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Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Pete Alonso (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Pete Alonso
1B,DH - NYM
Pete Alonso
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Expert
Recommendation
60%
Recommended by
30 of 50 experts
40%
Recommended by
20 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 32# 34
Best Rank# 21# 12
Worst Rank# 55# 65
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 46# 51
Best Rank# 43# 40
Worst Rank# 53# 54
   
Projections 
   
Runs9084
Home Runs4227
RBI10595
Stolen Bases23
Batting Average.250.288
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 28# 40
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 35# 38
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 33# 34
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 35# 54
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 23# 27
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 21# 65
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 31# 32
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 32# 35
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 31# 50
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 35# 37
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 38# 41
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 26# 27
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 35# 49
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 27# 33
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 34# 41
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 36# 49
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 34# 41
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 34# 44
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 30# 31
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 35# 38
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 31# 37
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 36# 44
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 26# 29
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 34# 37
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 27# 41
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 41# 42
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 40# 59
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 22# 28
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 33# 35
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 34# 35
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 32# 12
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 34# 18
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 28# 18
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 39# 20
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 34# 23
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 39# 23
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 32# 23
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 35# 25
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 35# 29
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 34# 31
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 41# 31
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 34# 32
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 34# 32
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 35# 32
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 37# 33
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 35# 33
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 34# 33
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 39# 37
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 40# 37
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 55# 42
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Pete Alonso
1B,DH - NYM
Pete Alonso
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats208221
   
Runs3134
   
Hits4858
   
Singles2634
   
Doubles613
   
Triples02
   
Home Runs169
   
RBI3533
   
Stolen Bases12
   
Caught Stealing00
   
Walks2420
   
Strikeouts6138
   
Batting Average.231.262
   
On Base Pct.326.329
   
Slugging Pct.490.462
   
On-base Plus Slugging.817.791
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Pete Alonso
1B,DH - NYM
Pete Alonso
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats550554
   
Runs9084
   
Hits136158
   
Singles6895
   
Doubles2532
   
Triples13
   
Home Runs4227
   
RBI10595
   
Stolen Bases23
   
Caught Stealing11
   
Walks6756
   
Strikeouts166101
   
Batting Average.250.288
   
On Base Pct.331.354
   
Slugging Pct.526.502
   
On-base Plus Slugging.857.856
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Pete Alonso
1B,DH - NYM
Pete Alonso
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
News 
 Pete Alonso went 1-4 with two RBIs, one run scored, and one walk.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Thu, Apr 22nd
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-3 with one RBI, a run scored, and two walks in a 6-3 win over the Red Sox on Wednesday.
John Aubin
Thu, Apr 22nd
 Pete Alonso went 2-7 across both games of the doubleheader with a single, home run, run scored, two RBIs, and five strikeouts.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Sun, Apr 18th
Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-3 with a solo home run and a second run scored in the first game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Royals.
John Aubin
Sun, Apr 18th
 Pete Alonso went 0-3 with one strikeout and one RBI.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Thu, Apr 15th
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-5 with a double and a home run in Thursday's 7-5 loss in Kansas City.
Andy Zimmerman
Fri, Apr 16th
 Pete Alonso had six total bases with one walk, one strikeout, two RBIs, and scored two runs. He's OPSing 1.375 through the first week of the season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Wed, Apr 7th
Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-4 with two walks, a stolen base, three RBI and a run scored Saturday in a victory over the Angels by a 15-1 score.
John Aubin
Sun, Apr 11th
  Vladimir Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run and three RBI in an extra-inning loss to the Angels on Thursday by a 7-5 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Apr 9th
Notes 
 Alonso didn't quite follow up his incredible 2019 season last year, but he certainly wasn't terrible. The vast majority of his underlying statcast data and metrics looked similar, and he mostly just didn't make quite as consistently hard contact as he did the previous year. Alonso is never going to help you in batting average, but you should expect 40 home runs and 100 RBI this year and for the foreseeable future. With such a high floor, Alonso makes a more than adequate starting first baseman in mixed leagues.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 As good a bet as anyone to lead the majors in homeruns, Alonso is a very, very solid 1B option. May not fit the build for every team, but he is someone you build around in your draft.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
  At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros