2023 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

The Brewers took the training wheels off for Corbin Burnes in 2022, allowing him to throw 202 innings after only 167 the year before. The 28-year-old didn't disappoint, striking out 243 batters while feasting on the free-swinging NL Central batters. Some fatigue appeared to set in following the All-Star Break, but overall, his numbers remained elite, with an xFIP of 2.85, a K/9 of 10.83, and a WHIP of 0.97. With no clear-cut SP1 in fantasy this season, Burnes is a solid choice, as he will buoy your pitching categories while pitching in front of a Top 10 defensive team.

Aaron Nola had a wildly unlucky 2021 that most fantasy managers were aware of on draft day in 2022. The managers who took him were rewarded with more innings, strikeouts, and vastly improved ratios. Nola remains elite in BB% (3.6) and HardHit% (31.6) while allowing weak contact - which is good since his defense consisted of mostly should-be DHs. The 29-year-old picked up an extra 25 2/3 innings of postseason work, the first of his career, bringing his total innings to a career-high 230. Nola is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies, so he will have plenty of motivation to demonstrate his ability to serve as the ace of any staff.

Spencer Strider arrived in MLB in 2022 and promptly helped many a fantasy manager make the playoffs. He pitched 131 2/3 innings, striking out an obscene 202 batters with a devastating slider that came after his 98 mph fastball. He struggled with free passes, issuing 3.1 walks per nine, but he more than made up for that with a 16.4% swinging strike rate and K% of 38.3. After he signed a six-year, $75 million contract, the Braves should allow him to throw more innings, probably in the 150-160 range, and he should still have RP eligibility, making him a points-league stud as well. Strider has the makings of a bona fide ace and is only 24 years old. Draft him with confidence.

In 2022, Sandy Alcantara had Jacob deGrom on speed dial to discuss coping strategies for receiving little to no run support during a dominant pitching season. He had nine NDs, giving up an average of 1.5 earned runs while pitching more than six innings in all but one. Beyond that, Alcantara threw 228 innings with a 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts, winning the NL Cy Young with all 30 first-place votes. The 27-year-old demonstrated an easy delivery, and the Marlins demonstrated comfort in letting him go deep into ballgames. The concerns with Alcantara are related to over-drafting him coming off his career year and an xFIP that was an entire run above his ERA. He does not overpower hitters, but they struggle to make good contact against his three-pitch mix. He deserves a high draft pick - just recognize some slight regression may be on the horizon.

Brandon Woodruff had a strange 2022 season. He only pitched 153 innings; he missed time due to a diagnosis of Raynaud's Syndrome, which affected the index, middle, and ring fingers on his pitching hand. He still struck out 190 batters and maintained a 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but the missed time and increased average exit velocity allowed left something to be desired for fantasy managers. The 13 wins were nice, and his underlying metrics remain stellar, but he comes with a little more risk than previously.

Zack Wheeler returned from his 2021 Cy Young runner-up campaign and defended his position as a top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. In 153 innings, the 31-year-old struck out 163 batters and ended the campaign with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The 153 innings were down from 213 1/3 in 2021, but this is actually encouraging in that the Phillies were cognizant of his usage. Wheeler will take the ball every fifth day and deliver a strikeout per inning, solid ratios, and should be a good source of wins for the defending National League Champions and your fantasy squad.

Julio Urias ended the 2022 season with a shiny 2.16 ERA, but this belies some concerning underlying numbers that pushed his xFIP to 3.81. The 26-year-old benefited from an excellent defense and an unsustainable .229 BABIP, while his HR/9 went up to 1.2. Those are the negatives. On the positive side, his spin rates are still above the 90th percentile, and he threw 175 innings, taking the ball every fifth day like clockwork. For 5x5 leagues, Urias finished third in the majors with 17 wins last year, and while it's not great to chase that category, he seems a safe bet to do well in it. Draft him expecting some regression, but he is still a very good pitcher on a behemoth of a team with a great defense.

In 2022, Max Fried demonstrated that pristine control and location can still be effective in today's Triple-Digit SP Society. In 185 innings pitched, he struck out 170 batters while walking only 32. He limits hard contact and uses a four-pitch combination to sit in the 91st percentile of chase rate. The 29-year-old will give fantasy managers six innings in most games, and he will anchor your SP ratios to sit in the 2.70/1.05 range. He might be the best SP2 on the board and available in the sixth round in most drafts.

Injury-averse fantasy managers missed out on Zac Gallen's first healthy season in 2022, which saw him start 31 games and throw 184 innings. He struck out 192 batters on his way to a 2.54 ERA and sparkling 0.91 WHIP. The 27-year-old throws his fastball almost half the time but finishes hitters off with his curveball and changeup equally. He limits hard contact, and his 4.09 K/BB ratio is in the upper echelon of the majors. Arizona is on the upswing, but the Diamondbacks are often forgotten about on draft day. A healthy Gallen is a steal at his ADP of 74.

Yu Darvish is an often-overlooked starter in fantasy drafts, be it his age or his past inflated ERA that drive people away. His 2022 numbers, however, rewarded whoever took him two rounds too late, finishing 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and 197 strikeouts in 194 2/3 innings. Nothing in his underlying metrics looks like a giant red flag. His value is great in the sixth or seventh round, and even though we don't chase wins, he plays for a team who should put him in line for many of them. He turns 37 in August, but he could be a sneaky great pick on draft day.

Joe Musgrove has been a picture of pitching consistency over the past two seasons, with his stats almost eerily similar. His strikeouts were down, but so were his walks and ERA. He had identical WHIPs of 1.08 and has started more than 30 games in four of the past five seasons (excluding 2020). Drafting the 30-year-old is a smart idea if you pick an SP1 with more upside (and more risk) because you know what you're going to get. With a stacked Padres lineup and a propensity to collect quality starts, Musgrove checks all the boxes for one of the highest floors in the 2023 SP pool.

Clayton Kershaw will be 35 on Opening Day, a game he has a high chance to start. He still has elite breaking balls that limit hard contact and strikes out more than a batter per inning. Kershaw has always pitched as though allowing walks offends him to his core, and he is still in the 93rd percentile in walk rate. Fantasy managers need only remember that his days of 30 starts are long gone, and he will have one or two IL stints during the season. Assuming his ADP remains reasonable, he is an asset to your staff.

Logan Webb flashed his strikeout upside in 2021, leading to fantasy managers overvaluing him in 2022. Instead, his K/9 reverted back to his earlier 7.63 range versus the 9.59 K/9 outlier. Webb utilized his slider and changeup more last season, which helped to protect his ERA and WHIP. Even though the Giants finished last in defensive runs saved, his high ground ball rate didn't hurt him. Webb is more of an SP3/SP4 now and should be drafted as such.

Blake Snell pitched exactly the same number of innings in 2022 as he did in 2021, but he slashed three percentage points off his walk rate to lower his ERA and WHIP to fantasy-relevant levels. He will always strike out a high percentage of batters (32% last season), but his health is a question mark so expect him to miss some time if you draft him.

If you feel the need for pitching speed, Hunter Greene offers you all that and then some. Unfortunately, he also offers 3.4 BB/9 as he sometimes isn't sure where his 100-mph throws will end up. Down the stretch in 2022, he showed improvement with a 45:8 K:BB ratio in August and September. The 23-year-old is projected to have a K-rate north of 30%, and he will certainly boost a fantasy team's strikeout count. He pitches for a terrible team in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, so there will be growing pains, but if he harnesses his talent, he will be a steal at his current ADP.

Lance Lynn suffered a knee injury late in Spring Training that cost him two months of the season. When he returned, it looked like all of the skills that made him so highly sought after had disappeared. He had an unsightly 6.42 ERA heading into August and was getting clobbered by hitters. From August til the end of the season, however, he carried a 2.43 ERA and returned to his low-walk, low-HR self. Lynn is a prime candidate to climb draft boards if he shows out during Spring Training given his history as a workhorse.

Nick Lodolo arrived on the scene and shortly thereafter hit the IL with a back injury. When he returned, he dazzled fantasy managers with his 11.41 K/9 and 3.49 xFIP. Yes, the Reds are going to be absolutely terrible, so there probably won't be many wins. But Lodolo is a strikeout machine (131 in 103 innings) and has the stuff to improve on his rookie numbers with a full season. Go get him.

Injuries limited Freddy Peralta to only 78 innings in 2022, but he put up elite numbers when he did take the mound. He allows weak contact and his xERA sits in the 90th percentile. The only question for fantasy managers is whether or not you believe he can stay healthy. If you think he'll cross the century mark in innings pitched, he's a steal at his current ADP.

While it's a terrible idea to chase wins on draft day, it is still worth noting that Kyle Wright had 21 of them in 2022. Wright was an entirely different pitcher in 2022 than he was the year before, cutting his BB% from 14.3 to 7.2 and raising his K% from 17.1 to 23.6. He ended with an ERA of 3.19 and WHIP of 1.16, and 174 strikeouts in 180 1/3 innings. Even accounting for some increase in ERA, his xFIP last year was 3.30, so the underlying metrics don't suggest extreme regression. Wright will be a helpful SP3 who can be had in the tenth round of most drafts.

While Father Time will claim all athletes at some point, the 39-year-old Morton seems to have an agreement in place to avoid being claimed yet. He started 31 games, pitched 172 innings, and struck out 205 batters last season, which makes that one of the quietest 200-strikeout seasons in memory. He continues to have an elite curve ball to match his 95-mph fastball and plays for the high-scoring Atlanta Braves. He is a safe pick in the late rounds of drafts.

 

Dustin May had a long road to his return from Tommy John surgery, and the rustiness was apparent when he took the mound for the first time on August 20. He has elite curveball and fastball spin rates, but he was a bit wild with the breaking pitches, which is pretty typical for pitchers coming back. Still just 25, May has a high upside for 2023, which would make him a steal at his current ADP. However, beware the innings limit that is sure to come.