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Rob Waziak

Fantasy Life

Featured Pros: Dynasty Undervalued Players
Thu, May 24
Featured Pros: Dynasty Undervalued Players
Which wide receiver is currently the most undervalued in our latest dynasty rankings?
When is it too soon to consider a rookie, who has yet to play a snap in the NFL, undervalued in dynasty? Less than a month after the Draft is probably a fair answer, sure, but I can't help but get excited when I see that Michael Gallup is ranked as a low-end dynasty WR4. Now, some may consider this opinion a product of "rookie fever" or "recency bias;" and I get that, but how can one not value immediate opportunity on top of baked-in dynasty potential? Dez Bryant is gone, Jason Witten is gone, Terrance Williams was recently arrested, and Allen Hurns is a deep threat for Dak Prescott, the 27th ranked quarterback in deep throw percentage last season. To me, even before the Williams news, Gallup was already primed to be Prescott's primary beneficiary. He's quick off the snap and can work the middle of the field, an area that Dallas must exploit to maintain Ezekiel Elliott and Prescott's run game effectiveness. Gallup should lead all Dallas receivers in yards this year and maintain a useful role on the offense for seasons to come. Put all of these pieces together, and it paints a relatively clear fantasy WR2 picture, not WR4.

Against the Spread: Super Bowl Picks
Fri, Feb 2
Against the Spread: Super Bowl Picks
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Pick: New England Patriots (-4.5)
After two weeks of op-eds and analysis that scrutinized matchups and DVOA trends, many of us will go into this game thinking it's a toss-up. In reality, while this game should be close heading into halftime, I can't see A) the Patriots having a tough time scoring points, or B) the Eagles keeping up with how many points the Patriots are scoring. I don't expect it to be a bad game, but I expect the Patriots to lead by at least seven for the majority of the game.

Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Over

Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 50

Against the Spread: Conference Round Picks
Fri, Jan 19
Against the Spread: Conference Round Picks
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+9)
A 9-point spread seems quite offensive to a Jaguars team that has spent a lot of time proving people wrong, myself included. Even if the Patriots were more consistent with stopping the run, I still wouldn't feel confident in giving them 9.

Game: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3)
I expect each team to lean heavily on the run early, yet expect them both to yield minimal results in the process. It's going to come down to a Foles versus Keenum shootout and I'd be a damn liar if I told you that I wasn't excited about it. The Vikings, notably their defense, are too hot for me to bet against at home and I like their chances of not only winning, but covering the spread as well.

Which game pick are you most confident with?
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

Against the Spread: Divisional Round Picks
Thu, Jan 11
Against the Spread: Divisional Round Picks
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
I'm not sold on either of these teams and don't expect it to be much of a game, but I like the Eagles chances at home. The Falcons would need a big Julio Jones day to get the job done, but Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby should shut that down.

Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: Tennessee Titans (+13.5)
I fully expect the Patriots to win, but Derrick Henry versus their mediocre run defense will be the Titans key towards covering a 13.5-point spread.

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
It's not the most optimal matchup for the Steelers, but Antonio Brown will play, Ben Roethlisberger wants revenge, and I just don't see Blake Bortles getting bailed out again.

Game: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
The Saints are probably happy facing the Vikings in the temperature-controlled U.S. Bank Stadium as opposed to meeting the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, and they have every right to be, as indoors works to the advantage of their high-powered offense. But playing indoors versus a Vikings defense (that I won't bet against) is far from satisfying. This should be a close game, and I fully expect Drew Brees to keep it close, but I lack the confidence in him keeping it close enough to cover the spread. The only way I see this game getting out of hand is if Michael Thomas exploits Xavier Rhodes, or the Saints defense exploits Case Keenum. Otherwise, this will be the game of the week.

Which game pick are you most confident with?
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Thu, Jan 4
Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Pick: Tennessee Titans (+8)
The inconsistencies that we've seen from the Chiefs since around Week 6 is enough for me to lose confidence in them as 8-point favorites. Sure, the Titans are no team to write home about, and the Chiefs have home-field advantage in what should be a very cold game, but this game should be a lot closer than the spread warrants.

Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
The Falcons come into this Wild Card week with something to prove. The bad news is, they just lost LG Andy Levitre to the IR with a torn tricep. This is a big deal and will surely rattle their game script. On the bright side, I'd expect this to be the game of the week, with both teams' offense and defense taking advantage of scoring opportunities. In the end, I expect the Rams to cover just enough in their win.

Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
I want the Bills to win. You want the Bills to win. Hell, even Shahid Khan might want the Bills to win, but it's just not going to happen. To make matters worse, LeSean McCoy is still day-to-day with his ankle injury and is far from a lock from playing on Sunday. As for the Jaguars, Leonard Fournette should be a massive workhorse in this game and should find pay dirt at least once. This game won't be pretty for Bills fans.

Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: Carolina Panthers (+6)
A formidable opponent at home, the Saints will rely on Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to test the Panthers top 3 defense against the run. Cam Newton will do his best to put the Panthers on his back, and he should find a way to bring this game down to the wire. Win or lose, the Panthers should cover.

Which game pick are you most confident with?
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)

Fantasy Playoffs: Bold Predictions
Thu, Dec 7
Fantasy Playoffs: Bold Predictions
Please give one bold prediction (player related) for the fantasy playoffs
Kenyan Drake will be a Top 5 RB for the fantasy playoffs. Over the next three weeks, Drake is scheduled to face the Patriots, Bills, and Chiefs-- three teams that have been very generous to opposing running backs and are surrendering an average of 17.50, 21.67, and 16.83 standard fantasy points to the position, respectively. Although the Dolphins are among the lower 25% of the league in plays per game with 60.9 and are likely to be playing from behind during these games, I believe Adam Gase and company will lean more heavily on Drake this late into a losing season, especially after his 23/120/1 performance versus the Broncos last week. If there were ever a time for the Dolphins to see what they have out of their third-round sophomore running back, the next three weeks would be an excellent time to do so.

Waiver Wire Rankings Week 12
Mon, Nov 20
Waiver Wire Rankings Week 12
How much are you willing to spend (FAAB %) on your favorite waiver wire target (or two) and why do like you him?
My top waiver wire targets will depend entirely on where my team lacks in depth and these targets are likely only going to consist of wide receivers and running backs. I won't focus on quarterbacks unless I am in a league where I can start more than one, and I won't focus on tight ends unless the one I already roster is hurt.

That being said, my top two targets at the wide receiver position are Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman, respectively. If I could use the depth at wide receiver, I would look to exhaust 100% of my remaining FAAB on one of the two. Both Doctson and Coleman have more favorable than not matchups through Week 16, are firmly entrenched to receive a fair share of their team's targets, and possess WR2 upside on any given week. Let your league mates compete over acquiring Josh Gordon, and target a wide receiver who's already scoring points instead.

As for running backs, my favorite target is Austin Ekeler. If I was set at wide receiver and desperately needed some running back depth, I would look at spending 100% of my remaining FAAB on Ekeler. While Ekeler may not deserve 100%, I feel there is too big of a tier drop between him and the other available running backs (Rod Smith, Devontae Booker, Corey Clement). Additionally, Ekeler will be a hot waiver wire target after proving to be effective in back-to-back weeks so it is unlikely that your league will allow him to be acquired for cheap.

For owners renting a D/ST in Week 12, what readily available option (under 40%) should they target and why?
Prior to their elite performance against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11, I advised a few people on how favorable of a schedule the Los Angeles Chargers had through Week 16. While many D/ST streamers will look to target the Tennessee Titans this week as they face the Colts, I think the sneaky play would be to ride the Chargers until your league's championship. While some of their upcoming matchups include those against high-scoring teams such as the Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, and Kansas City Chiefs, the tempo in these games should create advantageous opportunities for the Chargers to create turnovers. Week 13 versus the Browns and Week 16 versus the Jets doesn't hurt either.

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