2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Looking for 18 wins, 220 innings and nearly 300 strikeouts? You can virtually lock it in with Scherzer. Not only that, be he has a 0.975 WHIP over the past six seasons. That is downright unfair. Don't hesitate to grab him late in the 1st round this year.

deGrom was magical in 2018 and while there is a chance that continues into this season, we have to remember that the two prior seasons, he carried a 3.32 ERA with just 382 Ks and 22 wins. While that makes for a useful pitcher, the risk of him returning to that leaves him below Sale and Scherzer's tier

Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick

Prior to an injury in the second half, Bauer was among the top pitchers in baseball. He still struck out 221 batters in 175 innings, but with health, those numbers could easily climb to 270 in 215 innings

Thor has elite stuff without a doubt, but the numbers haven't quite made it to the top tier of pitchers. Rather, he has just one season with 170 strikeouts and has yet to win 15 games. You may argue that a Cy Young is right around the corner, but we've been saying that for three years now and it is starting to look like we have another Strasburg on our hands

After tearing through the minors, Buehler pitcher pretty well for the Dodgers in the first half. Then a flip switched and he proceeded to become one of the top pitchers in baseball over the second half, posting a 2.03 ERA with 92 Ks and just a .165 BA allowed in 80 innings. Draft him accordingly

Corbin was an absolute monster last season, striking out 246 batters with a 1.05 WHIP and 3.15 ERA. Granted, those ratios are likely to jump, perhaps even half a run in ERA, but he should also add considerably to his 11 wins from 2018 now that he is in Washington

There is a lot of appeal in drafting an upside pitcher like Strasburg, but keep in mind that he averages just 145 innings over the last four years. Even with an excellent strikeout rate, that comes to just 174 Ks per season. The ratios will likely be golden again, but know that there is plenty of risk in spending a 5th or 6th round pick on him this year

Flaherty was absurdly good last season as a rookie and seemed to improve as the year went on, striking out 95 in 76 second half innings. With that said, his walk rate climbed to a dangerous 3.52 per nine innings by seasons end. He has the upside to strike out 240 batters, but there is some risk here as well

If you look at Taillon's second half, it may seem as though he broke out into an ace, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Rather, he was propped up by a great deal of BABIP and HR/FB ratio luck. Most likely, he will continue to pitch like a good #3 this season for Pittsburgh.

For the first time in a decade, there is quite a bit of risk with drafting Kershaw. He hasn't pitched 180 innings since 2015 and saw his strikeout rate plummet from 10.4 to 8.6 per nine innings. You can bank on top-notch ratios, but because of the innings a low strikeout totals and a potential shoulder injury, Kershaw has fallen into the third-tier of fantasy pitchers this year.

Wheeler has had struggles staying on the field but even if we can get 120 innings of the way he pitched to close the season, he would prove well worth a mid-round pick's investment. He may be the breakout ace that no one in the industry seems to be talking about this year.

Marquez had a terrific strikeout-to-walk ratio last season, but still finished with an ERA of 3.77, which feels like a best-case scenario for a pitcher who calls Coors Field home. Marquez should provide plenty of innings and strikeouts and his fair share of wins, but he's not likely to be of much help when it comes to ERA and WHIP.

Mikolas had an incredible season in his first year back from pitching in Japan, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while winning 18 games for the Cardinals. His weak strikeout rate is a bit of a detriment in roto leagues with low innings caps, but it isn't too big a deal in points leagues. That said, he's due for a bit of a correction in his BABIP and HRs allowed, which should cause his ERA to rise at least into the mid-3.00s. He can still be a useful fantasy pitcher in most formats, but could be overvalued.

Bumgarner was one of the best fantasy starters out there until a couple of years ago, but he hasn't been quite the same since his 2017 dirt bike accident. He has remained a help in ERA thanks to his ability to limit base hits, but his strikeout rate has plummeted and last year his walk rate rose as well. Bumgarner's peripherals suggest he is playing with fire, even in a very pitcher-friendly environment in San Francisco. Still just 29 years old, a big bounce back season cannot be completely discounted, but there is no question that Bumgarner is a risk-reward choice on draft day.

Ray took a big step backward last year in the ratios but still racked up 165 Ks in just over 120 innings pitcher. There is still upside for an ace pitcher here and the floor may be about what we got last year which didn't kill anyone's championship hopes. He makes for a quality mid-round pick.

Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.

His success defies common convention, but how many times does Hendricks have to prove himself as a sustainable anomaly? He boasts a 3.07 career ERA in 789 innings, only once going over 3.45 (3.95 in 2015). He has made at least 30 starts in three of the last four seasons, and a stellar 5.4% walk rate led to a 1.15 WHIP in 2018. Despite his lacking velocity, The Professor typically records 160-170 strikeouts over a full season of work. He's a boring, but effective SP3 to pair with high-upside strikeout pitchers.

Archer has proven to be a pitcher who consistently posts a higher ERA than his advanced metrics suggest he deserves. At this point, we should no longer be expecting that to suddenly change. Until we see otherwise, expect Archer to post an ERA around 4.00, a WHIP in the 1.20s, and a fairly strong strikeout rate.

Darvish missed most of the 2018 season due to elbow and triceps injuries, and he was clearly not himself for the 40 innings he was able to pitch. Health has been a constant concern for Darvish, but he's been a consistently dominant strikeout pitcher, and last year was the first time in his Major League career that he's had an ERA over 3.90 or WHIP above 1.28. His team context in Chicago remains great, so the chance of a big bounce back season is there if he can just stay off of the DL.

Pivetta's peripherals say that his ERA should have been much better than 4.77 last year, but he was victimized by a high BABIP, low strand rate, and lots and lots of home runs. This is an elite bat misser who has thrown fewer than 300 innings at the Major League level, so there is some breakout potential here. We'll learn this season whether Pivetta is ready to take a step forward or if he's the next in a line of pitchers who don't quite live up to their peripherals.

It's a bit surprising how much the ECR favors Hill over Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Ross Stripling. All are superb options when healthy, but none should be trusted to work any more than 135 innings. So why such a heavy preference for Hill? The unlikely reclamation project turns 39 before starting the season, and he wasn't as elite (3.66 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.57 SIERA) in 2018's 132.2 innings. Drafters must exude patience, as he has struggled out of the gate in each of the last two seasons. In what should come as a surprise to nobody, he's already dealing with a short-term MCL injury that will delay his scheduled Opening Day start. He's a strong SP2 or 3 in the starts he makes, but it wouldn't be shocking to see him run out of steam. Just don't drop him much for this injury; such issues were already expected and factored into his draft cost.

A relative afterthought in many 2018 drafts, Foltynewicz fastened a 2.85 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 183 frames. Deploying fewer sinkers and more sliders helped unlock his upside, but beware paying full freight for an encore. A substandard 3.34 BB/9 could cause more trouble if a .253 BABIP rises near his .303 career norm. This was a case of not paying for the career year before elbow soreness threatened his wipe out multiple April starts.

Hamels displayed all the signs of a pitcher in decline during his three seasons in Texas, but he rebounded nicely upon joining the Cubs at midseason last year. It's hard to know exactly what version of Hamels we'll get at this point, but being in the National League should help. It's not unreasonable to hope for a sub-4.00 ERA, a WHIP in the low 1.20s, and close to a strikeout per inning in 2019.

Over his first three seasons with the Dodgers, Maeda has finished as the SP19, SP33, and SP49 in standard 5x5 rotisserie leagues, despite averaging just 145 innings pitched per season. He is a good bet to again produce an ERA around 3.80, WHIP around 1.20, and better than a strikeout per inning. While it would be unwise to expect more than around 130 innings from Maeda this season, given how the Dodgers have handled Maeda and the rest of their pitching staff over the last couple years, he's proven he can be a solid mixed league asset even with a limited workload. He's particularly valuable in shallower leagues (10/12 team leagues with short benches) and leagues with multiple DL spots, since there will be decent fill-ins available for the starts he misses in those formats.

 

Ryu was terrific when healthy last season, posting a 1.97 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 9.73 K/9 across 15 starts. You can never expect more than around 100 innings from Ryu, but they'll be good innings -- think a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 9+ K/9.

Let's not forget how awesome Stripling was to start the season. He posted a 2.39 ERA with an MLB-high 11.38 BB/K ratio before the All-Star break. Despite finishing with a 3.02 ERA, he underperformed a .266 xwOBA that finished ninth among all starters. A potential top-25 starter if provided a secure job, he's instead a dicey top-50 choice with the Dodgers likely to give Kenta Maeda the fifth spot after Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. He'll earn some starts eventually, potentially to start the season if Kershaw (shoulder inflammation) and/or Buehler (arm) aren't ready, but Stripling may not significantly exceed last year's 122 innings. The skills make him worth a plunge at the right spot, especially with injuries already beginning to pile up for the NL champs.

Drafters would be forgiven for giving up on Gray, who continually fails to transfer his FIP (3.68) to a strong ERA (4.65). Coors can't take the full blame; he posted a 5.34 ERA on the road last season. Demoted during the season, he threw out a triumphant July return (1.66) by yielding 35 runs in his final 58.2 frames. With a four-seamer rocked to a career .326/.401/.512 slash line, Gray might never escape this purgatory, at least not with the Rockies. Then again, at least he's cheap now. Given the elite strikeout stuff, he might be worth a dart throw in shallower leagues. Investors, however, must be willing to pull the cord if his Jekyll and Hyde profile persists.

 

 

Despite his career 21.0% strikeout rate, Musgrove offers upside potential as a late-round flier. An 11.5% swinging-strike rate suggests he could fan more batters, especially if he maintains last summer's uptick in slider usage. He also wields excellent control, as shown by issuing just seven walks in 10 second-half starts. His .281 xwOBA matched that of Patrick Corbin, narrowly besting James Paxton and Pirates teammate Jameson Taillon. He has the makings of a sneaky SP3 who will only cost a bench pick.

One of this spring's trendiest risers, Paddack has turned heads with 20 strikeouts and two walks in 12.2 frames. This type of dominance is nothing new for the 6'4" righty, who registered an absurd 120 strikeouts to eight walks in 90 innings between Single-A and Double-A last season. After signing Manny Machado, the Padres may call up their prized prospect early in the season to prove they mean business. Yet Paddack assumed a limited workload last season after undergoing Tommy John in 2016, so he still may not toss more than 145 major league innings despite making the Opening Day roster. That's a problem to worry about later; the rookie needs to be owned in all leagues.

Jon Lester had 18 wins with a 3.32 ERA in 2018, so everyone seems to just assume he is still an ace. That couldn't be further from the truth, however. His skill-indicative ERA was 47th out of 57 qualified pitchers and he was a disaster in the second half. Like his former teammate, Jake Arrieta, things can fall apart quickly even for those who were once at the top of the game. He shouldn't be touched until at least the 13th round in a standard sized redraft league this year.

 

Wood will open 2019 on the IL with a back injury, but don't forget about him. Even before getting hurt, he was overlooked in drafts despite carrying a career 3.29 ERA and 3.36 FIP and gaining job security with a move from the Dodgers to the Reds. The park change and diminished velocity have caused valid concerns, but the 28-year-old righty should remain a solid No. 4 or 5 starter when healthy.

Keuchel will open 2019 without a team. Even if he signs, don't get too excited. Remember how a prolonged free agency worked out for Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, and Greg Holland last year? After posting a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with an underwhelming 153 strikeouts in 204.2 innings, the 31-year-old lefty isn't particularly alluring in shallow mixed leagues anyway. Drafters shouldn't feel too guilty about dropping him in a 10- or 12-team mixed league with limited bench slots.

Gausman will begin 2019 on the IL with a minor shoulder injury, but he could return as soon as April 5. He's still a sneaky post-hype sleeper whose strikeout rate dipped to 19.1% despite a career-high 11.3% swinging-strike rate. Once freed from Baltimore, he boasted a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts with the Braves.

 

 

Although prone to waning command on a start-to-start basis, Martinez had offered year-to-year consistency for three durable seasons before a shoulder injury limited him to 119.2 innings last season. He allowed three runs in 18.1 innings as a reliever down the stretch, which reportedly had the Cardinals considering a bullpen role even before shutting him down with a shoulder setback. The 27-year-old righty, who owns a career 3.37 ERA and 8.82 K/9, may no longer be available to open 2019 in the rotation. Daring drafters could snag him at an even cheaper price, but the health and usage risks alongside last year's 11.5% walk rate make him far from a lock to rebound.

Strahm is the ultimate sleeper, as he is a great bet to post killer numbers if he beats out the odds and makes the Padres rotation. He has been a stud in the bullpen when healthy but may end up there once again.

 

Reyes threw all of four innings in his return from Tommy John surgery before suffering a shoulder injury that knocked him out for the rest of the 2018 season. He enters 2019 as a total wildcard who isn't likely to be in the Opening Day rotation, but the talent is obvious. He could easily be a huge difference-maker for fantasy owners in the season's second half, if not earlier.

 

 

 

The majority of Dominguez' appeal was ruined when the Phillies signed David Robertson, who will almost certainly be their closer. With that said, Dominguez should be a three-category monster and well worth owning even without the saves.

 

 

Despite finishing top 10 in both strikeouts per nine innings and batting average against, Peralta is somehow not a lock to make the Brewers' rotation. If he pitches well enough in spring training, we've got one of the favorite candidates to break out this season. He'll have to earn his shot first.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With five, yes FIVE, talented starting pitchers ready to make a rookie splash in Atlanta, projection models aren't too sure what to make of Soroka, but he is the most polished and we expect him to come out of Spring Training with a spot in the rotation. Soroka has premier command of his pitches, and while he isn't a big strikeout guy, we could be looking at a Kyle Hendricks like fantasy asset. That is someone you'll want to get your hands on if he emerges as the Braves #5 starter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lugo is one of those rare assets who qualifies as both a starting pitcher and reliever. Most likely, he will be used exclusively in the bullpen where he may pile up another 100 innings of stellar ratios.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Erlin may not be a household name and you'll never feel sexy about drafting him, but if you want quality ratios, especially WHIP, he will answer the call late into drafts as your 6th starting pitcher.