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2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Expert Consensus Ranking (64 of 67 Experts) -
Rank Player (Team, Position) Overall Notes
1 Max Scherzer (WSH - SP) 2 1.0 -1.0
Looking for 18 wins, 220 innings and nearly 300 strikeouts? You can virtually lock it in with Scherzer. Not only that, be he has a 0.975 WHIP over the past six seasons. That is downright unfair. Don't hesitate to grab him late in the 1st round this year.
2 Jacob deGrom (NYM - SP) 6 6.0
deGrom was magical in 2018 and while there is a chance that continues into this season, we have to remember that the two prior seasons, he carried a 3.32 ERA with just 382 Ks and 22 wins. While that makes for a useful pitcher, the risk of him returning to that leaves him below Sale and Scherzer's tier
3 Aaron Nola (PHI - SP) 16 13.0 -3.0
Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
4 Trevor Bauer (CIN - SP) 19 16.0 -3.0
Prior to an injury in the second half, Bauer was among the top pitchers in baseball. He still struck out 221 batters in 175 innings, but with health, those numbers could easily climb to 270 in 215 innings
5 Noah Syndergaard (NYM - SP) 21 19.0 -2.0
Thor has elite stuff without a doubt, but the numbers haven't quite made it to the top tier of pitchers. Rather, he has just one season with 170 strikeouts and has yet to win 15 games. You may argue that a Cy Young is right around the corner, but we've been saying that for three years now and it is starting to look like we have another Strasburg on our hands
6 Walker Buehler (LAD - SP) 23 23.0
After tearing through the minors, Buehler pitcher pretty well for the Dodgers in the first half. Then a flip switched and he proceeded to become one of the top pitchers in baseball over the second half, posting a 2.03 ERA with 92 Ks and just a .165 BA allowed in 80 innings. Draft him accordingly
7 Patrick Corbin (WSH - SP) 33 25.0 -8.0
Corbin was an absolute monster last season, striking out 246 batters with a 1.05 WHIP and 3.15 ERA. Granted, those ratios are likely to jump, perhaps even half a run in ERA, but he should also add considerably to his 11 wins from 2018 now that he is in Washington
8 Stephen Strasburg (WSH - SP) 32 31.0 -1.0
There is a lot of appeal in drafting an upside pitcher like Strasburg, but keep in mind that he averages just 145 innings over the last four years. Even with an excellent strikeout rate, that comes to just 174 Ks per season. The ratios will likely be golden again, but know that there is plenty of risk in spending a 5th or 6th round pick on him this year
9 Jack Flaherty (STL - SP) 35 32.0 -3.0
Flaherty was absurdly good last season as a rookie and seemed to improve as the year went on, striking out 95 in 76 second half innings. With that said, his walk rate climbed to a dangerous 3.52 per nine innings by seasons end. He has the upside to strike out 240 batters, but there is some risk here as well
10 Jameson Taillon (PIT - SP) 36 36.0
If you look at Taillon's second half, it may seem as though he broke out into an ace, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Rather, he was propped up by a great deal of BABIP and HR/FB ratio luck. Most likely, he will continue to pitch like a good #3 this season for Pittsburgh.
11 Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP) 40 28.0 -12.0
For the first time in a decade, there is quite a bit of risk with drafting Kershaw. He hasn't pitched 180 innings since 2015 and saw his strikeout rate plummet from 10.4 to 8.6 per nine innings. You can bank on top-notch ratios, but because of the innings a low strikeout totals and a potential shoulder injury, Kershaw has fallen into the third-tier of fantasy pitchers this year.
12 Zack Wheeler (PHI - SP) 48 43.0 -5.0
Wheeler has had struggles staying on the field but even if we can get 120 innings of the way he pitched to close the season, he would prove well worth a mid-round pick's investment. He may be the breakout ace that no one in the industry seems to be talking about this year.
13 German Marquez (COL - SP) 51 42.0 -9.0
Marquez had a terrific strikeout-to-walk ratio last season, but still finished with an ERA of 3.77, which feels like a best-case scenario for a pitcher who calls Coors Field home. Marquez should provide plenty of innings and strikeouts and his fair share of wins, but he's not likely to be of much help when it comes to ERA and WHIP.
14 Miles Mikolas (STL - SP) 55 50.0 -5.0
Mikolas had an incredible season in his first year back from pitching in Japan, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while winning 18 games for the Cardinals. His weak strikeout rate is a bit of a detriment in roto leagues with low innings caps, but it isn't too big a deal in points leagues. That said, he's due for a bit of a correction in his BABIP and HRs allowed, which should cause his ERA to rise at least into the mid-3.00s. He can still be a useful fantasy pitcher in most formats, but could be overvalued.
15 Robbie Ray (ARI - SP) 60 59.0 -1.0
Ray took a big step backward last year in the ratios but still racked up 165 Ks in just over 120 innings pitcher. There is still upside for an ace pitcher here and the floor may be about what we got last year which didn't kill anyone's championship hopes. He makes for a quality mid-round pick.
16 Luis Castillo (CIN - SP) 61 67.0 +6.0
Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.
17 Kyle Hendricks (CHC - SP) 65 65.0
His success defies common convention, but how many times does Hendricks have to prove himself as a sustainable anomaly? He boasts a 3.07 career ERA in 789 innings, only once going over 3.45 (3.95 in 2015). He has made at least 30 starts in three of the last four seasons, and a stellar 5.4% walk rate led to a 1.15 WHIP in 2018. Despite his lacking velocity, The Professor typically records 160-170 strikeouts over a full season of work. He's a boring, but effective SP3 to pair with high-upside strikeout pitchers.
18 Chris Archer (PIT - SP) 64 63.0 -1.0
Archer has proven to be a pitcher who consistently posts a higher ERA than his advanced metrics suggest he deserves. At this point, we should no longer be expecting that to suddenly change. Until we see otherwise, expect Archer to post an ERA around 4.00, a WHIP in the 1.20s, and a fairly strong strikeout rate.
19 Yu Darvish (CHC - SP) 66 75.0 +9.0
Darvish missed most of the 2018 season due to elbow and triceps injuries, and he was clearly not himself for the 40 innings he was able to pitch. Health has been a constant concern for Darvish, but he's been a consistently dominant strikeout pitcher, and last year was the first time in his Major League career that he's had an ERA over 3.90 or WHIP above 1.28. His team context in Chicago remains great, so the chance of a big bounce back season is there if he can just stay off of the DL.
20 Nick Pivetta (PHI - SP) 72 79.0 +7.0
Pivetta's peripherals say that his ERA should have been much better than 4.77 last year, but he was victimized by a high BABIP, low strand rate, and lots and lots of home runs. This is an elite bat misser who has thrown fewer than 300 innings at the Major League level, so there is some breakout potential here. We'll learn this season whether Pivetta is ready to take a step forward or if he's the next in a line of pitchers who don't quite live up to their peripherals.
21 Mike Foltynewicz (ATL - SP) 73 58.0 -15.0
A relative afterthought in many 2018 drafts, Foltynewicz fastened a 2.85 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 183 frames. Deploying fewer sinkers and more sliders helped unlock his upside, but beware paying full freight for an encore. A substandard 3.34 BB/9 could cause more trouble if a .253 BABIP rises near his .303 career norm. This was a case of not paying for the career year before elbow soreness threatened his wipe out multiple April starts.
22 Cole Hamels (ATL - SP) 75 77.0 +2.0
Hamels displayed all the signs of a pitcher in decline during his three seasons in Texas, but he rebounded nicely upon joining the Cubs at midseason last year. It's hard to know exactly what version of Hamels we'll get at this point, but being in the National League should help. It's not unreasonable to hope for a sub-4.00 ERA, a WHIP in the low 1.20s, and close to a strikeout per inning in 2019.
23 Kenta Maeda (LAD - SP) 82 87.0 +5.0
Over his first three seasons with the Dodgers, Maeda has finished as the SP19, SP33, and SP49 in standard 5x5 rotisserie leagues, despite averaging just 145 innings pitched per season. He is a good bet to again produce an ERA around 3.80, WHIP around 1.20, and better than a strikeout per inning. While it would be unwise to expect more than around 130 innings from Maeda this season, given how the Dodgers have handled Maeda and the rest of their pitching staff over the last couple years, he's proven he can be a solid mixed league asset even with a limited workload. He's particularly valuable in shallower leagues (10/12 team leagues with short benches) and leagues with multiple DL spots, since there will be decent fill-ins available for the starts he misses in those formats.
24 Jose Quintana (CHC - SP) 87 82.0 -5.0
25 Ross Stripling (LAD - SP,RP) 92 96.0 +4.0
Let's not forget how awesome Stripling was to start the season. He posted a 2.39 ERA with an MLB-high 11.38 BB/K ratio before the All-Star break. Despite finishing with a 3.02 ERA, he underperformed a .266 xwOBA that finished ninth among all starters. A potential top-25 starter if provided a secure job, he's instead a dicey top-50 choice with the Dodgers likely to give Kenta Maeda the fifth spot after Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. He'll earn some starts eventually, potentially to start the season if Kershaw (shoulder inflammation) and/or Buehler (arm) aren't ready, but Stripling may not significantly exceed last year's 122 innings. The skills make him worth a plunge at the right spot, especially with injuries already beginning to pile up for the NL champs.
26 Jon Gray (COL - SP) 95 94.0 -1.0
Drafters would be forgiven for giving up on Gray, who continually fails to transfer his FIP (3.68) to a strong ERA (4.65). Coors can't take the full blame; he posted a 5.34 ERA on the road last season. Demoted during the season, he threw out a triumphant July return (1.66) by yielding 35 runs in his final 58.2 frames. With a four-seamer rocked to a career .326/.401/.512 slash line, Gray might never escape this purgatory, at least not with the Rockies. Then again, at least he's cheap now. Given the elite strikeout stuff, he might be worth a dart throw in shallower leagues. Investors, however, must be willing to pull the cord if his Jekyll and Hyde profile persists.
27 Joey Lucchesi (SD - SP) 89 100.0 +11.0
28 Jake Arrieta (PHI - SP) 96 95.0 -1.0
29 Chris Paddack (SD - SP) 94 114.0 +20.0
One of this spring's trendiest risers, Paddack has turned heads with 20 strikeouts and two walks in 12.2 frames. This type of dominance is nothing new for the 6'4" righty, who registered an absurd 120 strikeouts to eight walks in 90 innings between Single-A and Double-A last season. After signing Manny Machado, the Padres may call up their prized prospect early in the season to prove they mean business. Yet Paddack assumed a limited workload last season after undergoing Tommy John in 2016, so he still may not toss more than 145 major league innings despite making the Opening Day roster. That's a problem to worry about later; the rookie needs to be owned in all leagues.
30 Joe Musgrove (PIT - SP) 99 106.0 +7.0
Despite his career 21.0% strikeout rate, Musgrove offers upside potential as a late-round flier. An 11.5% swinging-strike rate suggests he could fan more batters, especially if he maintains last summer's uptick in slider usage. He also wields excellent control, as shown by issuing just seven walks in 10 second-half starts. His .281 xwOBA matched that of Patrick Corbin, narrowly besting James Paxton and Pirates teammate Jameson Taillon. He has the makings of a sneaky SP3 who will only cost a bench pick.
31 Jon Lester (CHC - SP) 101 81.0 -20.0
Jon Lester had 18 wins with a 3.32 ERA in 2018, so everyone seems to just assume he is still an ace. That couldn't be further from the truth, however. His skill-indicative ERA was 47th out of 57 qualified pitchers and he was a disaster in the second half. Like his former teammate, Jake Arrieta, things can fall apart quickly even for those who were once at the top of the game. He shouldn't be touched until at least the 13th round in a standard sized redraft league this year.
32 Kyle Freeland (COL - SP) 103 80.0 -23.0
33 Kevin Gausman (SF - SP) 112 107.0 -5.0
Gausman will begin 2019 on the IL with a minor shoulder injury, but he could return as soon as April 5. He's still a sneaky post-hype sleeper whose strikeout rate dipped to 19.1% despite a career-high 11.3% swinging-strike rate. Once freed from Baltimore, he boasted a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts with the Braves.
34 Steven Matz (NYM - SP) 120 123.0 +3.0
35 Carlos Martinez (STL - SP,RP) 115 98.0 -17.0
Although prone to waning command on a start-to-start basis, Martinez had offered year-to-year consistency for three durable seasons before a shoulder injury limited him to 119.2 innings last season. He allowed three runs in 18.1 innings as a reliever down the stretch, which reportedly had the Cardinals considering a bullpen role even before shutting him down with a shoulder setback. The 27-year-old righty, who owns a career 3.37 ERA and 8.82 K/9, may no longer be available to open 2019 in the rotation. Daring drafters could snag him at an even cheaper price, but the health and usage risks alongside last year's 11.5% walk rate make him far from a lock to rebound.
36 Matt Strahm (SD - SP,RP) 114 125.0 +11.0
Strahm is the ultimate sleeper, as he is a great bet to post killer numbers if he beats out the odds and makes the Padres rotation. He has been a stud in the bullpen when healthy but may end up there once again.
37 Sean Newcomb (ATL - SP) 113 109.0 -4.0
38 Alex Reyes (STL - SP) 125 124.0 -1.0
Reyes threw all of four innings in his return from Tommy John surgery before suffering a shoulder injury that knocked him out for the rest of the 2018 season. He enters 2019 as a total wildcard who isn't likely to be in the Opening Day rotation, but the talent is obvious. He could easily be a huge difference-maker for fantasy owners in the season's second half, if not earlier.
39 Sonny Gray (CIN - SP) 131 131.0
40 Julio Urias (LAD - SP) 123 129.0 +6.0
41 Luke Weaver (ARI - SP) 135 155.0 +20.0
42 Seranthony Dominguez (PHI - SP,RP) 122 122.0
The majority of Dominguez' appeal was ruined when the Phillies signed David Robertson, who will almost certainly be their closer. With that said, Dominguez should be a three-category monster and well worth owning even without the saves.
43 Brandon Woodruff (MIL - SP,RP) 128 134.0 +6.0
44 Anibal Sanchez (WSH - SP) 133 144.0 +11.0
45 Freddy Peralta (MIL - SP) 140 147.0 +7.0
Despite finishing top 10 in both strikeouts per nine innings and batting average against, Peralta is somehow not a lock to make the Brewers' rotation. If he pitches well enough in spring training, we've got one of the favorite candidates to break out this season. He'll have to earn his shot first.
46 Michael Wacha (SP) 148 132.0 -16.0
47 Marcus Stroman (NYM - SP) 150 135.0 -15.0
48 Trevor Williams (PIT - SP) 151 143.0 -8.0
49 Jeff Samardzija (SF - SP) 152 202.0 +50.0
50 Zach Eflin (PHI - SP,RP) 159 149.0 -10.0
51 Vince Velasquez (PHI - SP) 158 184.0 +26.0
52 Caleb Smith (MIA - SP) 160 193.0 +33.0
53 Mike Soroka (ATL - SP) 181 178.0 -3.0
With five, yes FIVE, talented starting pitchers ready to make a rookie splash in Atlanta, projection models aren't too sure what to make of Soroka, but he is the most polished and we expect him to come out of Spring Training with a spot in the rotation. Soroka has premier command of his pitches, and while he isn't a big strikeout guy, we could be looking at a Kyle Hendricks like fantasy asset. That is someone you'll want to get your hands on if he emerges as the Braves #5 starter.
54 Pablo Lopez (MIA - SP,RP) 163 225.0 +62.0
55 Touki Toussaint (ATL - SP) 169 158.0 -11.0
56 Kyle Wright (ATL - SP) 170 189.0 +19.0
57 Dereck Rodriguez (SF - SP) 180 145.0 -35.0
58 Eric Lauer (MIL - SP) 185 219.0 +34.0
59 Bryse Wilson (ATL - SP) 177 222.0 +45.0
60 Tyler Anderson (SF - SP) 192 212.0 +20.0
61 Jose Urena (MIA - SP) 196 206.0 +10.0
62 Anthony DeSclafani (CIN - SP) 212 190.0 -22.0
63 Drew Pomeranz (SD - SP) 222 165.0 -57.0
64 Mike Leake (ARI - SP) 193 192.0 -1.0
65 Jesus Reyes (CIN - SP,RP) MiLB 231    
66 Seth Lugo (NYM - SP,RP) 199 171.0 -28.0
Lugo is one of those rare assets who qualifies as both a starting pitcher and reliever. Most likely, he will be used exclusively in the bullpen where he may pile up another 100 innings of stellar ratios.
67 Sandy Alcantara (MIA - SP) 208 210.0 +2.0
68 Johnny Cueto (SF - SP) 195 162.0 -33.0
69 Ryne Stanek (MIA - SP,RP) 209 291.0 +82.0
70 Dinelson Lamet (SD - SP) 263 234.0 -29.0
71 Wei-Yin Chen (MIA - SP) FA 237 267.0 +30.0
72 Jose De Leon (CIN - SP,RP) 323 334.0 +11.0
73 Jake Faria (MIL - SP) 260 259.0 -1.0
74 Stephen Gonsalves (NYM - SP) 327 337.0 +10.0
75 Tyler Mahle (CIN - SP) 226 273.0 +47.0
76 Andrew Suarez (SF - SP) 243 236.0 -7.0
77 Caleb Ferguson (LAD - SP,RP) 232 301.0 +69.0
78 Daniel Ponce de Leon (STL - SP,RP) 321 282.0 -39.0
79 Joe Ross (WSH - SP) 291 232.0 -59.0
80 Zach Davies (SD - SP) 246 275.0 +29.0
81 Max Fried (ATL - SP,RP) 242 243.0 +1.0
82 Tyler Chatwood (CHC - SP) 329 321.0 -8.0
83 Jon Duplantier (ARI - SP) 252 276.0 +24.0
84 Antonio Senzatela (COL - SP,RP) 248 248.0
85 Taylor Widener (ARI - SP) 344 312.0 -32.0
86 Jharel Cotton (CHC - SP) 300 342.0 +42.0
87 John Gant (STL - SP,RP) 279 277.0 -2.0
88 Junior Guerra (ARI - SP,RP) 270 185.0 -85.0
89 Adam Wainwright (STL - SP) 278 211.0 -67.0
90 Matt Andriese (ARI - SP,RP) 259 263.0 +4.0
91 Mitch Keller (PIT - SP) 287 239.0 -48.0
92 Chris Stratton (PIT - SP) 271 299.0 +28.0
93 Robert Stephenson (CIN - SP) 322 264.0 -58.0
94 Erick Fedde (WSH - SP) 275 298.0 +23.0
95 Brandon Finnegan (CIN - SP) MiLB 351    
96 Brett Kennedy (SD - SP) MiLB 285    
97 Dylan Floro (LAD - SP,RP) 292    
98 Jeff Hoffman (COL - SP,RP) 372 391.0 +19.0
99 Dennis Santana (LAD - SP,RP) 330 300.0 -30.0
100 Luis Perdomo (SD - SP) 302    
101 Williams Perez (STL - SP,RP) MiLB 306    
102 Corey Oswalt (NYM - SP,RP) 332 332.0
103 Walker Lockett (NYM - SP,RP) 312    
104 Yefry Ramirez (PIT - SP,RP) MiLB 366    
105 Alex McRae (PIT - SP,RP) MiLB 324    
106 Corbin Martin (ARI - SP,RP) 325 394.0 +69.0
107 Jarlin Garcia (MIA - SP,RP) 326    
108 Austin Gomber (STL - SP,RP) 360 306.0 -54.0
109 Enyel De Los Santos (PHI - SP) 309 266.0 -43.0
110 Steven Brault (PIT - SP,RP) 374    
111 Brad Wieck (CHC - SP,RP) 363    
112 Robert Stock (PHI - SP,RP) 341    
113 Jordan Yamamoto (MIA - SP) 331 407.0 +76.0
114 Jose Lopez (CIN - 3B,SP) MiLB      
115 Tyler Beede (SF - SP) 364 354.0 -10.0
116 Austin Voth (WSH - SP) 334    
117 Sam Coonrod (SF - SP,RP) 335    
118 J.B. Bukauskas (ARI - SP) MiLB 336 381.0 +45.0
119 Ranger Suarez (PHI - SP,RP) 338 403.0 +65.0
120 Sal Romano (CIN - SP,RP) 345 271.0 -74.0
121 Jeff Brigham (MIA - SP) 342    
122 Taylor Clarke (ARI - SP) 346    
123 Duane Underwood Jr. (CHC - SP) 350    
124 Jacob Nix (SD - SP) MiLB 383 362.0 -21.0
125 Brett Graves (MIA - SP,RP) MiLB 367    
126 Troy Scribner (ARI - SP) MiLB 354    
127 Elieser Hernandez (MIA - SP,RP) 375    
128 P.J. Conlon (NYM - SP,RP) FA 359    
129 Trevor Oaks (SF - SP) 362    
130 Wander Suero (WSH - SP,RP) 390    
131 Sam Howard (PIT - SP,RP) 397    
132 Merandy Gonzalez (STL - SP,RP) MiLB 407    
133 Matt Koch (ARI - SP,RP) MiLB 395 393.0 -2.0
134 Clay Holmes (PIT - SP,RP) 410    
135 Allen Webster (CHC - SP) MiLB 415 249.0 -166.0
136 Alec Mills (CHC - SP,RP) 417 392.0 -25.0
137 Aaron Wilkerson (MIL - SP,RP) MiLB 419    
138 Kyle McGowin (WSH - SP,RP) 423    
139 Kyle Ryan (CHC - SP,RP) 436    
140 Harrison Musgrave (COL - SP,RP) MiLB 438    
141 Chris Flexen (NYM - SP,RP) FA 441    
142 Alec Asher (COL - SP,RP) MiLB 442    
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