets
Pat Fitzmaurice shares one of his favorite NFL player props for this week’s game.
Kenneth Walker III Under 70.5 Rushing Yards
I have two favorite bets for this Super Bowl. The first is the Under on the game total (45.5 points). The second is the under on Kenneth Walker’s rushing yardage.
Walker has been terrific over his last five games, averaging 85.2 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry since Week 16. Walker’s tag-team partner in the Seattle backfield, Zach Charbonnet, tore his ACL in the Seahawks’ divisional-round game against the 49ers, which suggests that Walker could get a massive workload in the Super Bowl.
However, the Patriots’ run defense is nasty.
There was a late-season stretch when the New England run defense faltered, but the Patriots were missing either one or both of DT Milton Williams and LB Robert Spillane at the time. When Williams and Spillane have both been healthy, the New England run defense has been an iron curtain.
In the 14 games Williams and Spillane have played together this season, opposing RBs have averaged 54.3 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. In New England’s three playoff games, opposing RBs have averaged 38.7 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry.
In those 14 games, the most rushing yards any individual running back had against the Patriots was 58. The Jets’ Breece Hall did it in Week 11 – in a game that Williams left with an ankle injury after playing just eight snaps. The next-best rushing total by any RB against the Williams/Spillane combo? Sean Tucker’s 53 rushing yards for the Buccaneers in Week 10.
No other running back reached 50 rushing yards in the 14 games that Williams and Spillane played together. James Cook had 49 rushing yards in his one game against the Williams/Spillane duo, DeVon Achane had 30 rushing yards against them, and Bijan Robinson had 46 rushing yards against them.
I’m smashing the Under here, but I’m going to wait until Sunday to bet this one, because I think this number is more likely to go up than down.
And check out all of Fitz’s NFL player props for Super Bowl LX
Here are even more of our favorite NFL player props via our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
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