Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. The weather is warm and the sun shines bright. The NBA is in full focus right now, with no football or meaningful baseball (minus the World Baseball Classic) yet. Hopefully, you’ve been playing bigger contests.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent five-game slate tonight with four different start times, so there are plenty of opportunities for late swaps.
In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)
- DraftKings: $12,400
- FanDuel: $12,700
I know Nikola Jokic has been back for a while, but it feels like I haven’t been able to recommend him recently. Tonight, though, I’m not missing the chance. I know Oklahoma City is a tough matchup, but they’re banged up. Isaiah Hartenstein is out with a calf injury, Chet Holmgren is questionable with the flu and Jalen Williams remains out.
The Nuggets big man has exceeded 57 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, including three 70+ point efforts. He put up 91 fantasy points against the Warriors. On any given night, he’s capable of breaking the slate. When you’re going for a big win, it’s hard to avoid that. Keep track of his rostership, but I’ll likely be overweight on Jokic tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,700
- FanDuel: $10,900
By default, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is next up as a core play. I can’t imagine I’ll have a lot of lineups with him and Nikola Jokic, but I do imagine I’ll have a lot of rosters with at least one of them. Among players on today’s slate, these two clearly have the highest ceiling.
The Thunder guard’s averages haven’t been elite recently, but Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over 60 fantasy points in two of his last six games; that’s what we’re looking for here. He gets a bit of a bump at home, and Denver has been ultra-friendly to opponents of late.
In their last 15 games, Denver has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. That’s more than the Kings and the Jazz. This game does have the highest total on the slate, and I expect it to be closer than anticipated. With all the injuries, we need to consider that Gilgeous-Alexander is going to take over and put up another 60-point effort. He’s a must-roster player, and I’m comfortable being overweight on the Thunder guard.
Evan Mobley (PF, C – CLE)
- DraftKings: $8,400
- FanDuel: $7,800
After missing some time, Evan Mobley has eased his way back into the Cavaliers’ lineup and seems to be back to full form. He put up 42 fantasy points yesterday and returns home to face a 76ers lineup with no Joel Embiid and a defense that ranks in the bottom seven of the league.
Mobley’s usage rate is at 25%, and I expect him to play over 30 minutes. With Jarrett Allen questionable, I won’t be shocked if Mobley’s projected rostership is low. While I also like him in GPPs, his floor is way more solid than his ceiling.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
Brandin Podziemski (PG, SG – GSW)
- DraftKings: $7,400
- FanDuel: $7,300
Golden State has been flying under the radar of late, going 6-9 in its last 15 games. They’ve been banged up and now seem to be without Al Horford tonight. Luckily, they face Utah. Over the last 30 games, no team has allowed more fantasy points to opponents than the Jazz.
In his last six games, Brandin Podziemski hasn’t exactly taken over, but his usage rate has elevated to 23%, and he has three straight games playing 37+ minutes. Podziemski has scored 35+ fantasy points in three straight games, and I think right around there is where we can project the Warriors guard for tonight. That’s plenty safe on a five-game slate for cash games.
Quentin Grimes (SG, SF – PHI)
- DraftKings: $6,000
- FanDuel: $6,200
With no Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe questionable, all eyes are on Quentin Grimes. He’s coming off a 40-point fantasy effort, and despite the price bump, I’m still happy rostering him in cash.
I project him closer to 33 fantasy points tonight, but given how banged up the 76ers are, Grimes will need to be a big part of the offense. The Cavaliers’ defense in their last 15 games has ranked 12th, which is notable but not elite enough to be scary. At such a low price where you can guarantee 30 minutes of play, at minimum, I’d be surprised if a lot of people don’t roster Grimes.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
Karl-Anthony Towns (C, PF – NYK)
- DraftKings: $8,600
- FanDuel: $8,600
To cap off the night at 10:00 p.m. ET, we have a lovely Knicks-Clippers matchup, where New York sits as a one-possession favorite. With the lowest total on the slate, I can’t imagine a lot of people will be on this game, and I don’t blame them. That offers an opportunity to zag and roster some leverage options.
It’s still early to lock in rostership projections, but I don’t expect Karl-Anthony Towns to be highly rostered. Nikola Jokic is up top, and there are some decent value options, but at Towns’ price, he’s well within play. The Clippers are still a pace-up spot for New York, and their defense has been in the bottom half of the league over their last 15 games.
This is easily a spot where Towns can go over 50 fantasy points, so don’t be afraid to get him in your lineups tonight. He also offers a great spot for late swap, where you can move on or off him depending on early game performances and final rostership projections.
Kyle Filipowski (PF, C – UTA)
- DraftKings: $7,800
- FanDuel: $7,600
You could name anyone here on a five-game slate and make a reasonable argument to roster them. I don’t think people understand how rare it is for projections to actually end up being true and chalk winning out. The beauty of live sports is its unpredictability, so don’t be scared to differentiate lineups in GPPs.
Moving my soapbox aside, I don’t hate Kyle Filipowski’s matchup. Golden State is weakened down low, and he’s coming off 51- and 44-point efforts in his last two games. That would be a bit of a reach to expect tonight, but this game does have the second-highest total of the slate, so points are expected to be scored.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Olivier-Maxence Prosper (PF, C – MEM)
- DraftKings: $5,000
- FanDuel: $5,300
The great thing about these articles is that you get to cover players you never thought you would discuss in a million years. With injuries derailing Memphis, Olivier-Maxence Prosper has taken over as the starting big man for the Grizzlies, starting in eight straight games.
He’s had some ups and downs, but Prosper has put together a handful of 35- and 40-point efforts. Against Brooklyn, I wouldn’t project that, but he still lines up for nearly 30 points. The Nets’ defense is bad enough that I’m OK with the pace-down spot here with the Grizzlies still favored.
Prosper’s price isn’t the cheapest, and the likes of Jahmai Mashack or Rayan Rupert can work here as well. But in terms of trust, Prosper is a top value play.
Quinten Post (C – GSW)
- DraftKings: $3,500
- FanDuel: $3,800
If you’re looking for a full punt play, consider Quinten Post. With no Al Horford, not to mention Moses Moody, Will Richard or likely Kristaps Porzingis, Post is bound to get some additional run tonight.
Post’s price has actually dropped compared to recent averages, and there is an opportunity to take advantage of that. I must advise monitoring the injury situation for Golden State because someone has to end up playing. Against the Jazz, anyone is viable. Which makes me feel good about this play despite it being a punt option.