| 1 |
Chris Sale (BOS - SP) | 8 |
8.0 |
‐ |
2016 was another dominant year for Boston's new ace, but even more concerning than the tough new division and ballpark is that Sale took a significant step backwards in his K-rate and overall metrics. That doesn't just mean less K's and likely ERA, wins, it means an elevated injury risk. |
| 2 |
Corey Kluber (CLE - SP) | 12 |
9.0 |
-3.0 |
It's easy to remember than Kluber was really struggling last season and chalk it up to the inevitable regression after a breakout, but look closer and you'll see the underlying stats showing he was the best pitcher in the AL once again. Now that he has an improved lineup and perhaps the best bullpen in baseball, you can pencil him in for 15+ wins too. |
| 3 |
Justin Verlander (HOU - SP) | 20 |
17.0 |
-3.0 |
Despite being 33 years old last season, Verlander was every bit as good as his 'prime years', striking out 10 batters per nine innings while leading the league in WHIP with over 225 innings. There is no reason to expect the workhorse to see much regression, as he has prove he can handle the load. |
| 4 |
Chris Archer (TB - SP) | 23 |
21.0 |
-2.0 |
Please do not be the fantasy owner who looks at his stat line, sees 19 losses and labels him an 'avoid at all costs'. Rather, look at the underlying metrics, especially his second-half splits, and you can be confident the wins will come along with his dominating performances. |
| 5 |
Carlos Carrasco (CLE - SP) | 27 |
24.0 |
-3.0 |
Over his last 70 starts, Carlos has been among the best pitchers in baseball. The issue is that he hasn't eclipsed 185 innings during that time and those durability issues won't just disappear during the off-season. He has the upside to win a Cy Young, but is likely to disappoint if you expect just that out of him. |
| 6 |
Aroldis Chapman (NYY - RP) | 32 |
22.0 |
-10.0 |
Unless Chapman were to get hurt, it is a virtual certainty that he will strikeout over 100 hitters and save 30+ games with a minuscule ERA and WHIP. The only question is whether the Yankees afford him enough save opportunities to be the top fantasy closer. |
| 7 |
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY - SP) | 36 |
31.0 |
-5.0 |
Tanaka has a knack for getting hitters out without she strikeout, but because he is unlikely to surpass 180 Ks, his upside is limited. In fact, wins and ERA regression are both expected based on underlying metrics so enter your drafts knowing his limits and expectations. |
| 8 |
Zach Britton (BAL - RP) | 37 |
26.0 |
-11.0 |
While Britton has sported obscene ERAs the past three seasons and especially last season, he is likely to see some regression in that area and his K's set him far back from the two elite closers. |
| 9 |
Cole Hamels (TEX - SP) | 42 |
35.0 |
-7.0 |
Easily the most valueable thing about Hamels is that he has rattled off at least 30 starts in nine straight seasons and has a sub 3.30 ERA during that time. Being able to expect that from your #2 fantasy pitcher is a huge deal, even if he likely has a limited ceiling. |
| 10 |
Edwin Diaz (SEA - RP) | 45 |
39.0 |
-6.0 |
If you are looking for the next Kenley Jansen, look no further. Diaz is likely to strike out near 110 batters this inning as a 23 year old with impeccable command and a stellar ERA. If he can get enough save opportunities with Seattle, he might end up the top closer in baseball. |
| 11 |
David Price (BOS - SP,RP) | 44 |
47.0 |
+3.0 |
Two years ago, Price had his best season of a terrific career, then he landed the big contract and blew up for his worst season since his 2009 rookie year. Not only were the strikeouts way down, but he gave up a league leading 227 hits. A bounce back in likely, but temper your expectations. |
| 12 |
Roberto Osuna (TOR - RP) | 47 |
44.0 |
-3.0 |
Osuna took the fantasy world by storm as a 20 year old rookie in 2015 then repeated with very similar numbers. You may think he has another gear yet to be discovered, but most scouts believe he has already reached his ceiling so don't expect 90+ strikeouts or anything absurd like Betances' 130+. |
| 13 |
Craig Kimbrel (BOS - RP) | 48 |
41.0 |
-7.0 |
No more are the days where Kimbrel strikes out 16 hitters per nine innings or keeps a WHIP below 0.9, in fact, his BB-rate was significantly higher last season. Be careful to not get ahead of yourself, drafting based on who he has been. |
| 14 |
Rick Porcello (BOS - SP) | 51 |
42.0 |
-9.0 |
Porcello's 22 wins and superb ERA were constructs of the luckiest MLB season in regards to underlying metrics. His expected ERA based on every deep number suggest he was outside the top 25 pitchers in baseball, let alone the top pitcher in the AL. Significant regression should be expected and factored into his draft stock. |
| 15 |
Danny Salazar (CLE - SP) | 50 |
55.0 |
+5.0 |
Salazar is in the prime of his career at 27 years old and was in the driver's seat for the Cy Young award before a mild injury set him back. That should add up to much more than the 20th highest ranked pitcher, but your league-mates' miss can lead to your success. Nab this extreme upside if he falls, but also beware of the injury risk. |
| 16 |
Danny Duffy (KC - SP,RP) | 53 |
45.0 |
-8.0 |
The Royals' lefty ace took a big leap forward last year by posting 188 Ks in just 179 innings. Seeing that he should see a full season in the rotation, 220 Ks and 15 wins with a strong ERA and WHIP is not out of the question. The fact that he qualifies at RP is just a cherry on top. |
| 17 |
Kenneth Giles (HOU - RP) | 55 |
50.0 |
-5.0 |
You may be looking at his career stat line and wondering what in the world happened last year. Yes, the ERA dropped from 1.80 to 4.11, but don't be alarmed, the peripheral stats were actually better! He went from 11.2 K/9 all the way up to 14.0 He just might strike out 120 hitters this season and the ERA will come back down to earth. |
| 18 |
Kelvin Herrera (KC - RP) | 57 |
49.0 |
-8.0 |
The Royals new closer has been excellent over the past three seasons, but last year he was actually much better, striking out 10.8 K/9 with a sub 1.00 WHIP for the first time in his career. Now that the job is all his, he should surge up the rankings this season. |
| 19 |
Dallas Keuchel (HOU - SP) | 58 |
64.0 |
+6.0 |
2015's Cy Young winner saw a significant increase in his hits allowed rate, walk rate and home run rate with a severe drop in his strikeout rate. It may be intriguing to trying grabbing such a recent Cy Young winner, but the facts that he pitched so poorly and has been dealing with a shoulder injury are both major red flags. |
| 20 |
Cody Allen (CLE - RP) | 62 |
52.0 |
-10.0 |
Cody Allen has quietly been one of the top closers in baseball over the past three years, with 91, 99 and 87 Ks in those seasons with a sub 3.00 ERA in each. The only reason he isn't commonly recognized as such is because of save opportunities, which should see positive regression this season. |
| 21 |
Andrew Miller (CLE - RP) | 63 |
57.0 |
-6.0 |
Miller is unlikely to save more than the dozen games he secured last year, but his innings could increase beyond 80, which would give us above 130 Ks to go along with a dynamite ERA and WHIP, making him a surefire top 10 reliever yet again. |
| 22 |
Marcus Stroman (TOR - SP) | 65 |
65.0 |
‐ |
We all continue to hear that Stroman is oozing with potential and bound to take the league by storm, but nothing among his 7.3 K/9, 9.2 H/9 or any other metric suggest he is destined to take a big leap forward any time soon. |
| 23 |
Felix Hernandez (SEA - SP) | 66 |
58.0 |
-8.0 |
Although it was just two years ago, King Felix is far separated from the days of posting huge strikeout rates with a league leading WHIP and sub 2.30 ERA. If you draft him, that is not the pitcher you are getting. Rather, expect lots of innings with a 3.50+ ERA and much lower K-rates. |
| 24 |
Lance McCullers (HOU - SP) | 67 |
71.0 |
+4.0 |
Despite being just 23 years old, the Astros' true ace, McCullers, is averaging over 10 K/9 in his short career. The only other pitchers to accomplish that during the same time frame are all perennial Cy Young contenders. His ceiling is elite and he hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential. |
| 25 |
David Robertson (NYY - RP) | 70 |
69.0 |
-1.0 |
Over the past three seasons, there has been a clear downward trend with Robertson with a rising BAA and a plummeting K/9 rate. With that being said, he was so great when the trend began that he is still a very impressive closer who is stuck in a bad situation for save opportunities. |
| 26 |
Kevin Gausman (BAL - SP) | 69 |
68.0 |
-1.0 |
Don't be the guy who looks at his 453 IP and writes Gausman off for just having 23 wins. His deeper stats, especially in the second-half last year, when his K-rate soared and his OPS allowed dropped 60 points, tell us that the wins are well on the way. |
| 27 |
Alexander Colome (TB - RP) | 71 |
61.0 |
-10.0 |
Colome was initially supposed to be a starting pitcher last season, but when Boxberger went down, Colome was thrown into the role and really excelled with 11.3 K/9, a stellar 1.91 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. If he can hang onto the job over Boxberger, there is no reason why he shouldn't be great once again. |
| 28 |
James Paxton (SEA - SP) | 73 |
75.0 |
+2.0 |
If James Paxton could stay on the mound, the Mariners might have a nice piece for their rotation, but in three seasons he has only been able to compile 260 innings. His WHIP has been fairly high all along and the K's not enough to off-set all the concerns so it is best to avoid him unless he falls late into your drafts. |
| 29 |
Dellin Betances (NYY - RP) | 83 |
79.0 |
-4.0 |
Betances took a big step back last season, which is hilarious because he was still among the best relievers in baseball. With at least 125 Ks each of the previous three seasons, he should be regarded as a top 10 reliever regardless of the minimal save projections. |
| 30 |
Sean Manaea (OAK - SP) | 84 |
83.0 |
-1.0 |
In his rookie season, Manaea tarted off looking like a mediocre pitcher, but took a few big steps forward in the second half. His first half WHIP was 1.39, while his second half dropped all the way to 1.02. Likewise, his ERA plummeted and k-rate increased. If he can carry that momentum into the season, he will be well worth a mid-round pick. |
| 31 |
Jake Odorizzi (TB - SP) | 87 |
84.0 |
-3.0 |
Odorizzi is coming into the prime years of his career and has been making a name for himself as a consistent fantasy asset that will provide a solid ERA and WHIP with enough Ks to be worthy of a mid-round pick. If he is traded before the end of the season, however, that ERA may inflate a bit. |
| 32 |
J.A. Happ (TOR - SP) | 93 |
80.0 |
-13.0 |
Some may be very tempted by Happ's superb ERA last season, but there are plenty of factors going against him this season, especially the deeper statistics. Take a chance if you insist, but he is a prime candidate for significant regression. |
| 33 |
Garrett Richards (LAA - SP) | 102 |
98.0 |
-4.0 |
Richards opted away from surgery so there remains a threat for re-injury, but if he can stay on the field, he is a special pitcher. He doesn't miss a ton of bats, but no one gets solid contact on him so the ERA is likely to be terrific and he is a candidate to win plenty of games. |
| 34 |
Marco Estrada (TOR - SP) | 100 |
87.0 |
-13.0 |
Estrada was an all-star for the first time in his career last season and has posted back to back seasons with an ERA under 3.50 thanks to the best BAA in the AL each season, but at 33 years old, you would be wise to be wary of old-man regression. |
| 35 |
Drew Pomeranz (BOS - SP) | 103 |
111.0 |
+8.0 |
After being traded to the Red Sox, Pomeranz had a steep drop off in virtually every stat, so owners are going to be quite low on him this season, but he is still coming into the prime of his career and is coming off a terrific 170 combined innings from last season so make of that what you will. |
| 36 |
Jharel Cotton (OAK - SP) | 111 |
113.0 |
+2.0 |
Last year, Cotton was significantly better than his 4.31 Triple-A ERA indicated. His 1.084 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 were among the top marks in a hitter-friendly league, then he proceeded to allow very few hitters on base in his debut. Cotton is polished and ready to roll for the A's in 2017. |
| 37 |
Cameron Bedrosian (LAA - RP) | 115 |
92.0 |
-23.0 |
It isn't quite clear whether the Angels will give the job to Cam or Huston Street, but you should approach the situation with confidence. In Bedrosian's 40 innings last season, he was one of the most impressive relief pitchers in baseball with 11.4 K/9 and a superb 1.12 ERA. |
| 38 |
Sonny Gray (NYY - SP) | 109 |
108.0 |
-1.0 |
Gray will be one of the most polarizing pitchers this season thanks to a drop in ERA from 2.73 to 5.69 and in WHIP from 1.082 to 1.496 in just one season. He unquestionably has Cy Young potential, but could blow up your fantasy rotation in a repeat performance from 2016. |
| 39 |
Blake Snell (TB - SP) | 116 |
124.0 |
+8.0 |
This former top 15 prospect and Minor League Pitcher of the Year, was one of the top strikeout pitchers per inning in the majors last season. His control took a big step backwards, but Snell has proved himself enough that we can expect the WHIP to get into shape enough to help fantasy owners this season with all those strikeouts. |
| 40 |
Collin McHugh (HOU - SP) | 117 |
144.0 |
+27.0 |
McHugh has had his ups and his downs, but unfortunately for his fantasy status, the trend has been consistently down. With that said, there is reason to believe he will be serviceable once again. |
| 41 |
Ian Kennedy (KC - SP) | 120 |
112.0 |
-8.0 |
Over the past three seasons, Kennedy has 565 strikeouts, so even though the ERA and wins haven't quite been where you would hope, he can fill the gap as a decent last pitcher on a fantasy roster. |
| 42 |
Ervin Santana (MIN - SP) | 123 |
129.0 |
+6.0 |
While Santana is unlikely to pick up more than 150 Ks or a dozen wins on the Twins, he had excellent ratios last season and should once again if he is able to stay healthy in 2017. |
| 43 |
Brandon Maurer (KC - RP) | 127 |
105.0 |
-22.0 |
|
| 44 |
Jeremy Hellickson (BAL - SP) | 130 |
140.0 |
+10.0 |
|
| 45 |
Alex Cobb (TB - SP) | 133 |
128.0 |
-5.0 |
Alex Cobb has had all kinds of injuries issues over his career and wasn't impressive whatsoever last year in limited innings, but in 2013 and 2014 he posted ERAs under 3.00 with double-digit wins so returning to that type of production is entirely possible. |
| 46 |
Dylan Bundy (BAL - SP,RP) | 132 |
116.0 |
-16.0 |
It was beginning to look like Bundy's career was never going to get going because of all the injury problems. he finally got his opportunity last year, posting a low K-9 and .305 batting BAA in the first-half, but he turned it around quickly in the second half with over a strikeout per inning and a strong .231 BAA. If he continues that progress, he will be a tremendous mid-round value. |
| 47 |
Tyler Skaggs (LAA - SP) | 135 |
152.0 |
+17.0 |
|
| 48 |
Jordan Zimmermann (DET - SP) | 143 |
125.0 |
-18.0 |
Zimmerman was a major disappointment last season after signing a big contract, but keep in mind, he is just two seasons removed from a 2.66 ERA and had an excellent ERA for five straight seasons. Sure, the strikeouts aren't going to be all that high, but there is a good chance he returns to strong ratios. |
| 49 |
Blake Treinen (OAK - RP) | 128 |
104.0 |
-24.0 |
|
| 50 |
Francisco Liriano (HOU - SP,RP) | 137 |
123.0 |
-14.0 |
|
| 51 |
Trevor Bauer (CLE - SP,RP) | 141 |
120.0 |
-21.0 |
Many expected Bauer to put together a more impressive season by now, but the former top prospect hasn't had a consistent season yet in his career and sports a 4.42 ERA despite the impressive stuff. We know the talent is there to propel him further up the rankings, but it seems as though he will continue to have command issues that hold him back. |
| 52 |
Jason Hammel (KC - SP) | 146 |
132.0 |
-14.0 |
|
| 53 |
Daniel Norris (DET - SP) | 140 |
145.0 |
+5.0 |
The Tigers acquired Norris from the Blue Jays in the David Price deal a few years back and have been disappointed at how slowly Norris has developed. With that being said, he has top-notch stuff and could emerge into a quality fantasy player this season. |
| 54 |
Mike Leake (SEA - SP) | 145 |
189.0 |
+44.0 |
|
| 55 |
Chris Tillman (BAL - SP,RP) | 150 |
171.0 |
+21.0 |
|
| 56 |
Bartolo Colon (MIN - SP) MiLB | 149 |
148.0 |
-1.0 |
|
| 57 |
Addison Reed (BOS - RP) | 157 |
117.0 |
-40.0 |
|
| 58 |
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS - SP) | 156 |
135.0 |
-21.0 |
|
| 59 |
Matt Andriese (TB - SP,RP) | 152 |
156.0 |
+4.0 |
|
| 60 |
Joe Musgrove (HOU - SP,RP) | 153 |
165.0 |
+12.0 |
Musgrove was exceptional in Single-A with a 0.70 ERA, then again in Double-A with a 0.34 ERA. He slowed down a little in the majors, but was still quite good, blowing away expectations. His stuff doesn't seem the sort to dominate, but the track record is golden. |
| 61 |
Jaime Garcia (NYY - SP) | 155 |
186.0 |
+31.0 |
|
| 62 |
Chris Devenski (HOU - SP,RP) | 160 |
150.0 |
-10.0 |
|
| 63 |
Jose Berrios (MIN - SP) | 162 |
|
|
The Twins' sophomore struggled with an 8.02 ERA in his 58 inning debut, but we saw flashes of brilliance, which were proved over and over in the minors. He is still far from polished, but could breakout any time so keep an eye on him. |
| 64 |
Luis Severino (NYY - SP,RP) | 169 |
166.0 |
-3.0 |
Severino took a major step backwards last season, but this former top 20 prospect has plenty of upside to dream on. If you are in a deeper league, don't hesitate to take a chance on this premium talent in hope that he realizes some of that potential this season. |
| 65 |
Matt Bush (TEX - RP) | 188 |
162.0 |
-26.0 |
The Rangers don't have the most steady closer situation right now so don't put it past Bush to take over the job. Last season, the former first overall pick really emerged into one of the top middle relievers in baseball. |
| 66 |
Mike Fiers (HOU - SP) | 179 |
|
|
|
| 67 |
Ricky Nolasco (LAA - SP) | 170 |
170.0 |
‐ |
|
| 68 |
Lucas Giolito (CWS - SP) | 172 |
180.0 |
+8.0 |
Some considered Giolito the top overall prospect in baseball before he struggled in his short MLB debut. The fact of the matter is, while his numbers weren't dominant, they were significantly better than Syndergaard's the year before his breakout rookie season and Giolito is every bit as talented. |
| 69 |
Luke Gregerson (HOU - RP) | 197 |
151.0 |
-46.0 |
|
| 70 |
Brad Brach (BAL - RP) | 198 |
160.0 |
-38.0 |
|
| 71 |
Will Harris (HOU - RP) | 192 |
|
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| 72 |
Darren O'Day (BAL - RP) | 194 |
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| 73 |
Santiago Casilla (OAK - RP) | 185 |
139.0 |
-46.0 |
|
| 74 |
Miguel Gonzalez (TEX - SP) | 173 |
|
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| 75 |
Charlie Morton (HOU - SP) | 206 |
182.0 |
-24.0 |
|
| 76 |
Evan Scribner (SEA - RP) FA | 210 |
|
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| 77 |
Tyler Clippard (HOU - RP) | 199 |
|
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| 78 |
Mychal Antonio Givens (BAL - RP) | 214 |
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| 79 |
Michael Feliz (HOU - RP) | 203 |
|
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| 80 |
Matt Boyd (DET - SP,RP) | 180 |
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| 81 |
Ryan Dull (OAK - RP) | 222 |
181.0 |
-41.0 |
|
| 82 |
Reynaldo Lopez (CWS - SP,RP) | 211 |
|
|
Many were raving about Lucas Giolito in the Adam Eaton deal, but it is more likely Reynaldo Lopez who could make a big impact this season as a rookie so keep an eye on how he begins the season. |
| 83 |
Kendall Graveman (OAK - SP) | 207 |
172.0 |
-35.0 |
|
| 84 |
CC Sabathia (NYY - SP) | 208 |
154.0 |
-54.0 |
|
| 85 |
Glen Perkins (MIN - RP) | 215 |
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| 86 |
Steve Cishek (TB - RP) | 205 |
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| 87 |
Wade Miley (BAL - SP) | 213 |
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| 88 |
Joe Kelly (BOS - SP,RP) | 212 |
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| 89 |
Ryan Buchter (KC - RP) | 209 |
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| 90 |
Keone Kela (TEX - RP) | 217 |
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| 91 |
Jesse Chavez (LAA - SP,RP) | 223 |
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| 92 |
Bruce Rondon (DET - RP) MiLB | 250 |
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| 93 |
Chad Green (NYY - SP,RP) | 257 |
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| 94 |
Josh Tomlin (CLE - SP) | 238 |
163.0 |
-75.0 |
|
| 95 |
Andrew Bailey (LAA - RP) DL60 | 243 |
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| 96 |
Liam Hendriks (OAK - RP) | 219 |
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| 97 |
Sergio Romo (TB - RP) | 232 |
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| 98 |
Jason Grilli (TEX - RP) | 224 |
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| 99 |
Trevor Cahill (KC - SP,RP) | 246 |
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| 100 |
Anibal Sanchez (DET - SP,RP) | 236 |
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| 101 |
Brian Flynn (KC - RP) DL60 | 244 |
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| 102 |
Fernando Salas (LAA - RP) | 239 |
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| 103 |
Erasmo Ramirez (SEA - SP,RP) | 231 |
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| 104 |
Martin Perez (TEX - SP) | |
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| 105 |
Carson Smith (BOS - RP) | 240 |
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| 106 |
James Shields (CWS - SP) | 271 |
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| 107 |
Ariel Miranda (SEA - SP,RP) | 267 |
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| 108 |
Dan Otero (CLE - RP) | 245 |
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| 109 |
Nick Vincent (SEA - RP) | |
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| 110 |
Bradley Boxberger (TB - RP) | |
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| 111 |
Bryan Shaw (CLE - RP) | 252 |
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| 112 |
Chaz Roe (TB - RP) | 255 |
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| 113 |
Alex Wilson (DET - RP) SUS | |
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| 114 |
Andrew Cashner (TEX - SP) | |
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| 115 |
Danny Farquhar (CWS - RP) | 254 |
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| 116 |
Boone Logan (CLE - RP) DL60 | 261 |
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| 117 |
Mike Morin (KC - RP) | 260 |
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| 118 |
Zach McAllister (CLE - RP) | 262 |
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| 119 |
Xavier Cedeno (TB - RP) | 266 |
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| 120 |
Matt Barnes (BOS - RP) | |
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