Twitter: @bigbeavernationWebsite: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/beaver-dam/id1497433475
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My name is Alex and this blog is about fantasy sports.
I've been obsessed since I started playing 17 years ago as a cocky, sports-enthused middle schooler. First it was fantasy baseball, then football. I played both for many years - with decent results - relying on my "gut" instincts and leaning on my sports knowledge. The game was easy and fun. I loved it.
Fast forward to 2011. I started my first job at a bank in New York City and discovered the magical world of Excel. Data was at my fingertips. How could I lose? All I needed was a spreadsheet of expert projections - or better yet, an average across a bunch of experts - and I was ready to bet my life savings on the next league. Ready to take on the world. Ready to win big, eventually quit my job, move to Vegas, and do this thing full time.
Then I fell on my face. For the next several years, I sucked. I used data with reckless abandon. With every failure, I dug deeper into the numbers. Maybe my calculations were wrong? Maybe I had to tweak how I valued players or compared across positions? All I needed was more data. More analysis.
Things *finally* started to click after 5 years of a downward spiral to which only Cleveland Browns fans could relate. I was back. Was it luck, or did I finally strike the right balance of data and good ol' fashioned thinking?
I'm convinced that the two drivers were (1) lessons learned through years of failure and (2) my newfound interest in decision making / behavioral economics. I read a number of books - The Signal and the Noise, Thinking Fast and Slow, Black Swan, etc.- but none resonated more than Superforecasting. It taught me how to ground numbers in logic and vice versa. It became my fantasy bible.