Using our Boom or Bust report, we measured quarterback consistency by combining each passer’s Top-12 weekly finish rate with how rarely they busted below the QB2 threshold. These are the arms you could trust week to week last season. We also provide their current 2026 expert consensus ranking and outlook from our analysts.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Most Consistent Quarterbacks
| Player | 2026 ECR | 2025 Games | Boom % | Top-12 % | Bust % |
| Drake Maye NE | QB3 | 16 | 6% | 63% | 6% |
| Josh Allen BUF | QB1 | 16 | 25% | 69% | 19% |
| Dak Prescott DAL | QB10 | 16 | 19% | 63% | 25% |
| Brock Purdy SF | QB12 | 8 | 25% | 50% | 13% |
| Jacoby Brissett ARI | QB27 | 13 | 0% | 54% | 23% |
| Matthew Stafford LAR | QB15 | 16 | 19% | 56% | 31% |
| Trevor Lawrence JAC | QB9 | 16 | 13% | 50% | 25% |
| Daniel Jones IND | QB24 | 13 | 8% | 38% | 15% |
| Jaxson Dart NYG | QB11 | 13 | 8% | 54% | 31% |
| Patrick Mahomes II KC | QB14 | 14 | 21% | 57% | 36% |
In only his second NFL season, Drake Maye finished QB2 in fantasy scoring, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game. Maye was sublime as a passer last year, leading the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%), yards per pass attempt (8.9) and passer rating (113.5). Maye finished a close second in the MVP balloting behind the Rams’ Matthew Stafford. Aided by the tailwinds of a favorable regular-season schedule, Maye produced 4,394 passing yards and 31 TD passes. He also chipped in as a runner with 450 rushing yards and four TD runs – and his bountiful college rushing stats suggest there’s still more meat on that bone. Maye got a rude wakeup call in the playoffs, completing 58.3% of his throws and averaging 207 passing yards per game and 6.9 yards per attempt in a four-game run against the Chargers, Texans, Broncos and Seahawks – all among the best pass defenses in the league. Despite the sour ending, Maye’s second NFL season was a triumph. He’s a top-five fantasy quarterback moving forward.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Josh Allen is once again the consensus QB1 in fantasy. He finished QB1 in fantasy scoring last season for the fourth time in the last six years. After down years from Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts, the gap between Allen and other fantasy QBs seems to have widened. And yet, there are at least a few small gray clouds dotting Allen’s profile. In 2025, he hit a six-year low in passing yards per game (215.8), TD passes (25), and fantasy points per game (22.0). A lack of pass-catching weaponry has been a problem. Khalil Shakir led the Bills with 719 receiving yards in 2026, and Buffalo hasn’t had even a 900-yard receiver since Stefon Diggs left after the 2023 season. The Bills traded for D.J. Moore in March in an attempt to give Allen additional help. But what really anchors Allen’s fantasy value is his rushing. He ran for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2025 – his third consecutive season with double-digit TD runs. Over the last five years, Allen has averaged 640 rushing yards and 10.8 TD runs.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Last year, Trevor Lawrence finally had the breakout season that everyone had been waiting for as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. It was the first season in which he had eclipsed 18 fantasy points per game. Yes, part of this magical season included nine rushing touchdowns, which is probably not a sustainable mark to expect him to repeat in 2026, but he was fifth in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks, so maybe there is some carryover in his rushing touchdown production to this season. Lawrence really caught fire to close last season (Weeks 12-18) as the QB1 in fantasy points per game. During that seven-game stretch, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence was excellent as a passer, ranking third in yards per attempt, fifth in passing yards per game, third in hero throw rate, 11th in catchable target rate, and second in passing touchdowns (per Fantasy Points Data). Lawrence is a locked-in QB1 with tantalizing upside for 2026 with his pass-catching depth chart intact from that stretch run.
– Derek Brown
Last year, Dak Prescott directed an offense that was 13th in neutral passing rate and ninth in neutral pace en route to a QB7 finish (Weeks 1-17) in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying passers, Prescott was tenth in yards per attempt, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and 13th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and Javonte Williams all still in the fold, I don’t see a reason to expect Dallas or Prescott to slow down this season. Prescott had only a 5% passing touchdown rate last year, so there’s still some meat on the bone for Prescott to be even better this season for an offense that was fifth in points per game and red zone scoring attempts per game (16th in red zone touchdown percentage). Prescott is a locked-in QB1 that could be a top-five option if they can put more touchdowns in the end zone in 2026.
– Derek Brown
Brock Purdy’s pass-catching corps will look a lot different in 2026. Free-agent addition Mike Evans is expected to be Purdy’s new No. 1 receiver, and the 49ers added WR Christian Kirk and Deebo Samuel in free agency as well. Ricky Pearsall is already dealing with an injury, and Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne are gone. TE George Kittle is recovering from a torn Achilles and might not be ready for the start of the season. A nagging turf toe injury limited Purdy to nine starts in 2025. He threw 20 TD passes despite missing all that time, but he also threw 10 interceptions. Purdy has ranked inside QB1 range in fantasy points per game in each of his three full seasons as a starter. Consider him a low-end QB1 in 2026 fantasy drafts.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Stafford is coming off an MVP season in which he led the league in passing yards (4,707) and TD passes (46) while throwing only eight interceptions and taking just 23 sacks. He finished QB3 in fantasy scoring despite rushing for one yard all season and zero touchdowns. Stafford dealt with back issues last summer but played all 17 regular-season games plus three playoff games. The 38-year-old Stafford was feeling good enough to sign a contract extension that should keep him around for at least two more seasons. With offensive wizard Sean McVay as his head coach and the dynamic duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at wide receiver, Stafford seems well positioned for another big season.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
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Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus 2026 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.
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