Who Should I Draft?

Luis Severino or Miles Mikolas (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
Expert
Recommendation
75%
Recommended by
44 of 59 experts
25%
Recommended by
15 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 26# 33
Best Rank# 7# 16
Worst Rank# 65# 88
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 68# 98
Best Rank# 55# 90
Worst Rank# 121# 105
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts178149
Wins1313
Saves00
ERA3.323.60
WHIP1.131.20
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL60-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 35# 41
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 27# 32
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 19# 30
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 16# 34
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 33# 34
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 34# 43
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 22# 53
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 27# 59
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 12# 34
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 19# 31
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 21# 27
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 13# 62
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 24# 34
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 15# 39
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 25# 44
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 20# 35
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 13# 33
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 31# 43
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 18# 20
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 24# 33
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 41
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 28# 39
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 34# 35
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 10# 88
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 18# 51
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 24# 32
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 11# 29
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 12# 26
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 19# 36
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 46
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 37# 40
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 27# 57
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 11# 38
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 28# 43
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 26# 32
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 38
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 7# 41
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 18# 30
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 24# 38
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 12# 48
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 29# 43
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 20# 22
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 13# 30
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 24# 35
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 23# 16
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 31# 27
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 31# 26
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 33# 32
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 33# 17
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 34# 26
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 39# 30
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 40# 28
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 41# 31
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 43# 27
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 43# 28
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 45# 23
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 50# 37
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 56# 27
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 65# 27
   
  Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3232
   
Games Started3232
   
Innings Pitched191.2201.3
   
Wins1918
   
Losses84
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed173186
   
Earned Runs7263
   
Home Runs Allowed1916
   
Strikeouts220146
   
Walks4629
   
ERA3.392.83
   
WHIP1.141.07
   
  Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2731
   
Games Started2631
   
Innings Pitched155.9191.7
   
Wins1313
   
Losses69
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed136192
   
Earned Runs5877
   
Home Runs Allowed1921
   
Strikeouts178149
   
Walks4037
   
ERA3.323.60
   
WHIP1.131.20
   
  Luis Severino
SP - NYY
Luis Severino
Miles Mikolas
SP - STL
Miles Mikolas
News 
 Luis Severino (shoulder) is scheduled to make his 2019 debut on Tuesday against the Angels.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Sep 12th
Miles Mikolas allowed one run on three hits with four walks across five innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. He struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 7th
 Luis Severino (lat) will throw 45-50 pitches over about three innings in his rehab appearance with Double-A Trenton on Friday, Greg Johnson of The Trentonian reports.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 6th
Miles Mikolas did not factor into the decision in the first game of Sunday's double header, allowing three runs on four hits and no walks over six innings. He struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 1st
 Luis Severino (lat) gave up two runs on three hits while striking out two over one inning in his rehab start Sunday for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
John Aubin
Mon, Sep 2nd
Miles Mikolas (8-13) earned the win Tuesday against the Brewers, allowing one run on four hits and no walks over six innings. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Aug 28th
 Luis Severino is expected to start for the Scranton Railriders on Sunday in his first rehab appearance of 2019 per Aaron Boone.
Brandon Plutner
Wed, Aug 28th
Miles Mikolas allowed five runs on eight hits and no walks while striking out five across six innings Thursday against the Rockies. He did not factor into the decision.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Aug 23rd
 Luis Severino (lat) could begin a rehab assignment on Sunday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
John Aubin
Tue, Aug 27th
Miles Mikolas (7-13) allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings in Saturday's 6-1 loss to the Reds. He took his 13th loss of the season.
Brad Camara
Sun, Aug 18th
Notes 
 A Cy Young Award contender though June, Severino imploded with a 5.20 ERA over the final three months. That inconsistency is perilous for a staff headliner, but he still finished 2018 with a 3.39 ERA, 2.95 FIP, and 220 strikeouts. Despite his start-by-start inconsistency, he has delivered on a macro level in consecutive seasons. However, he will miss at least all of April with a shoulder injury, Previously a viable top-10 candidate, he's now too risky to draft as a top-25 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Mikolas had an incredible season in his first year back from pitching in Japan, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while winning 18 games for the Cardinals. His weak strikeout rate is a bit of a detriment in roto leagues with low innings caps, but it isn't too big a deal in points leagues. That said, he's due for a bit of a correction in his BABIP and HRs allowed, which should cause his ERA to rise at least into the mid-3.00s. He can still be a useful fantasy pitcher in most formats, but could be overvalued.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 At first glance, Severino's 2018 numbers look just about as good as his excellent 2017 season, but the real story is that he was completely dominant in the first half and completely awful in the second half. That kind of inconsistency is a red flag, as is the rotator cuff inflammation that could cause him to miss the first month of the season or more. The sky is the limit for Severino in terms of long-term upside, but he's shaping up as a boom-or-bust pick for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
It's easy to dismiss Mikolas' breakout as a fluke. In his first season back from a three-year stint in Japan, the righty registered 18 wins and a 2.83 ERA in 200.2 innings despite collecting just 146 strikeouts. The ERA will at least rise to his 3.28 FIP, if not higher, but the 30-year-old isn't necessarily a full-blown bust waiting to happen. No qualified starter submitted a lower walk rate (3.6%) than Mikolas, who limited hard contact and induced a 49.3% ground-ball rate. Also, he's not some mid-80s junkballer pitching solely to contact. A 9.6% swinging-strike rate finished right above David Price on the leaderboard, so there's at least a path to 160 punchouts. He throws harder, but Mikolas' final line could resemble Kyle Hendricks in 2018 (199 IP, 3.44 ERA, 161 K).
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Over the past two seasons, only Scherzer, Sale, Verlander, deGrom and Kluber have a better ERA and more strikeouts than Severino, who is quickly becoming a true durable ace. He doesn't belong in that first tier, but may already lead the next group.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros