FantasyPros Staff | Sat, Mar 14th 2026, 8:03am EDT

4 Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid in 2026 Drafts

Every fantasy baseball draft has a few players who can sink your build if you pay full freight. That is the difference between a sleeper and a landmine. A sleeper can outperform the room. A landmine blows up the value of an early or mid-round pick and forces you to spend the next three months trying to patch the damage.

That is the point here with these four names. This is not about saying they are bad players. In most cases, they are very good players. The problem is price, risk, and the shape of the downside if things go sideways.

Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid in 2026 Drafts

Here are four 2026 fantasy baseball bust candidates that deserve extra caution on draft day.

Cal Raleigh (C – SEA)

Cal Raleigh is coming off a monster year, and there is no point pretending otherwise. The power is real. The lineup role is real. The volume is real. But this is exactly where fantasy managers get themselves in trouble.

When a player comes off a career-best season and gets pushed into the top 20 overall, the margin for error gets tiny. That is especially true when the batting average still carries real risk. If Raleigh settles in more as a .225 to .235 hitter instead of repeating his peak production, it gets a lot harder for him to pay off that price.

The bigger point is this: you are not drafting last year’s stats. You are drafting the next set of outcomes. Raleigh can still hit 40 homers and be a very useful fantasy asset, but that does not automatically make him worth a second-round pick in every format.

In one-catcher leagues, the position is deep enough that passing on the premium makes a lot of sense. Even in leagues where you value the edge at catcher, the draft cost is doing a lot of the damage here. Raleigh is still a good player. He just has a real chance to be overpriced.

Oneil Cruz (OF – PIT)

Oneil Cruz remains one of the most tempting players in fantasy baseball. The tools are outrageous. The raw power is massive. The speed gives him category juice. On paper, this looks like a player who should crush.

The problem is that fantasy managers keep drafting the version of Cruz they hope shows up, not the version that has actually shown up.

He still strikes out too much. He still puts too many balls on the ground. And even though he hits the ball incredibly hard, that only matters so much when the contact quality does not translate into a more complete profile. A 20-homer, high-steal season is useful. A 20-homer season with a damaging batting average and shaky run production is a lot less exciting when it costs a top-100 pick.

That is what makes Cruz such a dangerous draft-day bet in 2026. You can see the upside. Everyone can. But there is a real chance he hurts you more than he helps, especially if you are counting on him to stabilize an outfield spot early.

If he slips far enough, the gamble becomes easier to justify. At market price, the downside still feels too loud.

Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL)

Brandon Woodruff is one of the clearest examples of talent not matching fantasy draft cost.

When he is on the mound and right, he still looks like a difference-maker. The strikeout ability is there. The command is there. The track record is there. But fantasy baseball is about availability, and that is where the concerns start stacking up.

Woodruff has thrown very limited innings over the last few seasons, and there is already enough uncertainty around his role and timetable to make this a headache. Milwaukee also has enough rotation depth that it does not need to rush him. That matters. Teams with options are usually happy to take the cautious route, and fantasy managers are the ones left waiting.

That makes him a risky SP3 or SP4 target at his current price. If you are drafting in March and already taking on injury risk, you had better be getting a discount. With Woodruff, the discount does not feel steep enough.

There is a version of this where he gives you excellent ratios in limited work. There is also a version where you spend weeks holding a roster spot for an uncertain return. That is not the kind of bet worth forcing in this range.

Blake Snell (SP – LAD)

Blake Snell is a classic fantasy dilemma. The upside is undeniable. If he were guaranteed a full season, he would be drafted much higher and nobody would blink.

But that is not the reality with Snell, and the 2026 price still asks you to ignore too many warning signs.

He is already dealing with health concerns. The Dodgers have enough depth to slow-play him. They are built for October, not for pushing one arm through a full regular-season grind. That alone should make fantasy managers more cautious.

Then there is the usual Snell experience. Even when he is effective, the WHIP can be rough because of the walks. Even when he is dominant, the innings total can disappoint. The best-case scenario is excellent. The problem is you are paying for a scenario that is far from guaranteed.

That is why Snell fits this landmine conversation so well. He has ace-level talent, but the cost still assumes a level of stability that just is not there.

Fantasy Baseball Takeaways

Cal Raleigh is still a premium power bat, but his 2026 draft cost leaves very little room for batting average regression.
Oneil Cruz remains a tools bet, but the strikeouts, ground-ball profile, and batting average downside make him risky inside the top 100.
Brandon Woodruff has the talent to matter, but limited innings and an uncertain timetable make him tough to trust at market price.
Blake Snell brings top-tier upside, though injuries, workload questions, and WHIP risk make him a shaky investment where he is being drafted.
In all four cases, this is more about price than talent. The safest move is often letting someone else pay for the ceiling.

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