4 Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates (2026)

After almost three months of the fantasy baseball season, it becomes relatively easy to spot outliers and candidates for positive and negative regression. With half a season of games and plate appearances, we will see wild swings in production, and the tendency is to overreact.

What if a player performs as poorly as Manny Machado (.177/.255/.358) to start the year? Bench him or drop him to the waiver wire? I can’t endorse dropping him yet in 10- or 12-team leagues. Nick Kurtz has 18 home runs but a 29% strikeout rate. He also sports a .388 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Can that pace continue, or will he regress?

The decisions will get tougher as the season goes on. For now, 12 weeks of games are the only sample size we have to go by.

Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates

This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression relative to their recent performance each week, helping fantasy managers view each player accurately. Digging beneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to determine whether a given player is overperforming or underperforming expectations.

With the first 12 weeks of the Major League Baseball season behind us and still about 90 games to go for every team, there will be a lot of positive and negative regression moving forward. Let’s take a look at some of the week’s largest outliers and see what their futures might look like.

Stats up to date through June 15th.

Players Due for Positive Regression

Manny Machado (3B – SDP)

Since we brought it up, let’s talk about Manny Machado. He has had a history of starting slow in a number of his 14 seasons. But he always turns it around. Machado has not had a batting average lower than .275 or a slugging rate below .450 since 2019. So the fact that he has started his first 69 games with a .177/.255/.358 slash line is concerning, but we should have hope.

Machado is still only 33 years old and has a strong track record to back up his ratios, and his power (12 home runs) will return this season. Machado’s BABIP is the lowest in the league at .180, and there is no one within 29 points of him. For his career, Machado is above the Major League average at .298 and has never been below .265 for a season.

With that perspective, you have to assume that with such a low number over his first three months, his last three will have to be at or above his career .298 average the rest of the way.

With that better fortune on batted balls, the power and run production should also return. With a 10% walk rate and a 22% strikeout rate, it’s clear Machado is seeing the ball fine at the plate. Better days have to be ahead. Right?

Dillon Dingler (C, DH – DET)

Dillon Dingler is the poster boy for the fact that you can have an amazing season and still be due for some positive regression. Dingler is, without a doubt, the best player on the Tigers through almost three months of 2026.

Coming into the Tigers’ game on Monday night against the Astros, Dingler led the Tigers in home runs, RBI, slugging rate and xwOBA. He was also in the top seven in the league in WAR and RBI. Dingler has 16 home runs and 50 RBI in just 270 plate appearances, despite being taken well after the first 250 hitters in spring drafts.

But Dingler does have a .272 BABIP, about 20 points below league average. According to Statcast, his expected batting average (.293) and expected slugging rate (.558) are both higher than his actual numbers (.256 and .529 right now).

Dingler’s average exit velocity, max exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are all slightly up compared to his numbers from last year and in the minors. Where he is outpacing his past numbers is in the contact department, with an elite mark. Dingler is now at 91% in zone contact rate, almost four percentage points higher than his career mark

If all of this keeps up, a wonderful season for Dingler could turn into something historic.

Players Due for Negative Regression

Hunter Goodman (C – COL)

There are three catchers with at least 10 home runs so far in the 2026 season — Hunter Goodman (20), Shea Langeliers (18) and Dillon Dingler (16). They are the cream of the crop at the position. But only Goodman has the stats that say he might start to see his power numbers decline.

First, Goodman’s BABIP is very high at .319, especially for a catcher (neither Langeliers nor Dingler is above .300). It will always stay somewhat inflated because of Coors Field, but his career number is .298.

Second, Goodman’s strikeout rate is 33.5%, the fourth-highest in the National League. An 8% walk rate accompanies that, so his discipline at the plate has been completely one-sided this year.

Still, Goodman has 20 home runs and a .537 slugging rate. Will he remain fantasy-relevant because he plays half of his games in Colorado? Absolutely. But I do not expect him to keep pace with the likes of Langeliers and Dingler based on what I am seeing from Goodman through the first 12 weeks. Give me the under on 40 home runs.

Colson Montgomery (SS – CWS)

Colson Montgomery looks like a great fantasy power source (17 home runs) in 2026 because of his elite barrel rate. His barrel rate in 2025 was 14.5%. In 2026, it’s also at 14%, which is one of the top marks in the league. Montgomery’s 17 home runs and 40 RBI are among the best at the shortstop position.

But Montgomery’s new swing has led to a very high whiff rate (17.8%) and high strikeout rate (30.5%). Both of those could mean worse performances are ahead if he starts missing more pitches.

The young White Sox slugger strikes out a lot, has a good barrel rate and a great launch angle and swing speed. Montgomery also has a lot of pure strength that can get the ball out in any park. But with a high strikeout rate and a 21.5% home run per fly-ball rate that is way above league average, Montgomery might regress soon.