Who Should I Draft?

Gerrit Cole or Aaron Nola (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Gerrit Cole
SP - HOU
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Expert
Recommendation
73%
Recommended by
41 of 56 experts
27%
Recommended by
15 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 5# 7
Best Rank# 4# 3
Worst Rank# 10# 13
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 27# 25
Best Rank# 24# 23
Worst Rank# 28# 31
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts237210
Wins1514
Saves00
ERA3.313.21
WHIP1.131.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 6# 7
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 9
   
Staff Rankings
ScoutFantasySports
# 4# 5
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 5# 6
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 5# 6
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 6# 8
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 6
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 5# 7
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 5# 6
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 5# 6
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 7# 8
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 8
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 6# 9
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 5# 6
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 5# 7
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 5# 7
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 6# 12
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 4# 7
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 6# 8
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 5# 10
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 5# 6
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 5# 9
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 4# 8
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 9# 13
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 6# 7
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 6# 7
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 6# 10
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 6# 10
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 6# 10
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 5# 8
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 5# 9
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 7# 10
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 6# 7
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 6# 9
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 7# 9
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 7# 9
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 5# 6
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 6# 10
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 5# 6
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 6# 9
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 5# 6
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 5# 4
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 6# 4
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 6# 5
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 7# 6
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 7# 4
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 7# 4
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 8# 6
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 8# 5
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 8# 3
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 9# 4
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 9# 7
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 9# 6
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 9# 6
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 10# 4
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 10# 3
   
  Gerrit Cole
SP - HOU
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3233
   
Games Started3233
   
Innings Pitched200.3212.3
   
Wins1517
   
Losses56
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed143149
   
Earned Runs6456
   
Home Runs Allowed1917
   
Strikeouts276224
   
Walks6458
   
ERA2.882.37
   
WHIP1.030.97
   
  Gerrit Cole
SP - HOU
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3232
   
Games Started3232
   
Innings Pitched196.9196.5
   
Wins1514
   
Losses89
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed164169
   
Earned Runs7270
   
Home Runs Allowed2320
   
Strikeouts237210
   
Walks00
   
ERA3.313.21
   
WHIP1.131.14
   
  Gerrit Cole
SP - HOU
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
News 
 Gerrit Cole allowed nine runs (eight earned) on nine hits and three walks over 4 1/3 innings against the Rangers on Saturday. He struck out eight and took the loss, falling to 1-3.
Dan Harris
Mon, Apr 22nd
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on nine hits and one walk while striking out nine over 5 2/3 innings in a win over the Rockies on Saturday. The win brings him to 2-0 on the season.
Mike Maher
Sun, Apr 21st
 Gerrit Cole allowed two runs on four hits over six innings in Sunday's win over the Mariners. He struck out 11 and earned the win, moving to 1-2 on the season.
Dan Harris
Mon, Apr 15th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out six over four innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets on Monday.
Mike Maher
Tue, Apr 16th
 Gerrit Cole pitched seven strong innings and only allowed three earned runs. Cole also fanned six, walked three, gave up one home run and four hits.
Garett Thomas
Wed, Apr 10th
Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits and one walk while striking out three in a no-decision against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday.
Mike Maher
Tue, Apr 9th
 Gerrit Cole allowed three runs on four hits, three walks, and nine strikeouts through six innings pitched on Wednesday against the Rangers.
Kamran Hoda
Thu, Apr 4th
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola allowed six earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out two over three innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday.
Mike Maher
Wed, Apr 3rd
 Gerrit Cole allowed one earned run on five hits, no walks, and 10 strikeouts on Friday against the Rays.
Kamran Hoda
Sat, Mar 30th
Aaron Nola went six strong innings in Thursday's Opening Day win over the Braves. He struck out eight, walked five, and allowed two hits and an earned run.
Kari Thomas
Thu, Mar 28th
Notes 
 You can look at Cole's 3.50 second half ERA and assume he got worse over the season, but all the underlying numbers suggest he was actually better. Don't shy away from him because of a false fear of his risk. Rather, expect another 250+ strikeouts with plenty of wins and excellent ratios
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Cole was trending in a bad direction over his last couple years in Pittsburgh, but a move to Houston completely revived his career. As an Astro, Cole ditched an ineffective sinker and dramatically increased his spin rate on his fastball, and the result was a career-best 12.4 K/9 rate along with a shiny 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Cole doesn't have the extended track record of dominance that some of the other fantasy aces possess, but there is little reason to doubt that he can replicate his success in his second season in Houston.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 The Astros unlocked Cole's ace upside by tabling a middling sinker for more sliders and curveballs. He also revamped his fastball, which yielded a .268 wOBA after allowing a .334 wOBA in his last year with the Pirates. As a result, his strikeout and swinging-strike rates skyrocketed to 34.5 and 14.1%, respectively. His contact rate dropped eight points to 71.5, and he earned his 2.88 ERA with a 2.70 FIP and 2.91 SIERA. Trust the breakout and treat the strikeout artist on a title contender as a borderline top-five hurler alongside teammate Justin Verlander.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros