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Who Should I Draft?

Tyler Mahle or Carlos Carrasco (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Expert
Recommendation
53%
Recommended by
27 of 51 experts
47%
Recommended by
24 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 58# 56
Best Rank# 16# 36
Worst Rank# 183# 109
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 116# 173
Best Rank# 96# 162
Worst Rank# 179# 215
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts147155
Wins98
Saves00
ERA3.484.44
WHIP1.131.28
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 52# 57
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 67# 109
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 29# 71
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 16# 72
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 36# 52
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 35# 52
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 19# 82
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 55# 61
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 32# 72
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 26# 72
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 59# 64
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 70# 76
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 57# 62
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 28# 77
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 26# 65
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 30# 50
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 48# 97
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 62# 68
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 48# 72
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 56# 65
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 28# 65
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 59# 103
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 42# 68
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 56# 57
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 41# 81
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 70# 80
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 25# 68
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 80# 36
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 47# 36
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 166# 49
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 56# 51
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 107# 51
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 74# 52
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 63# 52
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 99# 53
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 137# 53
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 65# 55
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 79# 55
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 68# 55
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 183# 55
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 65# 56
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 77# 56
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 84# 58
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 62# 59
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 96# 60
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 70# 61
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 63
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 76# 63
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 93# 64
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 81# 66
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 119# 68
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1210
   
Games Started129
   
Innings Pitched68.248.3
   
Wins32
   
Losses42
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed5535
   
Earned Runs2221
   
Home Runs Allowed86
   
Strikeouts8260
   
Walks2721
   
ERA2.913.97
   
WHIP1.211.17
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2228
   
Games Started2127
   
Innings Pitched125.4143.4
   
Wins98
   
Losses69
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed107136
   
Earned Runs4971
   
Home Runs Allowed1724
   
Strikeouts147155
   
Walks3448
   
ERA3.484.44
   
WHIP1.131.28
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
News 
 Carlos Carrasco allowed four runs (one earned) on seven hits, one walk, and four strikeouts in five innings. The 34-year-old was forced to work much harder than he should have been by the Mets' sloppy fielding. They won 9-4 Tuesday and are four games behind the Braves in the NL East and three and a half games behind the Reds and Padres for the final Wild Card spot.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Wed, Sep 8th
Tyler Mahle (12-6) took the loss Tuesday against the Pirates, allowing three runs on six hits in 4.1 innings. He walked three and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 22nd
 Carlos Carrasco allowed three runs on four hits, one walk, and five strikeouts in five and one-third innings. The Mets won 4-3 Tuesday and are winners of four straight. They're 66-67 this season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Fri, Sep 3rd
Tyler Mahle (12-5) earned the win Thursday against the Pirates, tossing six shutout innings while allowing five hits and one walk. He struck out four.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 16th
 Carlos Carrasco allowed two runs on three hits, zero walks, and five strikeouts in seven innings pitched. He left the game tied, and the Mets blew the game in the eighth inning, losing 3-2. They're 61-66 this season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Fri, Aug 27th
Tyler Mahle did not factor into the decision Friday against the Cardinals, allowing two runs on four hits in six innings. He walked two and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
 Carlos Carrasco allowed three runs on five hits, one walk, and six strikeouts in five innings. The Mets lost 3-2 and are now 60-62 this season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Sat, Aug 21st
Tyler Mahle (11-5) earned the win Saturday against the Tigers, allowing four runs on six hits across five innings. He walked five and struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
 Carlos Carrasco allowed six runs on six hits, one walk, and three strikeouts in two innings.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Mon, Aug 16th
Tyler Mahle (10-5) took the tough-luck loss Sunday against the Marlins, allowing two runs on four hits across seven innings. He walked two and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Aug 29th
Notes 
 Carrasco suffered a serious hamstring strain in mid-March which is likely to keep him out 6-8 weeks. It's a devastating blow to the veteran who returned strong from his battle with leukemia in 2019 to post a 2.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2020. There was plenty to like about Carrasco in New York, including that the Mets will provide him with a better chance at wins, their infield defense should be above average, and Carrasco will play in a more favorable park. But at this point, he's nothing more than a bench starter for your fantasy team given his injury.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Mahle's solid 2020 season (3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) will probably slip under the radar, but there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about him with a guaranteed spot in the Reds rotation. His strikeout rate jumped to 30% on the back of a 4.4% increase in his swinging strike rate, and he had just a .188 expected batting average against, top 10% in the league. The biggest change for Mahle was that he brought back a slider that he had shelved entirely in 2019, and batters hit just .180 against the pitch with a .249 wOBA. He could do well to cut down on his walks a bit, but still, as a fifth starter for your fantasy team, there's plenty of potential for profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 We can completely write off Carrasco's 2019 season as the right-hander was going through a battle with leukemia. The 33-year-old heroically bounced back last summer, posting a 2.91 ERA to go along with a 1.21 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 64 innings. A 9.6% walk rate is mildly concerning, but Carrasco misses enough bats that he should still be viewed as a reliable SP2/3. The perception around him seems to be that he isn't durable, but Carrasco started 30 games three times from 2015-18.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Tyler Mahle broke out in 2020, posting a 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 60 strikeouts across 47 2/3 innings. He added a slider to his pitch repertoire and upped his strike percentage to 29.6. The 26-year-old signed a one-year, $2.2 million contract with the Reds avoiding arbitration. Mahle will be a fixture in the Reds rotation and prove his breakout in 2020 was no fluke. He could be a mid-round bargain and a pitcher fantasy managers should be targeting in their upcoming drafts.
Brad Camara - FantasyPros