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Who Should I Draft?

Manny Machado or Nolan Arenado (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Expert
Recommendation
94%
Recommended by
48 of 51 experts
6%
Recommended by
3 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 14# 30
Best Rank# 11# 9
Worst Rank# 25# 60
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 20# 33
Best Rank# 16# 30
Worst Rank# 21# 42
   
Projections 
   
Runs9285
Home Runs3531
RBI10597
Stolen Bases102
Batting Average.278.274
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 32
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 12# 28
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 14# 31
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 19# 29
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 15# 34
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 14# 37
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 12# 31
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 12# 36
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 13# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 14# 41
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 11# 29
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 14# 29
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 13# 30
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 17# 60
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 12# 20
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 21# 41
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 13# 33
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 14# 26
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 14# 37
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 14# 19
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 14# 31
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 24
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 14# 47
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 13# 36
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 14# 32
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 16# 26
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 13# 41
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 14# 29
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 15# 29
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 13# 32
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 14# 38
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 15# 18
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 15# 29
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 17# 45
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 13# 41
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 25# 53
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 12# 29
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 14# 17
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 22# 31
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 13# 40
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 13# 37
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 11# 19
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 13# 14
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 14# 31
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 16# 51
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 13# 33
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 14# 29
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 13# 42
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 16# 15
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 17# 9
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 21# 20
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats224182
   
Runs4423
   
Hits6846
   
Singles3929
   
Doubles129
   
Triples10
   
Home Runs168
   
RBI4726
   
Stolen Bases60
   
Caught Stealing30
   
Walks2615
   
Strikeouts3720
   
Batting Average.304.253
   
On Base Pct.370.304
   
Slugging Pct.580.434
   
On-base Plus Slugging.950.738
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats587571
   
Runs9285
   
Hits162155
   
Singles9693
   
Doubles2929
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs3531
   
RBI10597
   
Stolen Bases102
   
Caught Stealing41
   
Walks6561
   
Strikeouts11395
   
Batting Average.278.274
   
On Base Pct.350.345
   
Slugging Pct.510.494
   
On-base Plus Slugging.860.839
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
News 
 Manny Machado went 3-for-4 on Saturday, hitting two singles and a double, scoring twice and driving in a run in the process.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 12th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in an 11-4 rout over the Mets on Wednesday.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Sep 15th
 Manny Machado was 2-for-4 on the day, hitting a double and a homer, driving in two runs and scoring once.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 5th
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Sunday.
Lucas Spence
Sun, Sep 12th
 Manny Machado was just 1-for-4 with a double on Wednesday. He also made a costly throwing error in the third inning and resulted in an extra run scoring.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Thu, Sep 2nd
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a triple, two runs scored, three RBI, and the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to give the Cardinals a 6-4 win over the Reds on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 11th
 Manny Machado was just 1-for-4 on Tuesday night, but his lone hit was a two-run homer that opened the scoring for San Diego in the fifth inning. He also drew a walk and struck out once.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Wed, Sep 1st
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a pair of RBI in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Lucas Spence
Tue, Sep 7th
 Manny Machado went 2-for-5 with two singles on Monday, scoring one run and striking out once.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Aug 31st
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-5 with a pair of home runs in a 15-4 blowout win over the Brewers on Friday night.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 4th
Notes 
 Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Being picked at his ceiling, which is always a no-no for me. Was all over him last season with his depressed ADP, now it is too high, and I will have very little shares.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 Machado rode a career-year all the way to a third place finish in the National League MVP voting last summer. He proved to be a massive bargain in fantasy drafts following a disappointing 2019 campaign. Perhaps we never should've overreacted to his first year in San Diego, as Machado remains a tremendous talent. The issue with drafting him in 2021 is that we're paying a premium now. He'll need to produce at a similar rate as last year to pay off his aggressive ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros