Who Should I Draft?

Aaron Nola or Blake Snell (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
Expert
Recommendation
69%
Recommended by
41 of 59 experts
31%
Recommended by
18 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 7# 8
Best Rank# 3# 3
Worst Rank# 13# 16
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 25# 28
Best Rank# 23# 27
Worst Rank# 31# 30
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts210216
Wins1414
Saves00
ERA3.213.15
WHIP1.141.18
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-IL10
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 7# 12
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 10
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 5# 11
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 6# 7
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 6# 7
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 7
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 6# 9
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 6# 12
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 6# 8
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 3# 11
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 7# 10
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 6# 7
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 3# 14
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 6# 9
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 4# 7
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 6# 9
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 7# 9
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 7# 8
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 7# 9
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 8# 10
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 6# 8
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 9# 10
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 8# 9
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 5# 12
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 8
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 16
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 7# 8
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 6# 9
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 10# 11
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 4# 7
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 7# 9
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 9
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 6# 10
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 6# 9
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 10# 11
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 4# 9
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 6# 8
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 6# 7
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 4# 9
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 4# 5
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 8
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 7# 6
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 7# 6
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 8# 5
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 6
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 8# 6
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 8# 3
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 8
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 9# 7
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 7
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 9# 8
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 9# 8
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 9# 6
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 9# 8
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 10# 7
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 10# 5
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 7
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 10# 8
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 12# 9
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3331
   
Games Started3331
   
Innings Pitched212.2181.1
   
Wins1721
   
Losses65
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed149112
   
Earned Runs5638
   
Home Runs Allowed1716
   
Strikeouts224221
   
Walks5864
   
ERA2.371.89
   
WHIP0.970.97
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3232
   
Games Started3232
   
Innings Pitched196.5182.9
   
Wins1414
   
Losses98
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed169145
   
Earned Runs7064
   
Home Runs Allowed2019
   
Strikeouts210216
   
Walks5572
   
ERA3.213.15
   
WHIP1.141.18
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
News 
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed four earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings in Monday's loss to the Braves. The loss drops him to 12-5 on the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Sep 10th
Blake Snell (elbow) is scheduled to return on Tuesday versus the Dodgers.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Sep 13th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six over four innings in a no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday.
Mike Maher
Thu, Sep 5th
Blake Snell (elbow) is joining the Rays in California for their upcoming series against the Angels and Dodgers, MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM reports.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 13th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Sunday's loss to the Marlins. The loss drops him to 12-4 on the season.
Mike Maher
Mon, Aug 26th
Blake Snell is scheduled to throw two innings (or 30 pitches) for Triple-A Durham on Thursday.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Sep 10th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Tuesday's win over the Red Sox. The win brings him to 12-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 21st
Blake Snell (elbow) will make a rehab start Saturday for Triple-A Durham, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 6th
 Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Wednesday's win over the Cubs. The win brings him to 11-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 14th
Blake Snell (elbow) is set to play catch Monday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
John Aubin
Mon, Aug 12th
Notes 
 Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Snell may have posted the single greatest second half of any pitcher in the last 50 years with a 1.17 ERA, .155 BAA and 12.7 K/9. There is a chance he finishes as the #1 fantasy pitcher this season, but both Scherzer and Sale are safer bets because of their sustained reliability
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Snell experienced a massive breakout in 2018, establishing himself as a bonafide fantasy ace. It's fairly obvious that his 1.89 ERA is due for some regression, but the question is how much. He cut his walk rate, but it is still a bit higher than most of the top-tier starters, and his .241 BABIP allowed and 88 percent left-on-base percentage are highly unlikely to happen again. Pitching in the AL East also remain a tough assignment, although at least his home park is pitcher-friendly. Snell may see his ERA and WHIP rise to over 3.00 and 1.15, respectively, but he can still be a legit number one starter in 12-team mixed leagues.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Snell is going to regress. That's not necessarily a cause for panic, as his ERA could rise a full run and remain a resounding 2.89. His control (9.1 BB%) is lacking for a top-tier ace, but Tampa Bay's southpaw also permitted the lowest contact rate (66.6%) of all qualified starters while sporting the fourth-best swinging-strike rate (15.1%). He could approach 240-250 strikeouts with an innings uptick, so don't flea as long as his price factors in some regression.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros