Who Should I Draft?

Aaron Nola or Walker Buehler (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
Expert
Recommendation
98%
Recommended by
58 of 59 experts
2%
Recommended by
1 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 7# 12
Best Rank# 3# 4
Worst Rank# 13# 39
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 25# 40
Best Rank# 23# 35
Worst Rank# 31# 44
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts210180
Wins1412
Saves00
ERA3.213.18
WHIP1.141.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 7# 9
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 9# 14
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 11
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 5# 12
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 6# 12
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 6# 14
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 14
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 6# 12
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 6# 17
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 8# 10
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 6# 12
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 3# 6
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 7# 12
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 6# 13
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 3# 4
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 6# 12
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 7# 14
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 8# 14
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 9
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 9# 21
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 4# 10
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 6# 12
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 7# 10
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 7# 12
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 12# 15
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 7# 13
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 8# 13
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 13
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 6# 11
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 9# 12
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 8# 18
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 5# 14
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 12
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 39
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 7# 17
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 10# 12
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 6# 18
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 10# 12
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 8# 12
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 12
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 4# 15
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 10# 12
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 7# 16
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 13
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 18
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 9# 12
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 9# 13
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 6# 15
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 6# 14
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 10# 16
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 4# 13
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 6# 12
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 6# 12
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 7# 13
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 4# 11
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 9# 12
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 4# 19
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 12
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 10# 9
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3324
   
Games Started3323
   
Innings Pitched212.2137.2
   
Wins178
   
Losses65
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves01
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed14995
   
Earned Runs5640
   
Home Runs Allowed1712
   
Strikeouts224151
   
Walks5837
   
ERA2.372.62
   
WHIP0.970.96
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3228
   
Games Started3228
   
Innings Pitched196.5162.2
   
Wins1412
   
Losses97
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed169133
   
Earned Runs7057
   
Home Runs Allowed2017
   
Strikeouts210180
   
Walks5552
   
ERA3.213.18
   
WHIP1.141.14
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
News 
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out four over five innings in Thursday's loss to the Atlanta Braves. The loss drops him to 12-6 on the season.
Mike Maher
Fri, Sep 20th
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced Walker Buehler will start on Saturday versus the Rockies.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Sep 21st
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed four earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings in Monday's loss to the Braves. The loss drops him to 12-5 on the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Sep 10th
Walker Buehler improved to 13-3 on Tuesday versus the Orioles, striking out 11 while spinning seven scoreless innings.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Sep 11th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six over four innings in a no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday.
Mike Maher
Thu, Sep 5th
Walker Buehler earned the win despite a shaky outing on Monday versus Colorado, giving up six runs on eight hits over five innings pitched.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Sep 3rd
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Sunday's loss to the Marlins. The loss drops him to 12-4 on the season.
Mike Maher
Mon, Aug 26th
Walker Buehler earned the win on Tuesday in San Diego, striking out 11 while tossing six scoreless frames.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Aug 28th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Tuesday's win over the Red Sox. The win brings him to 12-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 21st
Walker Buehler received a no-decision on Wednesday versus the Blue Jays, tossing seven scoreless innings while striking out eight.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Aug 22nd
Notes 
 Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
After tearing through the minors, Buehler pitcher pretty well for the Dodgers in the first half. Then a flip switched and he proceeded to become one of the top pitchers in baseball over the second half, posting a 2.03 ERA with 92 Ks and just a .165 BA allowed in 80 innings. Draft him accordingly
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
An easy Rookie of the Year pick any other year, Buehler boasted a 2.62 ERA, 152 strikeouts, and a 50.0% ground-ball rate in 137.1 spectacular frames for the Dodgers. That's not including a dominant World Series gem. The hype is thus growing exponentially, so much so that he's going around the same area as Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Noah Syndergaard. Such a steep price is a tough sell because the Dodgers -- who haven't let a single starter work 180 innings in the last three years -- will curate his workload with extreme caution. That's before considering arm discomfort that has made his Opening Day availability "a little far-fetched." Drafters are probably paying too much for 160 superb frames in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Buehler lived up to the hype and more in his first extended stint in the Big Leagues, posting a 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate across 137 1/3 innings. His peripherals suggest his ERA is due to rise into the low-3.00s, but make no mistake, he is the real deal. The bigger question is how many innings the Dodgers will let him throw this season. Last season's total represented a big jump, and the Dodgers are notorious for rotating six or seven starters in and out of their rotation, so it is best to expect Buehler to throw around 150 innings and take anything beyond that as a bonus.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros