2024 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Spencer Strider performed as advertised in 2023. He struck out a ridiculous 281 batters in 186 2/3 innings for a 13.55 K/9. His walk rate dropped for the third straight season, and his xBAA was .205. His outlier was a 3.86 ERA, but don't let this stop you from drafting him, as his xERA was 3.09. Strider is currently the first pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts. He is neck-and-neck with Gerrit Cole for best fantasy SP1.

Zack Wheeler continued his SP1 ways in 2023, racking up 212 strikeouts in 192 innings. His ERA was a little high (for him) at 3.61, and his xFIP supported that at 3.54. Wheeler is in the 95th percentile in BB% (5.0), so you can draft him knowing he will protect your WHIP better than many other aces. He also started 32 games, making his durability an asset as well. Wheeler remains at the top of Tier 2 after the Strider/Cole/Burnes triad, and you can probably get him in the third round.

Zac Gallen had a dominant 2023 and finished third in the NL Cy Young race. The 28-year-old tossed 210 innings and struck out 220 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. If we include the postseason, Gallen threw 243 2/3 innings, 60 innings more than his previous high. He gave up a lot of hard contact, and his xERA was 4.16. Gallen's xFIP was 3.49 on the plus side, and he continued to strike out more than one batter per inning. Gallen is a risky SP1, and his cost (currently in the third round) looks pretty high, given all the red flags heading into 2024.

Tyler Glasnow returned with a vengeance in 2023. Upon his return from Tommy John surgery, he threw 120 innings and struck out 162 batters. His 33.4 K% is in the 97th percentile, and his fastball velocity sat in the 96-mph range. His ERA was 3.53, but his xFIP was 2.75, suggesting that he dealt with some bad luck. (And if you know Glasnow, you know that he has dealt with a lot of bad luck in his career.) His WHIP also remained low at 1.08. Now, he joins a burgeoning SuperTeam in the Dodgers, where he will remain for the foreseeable future. He offers so much strikeout upside that it doesn't really matter where he plays. He would be in my Tier 1 of pitchers except for his injury history, which knocks him down ever so slightly.

If you dig the ground ball, Logan Webb might be your soulmate. The 27-year-old is in the 99th percentile of GB% at 62.7 and BB% of 3.6. He struck out 194 batters in 216 innings pitched, so while he is not the strikeout artist of an SP1, he will do wonders for your ratios. And if you're interested in a durable starter, Webb started 33 games last year and 32 games the year before. Webb is a set-and-forget guy who rarely blows up, protecting your weekly numbers as well.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will arrive in MLB with the powerhouse Dodgers in 2024, and while there may be an adjustment period for the 25-year-old, it shouldn't last too long. Yamamoto should come close to 200 strikeouts, though his ERA is projected to be near 4.00. However, as with all pitchers on outstanding teams, he does have slightly more win equity than others. As part of the $1 billion package that Los Angeles dropped on Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani, the former's ADP seems somewhat inflated for a pitcher who has yet to face MLB hitters. He will cost you a sixth-round draft pick, and there may be better value elsewhere that early.

Aaron Nola had a mixed bag of results for fantasy teams in 2023. He threw 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts, so durability was not an issue. He struck out 202 batters and maintained his excellent BB% (5.7) for a WHIP of 1.15. His ERA, however, was an unseemly 4.46, and he gave up a career-high 1.49 HR/9. Nola's xERA and xFIP suggest improvement in ERA for 2024, and he has started precisely 32 games each of the last three seasons. In the offseason, he signed a seven-year, $172 million contract with the Phillies, a significant deal for a guy who will turn 31 in June. The perception of Nola is that he is an SP1, but his stats suggest grabbing someone to anchor your staff in 2024 and slot him in as an SP2.

In 2023, Freddy Peralta finished sixth in K/9 among qualified starting pitchers who threw 100 or more innings. He struck out 210 batters in only 165 2/3 innings across 30 starts. His ERA was high at 3.86, but his xERA was 3.35, and his xFIP was 3.42. Peralta occasionally gives up hard contact, and his 1.4 HR/9 isn't great, but his 3.89 K/BB ratio was good for the 23rd-best in the majors. He will turn 28 in June, and even though he threw the most innings of his career last year, there isn't much to be concerned about. Slot him in as an SP2 that you can probably grab in the fifth or sixth round.

Max Fried dealt with a couple of injuries in 2023, which limited him to 14 starts and 77 2/3 innings. He made the most of those innings, though, with a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. While fantasy managers shouldn't chase wins, Fried's 8-1 record is notable because of the team he plays for. If he continues with his current pitching profile (Pitching Run-Value of 88, according to Statcast), the wins should come thanks to the prolific Braves offense. Fried does not give up much in the way of hard hits, and his ground ball percentage of 59.2 lands in the 97th percentile. He will be a solid SP1 if you wait until the fifth or sixth round to start your pitching staff.

Blake Snell won the 2023 NL Cy Young Award, but will come with plenty of risk in 2024. As of right now, we don't know where he will be, which is part of the battle, but his 2.25 ERA last year was a mirage. Snell's xERA was 3.77, and xFIP was 3.62. In the positive column, he struck out 234 batters in 180 innings and was one of only 11 qualified starters with an 11 K/9 or higher. If walks drive you crazy, don't even consider the 31-year-old, but if you need strikeouts and plan to have ratio help elsewhere, Snell can be a nice SP2.

Bobby Miller throws hard. He has a fastball velocity in the 98th percentile (98.9 mph), and the speed did not transfer to a high Whiff%. The 24-year-old started 22 games for the Dodgers, and he should have no issue sliding into their 2024 rotation. And it won't be hard to justify anyone wearing a Dodgers uniform this year. His ERA is projected to sit around 4.00, but the win equity and solid pitching organization give him slightly more upside. If you feel the need for speed, he's your guy. But if you feel the need for strikeouts, he doesn't offer a ton. He slots in as an SP3/4.

Jesus Luzardo was on a lot of 2023 sleeper lists, and he lived up to the billing. He struck out 208 batters in 178 2/3 innings with a 3.58 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Heading into his age-26 season, he is stretched out and ready to throw 180+ innings in 2024. Luzardo should stay north of 10 K/9, and even though there is some risk in him being prone to walks and home runs, he is a high-upside starter who can fill an SP3 slot comfortably.

Justin Steele was in the NL Cy Young conversation for much of the 2023 season, finishing fifth when all was said and done. The 28-year-old had an elite BB% (5.0), and batters struggled to barrel up his pitches. He has hovered in the 24% K-rate for each of his three seasons, but last year's 1.17 WHIP is due for some regression in 2024. Steele is a difficult pitcher to assess, but he should serve as a nice SP3 at his current ADP.

Joe Musgrove dealt with an injury-plagued 2023, where he started only 17 games for the underperforming Padres. He pitched 97 1/3 innings and struck out 97 batters with a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The 31-year-old pitcher remains in the 90th percentile in BB% at 5.3, but his K% has decreased in each year since 2020. If he stays healthy, he profiles as a decent SP3 for 2024, but be prepared for an uptick in his ERA.

Dylan Cease had the letdown in 2023 that many fantasy experts predicted. After being the Cy Young Award runner-up in 2022, the 28-year-old returned and threw 177 innings with an ERA of 4.58 and an ugly 1.42 WHIP. Sure, Cease was snakebit by an unsustainably high BABIP (.330) and a terrible defensive squad behind him (27th in fielding runs above average at -64). He is an intriguing bounceback candidate with an xERA of 4.07 and xFIP of 4.08, but fantasy managers must note that none of his metrics suggest the 2022 version is ever coming back. Cease is best as an SP3/4 on fantasy squads.

 

Sonny Gray had a superb year in Minnesota in 2023. He threw 184 innings, striking out 183 batters and maintaining a 2.79 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He also allowed only eight home runs the entire season. Gray now returns to the NL with the Cardinals; Busch Stadium is even better than Target Field when it comes to Park Factors favoring pitchers. While his K% isn't elite, he is a solid contributor to fantasy squads as an SP3 in 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Walker Buehler missed all of the 2023 following Tommy John surgery. He is a question mark heading into 2024. In 2021, he looked like the dominant pitcher everyone expected him to be, only to crater in 2022 with the injury. The argument for drafting Buehler as an SP3 is that he pitches for the Dodgers (stadium + team = good things) and becomes a free agent after the season. Many pitchers experience a "honeymoon" period following TJ surgery, and it could be a savvy move to grab him in the mid-rounds. The knock against him is that he will turn 30 in July, and his track record has been anything but consistent. It is a dice roll that can pay off for the right price.

Eury Perez started 19 games for the Marlins and gave every fantasy manager a glimpse of how incredible he could be. He struck out 108 in 91 1/3 innings with a 3.15 ERA and 1.13. His fastball velocity sits in the 94th percentile at 97.5, and he had a 33.7 Whiff%. Batters had a difficult time with his breaking stuff, but they touched up his four-seamer more than ideal. Expect Perez's ERA to jump a notch into the 3.80 to 4.00 range, but he should continue striking out 10 per nine. Hopefully, the 20-year-old can limit the hard contact and home runs in 2024, but he is definitely in SP2 territory.

 

In his first season in MLB, Kodai Senga struck out 202 batters in 166 1/3 innings. He had an impressive 29.1 K% and 2.98 ERA. However, his xERA was almost an entire run higher (3.87), and his BB% was a disappointing 11.1. Fantasy managers should expect more of the same in 2024. He will strike out around 10 per nine, but walks and home runs will remain problematic. Senga falls right in that early-middle rounds window, where he is much more appealing as long as you have already grabbed your SP1.