Who Should I Draft?
Carlos Carrasco or Corbin Burnes (2021)
Experts' Pick | ||
| Corbin Burnes SP,RP - MIL  | Carlos Carrasco SP,RP - NYM  | |
Expert |
55% Recommended by 11 of 20 experts |
45% Recommended by 9 of 20 experts |
| Rankings | ||
| ECR | # 24 | # 23 |
| Best Rank | # 16 | # 14 |
| Worst Rank | # 54 | # 58 |
| ADP | ||
| Composite | # 61 | # 69 |
| Best Rank | # 55 | # 58 |
| Worst Rank | # 78 | # 103 |
| Projections | ||
| Strikeouts | 179 | 196 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Saves | 0 | 0 |
| ERA | 3.65 | 3.57 |
| WHIP | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| Misc | ||
| Injury Alert | - | - |
| Expert Ranks | ||
| Andy Behrens Yahoo! Sports | # 16 | # 25 |
| Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports | # 25 | # 27 |
| Jeff Boggis Fantasy Football Empire | # 20 | # 21 |
| Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports | # 16 | # 18 |
| Heath Capps Fake Teams | # 25 | # 26 |
| Mike Maher FantasyPros | # 35 | # 58 |
| Pierre Camus RotoBaller | # 19 | # 31 |
| Carmen Maiorano FantasyPros | # 19 | # 27 |
| Nate Miller FantasyPros | # 22 | # 42 |
| Brad Camara FantasyPros | # 31 | # 35 |
| Joe Pisapia FantasyPros | # 18 | # 22 |
| Jake Ciely The Athletic | # 35 | # 14 |
| Ariel Cohen FanGraphs | # 32 | # 15 |
| Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack | # 25 | # 17 |
| Dan Harris FantasyPros | # 24 | # 19 |
| Nick Pollack Pitcher List | # 34 | # 19 |
| Nick Mariano RotoBaller | # 23 | # 20 |
| Andrew Gould FantasyPros | # 26 | # 20 |
| Brendan Tuma FantasyPros | # 24 | # 23 |
| Site Projections RotoChamp | # 54 | # 25 |
| Corbin Burnes SP,RP - MIL | Carlos Carrasco SP,RP - NYM | |
| 2020 Stats | ||
| Games Played | 12 | 12 |
| Games Started | 9 | 12 |
| Innings Pitched | 60.3 | 68.2 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Blown Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Holds | 0 | 0 |
| Hits Allowed | 37 | 55 |
| Earned Runs | 14 | 22 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 2 | 8 |
| Strikeouts | 88 | 82 |
| Walks | 24 | 27 |
| ERA | 2.11 | 2.91 |
| WHIP | 1.02 | 1.21 |
| Corbin Burnes SP,RP - MIL | Carlos Carrasco SP,RP - NYM | |
| 2021 Projections | ||
| Games Played | 28 | 29 |
| Games Started | 26 | 29 |
| Innings Pitched | 146.4 | 168.4 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Losses | 7 | 8 |
| Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Blown Saves | 0 | 0 |
| Holds | 0 | 0 |
| Hits Allowed | 125 | 150 |
| Earned Runs | 59 | 67 |
| Home Runs Allowed | 18 | 23 |
| Strikeouts | 179 | 196 |
| Walks | 56 | 51 |
| ERA | 3.65 | 3.57 |
| WHIP | 1.24 | 1.19 |
| Corbin Burnes SP,RP - MIL | Carlos Carrasco SP,RP - NYM | |
| News | ||
| Brewers catcher Omar Narvaez says Corbin Burnes' changeup looks way better than last year. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Sun, Feb 21st | Mets RHP Carlos Carrasco won’t pitch the first time through the rotation in the Grapefruit League. Brad Camara Sat, Feb 27th | |
| Carlos Carrasco was absent from the Mets' first full-squad workout on Monday due to a "non-injury related issue," per manager Luis Rojas. Jon Mathisen Mon, Feb 22nd | ||
| The Indians traded RHP Carlos Carrasco and SS Francisco Lindor to the Mets in exchange for INF Andres Gimenez, RHP Josh Wolfe, OF Isaiah Greene and SS Ahmed Rosario. Brad Camara Thu, Jan 7th | ||
| Notes | ||
| Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | Carrasco returned strong from his battle with leukemia in 2019 to post a 2.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2020. Pretty much everything was back to normal with Carrasco's production other than his walk rate, where he went from several years under 6% to a 9.6% mark in 2020. That's likely just the oddities of a shortened season, however, and now that Carrasco is with the Mets, his stock should only go up. Not only should the Mets provide him with a better chance at wins, but their infield defense should be above average and Carrasco will play in a more favorable park. In other words, it's all gravy for Carrasco, and he can be drafted as an SP2. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | |
| Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | We can completely write off Carrasco's 2019 season as the right-hander was going through a battle with leukemia. The 33-year-old heroically bounced back last summer, posting a 2.91 ERA to go along with a 1.21 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 64 innings. A 9.6% walk rate is mildly concerning, but Carrasco misses enough bats that he should still be viewed as a reliable SP2/3. The perception around him seems to be that he isn't durable, but Carrasco started 30 games three times from 2015-18. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | |
