This is your annual reminder to ensure you know how Shohei Ohtani's pitcher/hitter eligibility is treated in your league(s), as it can make a world of difference in fantasy value. What it will not make a difference in, however, is his incredible talent on the field. His fifth season in MLB saw a slight decline in hitting stats (34 HR, 95 RBI, .273/.356/.519) (and yes, that was a decline). However, he threw 166 innings, struck out 219 batters, and maintained a 2.33 ERA and 1.01 WHIP to finish fourth in Cy Young voting. The Angels have stated they plan to pitch Ohtani every sixth day as regularly as possible, meaning he could conceivably get 28-30 starts in addition to 600 plate appearances. On top of all of that, he is in his walk year and will be auditioning for what will surely be a huge contract. Yes, he clogs your Utility spot, and it can be frustrating to manage him in weekly leagues where he can only start as one or the other. But if you play on a platform where he is counted as both at all times, he is the fantasy 1.1, no matter who they give the real-life MVP to.

Gerrit Cole demonstrated some decline in 2022, allowing 1.48 HR/9 on his way to a 3.50 ERA and a career-high total in homers allowed with 33. There is your knock on the 32-year-old. The rest of his numbers remained stellar. He led the league in strikeouts with 257 of them in 200 2/3 innings, kept his WHIP at 1.02, and carried an xFIP of 2.77, meaning his ratios were slightly inflated. On top of that, the Yankees led MLB in team defensive runs saved, so anything FIP doesn't take into consideration should still be positive. Cole will typically pitch into the sixth inning, meaning he qualifies for wins and quality starts more often than not, and the Yankees should win an abundance of games in 2023. He is not the clear-cut SP1 he's been in years past, but he should still be one of the first off the board.

Once again, Jacob deGrom is the pitcher on the board with the wildest range of outcomes possible. If someone could guarantee his health, an argument could be made to take him in the first round. Instead, we have reality, and the reality is that deGrom started only 11 games and pitched 64 1/3 innings, both of which are lower numbers than in the truncated 2020 season. In those 64 innings, he struck out 102 batters using his elite arsenal of pitches. Batters did hit him a little harder when they did make contact, and he had a career-high 1.26 HR/9, but the rest of his Statcast profile still shines bright red. In the offseason, the Texas Rangers handed the 34-year-old a five-year, $185 million contract to anchor their staff. Globe Life Park is a better hitter's park than City Field, but when it comes to deGrom, the only factor that impacts his fantasy value is availability.

Two IL stints in 2022 are the only thing suppressing McClanahan's draft value in 2023. The 25-year-old pitched 166 1/3 innings, struck out 194 batters, and blessed fantasy managers with a 2.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. His Statcast page could be the official symbol of Valentine's Day, with the only non-red stat being his fastball spin rate. Because it's the Rays, it's hard to predict how many innings or how deep into ball games they will let him go, but as long as he is healthy, he could anchor a fantasy staff coming out of the fourth or fifth round. Expect a little over 10.0 K/9, an ERA closer to 3, a microscopic WHIP from the third-year player, and the latest entry into the Tampa Bay pitching echelon.

Dylan Cease finished second to Justin Verlander for 2022 AL Cy Young and had an outstanding year for a wildly disappointing White Sox team. He threw 184 innings, going 14-8 while striking out 227 batters with an ERA of 2.20 and a WHIP of 1.11. Sounds great for a 27-year-old who could be a fantasy anchor for your pitching staff, right? Well... Underneath that sparkling 2.20 ERA was an xFIP of 3.50 and an extremely low BABIP of .260. These metrics should give you pause as you face the decision to draft him in the 2nd/3rd round of your draft. If he gets his walks and home runs under control, he could live up to that ADP, but be wary of drafting an "if" guy that high.

Emmanuel Clase led MLB with 42 saves last season, cementing his status as an elite closer and giving fantasy managers a reason to pay for saves in 2023. He pitched 72 2/3 innings, striking out 77, and maintaining a microscopic 1.36 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. He is in the 90th percentile and above in nine of 12 categories on Statcast, and even some slight regression in his overall numbers still leaves him in "elite" territory. Clase will turn 25 before the season and is locked into the closer role in Cleveland, making him and Edwin Diaz the clear top two at the position heading into 2023.

Carlos Rodon celebrated turning 30 by signing a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees, and it's not hard to see why New York was willing to pay him. In 2022, Rodon threw a career-high 178 innings, struck out 237 batters, and ended with a sparkling ERA of 2.88 and WHIP of 1.03. Fantasy players need to note two important things: (1) The change from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium will have some elevated effect to his ERA; and (2) Beware of drafting an oft-injured pitcher coming off a career year. Rodon is a great pitcher who will help any fantasy staff but don't overpay on draft day.

Shane Bieber traded an elite K% for an elite BB% in 2022, providing fantasy managers with a different type of ace on their pitching staff. He still struck out 198 batters in 200 innings, but his true value was in his 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His xERA was 3.51, but his xFIP was 2.98, which is encouraging for 2023. Bieber will not dazzle you with an overpowering fastball, and he occasionally gets lit up by hard contact, but his K/BB ratio of 5.50 will provide a great floor to rely on.

Kevin Gausman is an interesting case study of how surface and underlying stats can do weird things. In 2021, he had a 2.81 ERA but a 3.28 xFIP; in 2022, it was a 3.35 ERA and 2.75 xFIP. The difference lay entirely in his BABIP, which did its expected jump from an impossible .274 to an outrageous .363. Gausman throws his split-finger fastball almost 35% of the time, which is his best pitch but also the one that can lead to this type of BABIP jump. All of that is to say that the 31-year-old cannot be counted on for exceptional, ace-like numbers. Still, he will be a solid SP2 in any fantasy team rotation, giving you strikeouts and protecting your ratios, but the variance will always play into his overall numbers.

Luis Castillo got traded to the Mariners at the deadline last season, moving from the band box that is Great American Ballpark to T-Mobile Park and helping Seattle make the playoffs for the first time since 2001. The 30-year-old pitched 150 innings after beginning the season on the shelf, and his numbers were markedly improved from his 2021 campaign. He struck out 167 batters on his way to a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. With Castillo, the concern is often that he starts slow, but Seattle may be a perfect location for him to settle in more quickly, as home games in April and May will have a roof option. He would make for a good SP2 on regular 5x5 fantasy teams.

Jordan Romano saved 36 games for the Blue Jays in 2022, and he is the clear-cut closer going into 2023. The two knocks against him are that he walks more batters than he should, and his xERA and xFIP were an entire run above the actuals. All the same, Romano struck out 73 batters in 64 innings while maintaining a 2.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The 29-year-old does not fit the profile of a truly elite closer, but he should collect another 30 saves, securing a good base in 5x5 leagues.

The Blue Jays took the training wheels off Alek Manoah, and he responded with 196 2/3 innings of ace-level pitching. His K/9 rate dipped to 8.24, but his BB/9 improved from 3.22 to 2.33. The concern is that his 2.24 ERA was well below his xERA of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.97. Manoah collected 16 wins and, while we can't predict those very well, he did pitch over 6 innings on average, making him a solid pick in QS leagues as well. He is still only 25 years old and should be a durable righty on fantasy staffs in 2023.

If spin rate is your jam, you'll love what Ryan Pressly has to offer. The 34-year-old closer for the World Series Champions is in the 97th percentile in fastball spin and the 100th percentile in curveball spin. He used a four-pitch arsenal to get 33 saves with a 2.98 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He is not as highly sought after as the overpowering, high-strikeout guys above him, but he will provide everything fantasy managers need in a closer and then some.

Cristian Javier began 2022 in the bullpen and then started 25 games, bringing joy to fantasy managers' hearts everywhere. The 25-year-old tossed a 94-mph fastball with a 77-mph curve and mixed in a slider and changeup to create an 11.74 K/9. He struck out 194 batters in 148 2/3 innings and held a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His BABIP and LOB% are both due for regression, and his xFIP was 3.53, so it's important to temper expectations in those departments. All in all, Javier will make a great SP3 with SP2 upside.

Framber Valdez became Mr. Quality Start in 2022, tossing 201 1/3 innings in 31 starts for the World Champions. Houston allowed the 29-year-old to go deep into games, and with the departure of Justin Verlander, he slots in as their No. 1 starter. Valdez has more value in fantasy leagues where quality starts are a category because his pitching repertoire lends itself to more groundouts than strikeouts. He is no slouch, though, and will serve as a great SP2 on fantasy rosters.

Felix Bautista is a hard-throwing righty who arrived in Baltimore and immediately became a high-impact reliever. He struck out 88 batters in 65 2/3 innings while maintaining a 2.19 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He collected 14 holds before the Orioles traded Jorge Lopez at the deadline, after which he notched 15 saves. As long as the 27-year-old continues to rein in the free passes, the saves should be plentiful and competition for the role won't be. Bautista is a Tier 2 closer worth targeting in drafts.

Tyler Glasnow was having an outstanding season in 2021 before requiring Tommy John surgery. He somehow made it back before the end of the 2022 season, starting two games and looking like the Glasnow of old. The 29-year-old's Steamer projections show a 2.96 xFIP and a K/9 north of 11, and his current ADP is 92. He is a risky SP2 and would be a much safer pick as a third or fourth starter. However, if he stays healthy, he has all the makings of an SP1.

Robbie Ray signed a five-year contract with Seattle in 2022 and produced well, even if he didn't live up to his Cy Young numbers. He started 32 games, throwing 189 innings and striking out 212 batters. His ERA made the expected leap up to 3.71, but his BB% stayed in the single digits, meaning he may have repaired his proverbial Achilles heel for good. While he is not an SP1, he carries a lot of good assets as an SP2 for 2023 and can be expected to finish in the general vicinity of 2022's numbers.

Triston McKenzie reduced his BB/9 from 4.35 to 2.07 in 2022, skyrocketing up fantasy rankings and boosting the the pitching staff for any manager who rolled the dice on him. The question becomes what his fourth MLB season will bring. His .237 BABIP is due for some regression, and his xFIP was 3.77. He struck out 191 batters in 191 1/3 innings, with a practically unhittable curveball. He does allow more hard contact than we'd like from an SP1, but he slots in nicely as an SP2/SP3 as long as fantasy managers account for some regression while drafting.

Nestor Cortes was a gift to fantasy managers who drafted him late in 2022. He started 28 games, throwing 158 1/3 innings, striking out 163 batters, and maintaining a 2.44/0.92 ERA/WHIP. His GB% of 33.5 and LOB% of 82.8 contribute to his excellent ratios. The Yankees were the best team in Defensive Runs Saved, which furthered his effectiveness. He won't come with quite as big of a discount in 2023, but in the tenth round, he is a great SP3.

Luis Severino returned from Tommy John surgery, and the Yankees applied restraint to his workload early in the season. He then incurred a lat injury that cost him a 60-day IL stint and limited his start count to 19. However, in 102 innings, he struck out 112 batters and carried a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. After he returned from the IL, he showed no signs of lingering issues down the stretch. Walks and home runs will always keep Severino from being in that upper echelon of starters, but he has SP1 ability that can be had long after the studs are gone.

Logan Gilbert flashed the goods in 2021 and returned for a great year in 2022. He pitched 185 2/3 innings, striking out 174 batters with a 3.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His Statcast page looks concerning at first, finishing above the 50th percentile in only three categories - extension, fastball velocity, and BB%. Gilbert throws five different pitches, which keeps hitters off balance and allows him to be successful. He will turn 26 in May, and 2023 will show us what kind of long-term fantasy asset he may be. Much like his teammate, George Kirby, Gilbert is a nice SP4 piece you can grab a little later in drafts.

George Kirby arrived in the majors in 2022 and immediately showed off his meticulous control which led to a 6.05 K:BB ratio. The lack of walks is his calling card, even if he gives up hard contact on his four other pitches. Fantasy managers are clamoring for him to develop a second devastating pitch to increase his effectiveness overall. At age 25, Kirby can serve as a great SP3/SP4 for fantasy managers with hope that he will climb the ranks going forward.

 

Clay Holmes had two seasons in 2022. Before the All-Star Break, he had 16 saves, seven holds, an ERA of 1.34, and a 41:8 K:BB ratio. After the ASB, he hit the IL with a back strain and had four saves, an ERA of 4.44, and a 25:13 K:BB ratio. With the Yankees letting Chapman go to the Royals, Holmes currently stands alone on the closer depth chart. If you buy into his first half from 2022, he is a steal at his current ADP. If you don't, it is wise to stay clear.

Lance Lynn suffered a knee injury late in Spring Training that cost him two months of the season. When he returned, it looked like all of the skills that made him so highly sought after had disappeared. He had an unsightly 6.42 ERA heading into August and was getting clobbered by hitters. From August til the end of the season, however, he carried a 2.43 ERA and returned to his low-walk, low-HR self. Lynn is a prime candidate to climb draft boards if he shows out during Spring Training given his history as a workhorse.

If you drafted Lucas Giolito in 2022, chances are good you spent a great deal of time debating whether or not to drop him, trade him, or hold. The good news is that he wasn't as bad as his surface numbers. He had an ERA of 4.90 but an xFIP of 3.66. The other news is that his fastball velocity and K% decreased while his BB% increased. Giolito is only 28 years old, and his ADP puts him somewhere around the 13th round. He should be better in 2023, but no promises he will return to his 2019-2021 form.

Joe Ryan emerged as a solid No. 2 starter in Minnesota in 2022, striking out 151 batters in 147 innings, going 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His xERA was 3.57 but his xFIP was 4.35. He gives up more HR than fantasy managers would like (1.22 HR/9 last year), but he balances that with a 9.24 K/9 and 2.88 BB/9. The 26-year-old definitely has a place on fantasy rosters and can probably be picked up somewhere in the 13th round.

Pablo Lopez started 32 games for the hapless Marlins in 2022 and threw 180 innings with 174 strikeouts, a 3.75 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP. He had been the target of many trade rumors at the deadline but stayed put. Instead, he was swapped to the Twins in January, which should result in more wins with a better lineup, though Target Field will play smaller than loanDepot Park in Miami. He is an appealing SP4 for fantasy staffs.

Chris Sale seemed like the most snake-bitten player in baseball last season. He began the year on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his ribs. He made his way back in July and pitched 5 2/3 innings before a line drive fractured his pinky finger. While waiting for him to possibly return, he fell off a bike and fractured his wrist, which had to be surgically repaired in the offseason. Behind all of this is the hope that he can return to his 2019 form, which is the last time he made more than 10 starts in a season. The draft discount would have to be huge to take a flier on him, and chances are good that one of your much more hopeful league mates will take him before he reaches that point.

Chris Bassitt is the exact type of high floor/low ceiling starting pitcher that you draft to your roster in a later round and then don't worry about. He isn't going to do anything flashy (8.27 K/9), but he shouldn't do much to harm your numbers. After starting 27 games in 2021 and 30 in 2022, Bassitt can be counted on for 175 solid innings and somewhere in the 3.70/1.18 ERA/WHIP.

Liam Hendriks quietly had a very solid year for a disappointing White Sox team. He collected 37 saves, while pitching 57 2/3 innings and striking out 85 batters. He remained in the 90th percentile or higher in xBA, K%, fastball velocity, extension, xERA, and Whiff%. He missed some time with a right forearm strain; though there were no immediate signs of this lingering issue, it is something to take into consideration. He announced in January that he had been diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, so his timetable for return is in question.

Scott Barlow held a lot more fantasy appeal before the Royals went out and signed Aroldis Chapman. Barlow will still get his fair share of save opportunities, but this smells like a closer by committee to start the season.

 

 

 

Brady Singer is a 26-year-old unfinished product who flashed some excellent skills in 2022. He started 24 games and threw 153 1/3 innings while maintaining a 3.23 ERA (3.30 xFIP) and 1.14 WHIP. His Statcast leaves a lot to be desired, though he is in the 82nd percentile in BB%. He's another pitcher who will be a nice SP4 or SP5 to add later in drafts to help balance your ratios.

 

If Jon Gray had stayed healthy in 2022, he would be going much higher in drafts this year. Instead, he had a start/stop season where he dealt with finger, knee, and oblique issues. Assuming he starts 20+ games this year, he will provide fantasy managers a strikeout-per-inning performance by coupling a 96-mph fastball with his punchout 85-mph slider. Take the discount and don't look back.