Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or J.D. Martinez (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
J.D. Martinez
LF,RF,DH - BOS
J.D. Martinez
Expert
Recommendation
63%
Recommended by
35 of 56 experts
38%
Recommended by
21 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 3# 4
Best Rank# 3# 2
Worst Rank# 10# 21
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 6# 5
Best Rank# 3# 4
Worst Rank# 7# 5
   
Projections 
   
Runs10098
Home Runs3840
RBI113116
Stolen Bases34
Batting Average.292.305
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 3# 4
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 3# 5
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 3# 6
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 3# 4
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 3# 4
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 5# 6
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 8# 12
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 7
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 8# 13
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 4# 5
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 3# 17
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 4# 5
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 5# 7
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 6# 9
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 6# 18
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 4# 6
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 4# 5
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 3# 4
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 6# 7
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 5# 6
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 5
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 3# 4
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 3# 5
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 3# 8
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 3# 5
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 3# 4
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 7# 21
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 4# 6
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 9
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 3# 4
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 3# 4
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 4# 5
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 5# 6
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 5# 6
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 3# 8
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 4# 3
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 4# 3
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 4# 3
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 4# 3
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 4# 3
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 4# 3
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 5# 4
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 5# 3
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 4
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 5# 4
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 5# 4
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 5# 4
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 5# 3
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 5# 4
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 6# 5
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 6# 3
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 7# 4
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 8# 5
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 8# 2
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 9# 6
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 10# 6
   
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
J.D. Martinez
LF,RF,DH - BOS
J.D. Martinez
2018 Stats 
   
   
At Bats590569
   
Runs104111
   
Hits175188
   
Singles97106
   
Doubles3837
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs3843
   
RBI110130
   
Stolen Bases26
   
Caught Stealing21
   
Walks7369
   
Strikeouts122146
   
Batting Average.297.330
   
On Base Pct.374.402
   
Slugging Pct.561.629
   
On-base Plus Slugging.9351.031
   
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
J.D. Martinez
LF,RF,DH - BOS
J.D. Martinez
2019 Projections 
   
   
At Bats587544
   
Runs10098
   
Hits172166
   
Singles9191
   
Doubles3833
   
Triples42
   
Home Runs3840
   
RBI113116
   
Stolen Bases34
   
Caught Stealing21
   
Walks6664
   
Strikeouts113146
   
Batting Average.292.305
   
On Base Pct.363.378
   
Slugging Pct.561.593
   
On-base Plus Slugging.924.971
   
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
J.D. Martinez
LF,RF,DH - BOS
J.D. Martinez
News 
 Nolan Arenado went 0-for-5 with a walk and a run scored in the Rockies' 14-13 loss to the Padres on Father's Day.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Jun 17th
J.D. Martinez went 1-for-5 with his lone hit being a solo home run as the Red Sox beat the Orioles on Saturday by a 7-2 score.
John Aubin
Sun, Jun 16th
 Arenado is not in the starting lineup Friday against the Padres.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Jun 14th
J.D. Martinez went 3-for-4 with two home runs, three RBI and two walks in Friday's 13-2 win over the Orioles.
John Aubin
Sat, Jun 15th
 Nolan Arenado (arm) is playing third base and batting cleanup on Thursday versus the Padres.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Jun 13th
J.D. Martinez went 2-for-3 with a walk in Monday's 4-3 extra-innings loss to Texas.
John Aubin
Tue, Jun 11th
 Arenado left the game after being hit in the forearm by Cole Hamels in the third inning of Wednesday's game against the Chicago Cubs.
James Bisson
Wed, Jun 12th
J.D. Martinez (back) has returned to Boston’s lineup for Monday’s game versus the Rangers.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Jun 10th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-4 with a two-run homer in Monday's 6-5 win over the Cubs.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Jun 11th
Red Sox manager Alex Cora says the team is hopeful J.D. Martinez doesn't need to end on the IL with back spasms.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Jun 9th
Notes 
 Drafters know what they're getting in Arenado, who has batted no lower than .287 with at least 37 homers and 110 RBI in the last four years. He has played all but 16 games in those four seasons, making him a durable beacon of consistency worthy of a first-round selection. He signed an extension during the offseason, so investors no longer need to worry about a midseason trade removing him from Coors Field. A lack of steals is an unfortunate, but acceptable tradeoff for locking in bankable production at every other category.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Martinez is a rare first-round hitter who rarely runs, but he'll make up for it in every other spot. While the 31-year-old probably won't win another batting title at .330, he's a .307 hitter since 2014's breakout who has exceeded .300 in three straight years. He boasts an MLB-high .655 slugging percentage in the past two seasons with 88 long balls. Last season, he placed within the 97th percentile or better in exit velocity, hard-hit%, xAVG, xSLG, and xWOBA. Hitting in the middle of Boston's lineup also makes him a strong bet to drive in and score over 100 runs. Limited fielding reps helped him stay healthy, but he played enough OF (25 games) to maintain fantasy eligibility, making him a strong four-category star.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Arenado might not feel like the sexiest pick at this stage because he isn't the hot new name, nor is he a five-category star, but there is nothing wrong with boring old reliability. He has averaged 40 homers, 125 RBIs and 100 runs while batting .297 over the last four seasons. Don't let him slip past this 5th pick in your drafts.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
It's funny how one healthy season can help you forget that a player missed 40+ games in three of the past four seasons. While Martinez has a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown, he is also a bit riskier than many of the other first round picks so proceed soberly.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 When it comes to elite production that you can bank on year in and year out, look no further than Arenado. Some people will quibble that his lack of steals makes him a four-category player, but that hasn't stopped Arenado from producing four straight seasons as a top-10 overall hitter in standard 5x5 leagues. The only other knock on Arenado is that he is much better in the thin air of Coors Field, but fresh off a record-breaking contract extension, fantasy owners no longer need to worry about the possibility of a mid-season trade out of Colorado. You can write it down in marker that he will provide around 40 home runs, 100 runs, 110 RBIs, and a batting average in the .290 range, making Arenado a nice bargain at his average draft position (ADP) of 6.8.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
There is no better bet in baseball to hit .300 with 40+ home runs than Martinez. He's now accomplished that feat two years in a row, hit at least 38 homers in three of the last four seasons, and hit over .300 in four of the last five. Still in the prime of his career and in a great hitting environment in Boston, a repeat performance looks likely.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 End of Tier 1
Michael Florio - Fantrax