These aren’t players our analysts think are bad. They’re players going at a price where a real, well-documented risk factor could turn a mid-round or even first-round pick into the reason you lose your league. Here’s the full list of fantasy football draft picks they’re avoiding.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Busts to Avoid
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
Going as the RB3, roughly the eighth overall pick, McCaffrey is coming off a season that led all players in total touches. Historically, that’s a dangerous signal: over the last 13 years, only one running back who saw 400-plus touches in a season finished as a top-five back the next year, and running backs age 27 or older who led the league in touches have never finished top five the following season across six such occurrences. McCaffrey himself has led the league in touches twice before in his career, and both times he finished outside the top 50 running backs the following year. He’ll turn 30 this season, already showed real signs of decline last year including a career-low mark in yards per carry, and plays behind one of the oldest, most injury-prone offensive lines in the league. One analyst would rather draft a different running back in his prime on a high-powered offense at a similar price, while the other acknowledges the scary historical precedent but is still willing to make the bet if McCaffrey stays healthy, especially in tougher leagues.
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
Going as the WR12, around the 27th overall pick and falling, Rice carries real injury and character risk after offseason knee surgery and a legal situation tied to a car accident he caused. His team’s passing offense has also been comparatively average since he entered the league, and real threats to his specific role exist this year, including a new running back who could take over screen-game usage that’s fueled much of his production, plus a healthy teammate who could cut into his target share. One analyst notes nobody drafts him feeling great about it, but the price is fairly palatable given he remains a real red zone touchdown threat regardless of broader offensive concerns.
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
Judkins is coming off a fibula fracture, and historical research shows players returning from that type of major leg injury tend to significantly underperform their prior production the following season, a pattern worth fading regardless of positive camp reports. His team could have one of the worst offenses in the league this year given real quarterback uncertainty and a brand new, unproven offensive line, opening the season with a brutal road schedule against two elite run defenses. A rookie teammate has already flashed real passing-down ability in the preseason, and the offensive coordinator has a track record of pulling even star backs off the field in favor of a more effective receiving complement at a previous stop. His underlying efficiency metrics were already poor last year even before the injury.
Cam Skattebo (RB – NYG)
A notable free agent addition to this backfield this offseason raises real questions about confidence in Skattebo’s ability to stay healthy following a serious injury last year, an open dislocation and tibia fracture with significant ligament damage that required emergency surgery. His game relied more on toughness than pure quickness to begin with, and that’s exactly the kind of skill set that doesn’t leave much margin if he’s lost even a step coming off surgery. Anyone drafting him hoping for a true three-down workhorse role handling early downs, goal-line work, and passing-down duties may be relying on an overly optimistic recovery timeline, with a real rough patch over the season’s first several weeks a genuine possibility.
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)
One analyst has reviewed his own past calls on this player and stands by the concern, framing it as a price problem rather than a talent problem. Burden is currently dealing with a groin injury, missing the rest of the preseason, with real uncertainty about his readiness for week one. Last year, he was largely absent from the offense whenever a healthy teammate was on the field, only seeing expanded snaps once that teammate got hurt, and he finished his rookie season with just four total red zone targets despite strong underlying per-route efficiency metrics that never translated into real touchdown production. A real risk exists that the offense’s preference for heavy tight end personnel groupings could limit his snaps even further this year. The other analyst disagrees, believing last year’s slow rollout was intentional patience rather than a real ceiling concern, and expects a shootout-heavy offensive context this year to feed real volume to Burden’s individual skill set.
DJ Moore (WR – BUF)
A new team and new quarterback pairing always invites real bust risk, since a receiver’s landing spot upgrade doesn’t automatically translate to fantasy value. Moore’s efficiency has declined over each of the past two seasons, and he’s never really been a big touchdown scorer even in better situations throughout his career. His new starting quarterback’s own touchdown-passing volume has been middling in recent years and doesn’t obviously project to fix that specific issue. One analyst believes the current price reflects who Moore used to be, a repeat 1,000-yard receiver, rather than who he’s actually been the last two seasons, while the other views him more as a floor-type player overall and hasn’t been actively targeting or fading him.
Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI)
Going as the RB12, around the 38th overall pick, one analyst was already skeptical of Love even before a fresh high ankle sprain pushed his price down somewhat. A direct precedent is drawn to a similar situation at a different team last year, where a less-heralded veteran back actually outperformed a highly drafted rookie teammate specifically in short-yardage and goal-line work, a real touchdown-equity risk that could apply here too given Love will share his backfield with an effective complementary back. Real target competition in the passing game from multiple established teammates could also cap his ceiling even as a plus pass-catching back, and a brutal opening schedule makes an early hot start unlikely. The long-term talent and future upside are real, just not necessarily fully realized in year one specifically.
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