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Bill Dubiel


Featured Pros: Fact or Fiction
Fri, May 11
Featured Pros: Fact or Fiction
Which player who is greatly outperforming his ADP will be able to sustain his performance and why?
Kyle Gibson has been a waiver wire mainstay for the better part of his career, but he's evolved into a legitimate fantasy asset thanks to his much-improved slider. He's pacing well ahead of his career marks for swinging strike percentage (12.2 in 2018 vs. 9.6 career) and his strikeout numbers are also well above what he typically sits at. There may be some slight regression coming thanks to a lucky BABIP so far, but the new-found strikeout ability seems very real and very sustainable.

Which player is destined for negative regression despite his early season success and why?
It brings me no joy to rain on Jed Lowrie's hit parade, but there are too many factors working in his favor right now that aren't sustainable. For example, his batting average is being buoyed by a .383 BABIP (career average is .309), and his HR/FB rate is an absurd 18.9% right now (career average is 6.9%). Simply put, a lot of his success so far in 2018 is unsustainable, and over the course of the season I think we'll see him come back down to Earth. This isn't to say Lowrie won't put up a solid year and be a legitimate fantasy asset, but to expect him to keep performing at this high a level isn't realistic.

What one player do you expect to positively regress after a slow start to the season?
Ian Kinsler has gotten off to a very rocky start in his first year with the Halos, but I think he's on the verge of rounding into form. He's suffered from some pretty miserable luck so far with a .218 BABIP, which is a far cry from his .277 career mark, and he's actually cut down on his strikeouts in 2018. He's currently striking out in just 9.2% of at bats, whereas his career average is 14.7%. He's making enough contact where the hits will start to fall soon, and once they do his counting stats will rise, particularly his run total hitting in front of the meat of the Angels' order.

Featured Pros: Bold Predictions
Tue, Mar 27
Featured Pros: Bold Predictions
Please give us one fantasy related bold prediction with the season about to start that owners should keep in mind.
The AL MVP will not be Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge or Giancarlo'll be Carlos Correa. The phenom was sidelined with a thumb injury last year, and wound up putting All-Star-caliber numbers up in limited time. He slugged 24 homers, scored 82 runs and knocked in 84 more in just 109 games. While it's an inexact science, that projects out to 36 homers, 122 runs and 125 RBI over the course of a 162-game season. Correa is still just 23 years old, and we haven't seen his ceiling yet.

Featured Pros: MLB Sleepers
Tue, Mar 13
Featured Pros: MLB Sleepers
What starting pitcher outside the top 85 in our ADP Composite do you like as a late round sleeper?
Dinelson Lamet is currently the 90th pitcher coming off draft boards, and could return value far higher than that for those sensible enough to invest in him. Lamet didn't fully break out last year thanks to an inflated ERA and less-than-stellar walk-rate (4.25 BB/9), but there is a ton to love about his skill set. Lamet has legitimate put-away stuff, backing up a 95-mph heater with an 86-mph slider and an occasional change-up that still hovers near 90. He rode this to an electric 10.94 K/9 rate in 2017 across 114.1 innings. Lamet should have any pitch counts to deal with in 2018, meaning that he should start at least 30 games (assuming his health), half of which will come at the cavernous, pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Lamet has big-time upside and his current ADP makes him a bargain in the late rounds.

What hitter outside the top 115 in our ADP Composite do you like as a late round sleeper?
Bradey Zimmer showed flashes of fantasy potential last year, but this could be the year he breaks out into a legitimate top-50 fantasy outfielder. Zimmer's debut season is unimpressive when viewed from above--he hit just .241 across 101 games, and didn't do much as far as OBP (.307) and SLG are concerned either (.385). However, he's currently slated to be the Indians everyday center fielder, and with most of a season under his belt I expect him to take a big leap forward. Zimmer will likely hit at the bottom of the lineup, but that functions more as "second lead-off" in 2018. He swiped 18 bags in his limited time last season, and if he's able to stay healthy for 140+ games he should have no problem swiping 30 bags. He also slugged eight homers in that time frame, and if given a full season I think it's fair to hope for 20 big flies in addition to the 30 steals. Finding a potential 20/30 player at his current ADP (OF125, 207 overall) can make your roster, and I'll be taking as many shots at Zimmer as I can in drafts this year.

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