Editor’s Note: This article was written by PoolGenius, whose data-driven tools and simulations have helped subscribers win more than $10 million in sports pools since 2017. Find out more about their advice on how to make March Madness Survivor Picks, including their best first-round targets.
The NCAA Tournament bracket is set, and survivor pool players now face the real challenge: navigating six rounds without running out of viable teams.
Unlike bracket contests, survivor pools aren’t just about picking the team most likely to win each game. Success comes from managing your available teams across the entire tournament. Burning elite teams too early can leave you short on options later, while overly risky picks can end your run before the first weekend.
That’s why strong March Madness survivor picks balance three factors: win probability in the current round, future value later in the tournament, and projected pick popularity.
Below are some of the best NCAA survivor picks for Thursday and Friday, and how they fit into a longer-term survivor strategy.
The Best Way to Plan Your NCAA March Madness Survivor Picks
Before diving into the March Madness survivor picks, it helps to understand the full landscape of the tournament.
With the PoolGenius NCAA Survivor Tool, you can track your March Madness survivor entries, see advancement odds for every round, evaluate projected public pick popularity, and plan your pick paths across the entire bracket.
The tool is especially helpful if you’re managing multiple entries and trying to avoid overlapping strategies.
Plan Your NCAA Survivor Picks →
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March Madness Survivor Picks: First Round Targets
One important rule of thumb in the early rounds: know your pool’s rules before making picks.
Different NCAA survivor pools use different formats. Some require one pick per round. Others require one pick per day, two picks during the first round, or other variations.
Those differences can dramatically change the optimal strategy, so always check your format first.
For more on this, see our full NCAA Survivor Strategy Guide.
Thursday Picks
There are a couple of strong candidates among Thursday’s games, though some will likely attract significant public attention.
One team that fits the survivor profile well is Nebraska, which enters the tournament as a 12.5-point favorite over Troy in the opening round. Nebraska has strong win odds in the First Round, but our simulations give them only about a 42% chance to win their Second Round game if they advance.
That’s exactly what you are looking for in a March Madness survivor pick: strong odds to win this round, but relatively limited future value.
There are several other options that fit the bill on Thursday, including some under-the-radar candidates that rate well in our pick grades. You can see the full list in our NCAA Survivor Picks Tool.
Friday Picks
Friday’s slate has several strong candidates as well.
A handful of teams earn 90+ grades in our March Madness survivor model, indicating strong First Round win probability paired with relatively modest future value in later rounds.
One example is Texas Tech, which enters the tournament as a 7.5-point favorite over Akron. While Texas Tech has solid odds to advance past the opening round, its long-term tournament outlook is more limited.
Kansas is another strong target, stepping in as a 14.5-point favorite over Cal Baptist in the First Round. However, the Jayhawks could potentially face St. John’s in the next round, where they may enter the game as an underdog.
That type of potential matchup can reduce future value and make a team more appealing as a “right now” survivor selection.
Get March Madness Survivor Pick Grades for Every Round
The examples above only scratch the surface of what’s available in the PoolGenius NCAA Survivor Tool.
Our full survivor picks package includes:
- Pick grades for every team in every round
- Advancement odds throughout the tournament
- Projected pick popularity across survivor pools
- Schedule insights to help manage picks across multiple days
- Tools to track entries and plan survivor paths
Together, these tools help you stay organized, manage multiple entries, and give yourself the best chance to win your pool.