Who Should I Draft?

Aaron Nola or Walker Buehler (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
Expert
Recommendation
98%
Recommended by
55 of 56 experts
2%
Recommended by
1 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 7# 12
Best Rank# 3# 4
Worst Rank# 13# 39
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 25# 40
Best Rank# 23# 35
Worst Rank# 31# 44
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts210180
Wins1412
Saves00
ERA3.213.18
WHIP1.141.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 7# 9
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 9# 14
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 11
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 5# 12
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 6# 12
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 6# 14
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 14
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 6# 12
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 6# 17
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 8# 10
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 6# 12
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 3# 6
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 7# 12
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 6# 13
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 3# 4
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 6# 12
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 7# 14
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 8# 14
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 9
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 9# 21
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 4# 10
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 6# 12
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 7# 10
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 7# 12
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 12# 15
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 7# 13
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 8# 13
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 13
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 6# 11
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 9# 12
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 8# 18
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 5# 14
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 12
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 39
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 7# 13
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 7# 17
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 10# 12
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 6# 18
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 10# 12
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 8# 12
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 12
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 4# 15
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 10# 12
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 7# 16
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 13
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 18
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 9# 12
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 9# 13
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 6# 15
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 10# 16
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 6# 12
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 4# 11
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 9# 12
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 4# 19
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 12
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 10# 9
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3324
   
Games Started3323
   
Innings Pitched212.2137.2
   
Wins178
   
Losses65
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves01
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed14995
   
Earned Runs5640
   
Home Runs Allowed1712
   
Strikeouts224151
   
Walks5837
   
ERA2.372.62
   
WHIP0.970.96
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3228
   
Games Started3228
   
Innings Pitched196.5162.2
   
Wins1412
   
Losses97
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed169133
   
Earned Runs7057
   
Home Runs Allowed2017
   
Strikeouts210180
   
Walks5552
   
ERA3.213.18
   
WHIP1.141.14
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Walker Buehler
SP - LAD
Walker Buehler
News 
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on six hits and two walks while striking out four over 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday.
Mike Maher
Sun, Jun 16th
Walker Buehler received a no-decision on Saturday versus the Cubs, hurling seven scoreless frames while striking out six and allowing just two hits.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 16th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on four hits and three walks while striking out seven over 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday.
Mike Maher
Mon, Jun 10th
Walker Buehler improved to 7-1 on Sunday versus the Giants, tossing seven shutout innings while striking out nine.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 9th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed six earned runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out five over 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the San Diego Padres on Monday. The loss was his first of the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Jun 4th
Walker Buehler picked up the win on Monday versus Arizona, striking out 11 over eight innings of one-run ball.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 4th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed one earned run on four hits and three walks while striking out eight over seven innings in Wednesday's win over the St. Louis Cardinals. The win brings him to 6-0 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, May 29th
Walker Buehler received a no-decision on Wednesday versus the Mets, giving up five runs on seven hits over five innings.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, May 30th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on four hits and four walks over 5 1/3 innings in a win over the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. The win brings him to 5-0 on the season.
Mike Maher
Thu, May 23rd
Walker Buehler improved to 5-1 on Friday versus the Pirates, throwing six innings of one-run ball while striking out six.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, May 25th
Notes 
 Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
After tearing through the minors, Buehler pitcher pretty well for the Dodgers in the first half. Then a flip switched and he proceeded to become one of the top pitchers in baseball over the second half, posting a 2.03 ERA with 92 Ks and just a .165 BA allowed in 80 innings. Draft him accordingly
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
An easy Rookie of the Year pick any other year, Buehler boasted a 2.62 ERA, 152 strikeouts, and a 50.0% ground-ball rate in 137.1 spectacular frames for the Dodgers. That's not including a dominant World Series gem. The hype is thus growing exponentially, so much so that he's going around the same area as Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Noah Syndergaard. Such a steep price is a tough sell because the Dodgers -- who haven't let a single starter work 180 innings in the last three years -- will curate his workload with extreme caution. That's before considering arm discomfort that has made his Opening Day availability "a little far-fetched." Drafters are probably paying too much for 160 superb frames in 2019.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Buehler lived up to the hype and more in his first extended stint in the Big Leagues, posting a 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate across 137 1/3 innings. His peripherals suggest his ERA is due to rise into the low-3.00s, but make no mistake, he is the real deal. The bigger question is how many innings the Dodgers will let him throw this season. Last season's total represented a big jump, and the Dodgers are notorious for rotating six or seven starters in and out of their rotation, so it is best to expect Buehler to throw around 150 innings and take anything beyond that as a bonus.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros