Ahh, the Juan Soto conundrum. Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball. At 23 years old, he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. His raw power is astounding. But he plays for the suddenly terrible and powerless Washington Nationals. A few years removed from the World Series, the team is now a collection of "That guy is still playing?" and "Never heard of him" types. Soto's HR numbers will be huge, but his R and RBI numbers will take a big hit.

Mr. Consistency. Draft Harper somewhere between 6 and 10 in the first round, leave him in the lineup and count your blessings. In one of the quietest MVP campaigns in recent memory, Harper did Harper-like things in 2021, with 35 homers, 101 runs, 84 RBI and 13 stolen bases. With the Phillies adding Nick Castellanos to provide Harper with some lineup protection, a 100 RBI season with 110 runs is probably Harper's floor.

If Betts is healthy, he's an automatic NL MVP candidate. He played through back and hip injuries last year that limited his effectiveness. Reports are that Betts is healthy and ready to resume his spot amongst the game's elite. If he has 2B eligibility in your league, he's even more valuable. If Betts slides to 8, 9, 10 in the first round, snatch him up. If he adds 20 steals to his usually impressive R/HR/RBI tallies, he's going to be in the running for the overall No. 1 player at season's end.

In any other year, Acuna, Jr. is an easy top-five pick. The five-category star is a set-it-and-forget-it roster heavyweight. But coming off a gruesome mid-summer ACL tear, he's likely to miss most of April and possibly some of May, and Acuna is unlikely to wreak havoc on the basepaths for the first couple months. He's going to rake once he's healthy, but you might want to pass on Acuna unless you get a significant discount on him.

Speed kills. Or at least it does outside of the Big Apple. The Mets haven't had a player swipe 30 or more bases in the last seven seasons. Will they let their big free agent acquisition loose on the basepaths? Even if they do, at 34, will Marte still be an elite bag thief? If he's not running, Marte is a fantasy liability relative to his ADP. He's unlikely to pass the 20-dinger threshold, he's only had one season with 90 or more runs in his career, he's unlikely to equal last year's .372 BABIP, and he's part of the Mets' continually anemic offense. Don't overpay. But if he falls, snatch him up.

"It's a deep drive to left field by Castellanos" has become baseball's best meme, which overshadows the fact that Castellanos has been one of baseball's most underrated power bats over the last half decade. The 29-year-old picked the perfect year to enter free agency, coming off a 2021 campaign with a .576 SLG% and a .938 OPS. The move to Philadelphia should be a good one, as it gives Castellanos a chance to bat cleanup directly behind Bryce Harper.

You could do a lot worse than O'Neil as your second outfielder. You're in great shape if somehow your third outfielder. He's a second-tier five-category guy, although O'Neill's .366 BABIP in 2021 suggests that he's probably not going to bat .286 again. The peripherals suggest that O'Neill's power is legit, however. He's not a guy you reach for, but if he starts to fall, grab him. O'Neill is only 26, so it's possible he'll turn in a season that ends up much better than his ADP.

He hasn't turned into the superstar we thought he was going to become, but he's still got power and will still knock in runs, and now he'll be doing his mashing at Coors Field. Bryant might not have been worth a top-100 selection if he landed in a bad spot, but going to the Rockies gives him a significant value boost.

Guys with recurring muscle injuries scare me. They're one wrong step away from missing a month. Marte terrifies me. Ever since his 2019 breakout that had all of us wondering if we'd be better off with Marte or Ozzie Albies (lol, what were we thinking?), Marte has had trouble staying healthy. Arizona is likely to give him more rest this season with the goal of keeping him on the field. He'll still help you in average, and he has a little pop in his bat, but he's one of the riskier investments in fantasy baseball.

What is zero? The odds that Reynolds stays on the Pittsburgh roster all season. Thanks for playing FantasyPros Jeopardy. I like Reynolds. You should like Reynolds. He has a chance to be a sneaky difference maker, a guy who'll get dealt in July and make a huge difference on a playoff team. In the first half of the season, he'll give you solid numbers in a lineup void of talent. Once he ends up in the No 3 or No. 5 spot in a lineup surrounded by stars, he'll put up top-50 numbers.

The way you regard Yelich depends on what type of fantasy manager you are. Do you like rolling the dice on potential superstars who can't stay upright? Or would you rather take a lesser player and know you'll get 150 games out of him? If you're in the latter category, Yelich is probably on your do-not-draft list. His upside is huge, but the now-30-year-old outfielder dealt with serious back issues last season, and back injuries have a tendency to reoccur.

Reyes crushes the ball and has the potential to become one of MLB's elite power hitters. The problem is that he hits the ball on the ground way too often. He had a 46% groundball rate in 2021 and a 36% flyball rate. That's a low flyball rate for a power hitter, and yet it's the highest of Reyes's four-year career. His 64% contact rate last year suggests there's worrisome BA downside here. Reyes doesn't steal bases. His run totals have been unimpressive and don't figure to improve with the bottom of the Cleveland batting order looking so anemic. And Reyes is only DH-eligible in most leagues. Reyes could lead the AL in homers if he makes launch-angle adjustments, but let someone else chase that dream.

Schwarber was really, really good in 2020. He ranked in the top 10% of the league in barrel rate, average and maximum exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk percentage, and wOBA. He also batted a career-best .266, probably because he swung at far fewer pitches outside the strike zone than he ever had before. He'll now bat near or at the top of a strong Phillies lineup in a park that should only accentuate Schwarber's raw power. If Schwarber can hold the gains he saw last year - being more selective, hitting more line drives, etc. - then he should be in for perhaps his best season to date.

Winker's value drops with the move to Seattle, which has one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB. He should still provide a solid batting average, but aspirations of 30 HR and 90 RBI now seem far-fetched. Winker is yet another player who deals with chronic injuries. He's a guy I usually pass on and regret it at least 21 nights of the season, but pat myself on the back the rest of the year.

A fractured wrist has changed the draft calculus on Tatis Jr., who might be out for as long as three months. It's always taken an iron stomach to draft him and deal with the injury risk. When healthy, he's a multi-category box score stuffer. His counting numbers are so orbital, he's basically a seven-category player ... when he's on the field. Now, you simply can't consider taking him within the first seven rounds.

There's a lot to like here. The biggest draws are speed and multi-position (OF/2B) eligibility. Edman stole 30 bases last year, tying for fourth in MLB. Statcast says he's in the 92nd percentile for sprint speed. There's a little bit of power here, too. Edman hit only 11 HRs last year but clubbed 41 doubles. Edman has a .272 batting average over three seasons, and there could be room for growth there. His contact rate improved to 85% last year, and he sprays hits to both sides of the diamond. Edman doesn't take many walks, but that's a minor nit to pick.

Grisham was . . . fine last year. His 15 homers and 13 steals contributed, particularly given that he missed time with injury. But there just wasn't much to get excited about. There's probably more to be had in the stolen base department, as Grisham ranks in the 91st percentile in sprint speed. And he should bat atop the lineup this year with Fernando Tatis set to miss time. But your best-case scenario is a 20-15 line with a batting average that hurts. That's a startable player in fantasy, but not one you should reach for in drafts.

Garcia had an outstanding year with Milwaukee, hitting 29 home runs and driving in 86 in just 135 games. As usual, he showed elite maximum exit velocity, continuing his run of ranking in the top seven percent of MLB in that category since it began being tracked. He signed a four-year deal with Miami and, given the park dimensions and lack of lineup protection, that's obviously not the best place for him to end up. But the bottom line is that a 25-10 season is very much in reach, and he's a fine later-round selection who can fill in as a fourth outfielder.

Taylor had an excellent season, hitting 20 homers and stealing 13 bases while playing all over the diamond as usual. The Dodgers rewarded him with a four-year, $60 million deal, which pretty much guarantees that he'll find his way into the lineup nearly every day. He won't wow you in any category but given his position flexibility and placement in the best lineup in baseball, Taylor is an ideal player for any fantasy team who should offer similar numbers to last year.

Ozuna missed the majority of the season after he was arrested on charges of aggravated assault by strangulation and battery last year. He's 31 years old now and his hard hit rate and average exit velocity declined sharply last year, along with his home run percentage and batting average. It's not clear if his numbers last year were just a blip or the start of a steep decline, but you shouldn't be relying on him as a starter for now.

Suzuki signed with the Cubs this offseason, and will come over from the Hiroshima Toyo Carp after dominating last year in Japan. He hit 38 home runs and had a 1.073 OPS, and he has a career .315 batting average and .985 OPS in the NPS. Projecting players coming over from Japan is fraught with difficulties, but the general consensus is that Suzuki has 30-homer power with the ability to hit for average and steal double-digit bases. Whether that manifests itself in his first year remains to be seen, but there are few players with similar upside going at his ADP. Draft him as a fourth outfielder, but hope he plays like a second or third option.

Carlson rebounded from a disastrous 2020 season to put up a respectable .266/.343/.437 line with 18 home runs last year. But the dreams of fantasy superstardom after his 2019 minor-league season (26 homers, 20 steals) have been put on hold, as he seems to have little interest in stealing bases in the majors (three total in two seasons), and his hard-hit rate was in the bottom nine percent of the league last year. His numbers and underlying metrics suggest that he's a slightly above-average MLB player, though it's worth remembering that he's just 23 years old and there's certainly potential for more. Drafting Carlson as a fourth outfielder with upside for more is the right approach, as he should bring a fairly solid floor with potential for a high ceiling if everything comes together.

Soler's 48-homer season isn't ever going to repeat itself, but he doesn't need it to in order to provide fantasy value. He popped 27 homers last year and although his batting average has been in the .220s each of the last two years, his expected batting average has been closer to the high .240s. Now with the Marlins, he'll need every bit of hard contact he can get, but he should benefit from the NL adopting the DH. Soler isn't and won't be a star, but he's a useful fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Varsho has bounced around from catcher to the outfield so far in his major league career, but he is penned in as the everyday center fielder in 2022. His bat is solid, not necessarily elite, and if he was only outfield eligible, he'd probably be a fifth outfielder or high-end bench piece. But his projected 15-10 line plays incredibly well at catcher, where he retains eligibility, and he'll likely bat in the middle of the lineup which should help buoy his counting stats, even in Arizona's lineup. He's a rock solid starting catcher for fantasy purposes, but don't play to play him in the outfield.

Rosario re-signed with the Braves after coming over mid-season last year from Clevelan. He's still a productive MLB player but it's unclear if he can recapture the form that made him one of the more underrated assets in fantasy. He's no longer out-performing his expected batting average and he's never hit the ball particularly hard, so the 32 home runs we saw back in 2019 are probably never coming back. But he'll likely approach a 20-10 season in Atlanta and stick in the lineup every day with the addition of the DH in the National League. You could do worse as your last outfielder in a mixed league.

It's not often that an offensive player can be traded out of Toronto and get an upgrade in his value, but that's exactly what Grichuk got with his move to Colorado. We know what Grichuk is by now - he's gonna make elite contact with the ball a ton, but he's not at all selective, so he holds himself back by swinging at bad pitches. There's a ton of power with the veteran, and Coors Field should help boost his batting average from his career .245 mark. He's slated to bat sixth right now, meaning there should be RBI opportunity aplenty, so he makes a fine fifth outfielder for your fantasy team, with the upside to be more.

There was a lot of good with Happ's 2021 season. He reached a career-high in home runs, runs scored, and stolen bases, and he kept his walk rate in the double digits. But he also batted a career worst .226 and ranked in the bottom nine percent of the league with a 29.2% strikeout rate. Happ should be a starter for the Cubs, of course, but with the addition of Seiya Suzuki and with Clint Frazier on board, Chicago may be a little less patient with his slumps. Make sure you're taken care of in batting average and have depth if you draft Happ, because with his production come some pretty glaring risks.

Blackmon is in obvious decline as he enters his age-35 season. At one point, he was a lock for at least 29 home runs, well over 100 runs, and double-digit steals with a .300 batting average. Now, you're hoping for .280-15-80, with any steals he throws in as gravy. There's no huge analysis that needs to be done here - Father Time is undefeated, and the old Blackmon isn't coming back. The depth of the Rockies lineup continues to take a hit, even with the addition of Kris Bryant, and at this point, you're drafting Blackmon hoping for one more mediocre season out of him. There are better places to invest your draft capital.

Sanchez hits the ball hard and does so consistently, so he has a ton of power upside. He won't maintain the almost 40-homer pace he was on last year, and he needs to improve on his 31.1% strikeout rate if he's going to take a jump in value. But think Adolis Garcia without the speed - someone who will at times look unstoppable and go on major runs, but other times will frustrate you with his lack of consistency. He has the upside for 30-homer, 90-RBI season, so as a late-round pick, he's a great option.

Canha had an interesting 2021 season, as he saw his average continue to trend down but randomly stole 12 bases with Oakland. Now with the Mets, he'll likely bat toward the bottom of the order, so chances are he won't come close to the 93 runs he scored last year. If you're in an OBP league, Canha's value increases greatly, as his walk rate hasn't been lower than 12.3% in any of the last three seasons. But in a standard 5x5 league, he's mostly just a filler option.

 

Lewis is dealing with knee issues and likely won't be ready for Opening Day. When healthy, he's a talented but low-floor option, as he doesn't have a ton of speed or power and his strikeout rate (29.5% career) keeps his batting average in check. He's just 26 years old so, of course, there's upside for more. But the knee issues are enough of a reason to look elsewhere when you're considering a late-round outfielder.

Rojas chipped in last year, but he didn't quite meet expectations placed on him after a strong spring. He came a steal short of reaching double digits in both home runs and steals, but his expected stats leave little to be desired. He's got position flexibility and won't hurt you while he's in there, but he's not someone you can draft as a starter and feel confident about. Expect a similar line to last year.

 

 

Yastrzemski couldn't replicate his 2020 pace, though he did hit 25 home runs and total 155 combined runs and RBI. His batting average plummeted to just .224 (and his .222 xBA, one of the worst in the league, showed that number was earned), as pitchers continued their trends of throwing him fewer and fewer fastballs and more off-speed offerings.He performed terribly against non-fastballs last year, which led to a ridiculously low .254 BABIP, which was way out of character for him. Yastrzemski needs to adjust, but the good news is that the power he's shown appears to be real, and his counting stats should stay afloat batting in a strong San Francisco lineup. But until or unless he can improve against off-speed pitches, he'll likely struggle with batting average.

 

 

 

McNeil's 2019 power outburst looks like a total anomaly, as he hit just seven home runs last year. His usual reliable batting average bottomed out to just .251 as he played through injury, but most of his underlying metrics looked strong. He'll rarely strike out, but there's just not that much that he can offer given his lack of power and speed. Worse still, he'll likely now bat in the bottom third of the Mets' batting order with the team's additions. There's little reason to consider McNeil in any capacity this year unless he somehow finds his power stroke.