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Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Yordan Alvarez (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Yordan Alvarez
LF,DH - HOU
Yordan Alvarez
Expert
Recommendation
73%
Recommended by
37 of 51 experts
27%
Recommended by
14 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 34# 39
Best Rank# 12# 23
Worst Rank# 65# 64
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 51# 77
Best Rank# 40# 57
Worst Rank# 54# 91
   
Projections 
   
Runs8477
Home Runs2732
RBI9594
Stolen Bases33
Batting Average.288.284
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 34# 44
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 27# 28
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 23# 28
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 33# 40
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 18# 39
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 32# 42
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 35# 47
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 50# 64
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 32# 47
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 37# 47
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 23# 41
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 41# 43
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 27# 34
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 29# 41
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 33# 42
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 23# 37
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 41# 46
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 33# 36
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 20# 33
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 12# 27
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 33# 52
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 31# 41
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 37# 59
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 44# 47
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 44# 57
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 31# 48
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 29# 35
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 32# 48
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 18# 38
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 31# 48
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 25# 52
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 37# 40
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 41# 44
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 28# 46
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 35# 39
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 35# 45
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 32# 37
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 37# 35
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 37# 34
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 38# 30
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 38# 34
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 40# 38
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 41# 36
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 42# 35
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 42# 38
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 44# 27
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 49# 39
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 49# 23
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 54# 31
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 59# 38
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 65# 28
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Yordan Alvarez
LF,DH - HOU
Yordan Alvarez
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats2218
   
Runs342
   
Hits582
   
Singles341
   
Doubles130
   
Triples20
   
Home Runs91
   
RBI334
   
Stolen Bases20
   
Caught Stealing00
   
Walks200
   
Strikeouts381
   
Batting Average.262.250
   
On Base Pct.329.333
   
Slugging Pct.462.625
   
On-base Plus Slugging.791.958
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Yordan Alvarez
LF,DH - HOU
Yordan Alvarez
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats554457
   
Runs8477
   
Hits158129
   
Singles9568
   
Doubles3228
   
Triples31
   
Home Runs2732
   
RBI9594
   
Stolen Bases33
   
Caught Stealing11
   
Walks5662
   
Strikeouts101130
   
Batting Average.288.284
   
On Base Pct.354.370
   
Slugging Pct.502.562
   
On-base Plus Slugging.856.933
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Yordan Alvarez
LF,DH - HOU
Yordan Alvarez
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Saturday's win over the Orioles after rolling his ankle but is feeling fine, Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star reports.
John Aubin
Sun, Oct 3rd
Slugger Yordan Alvarez was the first of four Astros to hit a home run against the Athletics on Saturday. He finished the day 1-for-4 with the three-run blast but also struck out once. Houston ultimately defeated Oakland by a score of 10-4.
Andersen Pickard
Sun, Oct 3rd
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-4 with a double and drove in a run on Thursday as the Blue Jays lost to the Yankees by a 6-2 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Oct 1st
Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez went 1-for-4 with a single against the Rays on Tuesday. He also struck out twice in the effort. Houston ultimately defeated Tampa Bay by a score of 4-3.
Andersen Pickard
Wed, Sep 29th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-3 with a walk, a double, and scored a run on Wednesday as the Blue Jays lost to the Rays by a 7-1 score.
John Aubin
Thu, Sep 23rd
Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez went 3-for-4 with a single, double, and two-run homer against the Angels on Wednesday evening. He scored twice and totaled three RBI along the way. Houston ultimately defeated Los Angeles by a score of 9-5 in 12 innings.
Andersen Pickard
Thu, Sep 23rd
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk in Friday's 7-3 loss to Minnesota.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 18th
Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez finished 1-for-5 with a two-run homer against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. He also stranded four runners on base in the effort. Houston ultimately fell to Arizona by a score of 6-4 in 10 innings.
Andersen Pickard
Sun, Sep 19th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in an 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday night.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 14th
Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez went 2-for-5 with a solo homer and two-run homer against the Rangers on Monday. He also walked once and scored four times in the effort. Houston ultimately defeated Texas by a score of 15-1.
Andersen Pickard
Tue, Sep 14th
Notes 
 Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Alvarez missed almost all of last season and had surgery on both of his knees, which is obviously worrisome for his 2021 outlook. His 2019 performance was incredibly impressive on every level (50 homers, 149 RBI in 143 games between the majors and minors), and he offers a high batting average floor to boot. It's all about health with Alvarez, so monitor his performance this spring. If he shows he's remotely healthy, his ADP is going to skyrocket.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 
 At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros