| 1 |
Mike Trout (LAA - CF,DH) | 1 |
1 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
‐ |
You can take out any of Trout's five full seasons and line them up with any all-time great's standard season and wouldn't notice much of a difference. He is well on his way to being one of the greatest players ever and there is no excuse to pass on him at 1.1 |
| 2 |
Bryce Harper (WSH - RF) DL10 | 2 |
5 |
2.6 |
1.2 |
9.0 |
+7.0 |
We know that Harper has the potential to bat .330 with 42 bombs and 21 stolen bases because he has done it all before. Those kind of stats would carry you to a fantasy title. The matter of the fact is, if he can stay healthy, those numbers could swell even further |
| 3 |
Kris Bryant (CHC - 1B,3B,LF,RF) | 3 |
5 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
5.0 |
+2.0 |
Last season's NL MVP is still just 25 years old and has more potential to grow into. While he hit 39 homers last year, that number could, and many would argue should, become 45 to 50 this season. Toss in the best lineup in baseball and he might just drive in 130 runs all while batting .290 or higher again |
| 4 |
Manny Machado (BAL - 3B,SS) | 2 |
7 |
4.6 |
2.1 |
8.0 |
+4.0 |
Believe it or not, the five-year veteran is still just 24 years old, so believe it or not, we could still see another level or two from him. That becomes almost unbelieveable when you consider that he is shortstop eligible with the potential to hit 40 homers and seal 20 bases while batting .300 |
| 5 |
Mookie Betts (BOS - RF) | 4 |
6 |
4.8 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
-3.0 |
Mookie has seen steady offensive progression each season in the bigs. Last year, it took him to 31 homers and 26 stolen bases with a near .320 BA and a load of both RBIs and runs. If he can repeat that, we may very well be looking at the best fantasy player. If he continues to grow, well then, wow! |
| 6 |
Jose Altuve (HOU - 2B) | 4 |
10 |
6.8 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
-3.0 |
Altuve flirted with batting .360 or higher this season before going on a bit of a slump, so we know the potential for that type of season is there. Although his power has gone up from 7 to 15 to 24 HRs in the past three seasons, his steals have slipped from 56 to 38 to 30 in the same time |
| 7 |
Nolan Arenado (COL - 3B) | 6 |
8 |
7.0 |
0.6 |
4.0 |
-3.0 |
With 83 homers and 263 RBIs in the past two seasons, it is difficult to envision any scenario where he doesn't finish the fantasy season as a top-five hitter once again, especially considering he is just 26 years old. Add in 3rd base eligibility and you could make a legitimate case for drafting Arenado 2nd overall |
| 8 |
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI - 1B) | 6 |
16 |
9.4 |
3.4 |
7.0 |
-1.0 |
Despite being in the prime years of a hitters career, Goldy had an off-year offensivley, hitting 'just' 24 homers and batting 'just' .297. While those numbers will almost certainly rise, keep in mind that he was also top five among all batters in stolen bases with 32, which is just absurd for a 1st basemen |
| 9 |
Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP) | 9 |
12 |
10.2 |
1.5 |
6.0 |
-3.0 |
Kershaw had five straight top three Cy Young finishes in a row before his injury last season, when he was on pace to break the all-time single-season WHIP record, with his best ERA of his career while striking out near 300. At this point, he is still underrated |
| 10 |
Carlos Correa (HOU - SS) | 3 |
23 |
11.0 |
6.6 |
17.0 |
+7.0 |
Correa came out blazing as a 20-year-old his rookie season, but took a big step back in his sophomore campaign. With that being said, batting .274 with 20 bombs and 13 stolen bases at shortstop as a 21-year-old is extremely impressive and to think he should rebound well has to have fantasy owners excited |
| 11 |
Corey Seager (LAD - SS) | 6 |
22 |
12.0 |
5.3 |
18.0 |
+7.0 |
Seager had a spectacular rookie season last year, bashing 26 homers and batting .308. What's more, is that he knocked 40 doubles, which could turn into homers as he continues to fill out his body. Whether it is this season or another in the future, Seager looks like an inevitable 35 homer, .320 batting average type of guy |
| 12 |
Anthony Rizzo (CHC - 1B,2B) | 10 |
17 |
12.8 |
2.3 |
11.0 |
-1.0 |
Since Rizzo is the veteran in this Cubs' lineup and has seemingly been around forever, it is easy to forget that he is still just 27 years old and could take another step forward offensivley. With that being said, his stats have been extremely consistent each of the past three seasons so the floor seems as high as any other first round pick's |
| 13 |
Noah Syndergaard (NYM - SP) DL60 | 8 |
21 |
15.0 |
4.4 |
19.0 |
+6.0 |
Since Kershaw didn't pitch the whole season, it was the 23-year-old Syndergaard who led the Majors in WAR, FIP and seemingly every other underlying metric that distinguishes the best pitchers from one another |
| 14 |
Trea Turner (WSH - 2B,SS,CF) | 11 |
26 |
16.0 |
5.2 |
13.0 |
-1.0 |
|
| 15 |
Madison Bumgarner (SF - SP) | 14 |
19 |
16.2 |
1.7 |
14.0 |
-1.0 |
What is perhaps more remarkable than Mad-Bum's unrivaled consistency is the fact that he has continued to get better each and every season. Last season was his career-best ERA and the first time he reached 10.0 k/9 |
| 16 |
Josh Donaldson (TOR - 3B,DH) | 12 |
28 |
17.4 |
5.6 |
10.0 |
-6.0 |
Since moving to the Blue Jays, Donldson has produced two superb offensive campaigns. Take note, however, that he saw a drop in HRs, batting average and a significant drop in RBIs last season now that he is on the wrong side of 30 so be weary of further drops, but we certainly know the upside too |
| 17 |
Max Scherzer (WSH - SP) | 13 |
23 |
17.6 |
3.2 |
12.0 |
-5.0 |
Not only did Scherzer set a career-best 284 Ks last season, but he also led the league with a 0.968 WHIP and 20 wins. With that being said, drafting a pitcher with over 900 innings over the past four seasons is always dangerous because of elevated injury risk |
| 18 |
Starling Marte (PIT - LF,CF) | 13 |
26 |
19.0 |
5.2 |
25.0 |
+7.0 |
Marte finished second in steals among all MLB players with 47 last season, up 17 from the previous year, and this in 24 fewer games. If he can stay on the field, we might just see 60 swipes this time around and hopefully his power can just back up to the 19 homers he knocked in 2015 |
| 19 |
Charlie Blackmon (COL - CF) | 11 |
36 |
21.0 |
8.2 |
16.0 |
-3.0 |
When Blackmon broke out for 19 homers and 28 SB two years ago, people weren't sure he could repeat, then he went for 17 and 43 the following year. At that point, it seemed like he had reached his ceiling, but then he knocked 29 homers while batting .324 last season. Don't rule out even further development this season |
| 20 |
Xander Bogaerts (BOS - SS) | 15 |
35 |
21.2 |
7.2 |
26.0 |
+6.0 |
Xander was unbelieveable for most of the season before finishing in a major slump with a .294 batting average on the year. We can expect the batting average to see positive regression, and now that he is filling into his body, we might see the homers jump up once again from the 21 we saw in 2016 |
| 21 |
Francisco Lindor (CLE - SS) | 15 |
29 |
21.6 |
4.5 |
23.0 |
+2.0 |
Batting .300 isn't an easy task these days, but Lindor managed to pull it off in both of his first two MLB seasons and at a premium position. Add in the fact that his homers increased to 15 while his steals jumped to 19 and you have to wonder just how much better he will get in his age 23 season |
| 22 |
Miguel Cabrera (DET - 1B,DH) | 16 |
31 |
22.6 |
4.8 |
15.0 |
-7.0 |
It was beginning to look like Miggy's power numbers were never going to bounce back up after consecutive 25 and 18 hokmer seasons, but last year he popped back up to 38. He is now 34 years old, but still seems like a lock for 30+ homers and a .310 to .350 batting average |
| 23 |
Freddie Freeman (ATL - 1B,3B) | 13 |
31 |
23.4 |
6.0 |
27.0 |
+4.0 |
Freeman was terrible to begin his 2016 campaign, with a .252 bating average over his first 200 at bats, but then he went nuts, finishing the season with a .968 OPS despite the slow start. His 34 bombs were well above a career high, and being just 27 years old, you should believe the power trend will stick around for some time |
| 24 |
Corey Kluber (CLE - SP) | 20 |
27 |
24.0 |
2.3 |
22.0 |
-2.0 |
It's easy to remember than Kluber was really struggling last season and chalk it up to the inevitable regression after a breakout, but look closer and you'll see the underlying stats showing he was the best pitcher in the AL once again. Now that he has an improved lineup and perhaps the best bullpen in baseball, you can pencil him in for 15+ wins too |
| 25 |
Chris Sale (BOS - SP) | 20 |
38 |
25.8 |
6.4 |
20.0 |
-5.0 |
2016 was another dominant year for Boston's new ace, but even more concerning than the tough new division and ballpark is that Sale took a significant step backwards in his K-rate and overall metrics. That doesn't just mean less K's and likely ERA, wins, it means an elevated injury risk |
| 26 |
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA - RF) | 18 |
39 |
26.8 |
6.8 |
38.0 |
+12.0 |
We have known all along that Stanton has the potential to hit 40+ or perhaps even 50 homers but he hasn't been able to stay on the field long enough to make it happen. Last season, his batting average took a big hit all the way down to .240 but should bump back up this year |
| 27 |
Joey Votto (CIN - 1B) | 19 |
35 |
28.2 |
5.3 |
21.0 |
-6.0 |
Last season, Votto started off by batting .252 in the first-half, then proceeded to bat an absurd .408 the rest of the way. While that is unlikely to repeated for a full season, it is worth noting that only five players all time have a higher BA, OBP and SLG than the Reds' legend in the making |
| 28 |
George Springer (HOU - CF,RF) | 21 |
34 |
28.6 |
4.7 |
34.0 |
+6.0 |
Although Springer has been around for just three years, he is already 27 years old so he may have already arrived at his ceiling. With that being said, near 30 homers with 10 stolen bases is a very fine player, and when you add in his durability, he seems like a safe bet to produce for your fantasy team |
| 29 |
Trevor Story (COL - SS) | 25 |
40 |
30.2 |
5.1 |
35.0 |
+6.0 |
The Rockies' shiny new shortstop began his career with a bang in April, but a lot of people don't realize that he was spectacular in June and July as well before getting injured. There is no reason to expect regression out of a kid this young so the question becomes just how much he can progress over one winter |
| 30 |
Rougned Odor (TEX - 2B) | 28 |
46 |
33.0 |
6.6 |
44.0 |
+14.0 |
|
| 31 |
J.D. Martinez (ARI - RF) | 29 |
38 |
33.0 |
3.3 |
70.0 |
+39.0 |
Over the past three seasons, Martinez is batting .299 and averaging 33 homers per 162 games played. Seeing that he is still in the prime years of a hitter's career, we should expect the same out of him, it is only a matter of whether or not he can stay healthy this year |
| 32 |
Wil Myers (SD - 1B,RF) | 30 |
39 |
33.8 |
3.5 |
52.0 |
+20.0 |
|
| 33 |
Robinson Cano (SEA - 2B) | 28 |
41 |
35.2 |
5.1 |
28.0 |
-5.0 |
After six straight seasons with a .302 to .319 batting average and less than 100 strikeouts, Cano has dipped below .300 with over 100 K's now two consecutive years. It is clear that as he ages, his skills are diminishing, but he did manage to knock 39 homers last year so he can still provide huge value as a second basemen |
| 34 |
Christian Yelich (MIA - LF,CF) | 24 |
50 |
35.4 |
8.5 |
53.0 |
+19.0 |
|
| 35 |
A.J. Pollock (ARI - CF) | 27 |
42 |
36.2 |
5.6 |
39.0 |
+4.0 |
We only got a 41 at bat sample size while A.J. was working back from his elbow injury, and that limited sample size wasn't pretty, but if he can even return to 80% of his 20/39 season in 2015 with a .315 batting average, then we would still be looking at an excellent 3rd round value |
| 36 |
Stephen Strasburg (WSH - SP) | 10 |
57 |
38.2 |
16.2 |
47.0 |
+11.0 |
Don't be quick to look at Strasburg's final stat line and dismiss it to another missed year in development. Rather, his 12-0 first half with a 2.68 ERA and brilliant 11+ K/9 suggest he was the second best pitcher in baseball before a big hiccup. The talent is there for him to help you win your league if he falls to the third-round |
| 37 |
Jake Arrieta (CHC - SP) | 34 |
48 |
38.6 |
4.9 |
29.0 |
-8.0 |
Let's get it out of the way, Arrieta will get plenty of wins in front of that lineup, but any time a pitcher makes a leap to 70 innings above his previous career high then follows it up with a miserable second half, you should be on the lookout for an injury or at the very least, further regression |
| 38 |
David Price (BOS - SP) | 32 |
46 |
39.0 |
5.0 |
100.0 |
+62.0 |
Two years ago, Price had his best season of a terrific career, then he landed the big contract and blew up for his worst season since his 2009 rookie year. Not only were the strikeouts way down, but he gave up a league leading 227 hits. A bounce back in likely, but temper your expectations |
| 39 |
Daniel Murphy (WSH - 1B,2B) | 32 |
57 |
41.0 |
8.4 |
31.0 |
-8.0 |
|
| 40 |
Jose Abreu (CWS - 1B,DH) | 38 |
46 |
41.8 |
3.1 |
48.0 |
+8.0 |
|
| 41 |
Carlos Gonzalez (COL - RF) | 30 |
54 |
43.4 |
8.5 |
45.0 |
+4.0 |
|
| 42 |
Ryan Braun (MIL - LF) | 18 |
75 |
44.4 |
18.1 |
37.0 |
-5.0 |
When Ryan Braun was winning MVPs, he was a clear cut high first-round pick. Now that the PED scandal hit, his prestige has disapated, but the numbers are quite nearly the same, minus about 10 stolen bases. Getting a value like this in the 3rd round is a rare opportunity |
| 43 |
Jon Lester (CHC - SP) | 39 |
56 |
45.6 |
6.0 |
33.0 |
-10.0 |
Lester just posted his best career season with 19 wins and a 2.44 ERA so at 33 year-old, it is safe to plan for some regression, but what's more is that his personal catcher, David Ross, is gone so who knows how he will react |
| 44 |
Gregory Polanco (PIT - LF,RF,CF) | 40 |
54 |
45.8 |
5.0 |
58.0 |
+14.0 |
|
| 45 |
Kyle Seager (SEA - 3B) | 35 |
65 |
47.6 |
9.7 |
46.0 |
+1.0 |
|
| 46 |
Justin Verlander (HOU - SP) | 43 |
61 |
48.6 |
6.5 |
40.0 |
-6.0 |
Despite being 33 years old last season, Verlander was every bit as good as his 'prime years', striking out 10 batters per nine innings while leading the league in WHIP with over 225 innings. There is no reason to expect the workhorse to see much regression, as he has prove he can handle the load |
| 47 |
Alex Bregman (HOU - 3B,SS) | 33 |
69 |
49.2 |
11.5 |
80.0 |
+33.0 |
|
| 48 |
Jonathan Villar (MIL - 2B,3B,SS,CF) | 36 |
66 |
50.4 |
9.9 |
30.0 |
-18.0 |
|
| 49 |
Yu Darvish (LAD - SP) | 32 |
76 |
50.8 |
14.4 |
41.0 |
-8.0 |
As good as Clayton Kershaw was, he struck out 11.5 batters per 9 innings less than Darvish and that was before Darvish was entirely recovered from TJ surgery. We should expect even better results this season now that his body is back to normal, and perhaps an AL Cy Young award on the way |
| 50 |
Jacob deGrom (NYM - SP) | 37 |
77 |
52.6 |
13.2 |
56.0 |
+6.0 |
Recovering from elbow surgery is a big deal and the fact that he allowed base runners at a much higher rate while striking out far fewer batters should tell you that drafting him above the likes of a Cole Hamels or Danny Salazar likely won't pay dividends |
| 51 |
Carlos Carrasco (CLE - SP) | 50 |
59 |
53.0 |
3.3 |
60.0 |
+9.0 |
Over his last 70 starts, Carlos has been among the best pitchers in baseball. The issue is that he hasn't eclipsed 185 innings during that time and those durability issues won't just disappear during the off-season. He has the upside to win a Cy Young, but is likely to disappoint if you expect just that out of him |
| 52 |
Andrew Benintendi (BOS - LF,CF) | 23 |
98 |
54.2 |
24.4 |
111.0 |
+59.0 |
|
| 53 |
Edwin Encarnacion (CLE - 1B,DH) | 47 |
63 |
55.2 |
5.7 |
24.0 |
-29.0 |
|
| 54 |
Nelson Cruz (SEA - RF,DH) | 24 |
85 |
56.0 |
19.6 |
36.0 |
-18.0 |
|
| 55 |
Kyle Schwarber (CHC - C,LF,DH) | 44 |
68 |
57.0 |
8.2 |
67.0 |
+12.0 |
|
| 56 |
Gerrit Cole (PIT - SP) | 47 |
75 |
57.6 |
9.4 |
94.0 |
+38.0 |
Cole battled through some elbow discomfort last season, which is a concern still heading into the season, but if he is healthy, his upside is virtually unlimited. The big righty sits in the upper 90s and has a career 3.23 ERA despite being just 25 years old. There is major upside here if you can afford the risk |
| 57 |
Chris Archer (TB - SP) | 51 |
65 |
57.6 |
4.5 |
50.0 |
-7.0 |
Please do not be the fantasy owner who looks at his stat line, sees 19 losses and labels him an 'avoid at all costs'. Rather, look at the underlying metrics, especially his second-half splits, and you can be confident the wins will come along with his dominating performances |
| 58 |
Andrew McCutchen (PIT - CF,RF) | 57 |
61 |
58.4 |
1.4 |
55.0 |
-3.0 |
|
| 59 |
Johnny Cueto (SF - SP) | 52 |
75 |
59.4 |
8.4 |
42.0 |
-17.0 |
Cueto did win 18 games last season with a sparkling WHIP to support it, but his K/9 rate has continued to drop and is now down to just 8.1. This indicates that his ceiling is likely limited to what he did last year, which is a stellar pitcher, but not elite by any means |
| 60 |
Justin Upton (LAA - LF,CF) | 47 |
67 |
60.4 |
7.2 |
76.0 |
+16.0 |
|
| 61 |
Brian Dozier (MIN - 2B) | 26 |
91 |
60.6 |
20.7 |
32.0 |
-29.0 |
|
| 62 |
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM - LF,CF) DL10 | 44 |
80 |
64.4 |
12.8 |
|
|
|
| 63 |
Buster Posey (SF - C,1B,DH) | 55 |
85 |
65.6 |
10.2 |
43.0 |
-20.0 |
|
| 64 |
Jean Segura (SEA - 2B,SS) | 64 |
76 |
68.4 |
4.8 |
61.0 |
-3.0 |
|
| 65 |
Eric Hosmer (KC - 1B) | 43 |
100 |
70.2 |
18.7 |
96.0 |
+31.0 |
|
| 66 |
David Dahl (COL - LF,CF) MiLB | 58 |
94 |
72.2 |
12.5 |
157.0 |
+91.0 |
|
| 67 |
Gary Sanchez (NYY - C,DH) | 68 |
97 |
74.8 |
11.3 |
54.0 |
-13.0 |
|
| 68 |
Chris Davis (BAL - 1B) | 60 |
103 |
75.0 |
14.8 |
72.0 |
+4.0 |
|
| 69 |
Matt Carpenter (STL - 1B,2B,3B) | 67 |
94 |
76.0 |
10.1 |
59.0 |
-10.0 |
|
| 70 |
Jackie Bradley (BOS - CF) | 70 |
85 |
76.6 |
6.5 |
113.0 |
+43.0 |
|
| 71 |
Carlos Martinez (STL - SP) | 45 |
111 |
77.6 |
21.7 |
63.0 |
-8.0 |
It is easy to look at Car-Mart, see the 30 wins and 3.03 ERA over his two full seasons to go with an electric fastball and just assume he strikes out a ton of hitters, but that is far from the truth. For whatever reason, his stuff pitches to contact so his ceiling is limited and his ERA likely to regress. |
| 72 |
Jason Kipnis (CLE - 2B) | 64 |
104 |
77.6 |
14.1 |
120.0 |
+48.0 |
|
| 73 |
Ian Desmond (COL - 1B,LF,CF) | 61 |
113 |
78.2 |
18.0 |
103.0 |
+30.0 |
|
| 74 |
Khris Davis (OAK - LF,DH) | 62 |
96 |
80.8 |
13.0 |
90.0 |
+16.0 |
|
| 75 |
Anthony Rendon (WSH - 3B) | 70 |
106 |
81.6 |
12.8 |
95.0 |
+20.0 |
|
| 76 |
Dee Gordon (MIA - 2B) | 69 |
107 |
82.8 |
13.4 |
57.0 |
-19.0 |
|
| 77 |
Kenley Jansen (LAD - RP) | 76 |
97 |
82.8 |
8.0 |
49.0 |
-28.0 |
Kenley's WHIP has been unworldly low the past two seasons and the K-rates are as high as ever. He is without a doubt an elite closer and should see another 35+ save opportunities |
| 78 |
Stephen Piscotty (STL - CF,RF) | 67 |
107 |
83.0 |
14.1 |
114.0 |
+36.0 |
|
| 79 |
Kyle Hendricks (CHC - SP) | 67 |
130 |
84.4 |
23.2 |
64.0 |
-15.0 |
Some are ready to herald Hendricks as the next Greg Maddux. The ERA was far above any other qualified pitcher, but when you look at the deeper statistics, it becomes clear that his ERA is likely to regress from 2.13 to near 3.10. While still great, it isn't enough to make up for the low strikeout rates and warrant a top 70 pick |
| 80 |
Willson Contreras (CHC - C,LF,1B) | 80 |
101 |
86.4 |
8.2 |
102.0 |
+22.0 |
|
| 81 |
Zach Britton (BAL - RP) | 73 |
121 |
87.8 |
17.0 |
62.0 |
-19.0 |
While Britton has sported obscene ERAs the past three seasons and especially last season, he is likely to see some regression in that area and his K's set him far back from the two elite closers |
| 82 |
Danny Salazar (CLE - SP) | 81 |
110 |
88.4 |
11.0 |
112.0 |
+30.0 |
Salazar is in the prime of his career at 27 years old and was in the driver's seat for the Cy Young award before a mild injury set him back. That should add up to much more than the 20th highest ranked pitcher, but your league-mates' miss can lead to your success. Nab this extreme upside if he falls, but also beware of the injury risk |
| 83 |
Billy Hamilton (CIN - CF) DL10 | 81 |
101 |
89.0 |
8.3 |
65.0 |
-18.0 |
|
| 84 |
Kevin Gausman (BAL - SP) | 50 |
129 |
89.8 |
25.8 |
133.0 |
+49.0 |
Don't be the guy who looks at his 453 IP and writes Gausman off for just having 23 wins. His deeper stats, especially in the second-half last year, when his K-rate soared and his OPS allowed dropped 60 points, tell us that the wins are well on the way |
| 85 |
Julio Teheran (ATL - SP) | 80 |
105 |
90.8 |
9.5 |
98.0 |
+13.0 |
After two extremely impressive seasons to launch his career, the 24-year-old slipped up" in 2015 with a 4.04 ERA and just 11 wins. Last year, Teheran put together a superb season with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. At just 26 years old in 2017, it is quite possible he could take another step forward |
| 86 |
Cole Hamels (TEX - SP) | 82 |
112 |
91.4 |
10.7 |
79.0 |
-7.0 |
Easily the most valueable thing about Hamels is that he has rattled off at least 30 starts in nine straight seasons and has a sub 3.30 ERA during that time. Being able to expect that from your #2 fantasy pitcher is a huge deal, even if he likely has a limited ceiling |
| 87 |
Aroldis Chapman (NYY - RP) | 87 |
101 |
91.8 |
5.7 |
51.0 |
-36.0 |
Unless Chapman were to get hurt, it is a virtual certainty that he will strikeout over 100 hitters and save 30+ games with a minuscule ERA and WHIP. The only question is whether the Yankees afford him enough save opportunities to be the top fantasy closer |
| 88 |
Edwin Diaz (SEA - RP) | 72 |
111 |
93.6 |
14.6 |
85.0 |
-3.0 |
If you are looking for the next Kenley Jansen, look no further. Diaz is likely to strike out near 110 batters this inning as a 23 year old with impeccable command and a stellar ERA. If he can get enough save opportunities with Seattle, he might end up the top closer in baseball |
| 89 |
Roberto Osuna (TOR - RP) | 89 |
107 |
95.2 |
7.8 |
91.0 |
+2.0 |
Osuna took the fantasy world by storm as a 20 year old rookie in 2015 then repeated with very similar numbers. You may think he has another gear yet to be discovered, but most scouts believe he has already reached his ceiling so don't expect 90+ strikeouts or anything absurd like Betances' 130+ |
| 90 |
Lance McCullers (HOU - SP) | 19 |
170 |
95.8 |
48.3 |
144.0 |
+54.0 |
Despite being just 23 years old, the Astros' true ace, McCullers, is averaging over 10 K/9 in his short career. The only other pitchers to accomplish that during the same time frame are all perennial Cy Young contenders. His ceiling is elite and he hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential |
| 91 |
Hanley Ramirez (BOS - 1B,DH) | 64 |
155 |
96.6 |
30.8 |
75.0 |
-16.0 |
|
| 92 |
Byron Buxton (MIN - CF) | 43 |
199 |
97.2 |
54.3 |
162.0 |
+70.0 |
|
| 93 |
Miguel Sano (MIN - 1B,3B,RF,DH) DL10 | 56 |
182 |
100.4 |
43.0 |
123.0 |
+30.0 |
|
| 94 |
Addison Russell (CHC - SS) | 70 |
171 |
101.4 |
36.0 |
118.0 |
+24.0 |
|
| 95 |
DJ LeMahieu (COL - 2B) | 84 |
134 |
102.2 |
17.0 |
81.0 |
-14.0 |
|
| 96 |
Todd Frazier (NYY - 1B,3B,DH) | 70 |
142 |
102.8 |
23.5 |
74.0 |
-22.0 |
|
| 97 |
Ian Kinsler (DET - 2B) | 56 |
167 |
103.4 |
35.7 |
68.0 |
-29.0 |
|
| 98 |
Adrian Beltre (TEX - 3B,DH) | 58 |
133 |
105.0 |
27.5 |
66.0 |
-32.0 |
|
| 99 |
Adam Eaton (WSH - CF,RF,LF) DL60 | 99 |
119 |
105.8 |
7.5 |
|
|
|
| 100 |
Zack Greinke (ARI - SP) | 77 |
173 |
107.2 |
34.0 |
97.0 |
-3.0 |
Greinke may have been the biggest disappointment in baseball season season, but let's imagine he bounces back to just 50% of what he was two years ago. We'd be talking about a 3.01 ERA with 16 wins and a 1.08 WHIP. Thats a spectacular fantasy asset |
| 101 |
Jonathan Lucroy (COL - C,1B,DH) | 74 |
139 |
107.8 |
22.2 |
69.0 |
-32.0 |
|
| 102 |
Nomar Mazara (TEX - LF,RF,DH) | 34 |
215 |
108.4 |
58.9 |
209.0 |
+107.0 |
|
| 103 |
Kenta Maeda (LAD - SP) | 92 |
150 |
110.6 |
20.2 |
99.0 |
-4.0 |
Maeda isn't your traditional strikeout pitcher but he did manage over a strikeout per inning during his rookie season. While his wins should regress a tick or two, the ERA and WHIP are well supported by the deeper numbers so expect a repeat performance of 2016's strong season |
| 104 |
Yoan Moncada (CWS - 2B,3B) | 55 |
200 |
111.0 |
47.8 |
237.0 |
+133.0 |
|
| 105 |
Jose Quintana (CHC - SP) | 84 |
182 |
112.6 |
35.8 |
92.0 |
-13.0 |
Despite moving Sale, the White Sox still have an ace in Quintana, who consistently throws 200+ innings with a sub 3.50 ERA. Last year was his best seaso yet so he is still trending upwards, as well. Eventually, the wins will catch up to his strong underlying numbers |
| 106 |
Andrew Miller (CLE - RP) | 102 |
133 |
115.0 |
11.6 |
115.0 |
+9.0 |
Miller is unlikely to save more than the dozen games he secured last year, but his innings could increase beyond 80, which would give us above 130 Ks to go along with a dynamite ERA and WHIP, making him a surefire top 10 reliever yet again |
| 107 |
Carlos Santana (CLE - 1B,RF,DH) | 83 |
188 |
116.0 |
37.8 |
101.0 |
-6.0 |
|
| 108 |
Lorenzo Cain (KC - CF,RF) | 94 |
169 |
116.2 |
27.0 |
124.0 |
+16.0 |
|
| 109 |
Adam Jones (BAL - CF) | 87 |
154 |
116.4 |
22.0 |
82.0 |
-27.0 |
|
| 110 |
Aaron Sanchez (TOR - SP) DL10 | 104 |
160 |
118.8 |
20.8 |
110.0 |
‐ |
It is easy to look at his 19-2 record with a 3.00 ERA and assume he will again be a top 10 pitcher in baseball, especially considering his age, but his xFIP makes it clear that both his record and ERA are due for major regression this season. He is being drafted in the 11th round, but should prove unworthy of a pick that early |
| 111 |
Dellin Betances (NYY - RP) | 113 |
131 |
119.2 |
6.9 |
163.0 |
+52.0 |
Betances took a big step back last season, which is hilarious because he was still among the best relievers in baseball. With at least 125 Ks each of the previous three seasons, he should be regarded as a top 10 reliever regardless of the minimal save projections |
| 112 |
Brandon Belt (SF - 1B,LF) DL10 | 93 |
167 |
119.4 |
25.0 |
150.0 |
+38.0 |
|
| 113 |
Javier Baez (CHC - 2B,3B,SS) | 52 |
205 |
121.0 |
48.8 |
139.0 |
+26.0 |
|
| 114 |
Dansby Swanson (ATL - SS) | 65 |
195 |
121.8 |
41.7 |
165.0 |
+51.0 |
|
| 115 |
Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B,DH) | 93 |
144 |
121.8 |
17.8 |
121.0 |
+6.0 |
|
| 116 |
Joc Pederson (LAD - CF) | 62 |
196 |
122.0 |
43.2 |
167.0 |
+51.0 |
|
| 117 |
Aaron Nola (PHI - SP) | 98 |
140 |
122.2 |
15.7 |
164.0 |
+47.0 |
In just his second year in the Big Leagues, Nola was sensational to start the season. His xFIP suggested he was among the elite pitchers in baseball, even above 12-0 Stephen Strasburg. Knowing that the talent is right under the surface, it should be easy to forgive the unlucky 6 wins with a 4.78 ERA and expect a superb 2017 |
| 118 |
Mark Melancon (SF - RP) | 118 |
131 |
123.2 |
4.7 |
77.0 |
-41.0 |
Although he isn't the top strikeout pitcher, Melancon's consistently low ERA and terrific WHIP should have prospective fantasy owners drooling. The thought of him moving to the best pitchers park in baseball is just bonus |
| 119 |
J.T. Realmuto (MIA - C,1B) | 110 |
143 |
123.4 |
12.4 |
132.0 |
+13.0 |
|
| 120 |
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY - SP) | 79 |
211 |
124.0 |
46.2 |
73.0 |
-47.0 |
Tanaka has a knack for getting hitters out without she strikeout, but because he is unlikely to surpass 180 Ks, his upside is limited. In fact, wins and ERA regression are both expected based on underlying metrics so enter your drafts knowing his limits and expectations |
| 121 |
Craig Kimbrel (BOS - RP) | 117 |
136 |
124.8 |
6.9 |
88.0 |
-33.0 |
No more are the days where Kimbrel strikes out 16 hitters per nine innings or keeps a WHIP below 0.9, in fact, his BB-rate was significantly higher last season. Be careful to not get ahead of yourself, drafting based on who he has been |
| 122 |
Kenneth Giles (HOU - RP) | 99 |
164 |
125.0 |
21.3 |
106.0 |
-16.0 |
You may be looking at his career stat line and wondering what in the world happened last year. Yes, the ERA dropped from 1.80 to 4.11, but don't be alarmed, the perephial stats were actually better! He went from 11.2 K/9 all the way up to 14.0 He just might strike out 120 hitters this season and the ERA will come back down to earth |
| 123 |
Matt Kemp (ATL - LF,RF,DH) | 71 |
170 |
126.8 |
32.9 |
86.0 |
-37.0 |
|
| 124 |
Michael Fulmer (DET - SP) | 109 |
168 |
127.2 |
21.3 |
|
|
Fulmer was able to produce a tremendous 3.06 ERA during his rookie campaign, but his strikeouts are lacking so his ceiling is limited. Both the ERA and WHIP are likely to regress based on what underlying metrics are telling us |
| 125 |
Mark Trumbo (BAL - RF,DH) | 107 |
157 |
127.6 |
17.2 |
71.0 |
-54.0 |
|
| 126 |
Julio Urias (LAD - SP) MiLB | 71 |
190 |
128.2 |
37.7 |
|
|
Urias doesn't quite have a guaranteed spot in the Dodgers' deep rotation despite being a top five prospect. With that being said, he is still just 20 years old but was really impressive in his 77 inning debut. His ceiling is astronomical so if you can afford the risk, he might bring a huge payoff |
| 127 |
Jonathan Gray (COL - SP) | 108 |
159 |
130.4 |
16.4 |
174.0 |
+47.0 |
Gray may well be the most talented pitcher in Rockies' history thanks to a huge fastball that doesn't allow hitters to put the ball into play, which is extremely dangerous in Coors. With that being said, Coors boosts ERAs by about 25% so even with all the K's, his fantasy ceiling is limited this year |
| 128 |
Jake Lamb (ARI - 3B) | 108 |
146 |
130.6 |
13.5 |
151.0 |
+23.0 |
|
| 129 |
Jeurys Familia (NYM - RP) | 127 |
138 |
130.8 |
4.1 |
116.0 |
-13.0 |
After Oh, Giles and Davis, there is a fairly significant drop off to Familia, who is very good, but not quite on the same level. His WHIP, expected ERA and K-rate are all significantly worse than the above group, but he managed 51 saves because of all the opportunities, which aren't guaranteed to carry over into this season |
| 130 |
Evan Longoria (TB - 3B,DH) | 90 |
183 |
131.6 |
29.7 |
87.0 |
-43.0 |
|
| 131 |
Matt Harvey (NYM - SP) | 99 |
180 |
132.2 |
26.4 |
138.0 |
+7.0 |
In 2013, Harvey was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He bounced back from injury in miraculous fashion, but bombed the 2016 campaign. Seeing that he is still in the prime years of his career, going back to a Cy Young contender is entirely possible, but the lottery ticket doesn't come without significant risk |
| 132 |
Wade Davis (CHC - RP) | 126 |
157 |
134.0 |
11.7 |
84.0 |
-48.0 |
If Wade Davis is anything like he was before injury, you are getting a top three reliever for the price of a top 12 guy. We may be looking at 110 strikeouts and a sub 1.00 ERA with a league leading WHIP and 40+ saves |
| 133 |
Steven Matz (NYM - SP) DL60 | 132 |
146 |
135.8 |
5.2 |
|
|
The 6'2 lefty has been referred to as a poor man's Tom Glavine. Now, Glavine never had the continual arm issues that Matz has been dealing with for several years but the pure stuff can make him a top 15 fantasy pitcher if he is able to stay on the field |
| 134 |
Marcus Stroman (TOR - SP) | 95 |
195 |
136.2 |
32.6 |
127.0 |
-7.0 |
We all continue to hear that Stroman is oozing with potential and bound to take the league by storm, but nothing among his 7.3 K/9, 9.2 H/9 or any other metric suggest he is destined to take a big leap forward any time soon |
| 135 |
Sean Manaea (OAK - SP) | 89 |
166 |
137.0 |
27.1 |
171.0 |
+36.0 |
In his rookie season, Manaea tarted off looking like a mediocre pitcher, but took a few big steps forward in the second half. His first half WHIP was 1.39, while his second half dropped all the way to 1.02. Likewise, his ERA plummeted and k-rate increased. If he can carry that momentum into the season, he will be well worth a mid-round pick |
| 136 |
Seung-Hwan Oh (STL - RP) | 108 |
174 |
138.4 |
21.0 |
78.0 |
-58.0 |
The Final Boss established himself as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball last season with 103 strikeouts in 79 innings. The saves are bound to come in bunches as the Cardinals once again have a very competitive team so don't hesitate to get him on your roster |
| 137 |
Jameson Taillon (PIT - SP) | 136 |
145 |
139.0 |
3.3 |
153.0 |
+16.0 |
You probably keep hearing that Taillon was a beast for the Pirates in the second half, but nothing from his stat line supports the luck-supported 3.38 ERA. Expect regression on that front and that he may hit a wall once he passes 150 IP this season for the first time in his career |
| 138 |
Yasmani Grandal (LAD - C) | 110 |
166 |
139.4 |
18.2 |
145.0 |
+7.0 |
|
| 139 |
Marcell Ozuna (MIA - LF,CF,RF) | 121 |
157 |
141.0 |
12.4 |
160.0 |
+21.0 |
|
| 140 |
Randal Grichuk (STL - LF,CF,RF) | 135 |
160 |
141.6 |
9.4 |
193.0 |
+53.0 |
|
| 141 |
Maikel Franco (PHI - 3B) | 123 |
165 |
143.4 |
13.7 |
135.0 |
-6.0 |
|
| 142 |
Tyler Glasnow (PIT - SP) | 53 |
223 |
145.4 |
54.6 |
314.0 |
+172.0 |
Over the past three seasons, the 6'8 rookie with a blazing fastball, has completley mowed down minor league hitters with dazzling strikeout numbers and an ERA down below 2.00. He struggled a bit in his MLB debut because he needs work on his command but the potential is there for him to take over the world |
| 143 |
Jose Bautista (TOR - RF,3B,DH) | 134 |
170 |
145.4 |
12.6 |
83.0 |
-60.0 |
|
| 144 |
Dustin Pedroia (BOS - 2B) | 112 |
178 |
146.6 |
21.3 |
109.0 |
-35.0 |
|
| 145 |
Brad Miller (TB - 1B,2B,SS,DH) | 119 |
168 |
147.2 |
16.6 |
152.0 |
+7.0 |
|
| 146 |
Danny Duffy (KC - SP,RP) | 115 |
177 |
147.6 |
20.4 |
93.0 |
-53.0 |
The Royals' lefty ace took a big leap forward last year by posting 188 Ks in just 179 innings. Seeing that he should see a full season in the rotation, 220 Ks and 15 wins with a strong ERA and WHIP is not out of the question |
| 147 |
Salvador Perez (KC - C,DH) | 144 |
156 |
148.0 |
4.2 |
148.0 |
+1.0 |
|
| 148 |
Aledmys Diaz (STL - SS) MiLB | 115 |
186 |
150.4 |
22.5 |
131.0 |
-17.0 |
|
| 149 |
Jose Ramirez (CLE - 2B,3B,LF) | 113 |
204 |
151.6 |
29.9 |
107.0 |
-42.0 |
|
| 150 |
Sonny Gray (NYY - SP) | 142 |
163 |
151.8 |
6.8 |
223.0 |
+73.0 |
Gray will be one of the most polarizing pitchers this season thanks to a drop in ERA from 2.73 to 5.69 and in WHIP from 1.082 to 1.496 in just one season. He unquestionably has Cy Young potential, but could blow up your fantasy rotation in a repeat performance from 2016 |
| 151 |
Felix Hernandez (SEA - SP) | 105 |
232 |
153.8 |
42.8 |
117.0 |
-34.0 |
Although it was just two years ago, King Felix is far separated from the days of posting huge strikeout rates with a league leading WHIP and sub 2.30 ERA. If you draft him, that is not the pitcher you are getting. Rather, expect lots of innings with a 3.50+ ERA and much lower K-rates |
| 152 |
Odubel Herrera (PHI - CF) | 123 |
202 |
154.4 |
26.2 |
125.0 |
-27.0 |
|
| 153 |
Cody Allen (CLE - RP) | 127 |
183 |
154.4 |
17.9 |
108.0 |
-45.0 |
Cody Allen has quietly been one of the top closers in baseball over the past three years, with 91, 99 and 87 Ks in those seasons with a sub 3.00 ERA in each. The only reason he isn't commonly recognized as such is because of save opportunities, which should see positive regression this season |
| 154 |
Rick Porcello (BOS - SP) | 95 |
231 |
154.8 |
43.6 |
89.0 |
-65.0 |
Porcello's 22 wins and superb ERA were constructs of the luckiest MLB season in regards to underlying metrics. His expected ERA based on every deep number suggest he was outside the top 25 pitchers in baseball, let alone the top pitcher in the AL. Significant regression should be expected and factored into his draft stock |
| 155 |
Carlos Rodon (CWS - SP) DL10 | 92 |
214 |
157.0 |
38.8 |
191.0 |
+36.0 |
This former top 10 prospect has dealt with some control issues to begin his career, but really got his stuff together in the second-half, dropping his OPS against from .812 to .696 with an increased K-rate. If he can keep up that trend, we may be looking at a top 20 fantasy pitcher this season |
| 156 |
Kole Calhoun (LAA - RF) | 138 |
177 |
158.6 |
12.5 |
156.0 |
‐ |
|
| 157 |
Evan Gattis (HOU - C,DH) | 135 |
180 |
158.8 |
14.6 |
129.0 |
-28.0 |
|
| 158 |
Nick Castellanos (DET - 3B,RF) | 91 |
291 |
159.2 |
70.7 |
206.0 |
+48.0 |
|
| 159 |
Dallas Keuchel (HOU - SP) | 120 |
225 |
160.8 |
35.0 |
126.0 |
-33.0 |
2015's Cy Young winner saw a significant increase in his hits allowed rate, walk rate and home run rate with a severe drop in his strikeout rate. It may be intriguing to trying grabbing such a recent Cy Young winner, but the facts that he pitched so poorly and has been dealing with a shoulder injury are both major red flags |
| 160 |
Vincent Velasquez (PHI - SP) DL60 | 125 |
183 |
161.2 |
20.4 |
|
|
If you are looking for upside, look no further. During the first-half last season, Velasquez broke out for an 8-2 record and 3.32 ERA with a terrific 10.6 K/9. His second-half was a different story, hence the low ADP, but knowing he has the potential to strikeout 220 with a strong ERA should turn every fantasy owners' head |
| 161 |
Yasiel Puig (LAD - RF) | 83 |
257 |
163.6 |
55.4 |
202.0 |
+41.0 |
|
| 162 |
Michael Conforto (NYM - LF,CF,RF) DL10 | 122 |
191 |
163.8 |
23.0 |
|
|
|
| 163 |
Michael Brantley (CLE - LF) DL10 | 120 |
212 |
165.0 |
29.1 |
159.0 |
-4.0 |
|
| 164 |
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD - 1B) | 125 |
216 |
165.0 |
30.0 |
146.0 |
-18.0 |
|
| 165 |
David Robertson (NYY - RP) | 118 |
189 |
165.6 |
26.0 |
134.0 |
-31.0 |
Over the past three seasons, there has been a clear downward trend with Robertson with a rising BAA and a plummeting K/9 rate. With that being said, he was so great when the trend began that he is still a very impressive closer who is stuck in a bad situation for save opportunities |
| 166 |
Lucas Giolito (CWS - SP) | 79 |
166 |
132.0 |
36.6 |
379.0 |
+213.0 |
Some considered Giolito the top overall prospect in baseball before he struggled in his short MLB debut. The fact of the matter is, while his numbers weren't dominant, they were significantly better than Syndergaard's the year before his breakout rookie season and Giolito is every bit as talented |
| 167 |
Taijuan Walker (ARI - SP) | 143 |
203 |
166.6 |
20.3 |
192.0 |
+25.0 |
Taijuan obviously takes a major hit moving from Seattle to Arizona for his home ballpark, and his draft stock will suffer from hype-fatigue, but bare in mind that he is still just 24 years old and still possesses some of the best stuff in the majors. There were stints where he was filthy dominant, and its possible that could happen for an entire season |
| 168 |
Drew Pomeranz (BOS - SP) | 151 |
201 |
168.4 |
17.7 |
228.0 |
+60.0 |
After being traded to the Red Sox, Pomeranz had a steep drop off in virtually every stat, so owners are going to be quite low on him this season, but he is still coming into the prime of his career and is coming off a terrific 170 combined innings from last season so make of that what you will |
| 169 |
Adam Duvall (CIN - LF,RF) | 104 |
207 |
168.6 |
36.1 |
142.0 |
-27.0 |
|
| 170 |
Kelvin Herrera (KC - RP) | 148 |
199 |
168.6 |
18.4 |
105.0 |
-65.0 |
The Royals new closer has been excellent over the past three seasons, but last year he was actually much better, striking out 10.8 K/9 with a sub 1.00 WHIP for the first time in his career. Now that the job is all his, he should surge up the rankings this season |
| 171 |
Yasmany Tomas (ARI - LF,RF) DL60 | 120 |
208 |
171.0 |
29.1 |
|
|
|
| 172 |
Greg Bird (NYY - 1B) | 122 |
211 |
172.4 |
30.3 |
182.0 |
+10.0 |
|
| 173 |
Justin Turner (LAD - 3B) | 140 |
239 |
175.2 |
34.4 |
104.0 |
-69.0 |
|
| 174 |
Jorge Soler (KC - LF,RF,DH) | 59 |
292 |
176.0 |
73.7 |
329.0 |
+155.0 |
|
| 175 |
Jake Odorizzi (TB - SP) | 169 |
191 |
176.4 |
7.6 |
172.0 |
-3.0 |
Odorizzi is coming into the prime years of his career and has been making a name for himself as a consistent fantasy asset that will provide a solid ERA and WHIP with enough Ks to be worthy of a mid-round pick |
| 176 |
Hunter Pence (SF - RF) | 142 |
214 |
177.4 |
22.8 |
184.0 |
+8.0 |
|
| 177 |
Ryon Healy (OAK - 1B,3B,DH) | 147 |
217 |
178.6 |
22.3 |
195.0 |
+18.0 |
|
| 178 |
Joey Gallo (TEX - 1B,3B,LF) | 96 |
301 |
179.8 |
67.5 |
|
|
|
| 179 |
Victor Martinez (DET - 1B,DH) DL60 | 137 |
210 |
180.4 |
24.7 |
186.0 |
+7.0 |
|
| 180 |
Dexter Fowler (STL - CF) | 162 |
196 |
181.4 |
11.4 |
155.0 |
-25.0 |
|
| 181 |
Jay Bruce (CLE - 1B,RF) | 152 |
208 |
182.0 |
18.0 |
169.0 |
-12.0 |
|
| 182 |
Devon Travis (TOR - 2B) DL60 | 159 |
222 |
183.6 |
21.2 |
210.0 |
+28.0 |
|
| 183 |
Robbie Ray (ARI - SP) | 158 |
200 |
183.8 |
14.4 |
189.0 |
+6.0 |
Last season, Ray finished 21st ALL-TIME for single season K/9 leaders. Yes, the ERA was terrible and he pitches in Coors Field lite, but you can't pass up potentially 250 Ks in the 20th round |
| 184 |
Alexander Colome (TB - RP) | 171 |
194 |
185.8 |
7.9 |
122.0 |
-62.0 |
Colome was initially supposed to be a starting pitcher last season, but when Boxberger went down, Colome was thrown into the role and really excelled with 11.3 K/9, a stellar 1.91 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. If he can hang onto the job over Boxberger, there is no reason why he shouldn't be great once again |
| 185 |
Anthony DeSclafani (CIN - SP) DL60 | 155 |
235 |
186.0 |
27.2 |
254.0 |
+69.0 |
DeScalfani was a big sleeper name this time last year and the ERA will make people claim they were right, but his underlying stats suggest that 3.28 ERA was luck-driven. Expect regression in that regard and limited wins as a result of the likely inflated ERA |
| 186 |
Troy Tulowitzki (TOR - SS) DL60 | 154 |
218 |
186.2 |
20.4 |
|
|
|
| 187 |
Ender Inciarte (ATL - LF,CF) | 172 |
205 |
186.4 |
10.8 |
197.0 |
+10.0 |
|
| 188 |
Michael Pineda (NYY - SP) DL60 | 156 |
209 |
188.6 |
18.1 |
|
|
Michael Pineda was far and away the most unlucky pitcher in baseball last season in regards to ERA and wins. His ERA was 67th out of 73 qualified starting pitchers and he won just 6 games, but his xFIP was 3rd which typically warrants 14-17 wins. The wins will come and the ERA will see plenty of positive regression |
| 189 |
Hunter Renfroe (SD - RF) | 136 |
221 |
189.8 |
29.4 |
222.0 |
+33.0 |
|
| 190 |
Rich Hill (LAD - SP) | 156 |
219 |
191.4 |
21.6 |
119.0 |
-71.0 |
Since Rich Hill re-entered the rotation, he is second in baseball with a 2.00 ERA, well ahead of third place, Jake Arrieta (2.39) and fourth place, Jacob deGrom (2.76). He also had 10.6 K/9 during that time. To put it simply, he is dominant when he pitches. The problem is, that might not be as often as we hope. If he does throw 160 IP, he is a complete steal in the second half of the draft |
| 191 |
John Lackey (CHC - SP) | 116 |
245 |
191.6 |
42.5 |
136.0 |
-55.0 |
It is remarkable that as a 36 and 37 year old, Lackey has posted two of his top three career seasons. The wins haven't exactly been there, but the ERA and supporting metrics have been enough to earn most pitchers 30 wins in that time. 38 years old is a tough hurdle for many, but Lackey gives us every reason to trust him once again |
| 192 |
Domingo Santana (MIL - RF) | 152 |
235 |
191.8 |
26.4 |
276.0 |
+84.0 |
|
| 193 |
Francisco Rodriguez (WSH - RP) MiLB | 150 |
215 |
192.6 |
23.6 |
147.0 |
-46.0 |
Although K-Rod is now 35 years old, he still holds the closer job in Detroit, however, because of the age, his k-rate has plummeted where he is now striking out just 40% of the hitters some of the elite closers are, with a significantly worse ERA and WHIP. Don't buy him just because he has a ton of saves the past three years, those opportunities are fickle and no guarantee to carry over from season to season |
| 194 |
Logan Forsythe (LAD - 2B,3B) | 179 |
207 |
193.6 |
9.3 |
194.0 |
‐ |
|
| 195 |
Tommy Joseph (PHI - 1B) | 163 |
219 |
195.4 |
18.4 |
238.0 |
+43.0 |
|
| 196 |
Jose Peraza (CIN - 2B,SS,LF,CF) | 172 |
247 |
195.6 |
27.3 |
130.0 |
-66.0 |
|
| 197 |
Joe Ross (WSH - SP) DL60 | 185 |
215 |
196.0 |
10.4 |
|
|
Joe Ross is getting loads of hype thanks to an impressive 3.52 cumulative ERA as a 22 and 23 year old, but the ERA wasn't driven by dominating metrics. Rather, his deeper stats were mediocre, which signals for ERA regression in 2017 |
| 198 |
A.J. Reed (HOU - 1B) MiLB | 69 |
222 |
171.3 |
59.9 |
|
|
|
| 199 |
Elvis Andrus (TEX - SS) | 148 |
274 |
198.2 |
42.2 |
149.0 |
-50.0 |
|
| 200 |
Jonathan Schoop (BAL - 2B) | 180 |
234 |
200.0 |
18.7 |
170.0 |
-30.0 |
|
| 201 |
Jeff Samardzija (SF - SP) | 149 |
237 |
201.8 |
29.5 |
168.0 |
-33.0 |
Samardzija saw the expected 1.00+ drop in his ERA from season to season thanks to the ballpark and league change, but his strikeout rate and WHIP remained unimpressive. You could make the case that he could get a bounceback season to prominence in 2017, but at 32 years-old, it seems unlikely |
| 202 |
James Paxton (SEA - SP) | 197 |
206 |
202.4 |
3.4 |
154.0 |
-48.0 |
If James Paxton could stay on the mound, the Mariners might have a nice piece for their rotation, but in three seasons he has only been able to compile 260 innings. His WHIP has been fairly high all along and the K's not enough to off-set all the concerns so it is best to avoid him unless he falls late into your drafts |
| 203 |
Blake Snell (TB - SP) | 141 |
277 |
203.8 |
43.3 |
257.0 |
+54.0 |
This former top 15 prospect and Minor League Pitcher of the Year, was one of the top strikeout pitchers per inning in the majors last season. His control took a big step backwards, but Snell has proved himself enough that we can expect the WHIP to get into shape enough to help fantasy owners this season with all those strikeouts |
| 204 |
Drew Smyly (SEA - SP) DL60 | 175 |
250 |
204.4 |
25.2 |
|
|
There is little to like about Smyly outside of a luck-driven ERA for three half-seasons before last year's disasterous 4.88 ERA. The strikeouts went backwards and he is unlikely to win enough games to be a useful fantasy contributor in leagues this season |
| 205 |
Tanner Roark (WSH - SP) | 141 |
268 |
208.4 |
40.7 |
137.0 |
-68.0 |
Almost unbelievably, Roark's career ERA is just 3.01 through 573 innings. We should expect that to rise a bit this season, along with the 16 wins dropping quite a bit, but Roark does pitch to soft contact so he shouldn't entirely implode |
| 206 |
Russell Martin (TOR - C,3B) | 158 |
207 |
185.8 |
21.7 |
173.0 |
-33.0 |
|
| 207 |
C.J. Cron (LAA - 1B) | 197 |
230 |
209.2 |
11.2 |
253.0 |
+46.0 |
|
| 208 |
A.J. Ramos (NYM - RP) | 192 |
228 |
210.2 |
11.5 |
143.0 |
-65.0 |
Ramos has been solid but unspectacular in his two years as the Marlins closer. He would be a nice late-draft pickup if it weren't for the fact that a more dominant reliever, Kyle Barraclough, was waiting in the wings behind him ready to take his job at the first slip up |
| 209 |
Mike Moustakas (KC - 3B,DH) | 161 |
237 |
211.4 |
27.3 |
205.0 |
-4.0 |
|
| 210 |
Dylan Bundy (BAL - SP,RP) | 146 |
211 |
189.5 |
26.3 |
240.0 |
+30.0 |
It was beggining to look like Bundy's career was never going to get going because of all the injury problems. he finally got his opportunity last year, posting a low K-9 and .305 batting BAA in the first-half, but he turned it around quickly in the second half with over a strikeout per inning and a strong .231 BAA. If he continues that progress, he will be a tremendous mid-round value |
| 211 |
Kolten Wong (STL - 2B,CF) | 114 |
226 |
191.0 |
44.8 |
310.0 |
+99.0 |
|
| 212 |
Melky Cabrera (KC - LF,RF,DH) | 179 |
244 |
214.2 |
20.9 |
215.0 |
+3.0 |
|
| 213 |
Hector Neris (PHI - RP) | 115 |
282 |
214.6 |
55.2 |
242.0 |
+29.0 |
Let in sink in for a minute that the Phillies' new closer struck out 102 hitters last season to go with a sparkling ERA and WHIP. Now you can join me in wondering why his ADP is so low. Don't hesitate to go up and get this guy in the middle of drafts |
| 214 |
Kendrys Morales (TOR - 1B,RF,DH) | 167 |
214 |
193.3 |
21.1 |
141.0 |
-73.0 |
|
| 215 |
Max Kepler (MIN - CF,RF) | 137 |
215 |
194.3 |
33.1 |
243.0 |
+28.0 |
|
| 216 |
Kevin Kiermaier (TB - CF) | 176 |
264 |
216.0 |
28.2 |
200.0 |
-16.0 |
|
| 217 |
Jose De Leon (TB - SP) MiLB | 166 |
218 |
198.3 |
21.3 |
|
|
|
| 218 |
Matt Shoemaker (LAA - SP) DL60 | 175 |
247 |
219.6 |
25.3 |
|
|
In May and June last season, Shoemaker was beginning to look like one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. His rest of the season suggest that was a fluke, but knowing the talent to dominate is within him needs to be written on the back of your mind |
| 219 |
Brian McCann (HOU - C,DH) | 145 |
227 |
202.5 |
33.4 |
176.0 |
-43.0 |
|
| 220 |
Ben Zobrist (CHC - 2B,LF,RF,1B,SS) | 176 |
255 |
223.2 |
27.0 |
140.0 |
-80.0 |
|
| 221 |
Keon Broxton (MIL - CF) | 209 |
246 |
223.8 |
12.1 |
175.0 |
-46.0 |
|
| 222 |
Josh Bell (PIT - 1B,RF) | 116 |
260 |
205.5 |
53.8 |
306.0 |
+84.0 |
|
| 223 |
Adam Wainwright (STL - SP) DL10 | 173 |
267 |
225.6 |
30.5 |
190.0 |
-33.0 |
Typically when a 34 year old starting pitcher posts a 4.62 ERA after a long career, you throw your hands up and call his career over. Wainwright isn't your typical 35-year-old. He is now 22 months away from Tommy John, and remember, his 2nd season after his first full year missed, his ERA dropped from 3.94 to 2.94. The same could happen again this year |
| 224 |
Marco Estrada (TOR - SP) | 186 |
265 |
225.6 |
25.2 |
179.0 |
-45.0 |
Estrada was an all-star for the first time in his career last season and has posted back to back seasons with an ERA under 3.50 thanks to the best BAA in the AL each season, but at 33 years old, you would be wise to be wary of old-man regression |
| 225 |
Marcus Semien (OAK - SS) | 223 |
232 |
226.6 |
3.4 |
235.0 |
+10.0 |
|
| 226 |
Raisel Iglesias (CIN - SP,RP) | 202 |
272 |
227.2 |
24.4 |
180.0 |
-46.0 |
Last season, Iglesias was impressive in 78 innings, but it was primarily out of the bullpen. If he does, in fact, make the starting rotation, his 1.14 WHIP, 2.53 ERA and 9.5 K/9 are all primed to go backwards as he logs more innings |
| 227 |
Garrett Richards (LAA - SP) | 218 |
240 |
227.4 |
7.6 |
203.0 |
-24.0 |
Richards opted away from surgery so there remains a threat for re-injury, but if he can stay on the field, he is a special pitcher. He doesn't miss a ton of bats, but no one gets solid contact on him so the ERA is likely to be terrific and he is a candidate to win plenty of games |
| 228 |
Cameron Bedrosian (LAA - RP) | 118 |
270 |
210.0 |
56.1 |
187.0 |
-41.0 |
It isn't quite clear whether the Angels will give the job to Cam or Huston Street, but you should approach the situation with confidence. In Bedrosian's 40 innings last season, he was one of the most impressive relief pitchers in baseball with 11.4 K/9 and a superb 1.12 ERA |
| 229 |
Tim Anderson (CWS - SS) | 161 |
296 |
229.0 |
42.8 |
199.0 |
-30.0 |
|
| 230 |
Brandon Crawford (SF - SS) | 201 |
276 |
230.6 |
25.1 |
204.0 |
-26.0 |
|
| 231 |
Jung-Ho Kang (PIT - 3B) RST | 199 |
279 |
231.0 |
27.2 |
|
|
|
| 232 |
Raimel Tapia (COL - LF,CF,RF) | 93 |
232 |
185.7 |
65.5 |
|
|
|
| 233 |
Neil Walker (MIL - 1B,2B) | 224 |
242 |
232.2 |
5.9 |
232.0 |
-1.0 |
|
| 234 |
Orlando Arcia (MIL - SS) | 184 |
234 |
216.0 |
20.5 |
301.0 |
+67.0 |
|
| 235 |
Jose Berrios (MIN - SP) | 196 |
235 |
216.0 |
15.3 |
|
|
|
| 236 |
Matt Moore (SF - SP) | 227 |
244 |
236.2 |
5.4 |
178.0 |
-58.0 |
The Giants' lefty has a big arm and is a former top prospect, but the strikeouts have never been there consistently and he has never displayed enough command to be relied upon for any of the four standard SP categories |
| 237 |
Tom Murphy (COL - C) | 164 |
257 |
224.8 |
35.8 |
271.0 |
+34.0 |
|
| 238 |
Yulieski Gurriel (HOU - 1B,3B) | 224 |
259 |
240.2 |
11.5 |
262.0 |
+24.0 |
|
| 239 |
Carlos Gomez (TEX - LF,CF,RF) | 228 |
254 |
240.4 |
8.2 |
185.0 |
-54.0 |
|
| 240 |
Carlos Beltran (HOU - LF,RF,DH) | 193 |
254 |
226.5 |
22.6 |
183.0 |
-57.0 |
|
| 241 |
Jerad Eickhoff (PHI - SP) DL60 | 210 |
269 |
241.4 |
18.8 |
208.0 |
-33.0 |
Eickhoff began the season on fire, catching the NL East off guard. As the season went on, the hype fell off, but his underlying statistics actually improved. He is a sneaky late-round pick that should give a reliable ERA and WHIP with enough strikeouts to help out |
| 242 |
Curtis Granderson (LAD - LF,CF,RF) | 204 |
272 |
242.4 |
22.1 |
219.0 |
-23.0 |
|
| 243 |
Jason Heyward (CHC - CF,RF) | 224 |
258 |
243.8 |
11.1 |
247.0 |
+4.0 |
|
| 244 |
Luke Weaver (STL - SP) | 198 |
245 |
230.5 |
19.3 |
|
|
|
| 245 |
C.J. Edwards (CHC - RP) | 219 |
263 |
245.2 |
14.6 |
282.0 |
+37.0 |
|
| 246 |
Eduardo Nunez (BOS - 2B,3B,SS,LF) | 161 |
259 |
208.3 |
40.1 |
128.0 |
-118.0 |
|
| 247 |
Starlin Castro (NYY - 2B) | 189 |
246 |
231.8 |
24.7 |
225.0 |
-22.0 |
|
| 248 |
Tyler Anderson (COL - SP) | 217 |
270 |
246.4 |
17.0 |
369.0 |
+121.0 |
The Rockies are much improved this season so many more than 5 wins could be in store for the big lefty. With that being said, his 3.54 ERA is almost certainly not going to be duplicated based on what underlying stats signify so if you are willing to take the Coors Field risk, go into it knowing that |
| 249 |
Alexander Reyes (STL - SP,RP) DL60 | 209 |
250 |
233.0 |
15.6 |
|
|
While Reyes does have some of the best pure stuff in the major leagues already and posted a sparkling 1.57 ERA in his 46 inning rookie debut, that doesn't necessarily mean he is polished. His command was off and on all season so we could see him turn into Jose Berrios overnight, or perhaps Noah Syndergaard |
| 250 |
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA - SP) DL60 | 177 |
261 |
233.5 |
33.0 |
245.0 |
-5.0 |
Iwakuma saw a major spike from 8.1 to 9.9 H/9 last season with his age 35 season. While his career ERA is still 3.39, he will more than likely sit above 4.00 again this season with limited strikeout numbers |
| 251 |
Steven Souza (TB - RF) | 190 |
249 |
234.0 |
25.4 |
378.0 |
+127.0 |
|
| 252 |
Mike Napoli (TEX - 1B,DH) | 187 |
262 |
235.3 |
29.2 |
188.0 |
-64.0 |
|
| 253 |
Sam Dyson (SF - RP) | 202 |
251 |
235.3 |
19.9 |
161.0 |
-92.0 |
Dyson is by no means your typical flame-throwing closer, but he did get the job done last season, saving 38 games. With that being said, there are a few relievers in this bullpen who seem to fit the mold better, so it may be only a matter of time until Keone Kela takes the job for himself |
| 254 |
Tony Watson (LAD - RP) | 184 |
257 |
236.0 |
30.1 |
158.0 |
-96.0 |
The Pirates' current closer is not a strikeout machine, but he does have a dazzling ERA over the past four season. With that being said, he took a big step backwards last season and if that continues, you can believe he will be replaced for the closer role in time |
| 255 |
Manuel Margot (SD - CF) | 162 |
285 |
238.3 |
45.9 |
273.0 |
+18.0 |
|
| 256 |
Jharel Cotton (OAK - SP) | 217 |
300 |
253.0 |
27.3 |
231.0 |
-25.0 |
Last year, Cotton was significantly better than his 4.31 Triple-A ERA indicated. His 1.084 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 were among the top marks in a hitter-friendly league, then he proceeded to allow very few hitters on base in his debut. Cotton is polished and ready to roll for the A's in 2017 |
| 257 |
Luis Severino (NYY - SP,RP) | 216 |
256 |
242.3 |
16.3 |
347.0 |
+90.0 |
|
| 258 |
Aaron Judge (NYY - RF,DH) | 204 |
257 |
243.3 |
22.7 |
251.0 |
-7.0 |
|
| 259 |
Mitch Haniger (SEA - LF,CF,RF) | 185 |
276 |
244.3 |
35.0 |
287.0 |
+28.0 |
|
| 260 |
Welington Castillo (BAL - C,DH) | 230 |
260 |
245.8 |
14.3 |
196.0 |
-64.0 |
|
| 261 |
Ryan Madson (WSH - RP) | 198 |
266 |
246.5 |
28.1 |
214.0 |
-47.0 |
Oakland is presumably going to let him get the first crack at the closer job, but hanging onto it for the entire year is a different story, especially when you consider that none of his statistics were particularly impressive and he is now 36 years old |
| 262 |
J.A. Happ (TOR - SP) | 169 |
262 |
231.0 |
43.8 |
166.0 |
-96.0 |
|
| 263 |
Didi Gregorius (NYY - SS) | 218 |
263 |
249.8 |
18.6 |
246.0 |
-17.0 |
|
| 264 |
Gio Gonzalez (WSH - SP) | 212 |
264 |
250.5 |
22.2 |
275.0 |
+11.0 |
Gonzalez has at least 31 games started in 6 of his previous 7 seasons, but is now throwing just over 5 innings per start. What's more is that his WHIP has been 1.38 over the previous two seasons and his K-rate depressed so the projections rightfully don't line up with the hype of his name |
| 265 |
Corey Dickerson (TB - LF,DH) | 228 |
265 |
251.3 |
15.3 |
297.0 |
+32.0 |
|
| 266 |
David Peralta (ARI - LF,RF) | 240 |
275 |
263.2 |
12.1 |
264.0 |
-2.0 |
|
| 267 |
Reynaldo Lopez (CWS - SP,RP) | 187 |
267 |
240.3 |
37.7 |
|
|
|
| 268 |
Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY - CF,DH) | 227 |
286 |
265.4 |
20.4 |
211.0 |
-57.0 |
|
| 269 |
Brett Gardner (NYY - LF,CF,DH) | 226 |
269 |
257.5 |
18.2 |
272.0 |
+3.0 |
|
| 270 |
Trevor Bauer (CLE - SP,RP) | 253 |
280 |
266.6 |
9.3 |
250.0 |
-20.0 |
Many expected Bauer to put together a more impressive season by now, but the former top prospect hasn't had a consistent season yet in his career and sports a 4.42 ERA despite the impressive stuff. We know the talent is there to propel him further up the rankings, but it seems as though he will continue to have command issues that hold him back |
| 271 |
Tyson Ross (SP) FA | 229 |
271 |
258.8 |
17.4 |
283.0 |
+12.0 |
There is a possibility that Ross throws 180+ innings this season, but more than likely, he will miss a chunk of time to start the season and who knows if he will be normal Tyson Ross, or even close at that point. What's more is that he is going from the best park for pitchers to one of the five worst and now sees a DH in every lineup |
| 272 |
Lance Lynn (STL - SP) | 193 |
272 |
245.7 |
37.2 |
261.0 |
-11.0 |
Lynn is going undrafted in most standard leagues, but since he joined the Big Leagues, he was top 10 in wins, ERA and top 15 in strikeouts. He was, by all metrics, a fantasy ace before his injury, so draft him as such |
| 273 |
Joe Musgrove (HOU - SP,RP) | 243 |
273 |
260.8 |
12.9 |
345.0 |
+72.0 |
|
| 274 |
Kevin Pillar (TOR - CF) | 239 |
274 |
262.0 |
14.3 |
265.0 |
-9.0 |
|
| 275 |
Carter Capps (SD - RP) DL60 | 200 |
275 |
250.0 |
35.4 |
304.0 |
+29.0 |
Capps was undoubtably the best relief pitcher in baseball before he was shut down last season. Whether he can return back to form is a major question, but if he does, you can be sure he will steal the closer job for himself in no time |
| 276 |
Junior Guerra (MIL - SP) | 232 |
276 |
263.3 |
18.3 |
279.0 |
+3.0 |
Astonishingly, Junior Guerra went from 30 year old career minor leaguer to a rookie of the year candidate with a 2.81 ERA in over 120 innings pitched. Much of that was luck driven however, as his BABIP and HR/FB ratio were extremely low. Don't buy into the notion that he will repeat his rookie performance this year |
| 277 |
Chris Tillman (BAL - SP) | 236 |
277 |
263.8 |
16.8 |
355.0 |
+78.0 |
|
| 278 |
Mallex Smith (TB - LF,CF) | 244 |
278 |
264.8 |
14.3 |
384.0 |
+106.0 |
|
| 279 |
Matthew Strahm (SD - SP,RP) DL60 | 203 |
279 |
253.7 |
35.8 |
|
|
|
| 280 |
Rajai Davis (BOS - LF,CF,RF) | 250 |
281 |
269.8 |
12.8 |
220.0 |
-60.0 |
|
| 281 |
Lucas Duda (TB - 1B,DH) | 250 |
282 |
270.5 |
13.1 |
371.0 |
+90.0 |
|
| 282 |
Michael Wacha (STL - SP,RP) | 238 |
296 |
271.3 |
21.2 |
259.0 |
-23.0 |
|
| 283 |
Chris Carter (OAK - 1B) MiLB | 231 |
291 |
272.0 |
23.9 |
308.0 |
+25.0 |
|
| 284 |
Wilson Ramos (TB - C) | 225 |
284 |
264.3 |
27.8 |
280.0 |
-4.0 |
|
| 285 |
Matt Wieters (WSH - C) | 256 |
286 |
275.5 |
12.3 |
217.0 |
-68.0 |
|
| 286 |
Collin McHugh (HOU - SP) | 233 |
287 |
269.0 |
25.5 |
300.0 |
+14.0 |
|
| 287 |
Danny Valencia (SEA - 1B,3B,RF) | 234 |
288 |
270.0 |
25.5 |
294.0 |
+7.0 |
|
| 288 |
Josh Harrison (PIT - 2B,3B,LF) DL60 | 242 |
293 |
278.3 |
21.0 |
291.0 |
+3.0 |
|
| 289 |
Tyler Thornburg (BOS - RP) DL60 | 229 |
285 |
257.0 |
28.0 |
|
|
|
| 290 |
Ervin Santana (MIN - SP) | 236 |
290 |
272.0 |
25.5 |
269.0 |
-21.0 |
|
| 291 |
Alex Cobb (TB - SP) | 245 |
294 |
280.3 |
20.4 |
268.0 |
-23.0 |
|
| 292 |
Grant Dayton (LAD - RP) DL60 | 248 |
296 |
274.7 |
20.0 |
|
|
|
| 293 |
Josh Reddick (HOU - LF,CF,RF) | 241 |
292 |
275.0 |
24.0 |
332.0 |
+39.0 |
|
| 294 |
Mike Leake (SEA - SP) | 242 |
295 |
276.7 |
24.5 |
391.0 |
+97.0 |
|
| 295 |
Stephen Vogt (MIL - C,DH) | 243 |
294 |
277.0 |
24.0 |
224.0 |
-71.0 |
|
| 296 |
Tyler Skaggs (LAA - SP) | 249 |
297 |
279.7 |
21.7 |
320.0 |
+24.0 |
|
| 297 |
Jeremy Hellickson (BAL - SP) | 248 |
297 |
280.0 |
22.6 |
296.0 |
-1.0 |
|
| 298 |
Brandon Phillips (LAA - 2B,3B) | 251 |
298 |
282.3 |
22.2 |
293.0 |
-5.0 |
|
| 299 |
Shelby Miller (ARI - SP) DL60 | 251 |
299 |
275.0 |
24.0 |
|
|
|
| 300 |
Clint Frazier (NYY - LF,CF,RF) | 252 |
300 |
284.0 |
22.6 |
|
|
|
| 301 |
Adam Ottavino (COL - RP) | 284 |
285 |
284.3 |
0.5 |
221.0 |
-80.0 |
It is anticipated that Ottavino will win the closer job over Greg Holland after his extraordinary 27 innings last season, but trusting a reliever in Coors Field has proven to be a fools bet so proceed with caution |
| 302 |
Jedd Gyorko (STL - 1B,2B,3B,SS) | 261 |
293 |
277.0 |
16.0 |
227.0 |
-75.0 |
|
| 303 |
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS - SP) | 256 |
299 |
277.5 |
21.5 |
289.0 |
-14.0 |
|
| 304 |
Kyle Barraclough (MIA - RP) | 263 |
299 |
281.0 |
18.0 |
343.0 |
+39.0 |
|
| 305 |
Yadier Molina (STL - C) | 266 |
298 |
282.0 |
16.0 |
181.0 |
-124.0 |
|
| 306 |
Nate Jones (CWS - RP) DL10 | 273 |
296 |
284.5 |
11.5 |
|
|
|
| 307 |
Zach Davies (MIL - SP) | 275 |
298 |
286.5 |
11.5 |
286.0 |
-21.0 |
|
