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Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Max Muncy (2021)

Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
Experts' Pick
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Max Muncy
1B,2B,3B - LAD
Max Muncy
Recommended by
51 of 51 experts
Recommended by
0 of 51 experts
ECR# 30# 64
Best Rank# 9# 38
Worst Rank# 60# 93
Composite# 33# 96
Best Rank# 30# 80
Worst Rank# 42# 101
Home Runs3130
Stolen Bases23
Batting Average.274.242
Injury Alert--
Expert Ranks 
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 62
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 81
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 31# 67
Site Projections
# 29# 90
Grey Albright
# 34# 72
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 37# 63
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 31# 76
Beast Dome
# 9# 38
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 36# 81
Fantasy Team Advice
# 39# 75
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 41# 77
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 29# 69
Andrew Gould
# 29# 65
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 30# 59
Rudy Gamble
# 60# 65
Wayne Bretsky
# 20# 48
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 41# 69
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 33# 64
Chris Meaney
# 26# 58
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 37# 63
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 19# 63
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 31# 62
Mario Mergola
# 24# 63
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 47# 66
Nick Mariano
# 36# 63
Mike Maher
# 32# 48
Michael Waterloo
# 26# 56
Donkey Teeth
# 41# 85
Dan Harris
# 29# 41
Pierre Camus
# 29# 56
Andrew Seifter
# 32# 63
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 38# 62
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 18# 66
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 15# 61
Mick Ciallela
# 29# 70
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 45# 78
Ariel Cohen
# 41# 83
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 53# 82
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 29# 59
Brendan Tuma
# 20# 60
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 17# 66
Carmen Maiorano
# 31# 75
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 40# 80
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 37# 48
Nate Miller
# 19# 45
Brad Camara
# 14# 65
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 31# 65
Corbin Young
# 51# 70
Chris Clegg
# 33# 66
Joe Pisapia
# 29# 63
Nicklaus Gaut
# 42# 93
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Max Muncy
1B,2B,3B - LAD
Max Muncy
2020 Stats 
At Bats182203
Home Runs812
Stolen Bases01
Caught Stealing00
Batting Average.253.192
On Base Pct.304.331
Slugging Pct.434.389
On-base Plus Slugging.738.720
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Max Muncy
1B,2B,3B - LAD
Max Muncy
2021 Projections 
At Bats571486
Home Runs3130
Stolen Bases23
Caught Stealing11
Batting Average.274.242
On Base Pct.345.362
Slugging Pct.494.472
On-base Plus Slugging.839.834
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Max Muncy
1B,2B,3B - LAD
Max Muncy
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in an 11-4 rout over the Mets on Wednesday.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Sep 15th
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says Max Muncy suffered a right knee contusion during Wednesday's game against Arizona.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Sep 16th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Sunday.
Lucas Spence
Sun, Sep 12th
First baseman Max Muncy went 2-for-3 with a double, a home run, two RBI, three runs scored, and a walk as the Dodgers beat the D-Backs 8-4 on Tuesday.
Jon Mathisen
Wed, Sep 15th
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a triple, two runs scored, three RBI, and the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to give the Cardinals a 6-4 win over the Reds on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 11th
Max Muncy went 1-for-4 on the day, hitting a two-run homer to open the scoring and make it 2-0 Dodgers.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sat, Sep 11th
 Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a pair of RBI in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Lucas Spence
Tue, Sep 7th
First baseman Max Muncy went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and two runs scored as the Dodgers lost to the Cardinals 5-4 on Wednesday.
Jon Mathisen
Wed, Sep 8th
 Nolan Arenado went 2-for-5 with a pair of home runs in a 15-4 blowout win over the Brewers on Friday night.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 4th
First baseman Max Muncy went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and a strikeout as the Dodgers came from behind to beat the Braves 4-3 on Wednesday.
Jon Mathisen
Thu, Sep 2nd
 On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Muncy's batting average dropped to a ridiculously low .192 last year, and there were two culprits. The first is that his line drive rate plummeted from 23.5% to just 13.8%, leading to far more ground balls. The second was that he simply didn't hit the ball as hard. His hard hit rate and average exit velocity fell, and his HR/FB rate dropped seven points. Muncy dealt with finger and elbow injuries, so those may account for his poor season, but even then he was on pace to reach the 30-homer plateau for a third straight year. Muncy has position eligibility galore, and at the weak second base position, so continue to draft him in the middle rounds as a cheap source of power who adds value thanks to his ability to play all around the infield for your fantasy team.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
Muncy's finger was hit by a pitch during summer camp. While he was able to play through it, the issue was a pain-tolerance one that bothered him all year long. The hard-hit rate and average exit velocity worsened, though his walk rate ranked in the 93rd percentile. This data backs up the idea that Muncy was simply playing through something. Adding to his bounce back case is a .203 BABIP from 2020, well below his career mark of .266.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
 Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros