Why are you even reading this? If you're a fantasy manager who likes to draft starting pitchers in the first round and Burnes is there, you grab him. If he falls to the second round, you grab him. If he falls to the third, you're probably playing fantasy football, and he's probably a better QB than Carson Wentz, so grab him. Burnes won the Cy Young last year and there's nothing in any of his stat projections that show any reason for concern. He's got overall SP1 capabilities. Don't overthink it.

Eventually, his arm is just going to fall off, right? He's going to throw his 9 millionth inning, strike a guy out, remove his limb like something out of "Total Recall," put it on the mound and walk away into the sunset. Seems plausible, because there's no way that arm isn't bionic. The 37-year-old signed a three-year deal to return to the NL East and lead the Mets' rotation. He should be a lock for 200 IP and 250+ Ks. And his new home, Citi Field, is one of the most pitching-friendly parks in baseball. Scherzer probably isn't going to keep an ERA below 2.50, but somewhere around 2.70-2.80 will still make managers smile.

The West Coast bias rears its ugly head again. If the Dodgers' ace pitched in Boston, New York or Chicago, headlines would call him Cy Buehler. If you play in a QS league, Walker is as sure a thing as a traffic jam on the 405. He went six or more innings in all but one of his first 27 starts last year. He'll give you a strikeout an inning, a sub-1.00 WHIP and have you feeling calm, cool and collected as a manager every fifth night. Pitching for a great Dodgers team, Buehler could top 20 wins.

It's going to be awfully hard to score on the Brewers this summer. Woodruff is a Cy Young candidate. His rotation mate Corbin Burnes won the award last year and could again this year. Don't be scared off by Woodruff's miniscule win totals from last season. He only won nine games due to the worst run support in the National League. Had he received the top-15 run support that Burnes had, Woodruff could have easily eclipsed 15 victories. He's projected for a fourth straight season of outstanding K, ERA and WHIP stats. If you can somehow pair Burnes with Woodruff early, you may not need to grab another starting pitcher before the 10th round.

You won't be able to sneak Urias past the rest of your league again after his 20-win campaign in 2021. He's primed to join the ranks of the true aces. The Dodgers will win 100 games, with a top-10 defense. Urias is ready to pitch 200 innings and have a top-10 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers always seem to score in bunches when he's on the hill, so Urias might get 20 wins again. After bringing Urias along slowly, the Dodgers will finally unleash the young star. If he throws 210 innings, Urias will far outperform his fourth-round draft projection.

It's not often a player in a major media market puts up a career season, finishes second in the Cy Young voting and ... nobody seems to notice. Well, friends, Mr. Wheeler would like some more of your attention in 2022, albeit with some caution. His 2.78 ERA last season was a career low. It's likely some regression is coming and his ERA will be in the low 3s. He usually strikes out about a batter an inning, but Wheeler punched out 247 in 213 IP last year. Will he be able to equal that pace? The Phillies are counting on him to do just that at the top of their rotation, but you'd be wise to treat him more like a solid All-Star than a Cy Young favorite. If he's your SP2, life is good. If he's your ace, make sure to load up on solid starting pitching in the mid rounds to bolster your staff behind him.

Don't overpay for what you hope Nola will be - the 2018 version of the pitcher who looked like he was on a path to superstardom. Nola's name still resonates, but his stats can be easily replicated four or five rounds after his fourth-round ADP. His 2022 ZiPS projection has him finishing 12-7 with a 3.46 ERA. Other systems are projecting his ERA to be closer to 3.75, which basically makes him Frankie Montas. You'd feel foolish drafting Montas 39th, right? Well, if that was your draft slot plan for Nola, think again.

For three straight years, this talented youngster has cut down on his walk rate and increased his strikeout rate. Those are the kinds of year-over-year rate improvements fantasy managers want to see from their SP2 or SP3. There's no reason to believe Alcantra can't be even better this year, building on his 3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 201 Ks in 205 IP from last season. At 26, he's coming into his prime. If Alcantrara continues to improve, he could easily finish as a top-10 starter.

He's not going to surprise anyone anymore. The young Brewers starter shocked everyone last season, posting 195 Ks in just 144.1 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA and a shocking sub-1.00 WHIP. Amazingly, despite those gaudy stats, he'll be the third Brewers starter drafted. Unreal. If he can get any run support, 15 wins isn't out of the question. Expect Peralta's ERA and WHIP to rise some, but the strikeouts are for real. If he's your SP3, you have a VERY good pitching staff. Now go find some bats.

There's a scene in the movie "Draft Day" where the Cleveland Browns GM played by Kevin Costner writes down a name on a sticky note before the draft. It's the name of the one guy he can't leave the draft without. I'll be writing Max Fried's name on my sticky note. Pencil him in for 17 wins on a great Braves team, a top-40 overall ranking, about one strikeout per inning, a beautiful WHIP and an ERA right around the 3.00 mark. Not bad for a guy with an ADP around 70.

Webb is going too high in drafts for my liking. He altered his pitching style after a horrid start last year, but will that be enough to continue to stymie hitters once they've had time to adjust to him? His hot finish to the 2021 season on a scorching Giants team propelled him higher on draft boards than his stats warrant. Fantasy managers can find a bunch of starting pitchers who'll finish the season within a couple ticks of Webb in ERA, WHIP and Ks and will be available 20-30 spots after Webb's seventh-round ADP.

If you're the type of manager who loads up on bats early, knowing that there are always pitchers who'll turn in solid numbers available later on - guys who'll give you 25-30 starts and won't have more than a few clunkers - Musgrove is your guy. In San Diego's pitcher's park with a good defense behind him, Musgrove should produce solid strikeout totals, with a mid-3.00s ERA and a low 1.10s WHIP. Draft him. Play him. Sure, you'll forget he's on your team half the time, but enjoy the pretty stats.

Morton is 38 years old. He's coming back from a broken fibula. And yet, he's a perfect SP3 target. Morton is the Honda Civic in your driveway that just refuses to die. It delivers reliable performance, week in and week out. Excluding the off-kilter 2020 pandemic short season, Morton has given managers a sub-3.40 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP with good strikeout totals and double-digit wins in four straight seasons. The Braves have faith he's got a fifth straight season in him.

After years of battling injuries and ineffectiveness, Rodon blossomed last year with a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Everything worked for the lefty, as his fastball (.199 BAA) and slider (.107 BAA) were borderline unhittable, and he ranked in the top four percent of the league in strikeout rate. He dealt with shoulder soreness and fatigue during the second half of the season, but that didn't stop the Giants from giving him a huge two-year deal. Oracle Park isn't quite the pitcher haven it once was, but it's a huge upgrade for Rodon after pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field last year. The injury risk will always be present for Rodon, but he's worth an investment if you make sure to bank on 150 innings or fewer.

Missed out on some of the big strikeout pitchers early? Nobody on your roster is projected to pass the 250 K mark? Heading into the eighth round and worried? Darvish is your answer. He's going to get swings and misses. He still has an outstanding, varied pitch repertoire. Sure, his ERA won't win you any leagues, but it won't hurt you much, and he'll pair it with a low WHIP. Darvish's issue has always been his propensity to give up the long ball. Playing half his games in San Diego's generous dimensions should limit the damage.

The 24-year-old is flying up dynasty draft boards, as his numbers project continued growth from a starter who paid off big as a 2021 sleeper selection. But if you're not in a dynasty league, don't overpay. Rogers is unlikely to match his 2.65 ERA from last season, and it's safe to expect some WHIP regression. His impressive strikeout rate is for real and there's a huge runway in front of him. If you think he's bound for a sustained breakout and have faith he can replicate or beat last season, jump on him about 75 to 80 picks in. If he's still there as you close in on pick 100, snatch him up.

Kershaw isn't the same pitcher he was at his peak, but he's still really, really good. His curveball doesn't have quite the same bite and his fastball has fallen off a bit, but his slider is one of the best in baseball. Kershaw really leaned into that pitch last year (he used it 47.6% of the time), so it's no surprise that he dealt with forearm issues at the end of the season. And injuries are now unfortunately a common thing for the veteran, as he's dealt with back, shoulder, and now elbow injuries over the past several years. He's back with the Dodgers on a one-year deal and is reportedly healthy. There's still a ton of room for profit with him, but you shouldn't count on much more than 120 innings.

Bassitt's success feels uncomfortable - he doesn't have a ton of velocity or much of a secondary pitch beyond his sinker. But year in and year out, he offers an ERA and WHIP that help fantasy managers. His 25% strikeout rate last year was a career-best, and his deep arsenal helps to keep hitters off balance. He'll lose out on some park value with the move from Oakland to New York, but chances are he will improve on his meager win totals from the last few years. There's no ceiling ith Bassitt, but there's an extremely high floor, so sticking him in the back-end of your rotation is a winning move.

Snell is an every-other-year pitcher. Over his six year career, his ERA has been good in even years (averaging 2.89) and pedestrian in odd years (4.17). Is that scientific? No, of course not, but you're playing a game based on other people playing a game. Let's have some leeway here. Well, friends, it's an even year. So go ahead and make Snell your SP3.

Lopez was limited to 102.2 innings last year as he (again) dealt with a shoulder injury. But when he did pitch, he was excellent. A 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate all added plus value to fantasy rosters. Lopez primarily relies on a fastball/changeup combination, and he'll probably need to take the next step with either his curveball or cutter to take the next step. But his current production is plenty good enough, and he's an ideal third starter for your fantasy team.

Manaea was traded to the Padres on the eve of the season, and it's a bit of a mixed bag for his value. His win potential certainly improves given the quality of the offense behind him now, but he'll see a downgrade in home park. Putting aside, the trade, Manaea was really inconsistent last year, and had just one month where his ERA was within two runs of the previous month. There were some overall gains, including a fastball that randomly found almost two miles of velocity. But in the end, Manaea just sort of is what he is. He doesn't have the secondary stuff to be a big strikeout pitcher, and his best-case scenario, absent a massively lucky season, is a mid-3.00 ERA with a WHIP that doesn't hurt you. Draft him for the back end of your rotation but do not expect a great leap.

The Mets' ace is a legit superstar ... when he plays. But now deGrom, who was already coming off injuries to his shoulder and UCL, is being shut down until at least the end of April with a scapular injury. If he returns to something close to full health at some point, he'll deliver a sub 2.50 ERA with piles of strikeouts and a miniscule WHIP. But it's probably wishful thinking to project deGrom for more than 100 innings in 2022.

Anderson wasn't as dominant last year as he was in his six-start stretch in 2020, but you shouldn't have expected him to be. What he gave fantasy managers was still plenty useful, with a mid-3.00 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He's going to need to continue to develop his curveball more to be able to take the next step in terms of fantasy pitchers, and he might have trouble taking a step forward regardless given how much the NL East offenses have improved. But there's little risk that he'll regress significantly at this stage, so your worst case scenario should be a solid mid-tier starter.

Gallen took a major step back last year, but it's tough not to blame the injuries. He missed time with forearm, elbow, and hamstring injuries and the quality of nearly every one of his pitches declined. He looked like a prime bounce-back candidate, but he's already behind schedule because of bursitis in his shoulder. If you believe that Gallen's decline last year was due to his injuries and that he won't miss much time this year, then he should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 starter. When he's right, his fastball, changeup, and curveball are all outstanding, and he can pile on the strikeouts with ease. But you'd be foolish not to acknowledge the injury risks, and if you do draft Gallen, make sure you have a deep staff behind him.

Clevinger is on track to be ready for Opening Day after missing all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That was Clevinger's second such surgery so there's certainly reason for long-term concern, but for just this year, he's someone to buy. He was a top flight fantasy starter for the last several years before his injury, and has a wipeout slider to go along with his fastball. His control has never been elite and there will probably be a fairly hard innings cap on him coming off of surgery, but on an inning-by-inning basis, he should provide elite production if healthy.

Stroman had some of the best surface numbers of his career with a 3.02 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, as a stronger Mets infield defense helped to normalize his BABIP against just a bit. But even though he had the highest strikeout rate of his career, the new splitter he introduced didn't generate enough whiffs to make a difference. He remained an overall negative in the category (7.94/9), and he'll now pitch for a mediocre Cubs team in 2022. Stroman won't hurt you, and drafting a pitcher with little downside can be a plus if you have a deep rotation. But at this point in his career, there's equally little upside, so whether you take the shot on him depends entirely on how the rest of your staff looks.

Here's a guy you just can't go wrong with. He has immaculate control, ace-level stuff, a really high floor and an exceptional Cy Young-level ceiling. Flaherty only pitched 78 innings last season due to shoulder and oblique injuries, but he didn't suffer any structural damage in his shoulder - it was just a strain - so that shouldn't have any lingering impact this season. He's otherwise been pretty durable. One thing to consider is that after being limited last year, Flaherty may have a cap of about 140-150 innings.

DeSclafani is back with the Giants after an impressive 2021 season during which he pitched to a 3.17 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. It's not going out on a limb to say that DeSclafani is not going to repeat those numbers this year, however. He's really mostly just a two-pitch pitcher at this point, with an excellent slider and decent fastball, and he doesn't have the strikeout rate to sustain the ratio stats we saw last year. But San Francisco is a good place to pitch, the Giants should boast a strong team again, and DeSclafani's control is good enough so that he should have a decent floor. Just take a point off his 2021 ERA when you consider where to draft him.

Suarez was fantastic as both a reliever and a starter last year, compiling a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He was almost equally dominant as a starter and a reliever, though it's worth noting that he had a very soft run of opponents during his 12 starts. More troubling for projecting Suarez is that he had a comically low home run rate (just 0.34/9 innings). Yes, his sinker moves a ton and avoids hard contact, but that's simply not a sustsainable number. He's dealt with visa issues this spring, though looks to be on track for the season, so don't let that concern you much. Instead, just understand that he's due for some major regression, and is likely to pitch closer to a 4.00 ERA this year.

Knebel was labeled as the tentative closer by Joe Girardi early in the spring, and he's done nothing to lose the job since. He rebounded from a terrible 2020 season to put up a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with the Dodgers last year, and his fastball velocity sat at a robust 96.3 mile per hour. He's already throwing harder than that this spring, and combined with his outstanding curveball, his fastball can perform at an elite level. Knebel has closing experience from his days with Milwaukee, so as long as he can avoid injury, there's every reason to expect him to hold the role all year long. He could easily end up as a top-5 closer if everything breaks right.

Montgomery was fine last year (3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), but he didn't take the step forward that many had envisioned. His curveball is an elite pitch, and his changeup isn't far behind, but his sinker (.412 wOBA against) just gets crushed. If he leans further into his changeup and curve, you could see a giant step forward, especially since his whiff rate is already solid and his walk rate is above average. But if not, it's probably going to be yet another mediocre season for him, particularly with the tough lineups he'll face routinely.

Wainwright found the fountain of youth last year, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP and totaling 17 wins, his most since 2014. He benefitted greatly from the weak NL Central and an outstanding defense, but the bottom line is that Wainwright was just . . . good. His curveball remained effective, his sinker worked well, and he topped 200 innings pitched. Expecting this again as he enters his age-41 season would be overly optimistic, but if you have a strong staff and just need a filler for the back end of your rotation, then Wainwright is your guy.

Wood rebounded from two down years n a row, climbing back to a 3.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His velocity saw a notable jump from his previous full seasons, as his sinker sat nearly two miles per hour more than he had back in 2019. Despite his strong strikeout rate, the fact that we're talking about Wood as having this excellent bounceback season with over a 3.80 ERA tells you all you need to know. Even if you buy that he can stay mostly healthy again, which is very much in question, his ceiling simply isn't high enough for you to draft him as anything but a late-round pick.

Syndergaard has pitched two innings since 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and then having setbacks last season, and he'll get a fresh start with the Angels. Fantasy managers know what he brings to the table when he's at his best. A high-90s fastball, and excellent curveball, changeup, and slider, and the ability to dominate any lineup he faces when he's on. There are obvious injury concerns, but considering his low ADP, he has more upside than any pitcher going around him. Take comfort in the fact that he took a one-year deal in an effort to rebuild his value, and accept the discount on someone who could easily be an SP2 or SP3 if he stays healthy.

It would be great if Marquez could get out of Colorado, because he's just not going to reach his potential with the Rockies. His strikeout rate has been below one per inning for the last two seasons, his walk rate is trending in the wrong direction, and his win totals will almost certainly not rise beyond mediocrity. The best thing about Marquez is that he will give you innings, as he's basically pitched full seasons for five years straight. If you have a strong rotation otherwise and just need that extra arm, then you can draft Marquez late for the back end of your staff.

Cobb joins the Giants after a successful one-year stint with the Angels where he put up his best numbers in years. He avoided hard contact well, upped his strikeout rate to a career high, and cut his home run rate to a miniscule level. It's unclear if his 2021 season was just a blip or if his gains are sustainable, but a move to San Francisco can't be a bad thing. If he just repeats last year and avoids injury, he'll be a steal at his ADP.

Ynoa pitched only 101 1/13 innings last season between the majors and the minors, and ended the season with a sore shoulder. There was some doubt about whether he would begin the year in the rotation but he has pitched well and been healthy this spring, so those concerns can likely be put to bed. Ynoa has an elite slider and an outstanding fastball that both miss bats, and both pitches are so good that fantasy managers should feel confident that he can succeed as a starter despite really having just those two pitches. With that said, the Braves will likely be careful with his innings this season, so there's no reason to draft him too early since he probably has a 140-inning cap.

Matz had a surprisingly effective year despite moving to the AL East and Toronto, pitching 150 2/3 innings with a 3.82 ERA. We know what he is by now in his career - a strikeout rate that won't hurt you, a decent walk rate that isn't enough to keep his WHIP in check, and a ceiling of about 160 innings. Moving to St. Louis is a great thing for him, however, as he'll benefit from the Cardinals' excellent infield defense (Matz has a 47.1% ground ball rate). But he's essentially a replacement level fantasy starter at this point, and entering his age-31 season, we're probably not going to see much growth.

Hendricks won the "most underrated starter" award for five years in a row or so because fantasy managers liked to ignore his excellent numbers due to his low velocity and strikeout rate. But the bill came due last eason, and he had, by far, the worst season of his career. His ERA pushed 5.00, his WHIP was two tenths of a point higher than his career mark, and his already low strikeout rate dipped further. There's hope for a rebound, of course. Hendricks is just 32, his home run rate seemed unsustainably high, and through it all, he still got to 14 wins. But this already feels like fantasy manager missed the opportunity to jump off the Hendricks ship a year too early rather than a year too late. Hendricks needs to have pristine ratios to justify the strikeout rate, and pitching in front of a mediocre defense, it seems highly unlikely he'll get there. There are better places to spend your late-round investment.

Carrasco was limited to just 53 2/3 innings last season as he was delayed due to a hamstring injury. He then dealt with elbow troubles, which ultimately led him to have surgery in the offseason to remove bone spurs in his elbow. Both his splitter and his slider have looked good thus far in the spring, and he claims to be fully healthy, so he's certainly worth an investment given his late ADP. Despite his advancing age, Carrasco still has the potential to be a No. 3 fantasy starter given his career strikeout rate and past success, so he's the exact type of late-round starter fantasy managers should be targeting.

 

 

 

 

 

Strasburg is coming back from surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, and we've seen that surgery derail promising careers before. He's thrown just 26.2 innings over the last two seasons, and although he's reportedly healthy and feeling good, he probably won't make his debut until May at this point. Despite his elite career numbers, fantasy managers cannot go into 2022 expecting to get anything from Strasburg as a starter. Drafting him for your bench and hoping you get 10 good starts out of him at some point is the safe way to go, but at this point, you should be rooting for Strasburg more from the standpoint of a baseball fan, not a fantasy manager.