Our analysts compared FantasyPros’ own half-PPR projections against current fantasy football ADP to find players the numbers like more than the market does, spanning early-round picks all the way down to double-digit-round values. Here’s the full breakdown.
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Early-Round Values
Going as the RB14, 21st overall, Jacobs is projected for 289 carries, 1,161 rushing yards, and 12 rushing touchdowns, plus another 36 catches and roughly one receiving touchdown. Health was the story that took some shine off last season, as a knee bruise and thigh injury limited him over the second half. Since joining his current team, he’s averaged nearly 19 touches per game and scored close to a touchdown per game across his tenure there, a real testament to how heavily his head coach leans on him and how well that coaching staff designs its run game. The offensive line isn’t a strength on paper, but that staff has a track record of getting more out of its line as a unit than the individual parts would suggest. If he stays healthy in his age-28 season, a real risk given his workload history, these projections look very achievable. Even in a down year statistically, he still finished as a top-10 running back in points per game last year, and touchdown production alone has carried him to double-digit scores in most of his NFL seasons.
Going as the WR18, 41st overall, the projections actually rate Egbuka even higher than that price suggests, stepping into a departed veteran’s role. His first six games last year came without two more established teammates healthy, and after that, the entire offense played through injuries for the rest of the season, muddying a clear read on his true talent level. The prospect comparison here is a Keenan Allen type, someone whose lower average depth of target gets offset by sheer target volume, projecting as a real backend wide receiver one rather than a true elite alpha. Even a fully healthy version of the teammate he’s replacing wouldn’t necessarily cap his ceiling, since this offense has supported multiple productive receivers at once before, and the new offensive coordinator’s frequent use of three-receiver sets should keep volume flowing to both of the team’s top two options rather than concentrating it in one place.
Going as the WR11, 29th overall, the projections have Rice at 99 catches, 1,099 yards, and 9.7 touchdowns, which would rank him ahead of several more established names. The concerns here are real and significant: he’s played just 12 games combined over the last two seasons due to injury and suspension, recently served jail time for a probation violation, and had to recover from knee surgery during that time, with recent training camp footage looking less than fully spry. Beyond the off-field questions, there’s a deeper statistical concern: the team’s passing offense has been notably worse in the years since Rice arrived compared to before, with the starting quarterback’s yardage, touchdown, and per-attempt numbers all down significantly. That’s not his fault individually, but it raises real questions about whether the offense pivots toward other options this year, including a new running back who could absorb some of the short, high-percentage targets Rice has relied on. One analyst’s own projections have him outside the top 10 receivers entirely, noting that nearly all of his big offseason-referenced highlight plays have come on shorter completions turned into long runs after the catch rather than true downfield throws, a profile that doesn’t obviously support the volume the official projections are banking on.
Going as the RB6, 10th overall, our analysts are genuinely split here. The projections point to a real season, but one that lands closer to a backend RB1 finish in the RB10 to 12 range rather than a true top-six overall running back. One analyst believes the jump required from last year’s disappointing rookie output to a true top-six finish is larger than the modest per-game increase the projections themselves show, driven mostly by added rushing volume rather than a big receiving-game jump. The other analyst is more bullish, pointing to real offensive line improvements this year, including a highly regarded new center and two other linemen returning healthy, plus a new coaching staff with a track record of making its offensive line perform above the sum of its parts. With very little proven talent around him at either running back or receiver, the belief is that added play volume and efficiency will funnel disproportionately to Jeanty given how clearly he stands out as this offense’s top skill player.
Mid-Round Values
Going as the WR28, 64th overall, the projections have Odunze considerably higher at WR23, with 63 catches, 980 yards, and 8.1 touchdowns, actually ahead of several more hyped names in that same receiver room. There’s real ongoing debate about how this offense’s targets split between Odunze, a more hyped teammate, and the team’s ascending second-year tight end. One analyst notes the team’s new head coach has been unusually candid in public comments specifically praising that more hyped teammate, a signal some in the industry read as favoring him over Odunze this year, and the projections themselves do lean that direction too, just by a much smaller margin than the market currently reflects. The bigger risk flagged is that the tight end may simply be this offense’s true engine, with Odunze and that more hyped receiver functioning as a genuine 1B and 1C behind him rather than one being clearly ahead of the other, meaning either could finish in a more middling receiver range if the early-season target distribution doesn’t break cleanly in their favor.
Going as the TE5, 64th overall, the projections have ticked up recently for Fannin. One analyst is even more aggressive than the official numbers, banking on him being this offense’s clear top target earner overall regardless of the team’s unresolved quarterback competition, a read supported by multiple beat reporters independently saying the same thing. Touchdown upside remains conservative for both analysts given real doubts about how many points this offense scores overall, but the appeal is target-share driven, with a real path to 120 or more targets and close to 80 catches even in a touchdown-starved offense. The team did make concrete investments in upgrading its offensive line this offseason, which should help regardless of who’s throwing him the ball. His college production supports the profile too, having led all of FBS in catches and receiving yards in his final season before carrying real rookie-year production into a difficult NFL situation.
Double-Digit Round Values
Going as the QB2 in early ADP data but notably lower in more recent real-time ADP, the projections here are genuinely aggressive: nearly 4,000 passing yards, over 22 passing touchdowns, and real rushing production on top of that, ranking him ahead of several more established veteran quarterbacks. One analyst ranks him as his own overall QB2, pointing to how he pushed the ball downfield effectively down the stretch last season and fully unlocked a teammate receiver who’d started slowly. The concern is that his strong stretch came almost entirely against a soft slate of opposing defenses, raising real risk of some statistical regression this year once the schedule normalizes, though a weak divisional context could continue working in his favor regardless. The other analyst is more measured, framing last season’s turnaround as partly a perception effect after a genuinely rough start, and views a more moderate high-end QB2 outcome as the more realistic range rather than a locked-in QB1-caliber season.
Going as the WR42, 80th overall, the projections essentially forecast a near-identical statistical season to what Johnston already produced last year, including two fewer touchdowns than his actual total. One analyst pushes back hard on this static projection, arguing it doesn’t properly account for a real situational upgrade in this offense, including a new, highly regarded offensive coordinator and a much-improved offensive line. There’s a real double standard at play too: when a more established teammate’s disappointing prior output comes up, it’s readily excused as a product of a bad situation and poor blocking, while Johnston’s similarly disappointing numbers tend to get treated as a fixed reflection of his talent rather than also being shaped by that same bad situation. That analyst’s personal projection is meaningfully more bullish, forecasting closer to 900 receiving yards and approaching nine touchdowns if he settles in as this offense’s clear number two target earner.
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