Who Should I Draft?

Gerrit Cole or Aaron Nola (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Gerrit Cole
SP - HOU
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Expert
Recommendation
71%
Recommended by
42 of 59 experts
29%
Recommended by
17 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 5# 7
Best Rank# 4# 3
Worst Rank# 10# 13
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 27# 25
Best Rank# 24# 23
Worst Rank# 28# 31
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts237210
Wins1514
Saves00
ERA3.313.21
WHIP1.131.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 6# 7
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 9
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 4# 5
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 5# 6
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 5# 6
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 6# 8
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 6
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 5# 7
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 5# 6
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 5# 6
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 7# 8
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 8
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 6# 9
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 5# 6
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 5# 7
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 5# 7
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 6# 12
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 4# 7
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 6# 8
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 5# 10
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 5# 6
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 5# 9
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 4# 8
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 9# 13
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 6# 7
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 6# 10
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 6# 10
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 6# 10
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 5# 8
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 5# 9
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 7# 10
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 6# 7
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 6# 9
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 7# 9
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 7# 9
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 5# 6
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 6# 10
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 5# 6
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 5# 6
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 4# 7
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 6# 9
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 5# 6
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 5# 4
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 6# 4
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 6# 5
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 7# 6
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 7# 4
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 7# 6
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 7# 4
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 8# 6
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 8# 5
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 8# 3
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 8# 4
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 9# 4
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 9# 7
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 9# 6
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 9# 6
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 10# 4
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 10# 3
   
  Gerrit Cole
SP - HOU
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3233
   
Games Started3233
   
Innings Pitched200.2212.2
   
Wins1517
   
Losses56
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed143149
   
Earned Runs6456
   
Home Runs Allowed1917
   
Strikeouts276224
   
Walks6458
   
ERA2.882.37
   
WHIP1.030.97
   
  Gerrit Cole
SP - HOU
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3232
   
Games Started3232
   
Innings Pitched196.9196.5
   
Wins1514
   
Losses89
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed164169
   
Earned Runs7270
   
Home Runs Allowed2320
   
Strikeouts237210
   
Walks5955
   
ERA3.313.21
   
WHIP1.131.14
   
  Gerrit Cole
SP - HOU
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
News 
 Gerrit Cole (17-5) allowed four hits and two walks while striking out 11 through eight scoreless innings in Friday's 4-1 win over the Royals. He earned his 17th win of the season.
Brad Camara
Sat, Sep 14th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed four earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings in Monday's loss to the Braves. The loss drops him to 12-5 on the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Sep 10th
 Gerrit Cole (16-5) allowed one run on one hit with no walks while striking out 15 in Sunday's 21-1 win over the Mariners. He picked up his 16th win of the season.
Brad Camara
Mon, Sep 9th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six over four innings in a no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday.
Mike Maher
Thu, Sep 5th
 Gerrit Cole allowed one run on three hits and two walks while striking out 14 through six innings in Monday's 3-2 win over the Brewers. He did not factor into the decision.
Brad Camara
Tue, Sep 3rd
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Sunday's loss to the Marlins. The loss drops him to 12-4 on the season.
Mike Maher
Mon, Aug 26th
 Gerrit Cole allowed four runs on six hits while striking out 14 through six 2/3 innings in Wednesday's 8-6 win over the Rays. He did not factor into the decision.
Brad Camara
Thu, Aug 29th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Tuesday's win over the Red Sox. The win brings him to 12-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 21st
 Cole (15-5) allowed two hits and one walk while striking out 12 through seven scoreless innings in Thursday's 6-3 win over the Tigers. He picked up his 15th win of the season.
Brad Camara
Fri, Aug 23rd
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Wednesday's win over the Cubs. The win brings him to 11-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 14th
Notes 
 You can look at Cole's 3.50 second half ERA and assume he got worse over the season, but all the underlying numbers suggest he was actually better. Don't shy away from him because of a false fear of his risk. Rather, expect another 250+ strikeouts with plenty of wins and excellent ratios
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Cole was trending in a bad direction over his last couple years in Pittsburgh, but a move to Houston completely revived his career. As an Astro, Cole ditched an ineffective sinker and dramatically increased his spin rate on his fastball, and the result was a career-best 12.4 K/9 rate along with a shiny 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Cole doesn't have the extended track record of dominance that some of the other fantasy aces possess, but there is little reason to doubt that he can replicate his success in his second season in Houston.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 The Astros unlocked Cole's ace upside by tabling a middling sinker for more sliders and curveballs. He also revamped his fastball, which yielded a .268 wOBA after allowing a .334 wOBA in his last year with the Pirates. As a result, his strikeout and swinging-strike rates skyrocketed to 34.5 and 14.1%, respectively. His contact rate dropped eight points to 71.5, and he earned his 2.88 ERA with a 2.70 FIP and 2.91 SIERA. Trust the breakout and treat the strikeout artist on a title contender as a borderline top-five hurler alongside teammate Justin Verlander.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros