2018 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Kershaw had his worst year since 2012, as he struggled mightily to the tune of a 2.31 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, with just a 10.39 K/9 rate. Seriously. That is what a bad year from Kershaw looks like. But although his numbers were elite as usual, it's worth noting that Kershaw once again missed time with an injury and his walk-rate regressed, and if not for an incredible 18 wins in just 27 starts, his season could have been a major disappointment. Kershaw is still the top fantasy pitcher in the game, but his days of being in a tier unto himself may finally be over.

Scherzer just keeps on keepin' on, as he posted his fifth-straight season of at least 200 innings pitched and a strikeout-rate of greater than 10 K/9 in 2017. He also finished with a sub 3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP for the fourth time in his last five seasons. Scherzer set career-bests in strikeout-rate and ERA in 2017, and simply has shown no decline whatsoever over the last several years. He's one of the few true guaranteed aces in the game, and should be drafted no worse than the second pitcher off the board.

Strasburg had the best full season of his career in 2017, going 15-4 with a career-best 2.52 ERA. As usual, he missed time with injury (a nerve impingment in his elbow), though he was utterly dominant after he returned, showing that there are few lingering concerns. In the end, when you draft Strasburg, you can usually pencil in relatively elite numbers across the board, but probably can't bank on more than 175 innings pitched. That makes him still a top-10 fantasy starter, but a tick below the elite.

Syndergaard foolishly bulked up prior to the 2017 season and then tried to pitch through a strain in his arm before tearing his lat muscle. He returned to throw a few innings at the end of the season and, although it was the smallest of sample sizes, both his velocity and the results were peak Syndergaard. Now leaner and with a manager who is essentially a top pitching coach, Syndergaard should be ready to return to form. Though he has battled several nagging injuries, he hadn't missed significant time prior to last season, as he threw at least 190 innings in both 2015 and 2016. If he can stay healthy, he has almost unlimited potential, and should be considered a top-10 starter heading into 2018 drafts.

deGrom was one of the few (only?) bright spots for the Mets in 2017, as he surpassed 200 innings pitched for the first time in his career and set a career-high in strikeout rate. An increased HR/FB rate, as with most pitchers last year, inflated his ERA a bit, but there was no doubt that deGrom pitched like an ace in 2017. He also got better as the season went along, lowing his walk-rate significantly in the second half. If the Mets improve as expected, deGrom could be a dark horse Cy Young candidate and a potential fantasy ace.

If you are going to draft a closer early, of course it ought to be Jansen. He has been the best closer in baseball for years running. With that said, why not wait 100 picks and grab 85% of the production from Archie Bradley or Sean Doolittle?

Darvish may not have gotten quite the payday he was looking for, but fantasy owners can't complain with him landing with the Cubs. Much has been made of Darvish's terrible World Series, but he had a relatively down year before that, finishing with a 3.86 ERA. He did, however, improve significantly after going to the Dodgers, both because of the switch in leagues and because of a lower arm slot that gave him more bite on his breaking ball. Sticking in the National League, Darvish should return to being the low-end ace that he was considered prior to his Tommy John surgery.

Greinke is never going to strike out 270 hitters like some of the other top pitchers in baseball, but with the humidor now in Chase Field, you should move him a good 20 spots up your rankings and expect him to compete for the NL Cy Young again like we saw in 2015.

You can say what you want about Archer's talent, and you may be right seeing that he has 230+ strikeouts in three straight seasons, but he also has never won more than 12 games and is coming off back to back seasons with an ERA north of 4.00 so make of that what you will.

Martinez had his highest ERA since 2014 last year (3.64) and he won just 12 games, but that's about where the bad news ends. The good news is that he set career bests in innings pitched (205), K/9 rate (9.53), BB/9 rate (3.12) and strikeouts (217). In the end, Martinez's somewhat "down" year was largely due to bad luck in the wins department and a fluky low left-on-base percentage of just 74.9%. It's unlikely that he'll take the jump to the upper echelon of fantasy starters until he can get his walk rate a bit lower, but as is, Martinez makes a rock solid starter. Expect improvement on his ERA and for him to hold the gains he has made elsewhere over the last few seasons.

Last season, Ray became one of the premier pitchers in baseball. Granted, he only threw 162 innings, but if he can bump that up to 200 with the new humidor in Phoenix, he may crack the top 5 fantasy arms.

Nola may be the games most underrated pitcher in the public opinion. He is an elite groundball pitcher and whiffs hitters at a rate that suggests he may be primed to jump into the top 10 pitchers in baseball this season.

While Quintana saw his ERA finally rise a full run to where his underlying stats indicated they should be, his K/9 jumped nearly two batters per game. The ERA may stay the same, but at least you are getting 200 Ks now with 12 to 15 wins for the Cubs.

It is rare for a reliever to have such a dominant season (1.78 ERA, 126 Ks in 76 IP) and fall apart the next year outside of an injury. Expect more of the same from the Brewers' star closer in 2018.

Arrieta's slide from his apex in the second half of 2015 continued last season, as he clocked in with his highest ERA (3.53) since 2013. But on the positive side, Arrieta clearly made adjustments in the second half, and looked much more like the old version of himself, improving in both ERA (4.35 in the first half, 2.25 in the second half) and WHIP (1.30 in the first half, 1.09 in the second half). The improvement came largely on his seemingly intentional effort to throw more strikes and strike out fewer hitters, as both his K/9 rate and BB/9 rate dropped significantly in the second half. That's a tradeoff that fantasy owners would likely take going forward, and it would make Arrieta a very solid, though not elite option. Citizens Bank Park won't do him any favors, and if his big jump in HR rate (1.23/9, highest since 2012) continues, he could be in for some trouble. But for now, after a second-half turnaround and with him staying in the National League, Arrieta remains a desirable commodity.

While the Cubs, righty may have a career 2.94 ERA, his underlying numbers and merely mediocre stuff scream for a substantial drop-off this season. He doesn't help much in strikeouts either.

Last year, Lester went from being the most consistent pitcher in baseball not named Kershaw to being a disappointment who might just be over the hill. While we might not see him compete for a Cy Young again, his floor is higher than most in the middle of drafts.

Don't expect the Pirates to offer Rivero 40+ save opportunities this season, but Rivero is a safe investment if you want 25 saves and killer ratios from a mid-round closer.

Wood is an interesting case study because everyone was screaming for regression after his 10-0 start with a 1.67 ERA, .173 BAA and 10.9 K/9 in the first-half. When the regression came (3.89 ERA, .262 BAA and 6.8 K/9), no one seemed to notice because the final numbers were those of an ace. The second half ought to concern you enough that you don't even consider taking him within the first 10 rounds.

Over his last 175 innings, there may not have been a better pitcher in all of baseball and that is not hyperbole. With that said, don't expect much more than 120 innings this year and a dozen wins. Those innings should be dominant though.

Iglesias took another big step forward last season, seeing his K/9 jump 1.4 and both of his fantasy ratios improve. While he may not get many save opportunities, Iglesias is safe this season as a fantasy asset.

You may not have noticed, but Castillo was positively dominant last season in his 90 inning debut. If he were to sustain that production over 200 innings, we'd be talking at a top 10 fantasy baseball pitcher.

Bumgarner missed about three months of the season last year after he injured his shoulder and his ribs in a dirt bike accident. The results were mediocre on his return, as he posted a decent 3.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, but lost several strikeouts over his career pace. The reason was likely a drop in velocity, but it rose back to Bumgarner's standard level by the end of the season, lessening concerns. In the end, given that his injury was a freak accident and that he returned (mostly) to form, there should be few worries with the big lefty heading into 2018.

Many are wondering if Godley is a fluke, but the underlying data backs up his breakout as legitimate. Add a humidor and we may see him kick it up another gear this season.

Davis has been a top 3 closer in baseball over the past four seasons. With that said, moving to Colorado should bump his ERA north of 3.00 and WHIP up above 1.2 so he is only a fringe top-10 fantasy closer this year.

Luke Weaver, was a smashing success to close 2016, this proceeded to begin the year in Triple-A in 2017. Everyone was excited for him to be called back up, but few beyond his own mother perhaps, expected him to finish 6th in xFIP in front of the likes of Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Luis Severino. His 11.0 K/9 were elite, as was virtually every other underlying metric. The Cardinals have a legitimate ace on their hands, and you can too with just an 11th round pick this year.

The most similar pitchers to Cueto according to Baseball Reference are Peavy, Milwood, Beckett, Appier, Drabek and Weaver. How many of them had a single decent season after they turned 31? Zero,. Cueto appears to have hit the same wall in 2017.

Doolittle's problem has never been effectiveness, but rather just injuries. And although last year was ultimately a successful season, Doolittle was limited to just 51 1/3 innings, and has pitched just 104 innings total over the previous three seasons. Still, he is truly an elite pitcher when healthy, and excelled as the Nationals closer last season. His ability to limit walks and hard hit fly balls (his HR/FB rate almost always ranks among the league leaders), as well as his excellent strikeout rate, makes him the perfect option in the ninth inning. On a team that will provide him with plenty of save opportunities, Doolittle makes one of the best fantasy options at relief pitcher.

It is amazing what Gray was able to do at Coors Field last year (3.13 ERA, 4 HR allowed), but we've never seen anyone sustain that type of success over a full season for the Rockies. He may strike out 200 and win 15 games, but don't bank on useful ratios again this season.

Morrow's turn from mediocre starter to elite reliever became complete last year, as he turned in a dominant season for the Dodgers. He became an integral part of the team's success, and even pitched in all seven games in the World Series. He parlayed his season into a three-year deal with the Cubs to be their closer, which instantly made him one of the most coveted relief pitchers in all of fantasy. Assuming the Cubs don't swoop in and sign Greg Holland, Morrow should be a strong source of ratios, strikeouts, and saves, as there's little reason to doubt his ability to pitch well when healthy. But tread lightly - he has not pitched more than 57 innings in any season since 2012, and his checkered injury history suggests more caution is warranted than most relievers.

It's hard to know what to make of Taillon, who missed two full years in the minors because of injuries and then missed a chunk of time last year due to testicular cancer. His recovery and return from the illness was one of the feel-good stories of the year, but it is difficult to know whether his struggles after his return were because of the illness or just poor performance. Taillon led the league in BABIP-against last year (.352) and, not surprisingly, had a FIP about a run lower than his 4.44 ERA. Your best bet is to draft Taillon expecting him to improve on last year's numbers, but keeping below a 4.00 ERA, and not much more than that, should be your baseline expectation.

While it seems clear that Neris is the best reliever in the Phillies bullpen, his role as the closer may not be a lock. He is worth owning regardless, but make sure to keep tabs on the news coming out of camp, as it would effect his draft stock nearly 100 slots.

After a terrific rookie campaign, Maeda took a small step backward last year. It wasn't for lack of efficiency, however, considering he improved all over the board. Rather, it was an innings issue which again is the concern for 2018.

Samardzija had a fine year other than his inflated ERA. He finished the season with the best walk rate (just 3.8%) and strikeout to walk rate (20.4%) of his career, and his second best WHIP (1.14) and strikeout rate (24.2%). The problem for the Shark, as it has been throughout his career, was his home run rate, as his 1.30 HR/9 rate was one of the worst in the league. If he can just correct that number and bring it back to his career mark of 1.05 HR/9, he could be a borderline elite starter. That, combined with his five straight 200-inning seasons, leaves him as a valuable mid-to-late round selection in fantasy drafts.

Anderson lept from being a #4 starting pitcher in the majors to posting a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 141 innings last season. Don't count on a repeat performance, however, as his underlying metrics remained the same season to season, suggesting loads of luck last year.

Vizcaino found his control last season, and turned in a fine year, holding down the closer's role with ease in the latter part of the season. His control, which had been downright awful in 2016, was much improved, as he cut his walk rate from 6.05/9 to a passable 3.30/9. Combined with an above-average strikeout rate, Vizcaino has plenty of tools to be a successful closer. But it is worth noting that in light of his inflated hard contact rate and his luck in strand rate, Vizcaino's FIP (3.72) and xFIP (4.21) were much higher than his ERA (2.83) last season. If his luck regresses, he could lose his grip on the role, especially with A.J. Minter waiting in the wings.

Since being compared to Dwight Gooden as a prospect, Walker has been a bit of a disappointment in fantasy terms. Still, he has been improving with each year including posting a 3.49 in Coors Field lite last season. Now that they have the humidor, we may see him take a leap to being an MLB #2 starting pitcher.

For four consecutive seasons, Melancon was a dynamite closer. After signing the huge contract with San Francisco, however, he had a terrible season. He's got dibs at the save opportunities, but the ratios aren't a guarantee to bounce back.

There may have been no starting pitcher who killed more fantasy teams last year than Gausman in the first-half. In the second, however, he was right in line with the top 15 starting pitchers in baseball and that would also be his upside this season.

Hamels really struggled for the first time in his career in 2017. He failed to reach 200 innings pitched for the first time since 2009, saw his strikeout rate dip to a career low, and had a 4.20 ERA (with a 4.62 FIP and 4.83 xFIP). Father time eventually catches up to everyone not named David Ortiz, and in light of Hamels' decreased velocity, it certainly appears on the surface that it has finally caught up to him. Still, even with his struggles, he had just a 1.20 WHIP, and a crafty veteran like Hamels probably still has tricks up his sleeve. But he's much more of a back-end-of-the-rotation starter, and you probably shouldn't expect that much from him in 2018.

After struggling in the rotation through 34 career starts, Arizona made the decision to move Bradley to the bullpen where he was lights out last season. He posted stellar ratios and struck out nearly 10 hitters per 9 innings. If the Diamondbacks do name him the closer, we would be looking at a top 10 reliever in baseball.

It was once thought that Wacha would compete each year with Matt Harvey to be the NL Cy Young. That clearly isn't the case anymore, but he does seem to be a reliable mediocre pitcher at this point in his career, and it never hurt anyone to add an arm like that at the end of their drafts.

The Braves' veteran struggled last year as his ERA ballooned from 3.21 to 4.49 in just one season, but he has been superb in Spring Training. Teheran won't provide much in the way of strikeouts, but he is a durable pitcher who shouldn't kill your ratios.

Last year as a rookie, the 6'4" righty had some rough stretches which led to a season-long 4.57 ERA, but his peripheral stats suggest much better is on the horizon. The difference between his 10.9 K/9 and 6.9 H/9 was only topped by five starting pitchers: Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Rich Hill and Robbie Ray. Sure, he needs to work on his command and consistency a little, as most youngsters do, but that is mighty impressive company.

For most of his career, Roark offered nothing in the way of strikeouts, but that has changed suddenly. The issue is that his ratios have suffered at the same time. He isn't safe, but there is always a chance you get that 2.83 ERA with 16 wins that we saw in 2016.

To begin Spring Training, Mike Matheny said Gregerson would be the Cardinals closer, but as it stands now, Dominic Leone is looking more and more like the guy. Don't give up on Gregerson altogether, but at this point he isn't worth drafting in standard leagues.

 

The Brewers' new-found ace may not pitch until mid-season, but he is without question worth drafting. When he returns, you might just get a top 20 pitcher in baseball for the rest of the season. Store him on the DL until the time comes then rake in the rewards for your patience.

 

 

Many seem to think Reyes will become the closer when he returns from the DL, but Matheny has made it clear that Reyes belongs in the rotation. He is well worth a DL draft and stash as he may end up becoming the Cardinals ace sooner than later.

The Rangers have not given a conclusive answer as to who their closer will be, but it is seeming more and more likely that Kela, the best man for the job, will be handed the role. If it happens, he would immediately become a top 15 reliever in baseball with even larger upside.

It is hard to believe that a 6'3" lefty who has touched 100 MPH was able to go overlooked as a minor league prospect, but he was somehow barely scratching the top 100 in most lists when he made his debut as a 20-year-old despite carrying a 2.62 ERA and 147 Ks in just 123 innings this season. Luiz Gohara didn't finish the season well, but he is the ultimate late-round lottery ticket for next season.

Mikolas is a total question mark. He started the spring as a disaster, but has rebounded and has many thinking he could be another Lance Lynn type pitcher for the Cardinals this season.

Oh, you actually believed the rumor that Luke Gregerson (4.57 ERA, 13 HR allowed) was going to be the Cardinals closer over Leone? It is only a matter of time before the entire fantasy baseball community catches wind of the fact that Leone is far and away the best reliever in St. Louis. Over the second half, he morphed into a force of nature for the Blue Jays, posting a 2.05 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and a .205 batting average against. This is the cheapest closer you can find right now, and he may just end up top 10 at the position this year.

Davies won't strike out 150 hitters for you, but he should provide ratios that you can live with and is a good bet to win a dozen games in front of that Brewers' lineup/

Ryu only threw 126 innings last year, but they were useful innings for a fantasy team. His career ERA is 3.41 and while he may have had a terrible spring, a full season with that type of ERA is a legitimate possibility.

Hader is a former top prospect for the Brewers who was stuck in the bullpen last year. Now, that may happen again, but even if it does and he doesn't find a way to steal the closer job from Corey Knebel, Hader is dominant enough to be owned in even standard leagues. Over the second half of the season, he was better than Craig Kimbrel, Edwin Diaz and a host of other top closers. This season, you can expect him to strike out near 100 hitters with a great ERA and WHIP. Don't sleep on the idea that he ends up as the Brewers closer if Knebel stumbles, or better yet, gets his crack in the rotation where he just may be a future ace.

Barraclough needs to work on his command so that he can bring the ratios down to a more favorable level for fantasy teams, but he is a good bet to rack up 75+ strikeouts and happens to be second behind one of the shakiest closers in baseball.

Brandon Morrow has more of a locked down closers job than many others, but if he were to falter, Edwards might just be a top 5 closer from that point on. He has elite strikeout stuff and will be a tremendous help with both ERA and WHIP regardless of whether or not he sees save opportunities.

Matz was truly terrible last season, but we know the type of pitcher he could be if he stays healthy and puts it all together. He had a rough spring, but is getting his crack in the rotation so Matz might be worthy of a flier.

 

Newcomb's final numbers weren't all that pretty, but he flashed the makings of a strong fantasy starter. He is a hoss that can pile up the innings and may just reach 200 Ks this season with a decent ERA.

The Cardinals are starting Flaherty in the minors despite a terrific spring from the youngster. It might only be a matter of time before he gets called up and when he does, he should be picked up in all formats.

The Braves and many around the industry seem to think Minter may be the next Craig Kimbrel. We haven't seen enough yet to warrant owning a project reliever, but he is worth keeping an eye on even if he isn't notching saves for another year. He might be able to be a big help in three categories.

 

We will more than likely get something in the neighborhood of the 5.13 ERA Velasquez posted last season, but try to remember that it was just two years ago when he lit the world on fire, striking out 152 batters in 131 innings with manageable ratios.

 

 

Eickhoff has a lat strain and should miss the first month or two. When he returns, we might see the lousy 4.71 ERA that he gave fantasy owners last season, but remember that his career ERA is below 4.00 and he can strikeout quite a few hitters as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We saw Garrett jump out to a hot start to begin his career, but then it all came tumbling down. He finished the season with terrible numbers, but it turns out he was pitching at less than 100% most of the season. Garrett is healthy now, however and his velo has spiked 4 MPH, so don't be shocked if he breaks out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pivetta's second-half looked like a disaster, but his underlying numbers suggest he could be in line for significant improvement. Keep an eye on him in case we start to see hints of that breakout.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stephenson had a terrible start to the season, but closed the year with a strong second-half. He's got some potential so monitor him so you can pick him up before any kind of breakout takes place.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Padres have not committed to putting Strahm in their rotation yet or he would be worthy of a draft pick even in shallow leagues. Either way, he is well worth watching because once the plug him into the rotation he should be owned everywhere. The young lefty has incredible stuff and should be fantasy relevant for years to come.