Who Should I Draft?

Aaron Nola or Blake Snell (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
Expert
Recommendation
70%
Recommended by
39 of 56 experts
30%
Recommended by
17 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 7# 8
Best Rank# 3# 3
Worst Rank# 13# 16
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 25# 28
Best Rank# 23# 27
Worst Rank# 31# 30
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts210216
Wins1414
Saves00
ERA3.213.15
WHIP1.141.18
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 7# 12
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 10
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 5# 11
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 6# 7
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 6# 7
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 7
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 6# 9
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 6# 12
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 6# 8
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 3# 11
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 7# 10
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 6# 7
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 3# 14
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 6# 9
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 4# 7
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 6# 9
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 7# 9
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 7# 8
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 7# 9
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 8# 10
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 6# 8
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 9# 10
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 8# 9
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 5# 12
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 8
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 16
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 7# 9
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 7# 8
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 6# 9
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 10# 11
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 4# 7
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 7# 9
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 9
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 6# 10
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 10# 11
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 6# 8
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 4# 9
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 4# 5
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 8
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 7# 6
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 8# 5
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 6
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 8# 6
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 8# 3
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 8
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 9# 7
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 7
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 9# 8
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 9# 8
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 9# 6
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 9# 8
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 10# 7
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 10# 5
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 7
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 10# 8
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 12# 9
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3331
   
Games Started3331
   
Innings Pitched212.2181.1
   
Wins1721
   
Losses65
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed149112
   
Earned Runs5638
   
Home Runs Allowed1716
   
Strikeouts224221
   
Walks5864
   
ERA2.371.89
   
WHIP0.970.97
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3232
   
Games Started3232
   
Innings Pitched196.5182.9
   
Wins1414
   
Losses98
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed169145
   
Earned Runs7064
   
Home Runs Allowed2019
   
Strikeouts210216
   
Walks5572
   
ERA3.213.15
   
WHIP1.141.18
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
News 
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on six hits and two walks while striking out four over 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday.
Mike Maher
Sun, Jun 16th
Blake Snell allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits with three strikeouts and four walks across 3 1/3 innings during a no-decision against the Angels on Friday.
John Aubin
Sat, Jun 15th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on four hits and three walks while striking out seven over 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday.
Mike Maher
Mon, Jun 10th
Blake Snell pitched six innings of one-run ball giving up five hits and walking one while striking out seven batters in Sunday's win over the Red Sox.
John Aubin
Sun, Jun 9th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed six earned runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out five over 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the San Diego Padres on Monday. The loss was his first of the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Jun 4th
Blake Snell (3-5) took the loss Tuesday versus the Tigers by allowing six runs on seven hits across 4 1/3 innings. He struck out eight and walked two.
John Aubin
Wed, Jun 5th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed one earned run on four hits and three walks while striking out eight over seven innings in Wednesday's win over the St. Louis Cardinals. The win brings him to 6-0 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, May 29th
Blake Snell allowed two runs on six hits and two walks across six innings during Wednesday's extra-inning win over the Blue Jays. He struck out five but did not factor in the decision.
John Aubin
Thu, May 30th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on four hits and four walks over 5 1/3 innings in a win over the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. The win brings him to 5-0 on the season.
Mike Maher
Thu, May 23rd
Blake Snell gave up one run on four hits and three walks while striking out seven over 6 2/3 innings Friday in a no-decision against the Indians.
John Aubin
Sat, May 25th
Notes 
 Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Snell may have posted the single greatest second half of any pitcher in the last 50 years with a 1.17 ERA, .155 BAA and 12.7 K/9. There is a chance he finishes as the #1 fantasy pitcher this season, but both Scherzer and Sale are safer bets because of their sustained reliability
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Snell experienced a massive breakout in 2018, establishing himself as a bonafide fantasy ace. It's fairly obvious that his 1.89 ERA is due for some regression, but the question is how much. He cut his walk rate, but it is still a bit higher than most of the top-tier starters, and his .241 BABIP allowed and 88 percent left-on-base percentage are highly unlikely to happen again. Pitching in the AL East also remain a tough assignment, although at least his home park is pitcher-friendly. Snell may see his ERA and WHIP rise to over 3.00 and 1.15, respectively, but he can still be a legit number one starter in 12-team mixed leagues.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Snell is going to regress. That's not necessarily a cause for panic, as his ERA could rise a full run and remain a resounding 2.89. His control (9.1 BB%) is lacking for a top-tier ace, but Tampa Bay's southpaw also permitted the lowest contact rate (66.6%) of all qualified starters while sporting the fourth-best swinging-strike rate (15.1%). He could approach 240-250 strikeouts with an innings uptick, so don't flea as long as his price factors in some regression.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros