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Who Should I Draft?

Aaron Judge or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Aaron Judge
CF,DH,RF - NYY
Aaron Judge
Expert
Recommendation
55%
Recommended by
28 of 51 experts
45%
Recommended by
23 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 34# 33
Best Rank# 12# 24
Worst Rank# 65# 51
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 51# 44
Best Rank# 40# 40
Worst Rank# 54# 52
   
Projections 
   
Runs8492
Home Runs2735
RBI9585
Stolen Bases34
Batting Average.288.263
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 27# 41
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 23# 27
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 33# 37
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 18# 44
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 32# 35
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 35# 51
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 32# 35
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 23# 27
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 27# 33
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 29# 34
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 33# 38
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 23# 30
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 41# 44
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 20# 32
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 12# 37
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 31# 39
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 38# 40
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 31# 35
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 29# 38
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 32# 34
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 18# 36
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 31# 34
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 25# 29
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 42# 50
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 28# 32
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 35# 41
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 32# 38
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 37# 41
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 41# 24
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 40# 26
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 65# 26
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 59# 27
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 34# 29
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 37# 30
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 44# 31
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 33# 31
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 49# 31
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 33# 32
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 42# 32
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 41# 33
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 38# 33
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 35# 34
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 41# 35
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 50# 35
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 37# 35
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 54# 36
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 44# 36
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 37# 36
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 37# 36
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 44# 37
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 49# 45
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Aaron Judge
CF,DH,RF - NYY
Aaron Judge
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats221101
   
Runs3423
   
Hits5826
   
Singles3414
   
Doubles133
   
Triples20
   
Home Runs99
   
RBI3322
   
Stolen Bases20
   
Caught Stealing01
   
Walks2010
   
Strikeouts3832
   
Batting Average.262.257
   
On Base Pct.329.336
   
Slugging Pct.462.555
   
On-base Plus Slugging.791.891
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Aaron Judge
CF,DH,RF - NYY
Aaron Judge
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats554476
   
Runs8492
   
Hits158123
   
Singles9566
   
Doubles3221
   
Triples31
   
Home Runs2735
   
RBI9585
   
Stolen Bases34
   
Caught Stealing13
   
Walks5678
   
Strikeouts101167
   
Batting Average.288.263
   
On Base Pct.354.368
   
Slugging Pct.502.528
   
On-base Plus Slugging.856.896
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Aaron Judge
CF,DH,RF - NYY
Aaron Judge
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Saturday's win over the Orioles after rolling his ankle but is feeling fine, Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star reports.
John Aubin
Sun, Oct 3rd
Aaron Judge went 1-for-4 with a walk and drove in a run on Sunday as the Yankees beat the Rays by a 1-0 score.
John Aubin
Sun, Oct 3rd
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-4 with a double and drove in a run on Thursday as the Blue Jays lost to the Yankees by a 6-2 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Oct 1st
Aaron Judge went 2-for-3 with two solo home runs and a walk Thursday in a win against the Blue Jays by a 6-2 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Oct 1st
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-3 with a walk, a double, and scored a run on Wednesday as the Blue Jays lost to the Rays by a 7-1 score.
John Aubin
Thu, Sep 23rd
Aaron Judge went 2-for-2 with a solo home run, two RBI, two runs scored, and a pair of walks during Tuesday's win over the Blue Jays.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 29th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk in Friday's 7-3 loss to Minnesota.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 18th
Aaron Judge went 0-for-3 with a walk and scored a run on Saturday as the Yankees beat the Red Sox by a 5-3 score.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 26th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in an 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday night.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 14th
Aaron Judge went 2-for-4 with a double, home run and drove in three on Tuesday as the Yankees defeated the Rangers by a 7-1 score.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 22nd
Notes 
 Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Judge missed about half of the regular season last year with a calf strain, though he still hit for plenty of power when he was in the lineup. He walked and struck out a bit less than usual, but trying to glean anything from a 28-game sample, given Judge's history, is silly. When he's in the lineup, you know you'll get a ton of power and runs scored with a passable average. The key is "when he's in the lineup," however, as injuries have forced Judge to miss significant time over the last three seasons. So long as you factor that into your draft price and select him as an OF2, you'll be happy with the production.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 
 At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros