Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Javier Baez (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
Expert
Recommendation
96%
Recommended by
54 of 56 experts
4%
Recommended by
2 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 3# 18
Best Rank# 3# 6
Worst Rank# 10# 33
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 6# 18
Best Rank# 3# 16
Worst Rank# 7# 23
   
Projections 
   
Runs10087
Home Runs3830
RBI11396
Stolen Bases317
Batting Average.292.276
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 3# 15
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 3# 13
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 3# 15
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 3# 16
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 8# 10
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 3# 14
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 5# 16
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 4# 18
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 5# 16
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 20
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 8# 11
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 4# 19
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 5# 19
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 3# 9
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 5# 18
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 4# 20
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 5# 24
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 11
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 6# 17
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 6# 9
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 5# 21
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 4# 22
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 5# 19
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 8# 13
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 4# 29
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 4# 15
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 4# 18
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 4# 17
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 3# 16
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 6# 32
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 5# 7
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 23
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 3# 33
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 3# 19
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 3# 33
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 4# 21
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 6# 18
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 3# 21
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 3# 15
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 5# 22
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 5# 21
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 6# 15
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 4# 22
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 22
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 3# 14
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 7# 20
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 9# 11
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 3# 18
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 4# 22
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 5# 19
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 10# 29
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 4# 18
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 5# 19
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 3# 15
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 7# 6
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 8# 6
   
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats590606
   
Runs104101
   
Hits175176
   
Singles9793
   
Doubles3840
   
Triples29
   
Home Runs3834
   
RBI110111
   
Stolen Bases221
   
Caught Stealing29
   
Walks7329
   
Strikeouts122167
   
Batting Average.297.290
   
On Base Pct.374.326
   
Slugging Pct.561.555
   
On-base Plus Slugging.935.881
   
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats587582
   
Runs10087
   
Hits172161
   
Singles9193
   
Doubles3833
   
Triples45
   
Home Runs3830
   
RBI11396
   
Stolen Bases317
   
Caught Stealing26
   
Walks6633
   
Strikeouts113159
   
Batting Average.292.276
   
On Base Pct.363.315
   
Slugging Pct.561.507
   
On-base Plus Slugging.924.822
   
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
Javier Baez
2B,3B,SS - CHC
Javier Baez
News 
 Nolan Arenado went 0-for-5 with a walk and a run scored in the Rockies' 14-13 loss to the Padres on Father's Day.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Jun 17th
Javier Baez went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run and two runs scored in the Cubs'10-1 win over the Rockies' on Wednesday.
Elliott Baas
Thu, Jun 13th
 Arenado is not in the starting lineup Friday against the Padres.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Jun 14th
Javier Baez went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in the Cubs' 3-1 win over the Cardinals on Friday.
Elliott Baas
Sat, Jun 8th
 Nolan Arenado (arm) is playing third base and batting cleanup on Thursday versus the Padres.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Jun 13th
Javier Baez went 3-for-4 with a two-run home run in the Cubs' 6-3 win over the Rockies on Tuesday.
Elliott Baas
Tue, Jun 4th
 Arenado left the game after being hit in the forearm by Cole Hamels in the third inning of Wednesday's game against the Chicago Cubs.
James Bisson
Wed, Jun 12th
Javier Baez went 2-for-4 with a solo home run, a double, and three RBI in the Cubs' 8-1 win over the Angels on Monday.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 3rd
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-4 with a two-run homer in Monday's 6-5 win over the Cubs.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 11th
Javier Baez (heel) has returned to the Cubs' lineup on Sunday versus the Cardinals.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 2nd
Notes 
 Drafters know what they're getting in Arenado, who has batted no lower than .287 with at least 37 homers and 110 RBI in the last four years. He has played all but 16 games in those four seasons, making him a durable beacon of consistency worthy of a first-round selection. He signed an extension during the offseason, so investors no longer need to worry about a midseason trade removing him from Coors Field. A lack of steals is an unfortunate, but acceptable tradeoff for locking in bankable production at every other category.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Baez was excellent last year, hitting 34 homers with 21 steals, 101 runs and a league-leading 111 RBIs. While he is surely a star, every projection model sees those numbers regressing in 2019, especially his batting average which was propped up by a .347 BABIP
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Arenado might not feel like the sexiest pick at this stage because he isn't the hot new name, nor is he a five-category star, but there is nothing wrong with boring old reliability. He has averaged 40 homers, 125 RBIs and 100 runs while batting .297 over the last four seasons. Don't let him slip past this 5th pick in your drafts.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Baez fits into a similar category of player as Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story: shortstops coming off of 30-20 seasons who have sky-high upside but also a bit of risk. The biggest risk for Baez is that his elevated strikeout rate leads to some regression in last season's .290 batting average. He also may not run quite as much after stealing just three bases in the second half last year. Still, Baez should be able to at least produce a .270-30-15 kind of season, which would be enough to keep him among the elite fantasy options at shortstop.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 When it comes to elite production that you can bank on year in and year out, look no further than Arenado. Some people will quibble that his lack of steals makes him a four-category player, but that hasn't stopped Arenado from producing four straight seasons as a top-10 overall hitter in standard 5x5 leagues. The only other knock on Arenado is that he is much better in the thin air of Coors Field, but fresh off a record-breaking contract extension, fantasy owners no longer need to worry about the possibility of a mid-season trade out of Colorado. You can write it down in marker that he will provide around 40 home runs, 100 runs, 110 RBIs, and a batting average in the .290 range, making Arenado a nice bargain at his average draft position (ADP) of 6.8.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Despite recording the second-worst swinging strike (18.2%) and outside-swing (45.5%) rates, Baez managed to hit .290. Among 17 hitters with a contact rate of 70.0% or lower in at least 300 plate appearances, Aaron Judge was the only one besides Baez to bat above .266. That's a better baseline for 2019. Given his middling 4.5 walk %, he might not reach base enough to steal another 21 bases. Don't pay full freight for an encore.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 End of Tier 1
Michael Florio - Fantrax