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2023 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Expert Consensus Ranking (57 of 60 Experts) -

Rank Player (Team, Position) Overall Notes
1 Corbin Burnes (MIL - SP) 6 7.0 +1.0
The Brewers took the training wheels off for Corbin Burnes in 2022, allowing him to throw 202 innings after only 167 the year before. The 28-year-old didn't disappoint, striking out 243 batters while feasting on the free-swinging NL Central batters. Some fatigue appeared to set in following the All-Star Break, but overall, his numbers remained elite, with an xFIP of 2.85, a K/9 of 10.83, and a WHIP of 0.97. With no clear-cut SP1 in fantasy this season, Burnes is a solid choice, as he will buoy your pitching categories while pitching in front of a Top 10 defensive team.
2 Aaron Nola (PHI - SP) 12 13.0 +1.0
Aaron Nola had a wildly unlucky 2021 that most fantasy managers were aware of on draft day in 2022. The managers who took him were rewarded with more innings, strikeouts, and vastly improved ratios. Nola remains elite in BB% (3.6) and HardHit% (31.6) while allowing weak contact - which is good since his defense consisted of mostly should-be DHs. The 29-year-old picked up an extra 25 2/3 innings of postseason work, the first of his career, bringing his total innings to a career-high 230. Nola is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies, so he will have plenty of motivation to demonstrate his ability to serve as the ace of any staff.
3 Spencer Strider (ATL - SP,RP) 13 15.0 +2.0
Spencer Strider arrived in MLB in 2022 and promptly helped many a fantasy manager make the playoffs. He pitched 131 2/3 innings, striking out an obscene 202 batters with a devastating slider that came after his 98 mph fastball. He struggled with free passes, issuing 3.1 walks per nine, but he more than made up for that with a 16.4% swinging strike rate and K% of 38.3. After he signed a six-year, $75 million contract, the Braves should allow him to throw more innings, probably in the 150-160 range, and he should still have RP eligibility, making him a points-league stud as well. Strider has the makings of a bona fide ace and is only 24 years old. Draft him with confidence.
4 Sandy Alcantara (MIA - SP) IL15 14 12.0 -2.0
In 2022, Sandy Alcantara had Jacob deGrom on speed dial to discuss coping strategies for receiving little to no run support during a dominant pitching season. He had nine NDs, giving up an average of 1.5 earned runs while pitching more than six innings in all but one. Beyond that, Alcantara threw 228 innings with a 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts, winning the NL Cy Young with all 30 first-place votes. The 27-year-old demonstrated an easy delivery, and the Marlins demonstrated comfort in letting him go deep into ballgames. The concerns with Alcantara are related to over-drafting him coming off his career year and an xFIP that was an entire run above his ERA. He does not overpower hitters, but they struggle to make good contact against his three-pitch mix. He deserves a high draft pick - just recognize some slight regression may be on the horizon.
5 Brandon Woodruff (MIL - SP) 18 19.0 +1.0
Brandon Woodruff had a strange 2022 season. He only pitched 153 innings; he missed time due to a diagnosis of Raynaud's Syndrome, which affected the index, middle, and ring fingers on his pitching hand. He still struck out 190 batters and maintained a 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but the missed time and increased average exit velocity allowed left something to be desired for fantasy managers. The 13 wins were nice, and his underlying metrics remain stellar, but he comes with a little more risk than previously.
6 Zack Wheeler (PHI - SP) 24 25.0 +1.0
Zack Wheeler returned from his 2021 Cy Young runner-up campaign and defended his position as a top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. In 153 innings, the 31-year-old struck out 163 batters and ended the campaign with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The 153 innings were down from 213 1/3 in 2021, but this is actually encouraging in that the Phillies were cognizant of his usage. Wheeler will take the ball every fifth day and deliver a strikeout per inning, solid ratios, and should be a good source of wins for the defending National League Champions and your fantasy squad.
7 Julio Urias (LAD - SP) RST 26 24.0 -2.0
Julio Urias ended the 2022 season with a shiny 2.16 ERA, but this belies some concerning underlying numbers that pushed his xFIP to 3.81. The 26-year-old benefited from an excellent defense and an unsustainable .229 BABIP, while his HR/9 went up to 1.2. Those are the negatives. On the positive side, his spin rates are still above the 90th percentile, and he threw 175 innings, taking the ball every fifth day like clockwork. For 5x5 leagues, Urias finished third in the majors with 17 wins last year, and while it's not great to chase that category, he seems a safe bet to do well in it. Draft him expecting some regression, but he is still a very good pitcher on a behemoth of a team with a great defense.
8 Max Fried (ATL - SP) 28 27.0 -1.0
In 2022, Max Fried demonstrated that pristine control and location can still be effective in today's Triple-Digit SP Society. In 185 innings pitched, he struck out 170 batters while walking only 32. He limits hard contact and uses a four-pitch combination to sit in the 91st percentile of chase rate. The 29-year-old will give fantasy managers six innings in most games, and he will anchor your SP ratios to sit in the 2.70/1.05 range. He might be the best SP2 on the board and available in the sixth round in most drafts.
9 Zac Gallen (ARI - SP) 30 32.0 +2.0
Injury-averse fantasy managers missed out on Zac Gallen's first healthy season in 2022, which saw him start 31 games and throw 184 innings. He struck out 192 batters on his way to a 2.54 ERA and sparkling 0.91 WHIP. The 27-year-old throws his fastball almost half the time but finishes hitters off with his curveball and changeup equally. He limits hard contact, and his 4.09 K/BB ratio is in the upper echelon of the majors. Arizona is on the upswing, but the Diamondbacks are often forgotten about on draft day. A healthy Gallen is a steal at his ADP of 74.
10 Yu Darvish (SD - SP) IL15 29 29.0
Yu Darvish is an often-overlooked starter in fantasy drafts, be it his age or his past inflated ERA that drive people away. His 2022 numbers, however, rewarded whoever took him two rounds too late, finishing 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and 197 strikeouts in 194 2/3 innings. Nothing in his underlying metrics looks like a giant red flag. His value is great in the sixth or seventh round, and even though we don't chase wins, he plays for a team who should put him in line for many of them. He turns 37 in August, but he could be a sneaky great pick on draft day.
11 Joe Musgrove (SD - SP) IL15 41 41.0
Joe Musgrove has been a picture of pitching consistency over the past two seasons, with his stats almost eerily similar. His strikeouts were down, but so were his walks and ERA. He had identical WHIPs of 1.08 and has started more than 30 games in four of the past five seasons (excluding 2020). Drafting the 30-year-old is a smart idea if you pick an SP1 with more upside (and more risk) because you know what you're going to get. With a stacked Padres lineup and a propensity to collect quality starts, Musgrove checks all the boxes for one of the highest floors in the 2023 SP pool.
12 Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP) 43 44.0 +1.0
Clayton Kershaw will be 35 on Opening Day, a game he has a high chance to start. He still has elite breaking balls that limit hard contact and strikes out more than a batter per inning. Kershaw has always pitched as though allowing walks offends him to his core, and he is still in the 93rd percentile in walk rate. Fantasy managers need only remember that his days of 30 starts are long gone, and he will have one or two IL stints during the season. Assuming his ADP remains reasonable, he is an asset to your staff.
13 Logan Webb (SF - SP) 46 43.0 -3.0
Logan Webb flashed his strikeout upside in 2021, leading to fantasy managers overvaluing him in 2022. Instead, his K/9 reverted back to his earlier 7.63 range versus the 9.59 K/9 outlier. Webb utilized his slider and changeup more last season, which helped to protect his ERA and WHIP. Even though the Giants finished last in defensive runs saved, his high ground ball rate didn't hurt him. Webb is more of an SP3/SP4 now and should be drafted as such.
14 Blake Snell (SD - SP) 47 50.0 +3.0
Blake Snell pitched exactly the same number of innings in 2022 as he did in 2021, but he slashed three percentage points off his walk rate to lower his ERA and WHIP to fantasy-relevant levels. He will always strike out a high percentage of batters (32% last season), but his health is a question mark so expect him to miss some time if you draft him.
15 Hunter Greene (CIN - SP) 52 48.0 -4.0
If you feel the need for pitching speed, Hunter Greene offers you all that and then some. Unfortunately, he also offers 3.4 BB/9 as he sometimes isn't sure where his 100-mph throws will end up. Down the stretch in 2022, he showed improvement with a 45:8 K:BB ratio in August and September. The 23-year-old is projected to have a K-rate north of 30%, and he will certainly boost a fantasy team's strikeout count. He pitches for a terrible team in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, so there will be growing pains, but if he harnesses his talent, he will be a steal at his current ADP.
16 Lance Lynn (LAD - SP) 56 54.0 -2.0
Lance Lynn suffered a knee injury late in Spring Training that cost him two months of the season. When he returned, it looked like all of the skills that made him so highly sought after had disappeared. He had an unsightly 6.42 ERA heading into August and was getting clobbered by hitters. From August til the end of the season, however, he carried a 2.43 ERA and returned to his low-walk, low-HR self. Lynn is a prime candidate to climb draft boards if he shows out during Spring Training given his history as a workhorse.
17 Nick Lodolo (CIN - SP) IL60 58 57.0 -1.0
Nick Lodolo arrived on the scene and shortly thereafter hit the IL with a back injury. When he returned, he dazzled fantasy managers with his 11.41 K/9 and 3.49 xFIP. Yes, the Reds are going to be absolutely terrible, so there probably won't be many wins. But Lodolo is a strikeout machine (131 in 103 innings) and has the stuff to improve on his rookie numbers with a full season. Go get him.
18 Freddy Peralta (MIL - SP) 59 62.0 +3.0
Injuries limited Freddy Peralta to only 78 innings in 2022, but he put up elite numbers when he did take the mound. He allows weak contact and his xERA sits in the 90th percentile. The only question for fantasy managers is whether or not you believe he can stay healthy. If you think he'll cross the century mark in innings pitched, he's a steal at his current ADP.
19 Kyle Wright (ATL - SP) 64 59.0 -5.0
While it's a terrible idea to chase wins on draft day, it is still worth noting that Kyle Wright had 21 of them in 2022. Wright was an entirely different pitcher in 2022 than he was the year before, cutting his BB% from 14.3 to 7.2 and raising his K% from 17.1 to 23.6. He ended with an ERA of 3.19 and WHIP of 1.16, and 174 strikeouts in 180 1/3 innings. Even accounting for some increase in ERA, his xFIP last year was 3.30, so the underlying metrics don't suggest extreme regression. Wright will be a helpful SP3 who can be had in the tenth round of most drafts.
20 Charlie Morton (ATL - SP) 62 68.0 +6.0
While Father Time will claim all athletes at some point, the 39-year-old Morton seems to have an agreement in place to avoid being claimed yet. He started 31 games, pitched 172 innings, and struck out 205 batters last season, which makes that one of the quietest 200-strikeout seasons in memory. He continues to have an elite curve ball to match his 95-mph fastball and plays for the high-scoring Atlanta Braves. He is a safe pick in the late rounds of drafts.
21 Jesus Luzardo (MIA - SP) 70 70.0
 
22 Dustin May (LAD - SP) IL60 71 67.0 -4.0
Dustin May had a long road to his return from Tommy John surgery, and the rustiness was apparent when he took the mound for the first time on August 20. He has elite curveball and fastball spin rates, but he was a bit wild with the breaking pitches, which is pretty typical for pitchers coming back. Still just 25, May has a high upside for 2023, which would make him a steal at his current ADP. However, beware the innings limit that is sure to come.
23 Tony Gonsolin (LAD - SP) IL60 92 85.0 -7.0
 
24 Alex Cobb (SF - SP) IL15 96 104.0 +8.0
 
25 Kodai Senga (NYM - SP) 95 79.0 -16.0
 
26 Miles Mikolas (STL - SP) 98 95.0 -3.0
 
27 Edward Cabrera (MIA - SP) 102 107.0 +5.0
 
28 Merrill Kelly (ARI - SP) 106 100.0 -6.0
 
29 Jameson Taillon (CHC - SP) 111 117.0 +6.0
 
30 Trevor Rogers (MIA - SP) IL60 113 114.0 +1.0
 
31 Marcus Stroman (CHC - SP) 116 125.0 +9.0
 
32 Carlos Carrasco (NYM - SP) IL15 115 121.0 +6.0
 
33 Sean Manaea (SF - RP,SP) 122 129.0 +7.0
 
34 Eric Lauer (MIL - SP) IL15 128 136.0 +8.0
 
35 Justin Steele (CHC - SP) 133 140.0 +7.0
 
36 Roansy Contreras (PIT - RP,SP) MiLB 131 188.0 +57.0
 
37 Ranger Suarez (PHI - SP) 132 143.0 +11.0
 
38 Ross Stripling (SF - SP,RP) 140 122.0 -18.0
 
39 Taijuan Walker (PHI - SP) 138 138.0
 
40 Hayden Wesneski (CHC - RP,SP) 136 130.0 -6.0
 
41 David Peterson (NYM - SP,RP) 153 176.0 +23.0
 
42 Alex Wood (SF - RP,SP) 161 200.0 +39.0
 
43 Aaron Ashby (MIL - SP,RP) IL60 150 141.0 -9.0
 
44 Adam Wainwright (STL - SP) 156 151.0 -5.0
 
45 Steven Matz (STL - SP,RP) IL15 170 177.0 +7.0
 
46 Mitch Keller (PIT - SP) 182 191.0 +9.0
 
47 Josiah Gray (WSH - SP) 174 190.0 +16.0
 
48 MacKenzie Gore (WSH - SP) IL15 173 178.0 +5.0
 
49 Jared Shuster (ATL - SP) MiLB 190 168.0 -22.0
 
50 Graham Ashcraft (CIN - SP) IL60 195 187.0 -8.0
 
51 Tylor Megill (NYM - SP,RP) 184 162.0 -22.0
 
52 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI - SP) 183 212.0 +29.0
 
53 German Marquez (COL - SP) IL60 178 161.0 -17.0
 
54 Jose Quintana (NYM - SP) 209 183.0 -26.0
 
55 Ryan Pepiot (LAD - SP) 218 189.0 -29.0
 
56 Michael Wacha (SD - SP) 208 207.0 -1.0
 
57 Ryne Nelson (ARI - SP) 212 259.0 +47.0
 
58 Michael Soroka (ATL - SP) IL60 177 243.0 +66.0
 
59 Drey Jameson (ARI - RP,SP) IL60 216 180.0 -36.0
 
60 Gavin Stone (LAD - SP) 231 304.0 +73.0
 
61 Nick Martinez (SD - SP,RP) 243 219.0 -24.0
 
62 Anthony DeSclafani (SF - SP) IL60 204 240.0 +36.0
 
63 Bailey Falter (PIT - SP) 255 237.0 -18.0
 
64 Braxton Garrett (MIA - SP) 227 206.0 -21.0
 
65 Andrew Painter (PHI - SP) MiLB 252 185.0 -67.0
 
66 Dylan Dodd (ATL - SP) MiLB 267 233.0 -34.0
 
67 JT Brubaker (PIT - SP) IL60 277 234.0 -43.0
 
68 Drew Smyly (CHC - RP,SP) 242 253.0 +11.0
 
69 Luis L. Ortiz (PIT - SP) 246    
 
70 Kyle Harrison (SF - SP) 280 263.0 -17.0
 
71 Johnny Cueto (MIA - SP) 245 192.0 -53.0
 
72 Seth Lugo (SD - RP,SP) 270 278.0 +8.0
 
73 Yonny Chirinos (ATL - RP,SP) IL60 294 323.0 +29.0
 
74 Ian Anderson (ATL - SP) MiLB 326 252.0 -74.0
 
75 Kyle Hendricks (CHC - SP) 357 273.0 -84.0
 
76 Rich Hill (SD - SP) 281 334.0 +53.0
 
77 Michael Lorenzen (PHI - RP,SP) 269 260.0 -9.0
 
78 Stephen Strasburg (WSH - SP) IL60 381 184.0 -197.0
 
79 Eury Perez (MIA - SP) 349 325.0 -24.0
 
80 Sixto Sanchez (MIA - SP) MiLB 307 292.0 -15.0
 
81 Bobby Miller (LAD - SP) 323 305.0 -18.0
 
82 Chris Flexen (COL - SP,RP) 320 264.0 -56.0
 
83 Walker Buehler (LAD - SP) IL60 287 147.0 -140.0
 
84 Jakob Junis (SF - SP,RP) 327 319.0 -8.0
 
85 Patrick Corbin (WSH - SP) 373 298.0 -75.0
 
86 Joey Lucchesi (NYM - SP) 317 375.0 +58.0
 
87 JT Chargois (MIA - SP,RP) 335    
 
88 Max Meyer (MIA - SP) IL60 383 421.0 +38.0
 
89 Glenn Otto (SD - RP,SP) MiLB 296 276.0 -20.0
 
90 Bryce Elder (ATL - SP) 340 246.0 -94.0
 
91 Wade Miley (MIL - SP) 322 302.0 -20.0
 
92 Scott Alexander (SF - SP,RP) 325    
 
93 Elieser Hernandez (NYM - SP,RP) IL60 310 347.0 +37.0
 
94 Kyle Freeland (COL - SP) IL15 379 290.0 -89.0
 
95 Zach Davies (ARI - SP) 315 381.0 +66.0
 
96 Michael Grove (LAD - SP) IL15 361 373.0 +12.0
 
97 Keegan Thompson (CHC - SP,RP) MiLB 306 267.0 -39.0
 
98 John Brebbia (SF - SP,RP) 365 417.0 +52.0
 
99 Vince Velasquez (PIT - SP,RP) IL60 355    
 
100 Trevor Williams (WSH - SP,RP) 384 349.0 -35.0
 
101 Adrian Houser (MIL - SP) 375 344.0 -31.0
 
102 Reiver Sanmartin (CIN - SP,RP) IL60 394    
 
103 Andre Pallante (STL - SP,RP) 396 398.0 +2.0
 
104 Johan Oviedo (PIT - SP,RP) 321 316.0 -5.0
 
105 Tejay Antone (CIN - SP,RP) IL15 395 378.0 -17.0
 
106 Jimmy Nelson (LAD - SP,RP) IL60 445    
 
107 Alex Reyes (LAD - SP,RP) IL60 414 265.0 -149.0
 
108 Chi Chi Gonzalez (MIA - SP) DFA      
 
109 Javier Assad (CHC - RP,SP) 420 283.0 -137.0
 
110 Mark Leiter Jr. (CHC - SP,RP) 342    
 
111 Matthew Liberatore (STL - RP,SP) 345 322.0 -23.0
 
112 Darius Vines (ATL - SP) MiLB 371    
 
113 Thaddeus Ward (WSH - RP,SP) 427    
 
114 Cristopher Sanchez (PHI - SP,RP) 438    
 
115 Austin Gomber (COL - SP,RP) IL60 407    
 
116 Quinn Priester (PIT - SP)   394.0  
 
117 Chris Clarke (CHC - SP) MiLB 463    
 
118 Jay Groome (SD - SP) MiLB 483 408.0 -75.0
 
119 Jose Butto (NYM - SP) 397    
 
120 Ryan Yarbrough (LAD - SP,RP) 559 365.0 -194.0
 
121 Packy Naughton (STL - SP,RP) IL60 465    
 
122 Peyton Battenfield (NYM - SP) MiLB 409    
 
123 Bryse Wilson (MIL - SP,RP) 488 350.0 -138.0
 
124 Connor Overton (CIN - SP) IL60 412    
 
125 Connor Seabold (COL - RP,SP) MiLB 540 425.0 -115.0
 
126 Caleb Kilian (CHC - SP) MiLB 415 404.0 -11.0
 
127 Cory Abbott (WSH - SP,RP) 507    
 
128 Tyson Miller (LAD - RP,SP) MiLB 419    
 
129 Konnor Pilkington (ARI - SP) MiLB 450 411.0 -39.0
 
130 Joe Ross (SF - SP) MiLB 422    
 
131 Thomas Hatch (PIT - RP,SP) MiLB 428    
 
132 Janson Junk (MIL - P,SP) MiLB 424    
 
133 Dakota Hudson (STL - RP,SP) 474 338.0 -136.0
 
134 Devin Smeltzer (MIA - RP,SP) MiLB      
 
135 Andrew Abbott (CIN - SP) 429    
 
136 Tommy Henry (ARI - SP) IL60 521 420.0 -101.0
 
137 Alan Rangel (ATL - SP,RP) MiLB      
 
138 Mike Burrows (PIT - SP) MiLB 433    
 
139 Griff McGarry (PHI - SP) MiLB 469    
 
140 Daniel Castano (MIA - SP) MiLB 434    
 
141 Ben Brown (CHC - SP) MiLB      
 
142 Drew Hutchison (PHI - SP,RP) MiLB 470 330.0 -140.0
 
143 Victor Vodnik (COL - SP,RP) 548    
 
144 Connor Thomas (STL - SP) MiLB 392 418.0 +26.0
 
145 Ethan Small (MIL - SP) MiLB 454 390.0 -64.0
 
146 Cody Bolton (PIT - RP,SP) MiLB 442    
 
147 George Soriano (MIA - SP,RP) 490    
 
148 Mick Abel (PHI - SP) MiLB 449 383.0 -66.0
 
149 Alec Mills (CIN - SP,RP) MiLB 621    
 
150 Brandon Williamson (CIN - SP) 536    
 
151 Jason Alexander (MIL - SP,RP) MiLB 564    
 
152 Gus Varland (LAD - SP,RP) IL60 581    
 
153 Robert Gasser (MIL - SP) MiLB   393.0  
 
154 Nick Neidert (CHC - SP) MiLB      
 
155 Landon Knack (LAD - SP) MiLB      
 
156 Chase Anderson (COL - SP) 620    
 
157 Julio Teheran (MIL - SP) 537    
 
158 Aaron Sanchez (ARI - SP,RP) MiLB 563    
 
159 Tyler Gilbert (ARI - RP,SP) MiLB      
 
160 Jackson Tetreault (WSH - SP) MiLB 461    
 
161 Tyler Chatwood (ARI - SP,RP) MiLB 599    
 
162 Ben Lively (CIN - SP,RP) 464    
 
163 Ryan Weathers (MIA - SP) MiLB 532    
 
164 Vladimir Gutierrez (CIN - SP) IL60 485    
 
165 Randy Rodriguez (SF - RP,SP) MiLB      
 
166 Nick Margevicius (ATL - SP,RP) MiLB      
 
167 Evan McKendry (MIL - SP) MiLB      
 
168 Justin Dunn (CIN - SP) IL60 589 416.0 -173.0
 
169 Drew Strotman (SF - SP) MiLB      
 
170 Slade Cecconi (ARI - SP,RP) MiLB 484    
 
171 Jared Koenig (SD - SP,RP) MiLB 518    
 
172 Ryan Feltner (COL - SP) 608 356.0 -252.0
 
173 Jake Irvin (WSH - SP) 524    
 
174 Wilmer Font (SD - SP,RP) MiLB      
 
175 Karl Kauffmann (COL - RP,SP) MiLB 569    
 
176 Ryan Rolison (COL - SP) IL60 584    
 
177 Levi Stoudt (CIN - SP) MiLB 605    
 
178 Peter Solomon (ARI - SP,RP) MiLB      
 
179 Drew Rom (STL - SP)      
 
180 Josh Rogers (COL - SP,RP) MiLB      
 
181 Joan Adon (WSH - SP) 633    
 
182 Kade McClure (SF - SP,RP) MiLB      
 
183 Peter Lambert (COL - RP,SP) IL15 631    
 
184 Antonio Senzatela (COL - SP) IL60 646    
 
185 Tristan Beck (SF - RP,SP)      
 
186 Keaton Winn (SF - SP) IL15      
 
187 Ricky Vanasco (LAD - SP,RP) MiLB      
 
188 Hans Crouse (PHI - SP) MiLB      
 
189 Casey Legumina (CIN - SP,RP) MiLB      
 
190 Jeff Criswell (COL - SP) MiLB      
 
191 Lyon Richardson (CIN - SP) MiLB      
 
192 Cole Henry (WSH - SP)      
 
193 Tommy Romero (WSH - P,SP) MiLB      
 
194 Thomas Eshelman (SD - SP) MiLB      
 
195 Humberto Castellanos (ARI - SP) MiLB