He's destined to end up in Cooperstown, but Trout has been plagued by injuries in what should be the prime of his career. He hasn't played more than 140 games in a season since 2016, and a calf injury last year limited him to just 117 at-bats. If he can stay healthy, he'll hit a bunch of bombs and make major contributions in runs, RBI and batting average. Trout once stole 49 bases, but that was a long time ago, and the SBs might not come back now that he's in his 30s. You're bound to get an injury discount on Trout, and with good reason - the risk of continued health problems is very real. But if you're lucky enough to get 150+ games out of him, you're going to turn a big profit.

This former uber-prospect didn't disappoint in his first full MLB season, delivering the goods in five categories. There's room for more, as Tucker played 140 games and was typically slotted in the bottom half of the Astros' batting order. Tucker's contact rate is on the rise, he makes plenty of hard contact, and his flyball rate is what you're looking for in a power hitter. Tucker will probably never bee among the stolen base leaders, but he swiped 14 bags last year and has 20 SB upside. Tucker might just be scratching the surface of his talents. He figures to go somewhere close to the first-round/second-round turn, but he's destined to be a perennial first-rounder.

The young White Sox slugger missed more than three months after straining his hip flexor trying to leg out an infield single but went nuclear upon his return, batting .350 with 12 HRs and 35 RBI over his final 43 games. Robert runs, too, with 15 SBs in 124 career games. There's legitimate 30-30 potential here, and it's not hard to imagine Robert producing a 40 HR season at cozy Guaranteed Rate Field. A ridiculous .394 BABIP fueled last year's .338 batting average, so there's bound to be some major recoil in that category. Health is a concern as well, as Robert experienced leg tightness in the playoffs. There's a lot to like here, but a second-round ADP seems a bit rich for a 24-year-old who has yet to play a full season.

Power is his calling card, and Alvarez didn't disappoint in that department last year, mashing 33 HRs with 104 RBI. He had a healthy .277 batting average in 2021 and has a career mark of .290, so the power doesn't come at the expense of BA. The power peripherals are outstanding - he's in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. There could be a 50 HR season lurking here. Alvarez has just one SB in 233 career games, and he's had surgery on both knees. But if those granddad knees hold up, you're likely to be please with your return on investment.

All rise! His Honor enjoyed a season of reasonably good health in 2021 and posted a career-high .269 BA to go along with 39 HRs, 98 RBI and 89 runs. His 71% contact rate was the best of his career, and naturally his power peripherals were through the roof. No one punishes baseballs quite like Judge. Health is always a concern, and he doesn't run much, but the power skills should age well as this 6-7, 282-pound brute enters his 30s.

It would normally make sense to be wary of a late-ish bloomer who has a breakout year at age 28. Hernandez established new career highs in basically every offensive category last year, batting .296, belting 32 HRs, driving in 116 runs, scoring 92 times and doubling his previous season high in stolen bases with 12. But the peripheral numbers back it all up. Statcast absolutely loves Hernandez, even backing up the SB breakout by putting him in the 85th percentile for sprint speed. He'll bat cleanup in a stacked Blue Jays lineup and should get ample opportunities to drive in runs. A full repeat of his 2021 numbers might be a stretch, but Hernandez should be able to come close.

The city of Baltimore hasn't seen such an unexpectedly high HR total since Brady Anderson smacked 50 homers in 1996. Mullins had hit seven HRs in 374 career at-bats entering 2021. He cleared the fence 30 times last year and added 30 stolen bases for good measure. Mullins played the 2020 season with an undiagnosed case of Crohn's disease, which may have prevented us from seeing the "real" Cedric Mullins. Some pullback on the HR total is probably inevitable, but the speed and other plate skills should remain intact. Looks slightly overpriced at a third-round ADP.

This late bloomer has been fantasy gold for the last five years. Merrifield stole 40 bases last season at age 32. Durability is a big plus: Merrifield hasn't missed a game in the last three years. But there are some worrisome signs of slippage. His line drive rate has been steadily dropping over the last few seasons, and he hit only two home runs last season from July 1 on. Merrifield has been a terrific value for years, but it's possible he'll be slightly overpriced in 2022 drafts.

Get a season of reasonably good health out of Buxton and you're likely to run a profit, probably a big one. But what are the chances he'll play 150 or more games? In the five non-COVID years that he's been on the Twins' Opening Day roster, Buxton has averaged 81.6 games played and 271.2 at-bats. In 2021, Buxton missed 39 games with a strained hip, then broke his hand after being hit with a pitch in his third game back, causing him to miss another month. When healthy, Buxton will steal a lot of bases and score plenty of runs. He's added power, too, and he batted .306 over 61 games last year. Still only 28, Buxton has upside galore, but the risk level here is enormous.

Quad and knee injuries limited Springer to 78 games in his first season with the Blue Jays, but he mashed when healthy, with 22 HRs, 50 RBI and 59 runs in just 299 at-bats. Springer has consistently posted batting averages in the .260s or higher during his career, and he'll steal a handful of bases for you. Batting leadoff with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Teoscar Hernandez behind him, Springer has a great chance to score 100 or more runs. He'll turn 33 in August, but he seems to be aging gracefully. Springer is a solid investment.

Give the ascending slugger a mulligan for an ill-fated 2021 season. Jimenez ruptured a pectoral tendon in a spring training game and didn't come back until July 26. His surface stats in his 55 games were decent - 10 HRs, 37 RBI a .249 average - but Jimenez didn't live up to the promise he showed in the shortened 2020 season, when he had 14 HRs, 41 RBI and a .296 average. Expect a rebound and substantial power numbers. Speed isn't part of the package - he's played 232 career games and still hasn't stolen a base - but that's the only weakness here. It's only a matter of time before Jimenez gives us a 40 HR season.

The playoff hero of 2020 provided a satisfying encore by being named 2021 AL Rookie of the Year, though there was some slippage. After belting 10 HRs in 20 playoff games two seasons ago, Arozarena hit 20 homers in 141 games last season and struck out 170 times. A modest flyball rate and ordinary Statcast numbers suggest that Arozarena probably won't provide elite power numbers. Last year's 37% hit rate fueled a .274 batting average that may not be sustainable. On the bright side, he had 20 SBs on 30 attempts. There are a multiple paths to value here, but still, Arozarena is a high-profile player likely to be overdrafted.

If he stays relatively healthy, Stanton is probably going to contend for the home run crown. But that's a huge "if," obviously. Stanton enjoyed two relatively healthy seasons in 2018-2019, played 41 combined games in 2019-2020, and managed to play 139 games last year with only one stay on the DL for a quad issue. Statcast numbers show that he's still one of the games top sluggers, and he should have better luck in RBIs and runs than he had last season, when he had 97 and 64, respectively. Stanton doesn't run, but he holds his own in batting average. There's a lot of risk here, particularly with Stanton now well into his 30s, but the lengthy injury history almost guarantees a discount in drafts.

In 2021, Lowe became a full-time player for the first time in his career and responded with 39 HRs, 99 RBI and 97 runs. He batted only .247 last year and struck out 167 times in 615 plate appearances. Lowe has also struggled against lefties throughout his career. But Lowe's first-half/second-half splits were eye-opening. He was batting .208 at the All-Star break; Lowe batted .292 after the break and dramatically reduced his strikeout rate without sacrificing any power. If the second-half adjustments stick, Lowe might actually be able to improve upon his breakout season.

Walsh was outstanding in his rookie year, blasting 29 home runs and batting .277. His expected batting average (.257) and slugging percentage (.436) lagged significantly behind his actual numbers, but his 114.8 MPH maximum exit velocity was in the top six percent of MLB and suggests his power is real. Walsh couldn't hit a lick against lefties last year, as he batted just .170 against them with a .565 OPS. But, even if he loses time against them, his success against righties should be more than enough to keep him relevant. Buy him as a 30-homer bat but take at least 10 to 20 points off his batting average from last year.

Mountcastle fully arrived in his age-24 season, shaking off a slow start to finish with 33 HR, 89 RBI, 77 runs and a reasonable .255 batting average. His .333 BA in the abbreviated 2020 season was a mirage, but Mountcastle's power is legit, with a .232 ISO in 2021 and home runs on 20% of his flyballs. There's a lot of swing-and-miss to Mountcastle's game, which could make him a BA risk, and he won't steal many bases. But the power profile is enticing, and it's a nice bonus that Mountcastle has dual eligibility as an outfielder and first baseman.

Bell had a horrid .464 OPS in April, likely because his timing was off after missing time because of a COVID-19 diagnosis. But once he found his footing, he was everything that Nationals hoped he would be. He batted .277 with an .887 OPS in the second half, and even played plenty of outfield so Washington could keep his bat in the lineup even with Ryan Zimmerman playing well. His walk percentage and strikeout rate largely returned to their pre-2020 levels, and he got better and better as the season went along. With Zimmerman now retired and the DH in the National League, Bell's bat should remain in the lineup nearly every day, and the presence of Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz should offer him plenty of RBI opportunities. He's not a fantasy superstar, but he's a capable starter at first base for your fantasy team.

On the one hand, Meadows largely bounced back from the horror story that was the abbreviated 2020 season. His strikeout rate normalized, his power returned, and his playing time stabilized. The glaring exception was that he could not correct his sudden struggles against lefties. In 2019, Meadows slashed .275/.316/.521 against southpaws. Last year, he slashed just .198/.270/.293 against them. Even if Meadows's overall numbers are passable, it seems unlikely that a team like the Rays are going to let a player who is merely an average defender continue to keep an everyday job when he's virtually useless against left-handed throwers. That would still leave Meadows on the strong side of a platoon, but if he does begin to sit more regularly, his counting stats will take a hit, and fantasy managers should be aware of that before they select him in their drafts.

Gurriel cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 18.9%, but that's pretty much where the good news ends. His quality of contact dropped significantly (at least in some part due to a knee injury he played through), resulting in a sharp downturn in both his home runs and slugging percentage. Playing for a ridiculously strong Toronto offense will keep his counting stats relatively afloat, and he may bat higher in the order with Marcus Semien in Texas now. And he's entering his age-28 season so perhaps there's a power bump coming. But Gurriel looks much more like a player who you draft because he won't hurt you, not because he'll help you a ton.

Renfroe has always had power but put it all together last year for Boston and became one of their most reliable and dependable bats.He cut his strikeout rate to just 22.7% and although he was still much better against lefties, he made major gains against righties such that he went far beyond potentially being placed in a platoon situation. Moving to the Brewers can only help his power, so bank on 30 home runs with helpful counting stats everywhere but steals.

Verdugo is a reliable option for batting average, as he's batted at least .289 in three straight seasons. He doesn't have a ton of pop or speed, though he'll at least chip in with home runs and steals, and because he'll bat near the top of the Red Sox lineup, should be an asset in runs scored. Think of a poor man's version of Michael Brantley in his prime and that's what Verdugo will give you, and that's plenty valuable for fantasy.

Kelenic's season was shaping up to be an all-time disaster for a prospect, but a fairly strong final month, during which he hit seven homers and slashed .248/.331/.524, salvaged things a bit. He still batted just .180 on the year and struck out 28.1% of the time, but there's reason to believe he can put his year in the rear view mirror and start fresh. Kelenic has an advanced approach, and could pretty easily put up a 20-20 season without batting an eye if everything breaks right. With a stronger Mariners lineup batting behind him, Kelenic should be someone to target in fantasy drafts given his potential and strong close to the 2021 season.

 

Garcia came out of absolutely nowhere last season to become one of just five players to hit at least 31 home runs and steal at least 16 bases. His success largely came early in the season, as he blasted 11 home runs in May with a .312 batting average before, as most fantasy managers expected, pitchers adjusted. The adjustment hit Garcia hard, as he slashed just .211/.256/.370 in the second half, though he stole seven bases over the final month of the season to cushion the blow. The issue for Garcia is the same that plagues most largely unknown hitters who put up huge hot streaks - he lacks plate discipline. His strikeout rate (31.2%) and walk rate (5.1%) were both in the bottom six percent of MLB, and both were due largely to the fact that he simply swings too much at pitches outside of the zone (39.7 O-Swing%, ninth-worst in the league). The Rangers have a much-improved lineup and perhaps Garcia will improve in his second year, but unless he drastically changes his approach, his numbers are going to have a hard cap on them.

Straw is your quintessential no-power, all-speed player. He hit four home runs last year and that's not going to be anomaly given his incredibly low hard-hit rate. But he stole 30 bases and ranked in the 96th percentile in sprint speed. He'll lead off for the Guardians this season and given their likely futility on offense, it's reasonable to expect Straw to try to swipe a bag at every chance he gets. If you're covered in power, he's a fine pick, but don't have any dreams of a home run surge now or anytime in the future.

Baddoo wasn't expected to contribute much in the majors last year, but he came on strong and ultimately played in 124 games, hitting 13 home runs and stealing 18 bases while batting .259. The speed is legtimate, as he ranked in the 91st percentile in sprint speed last season, but he's going to significantly improve on his .523 OPS against lefties if he's going to find success this year. Baddoo should begin the year batting leadoff in front of an improved Tigers lineup, so if he can just maintain his performance against righties and improve against lefties somewhat, a 20-20 season coul be in the cards. If not, then he'll likely bat in the lower third of the order and lose much of his value.

Kirilloff had a poor 2021 season, ultimately succumbing to wrist surgery to fix an injury that has reportedly bothered him off and on for a few years at this point. Long-term, there's plenty of reason for optimism given his pedigree and strong minor league numbers. But for this year, he's more of a middling outfield filler. His quality of contact and home park aren't favorable enough to lead to a major outburst in power, and his surrounding lineup isn't strong enough to offer a favorable environment for counting stats. Kirilloff probably won't hurt you in batting average and he'll hit about 20 home runs, but players like that are a dime a dozen in redraft leagues. Take him late as a filler, but still view him as a target in keeper and dynasty formats.

Adell has massive power but hit just four home runs in 35 games in the majors last year. But his strikeout rate was a very manageable 22.9% after it was an incredibly bloated 41.7% in 2020, and that generally bodes well for a prospect. He worked on a swing change this offseason and looks much, much more comfortable in the spring. As fantasy managers know, prospect growth is not linear, so Adell's mediocre performance in the majors to this point shouldn't give you much pause. You'll have to pay more for him than his numbers suggest you should, be he's got the type of upside that should make the price worth it.

Hays finally made good on his prospect pedigree, hitting 22 home runs and topping 140 combined runs and RBI. It wasn't perfect - he walked only 5.3% of the time and his hard-hit rate and exit velocity were mediocre. But he had a strong close to th season with 12 home runs and 35 RBI over the final two months of the season. Just 26 years old, there's plenty of room for growth, though the new dimensions in Camden Yards may keep his power in check a bit. Buy him at his 2021 numbers and understand there's plenty of room for growth.

It was a tale of two halves for Rosario, as he slashed .259/.306/.367 in the first half and .309/.339/.457 in the second half. The end result was a good one, as Rosario wound up being a contributor in four of the five rotisserie categories, and is trending up heading into 2022. The biggest issue at this point is the extreme weakness of the Guardians' lineup, which is projected to be one of the worst in baseball. That's going to significantly cut into Rosario's counting stats and depress his value. But the options to help your batting average and generally contribute everywhere are few and far between, so Rosario should be no worse than a high-end bench player for your team.

Laureano has 28 games remaining on his suspension for PEDs, and given the dearth of talent on the A's, most fantasy managers are likely not going to target him during their drafts. But he's one of just a handful of players who are capable of putting up a 25-15 line over the course of a full season, and his eight steals over the first month last year showed how he could likely steal 25 if he really wanted to. There's not a ton to love otherwise about his offensive game, and his batting average probably won't help very much. But if you can deal with his absence for the first month of the season, he'll offer a decent power-speed combo, albeit one without many other helpful stats.

Hernandez had an extremely solid year batting atop the Red Sox lineup, hitting 20 home runs and tallying 84 runs scored. Very little about his underlying batted ball data and overall metrics were different - he just stayed healthy and became an everyday player. His batting average won't help you and he offers nothing in the stolen base category. But he should be a major asset in runs scored and contribute in homers and RBI. With the addition of Trevor Story, he'll likely be the everyday center fielder, but he'll retain his second base eligibility from last year, further strengthening his value. Hernandez won't win you your league, but he's the type of player you can leave in your lineup all year long.

Kepler's expected stats suggest he got pretty unlucky last year, as they looked a lot like his 2019 season where he hit 38 home runs and batted .252. On the plus side, he did swipe 10 bases, the first time he had reached double digits in that category in his career. His true outcome likely lies somewhere between his 2019 season and last year's numbers, and he's more of a .240, 20-homer bat. The bigger problem this year is that the Twins' lineup likely won't be strong, and his counting stats will take a hit. Kepler can fill in for you, just don't rely on him as a starter.

Bader has always been known as a defensive outfielder, but his offensive game picked up last year. He cut his strikeout rate six points from his career mark and set a career best in home runs (16) and RBI (50), Bader has never had more than 427 plate appearances in a season, but he could easily steal 20 bases if stays healthy, as he ranks in the 97th percentile in sprint speed. Consider him akin to Tommy Pham around his prime in a best-case scenario, and given his ADP, he's a solid investment.

Vaughn's rookie season was a little unfair, as he was thrust into the outfield despite little experience there when Eloy Jimenez suffered a serious injury in the spring. His 15 home runs in 127 games as a rookie showed his potential, but his 21.5% strikeout rate was a bit higher than projected. He'll likely see at-bats from several positions this year, as he plays outfield, first base, and DH, and it's likely that an advanced college bat such as his will take a step forward this year. Expect a good 20% increase on all his numbers across the board, which should make him startable, but not quite a fantasy superstar.

Santander dealt with a litany of injuries last year to his lower body, so the fact that he still popped 18 home runs in 100 games is rather impressive. He's admitted he is not 100% healthy after last year, which is obviously concerning with the season on the verge of beginning. Nevertheless, given Santander's ADP, he's well worth drafting. He's got 25 home runs in his bat easily if he can remain healthy, and his defense is so strong that he'll remain in the lineup even if he struggles offensively to start as he finds his footing. He rarely walks and so his runs scored total will never help you, but he's fine as a cheap outfield bat that always gets overlooked in fantasy.