2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Looking for 18 wins, 220 innings and nearly 300 strikeouts? You can virtually lock it in with Scherzer. Not only that, be he has a 0.975 WHIP over the past six seasons. That is downright unfair. Don't hesitate to grab him late in the first round this year.

deGrom was magical in 2018 and while there is a chance that continues into this season, we have to remember that the two prior seasons, he carried a 3.32 ERA with just 382 Ks and 22 wins. While that makes for a useful pitcher, the risk of him returning to that leaves him below Sale and Scherzer's tier.

Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick.

Thor has elite stuff without a doubt, but the numbers haven't quite made it to the top tier of pitchers. Rather, he has just one season with 170 strikeouts and has yet to win 15 games. You may argue that a Cy Young is right around the corner, but we've been saying that for three years now and it is starting to look like we have another Strasburg on our hands.

After tearing through the minors, Buehler pitcher pretty well for the Dodgers in the first half. Then a flip switched and he proceeded to become one of the top pitchers in baseball over the second half, posting a 2.03 ERA with 92 Ks and just a .165 BA allowed in 80 innings. Draft him accordingly.

There is a top tier of three or four closers, but among them, Diaz is likely the best. He racked up 124 Ks in 73 innings last year, and while you can't bank on 57 saves again, 40 is well within question for a surprisingly good Mets team this year. His ratios will surely be stellar, but even so, with only 70 innings, they won't help you enough to warrant using a fifth or even earlier pick on him or any other closer.

Corbin was an absolute monster last season, striking out 246 batters with a 1.05 WHIP and 3.15 ERA. Granted, those ratios are likely to jump, perhaps even half a run in ERA, but he should also add considerably to his 11 wins from 2018 now that he is in Washington.

There is a lot of appeal in drafting an upside pitcher like Strasburg, but keep in mind that he averages just 145 innings over the last four years. Even with an excellent strikeout rate, that comes to just 174 Ks per season. The ratios will likely be golden again, but know that there is plenty of risk in spending a 5th or 6th round pick on him this year.

Flaherty was absurdly good last season as a rookie and seemed to improve as the year went on, striking out 95 in 76 second half innings. With that said, his walk rate climbed to a dangerous 3.52 per nine innings by seasons end. He has the upside to strike out 240 batters, but there is some risk here as well.

Greinke's age is now 35 and he did have a rough season three years ago, but besides then, he has been phenomenal since 2009. Expect plenty more of the same in 2019 with excellent ratios, about 15 wins and around 200 strikeouts. This makes him a top 20 starting pitcher for 2019 fantasy leagues.

If you look at Taillon's second half, it may seem as though he broke out into an ace, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Rather, he was propped up by a great deal of BABIP and HR/FB ratio luck. Most likely, he will continue to pitch like a good #3 this season for Pittsburgh.

For the first time in a decade, there is quite a bit of risk with drafting Kershaw. He hasn't pitched 180 innings since 2015 and saw his strikeout rate plummet from 10.4 to 8.6 per nine innings. You can bank on top-notch ratios, but because of the innings a low strikeout totals and a potential shoulder injury, Kershaw has fallen into the third-tier of fantasy pitchers this year.

Jansen has been so good for so long that you might automatically assume him to be the top closer once again in 2019, but last year, he was nowhere close to it. Rather, his ERA plummeted to 3.01 with "just" 82 Ks. You can still grab him among the top tier, but you shouldn't even be considering taking him in the first five or six rounds.

Wheeler has had struggles staying on the field but even if we can get 120 innings of the way he pitched to close the season, he would prove well worth a mid-round pick's investment. He may be the breakout ace that no one in the industry seems to be talking about this year.

You may not expect the Pirates to be great, but Vasquez is durable and has no competition for saves. Lock him in for 85 Ks, stellar ratios and enough save opportunities to warrant being selected as one of the top 10 closers in 2019.

 

 

 

Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.

Doolittle only had 25 saves and 60 strikeouts last year, but he had an absurd 0.600 WHIP. That isn't a typo. With a full season, don't be surprised when Doolittle finishes in the elite tier of fantasy closers.

Ray took a big step backward last year in the ratios but still racked up 165 Ks in just over 120 innings pitcher. There is still upside for an ace pitcher here and the floor may be about what we got last year which didn't kill anyone's championship hopes. He makes for a quality mid-round pick.

The Padres aren't expected to compete with the Dodgers or even Rockies for the division, but San Diego plays in enough low scoring close games that their closers tend to rack up the saves. This year should be no different for their new closer, who just so happened to be one of the best setup men in baseball before Brad Hand left the closer job open. Yates should find his way to 80+ Ks to go with amazing ratios once again.

 

 

 

Iglesias has been one of the better closers over the past two seasons with 58 saves and 172 Ks, but the Reds have been suggesting that he might not be the every day closer this year. The Ks and ratios would still be good enough to own even if he didn't get any saves, but this undoubtedly causes a hit in his overall fantasy value.

Knebel was injured and had a rough year, but still tallied up 88 strikeouts in 55 innings with a killer WHIP. Expect the ERA to improve closer to that 1.78 rate from 2017, and with that and a full bill of health should come a bounceback to 30 or even 40 saves.

You may not get a dozen saves out of Hader again, but the 143 strikeouts and lights out ratios are here to stay. Those video game numbers make him a top 10 fantasy relief pitcher, as you won't find anyone more apt to help you in those three big categories.

 

 

 

You may feel comfortable with the fact that Wade Davis is incredible, but beware of Coors. The saves will come, but chances are high that his ratios will lag behind what you are looking for in a closer. At his current ADP, you will almost certainly be able to wait and snag a better option.

 

It was easy to forget how great Robertson is since he only managed 19 saves over the past two seasons. He has racked up 88 Ks per season and excellent ratios over the last 8 years, however. With plenty of save opportunities in store, we could see him return to being a top 10 closer this year.

 

 

Smith doesn't have much competition for saves at this point, but he hasn't exactly been the most durable reliever. More importantly, he will be a valuable trade chip mid-season as a lefty setup man, so take the saves while you can with Smith, but know they might not stick around all year.

 

 

 

Stripling may have faded toward the end of the season, but his start to the season was so absurd that he still managed to finish top five in xFIP among all starting pitchers with at least 120 innings. Stripling is like Mike Clevinger this time last year in that his dominant sample size is large enough to assume he can be a top 30 starting pitcher with a full season worth of work.

Some are under the impression that Miller was signed to close in St. Louis, but the Cardinals have made it clear that Miller will be a multi-inning middle of the game type of beast like we saw in his Cleveland days. Rather, Jordan Hicks or potentially even Carlos Martinez will close. Regardless, Miller should be able to pile up the Ks and keep his ratios down enough to warrant a late-round pick.

 

Bradley isn't a 90 strikeout guy, nor should we expect an ERA south of 2.00, but he is the heavy favorite to get saves in Arizona, which certainly counts for something. Granted, they won't win 80 games, but even 35 saves is plenty to warrant a late-round pick.

Jon Lester had 18 wins with a 3.32 ERA in 2018, so everyone seems to just assume he is still an ace. That couldn't be further from the truth, however. His skill-indicative ERA was 47th out of 57 qualified pitchers and he was a disaster in the second half. Like his former teammate, Jake Arrieta, things can fall apart quickly even for those who were once at the top of the game. He shouldn't be touched until at least the 13th round in a standard sized redraft league this year.

 

 

 

Contrary to popular belief, Hicks is the favorite to land the Cardinals' closer job over Andrew Miller this season. He may not be as dynamite a reliever, but Hicks is excellent in his own respect. If he does get the job, expect loads of save opportunities to go with 70+ Ks and excellent ratios.

Reports were suggesting that Vizcaino was in a closer battle with A.J. Minter, but now that Minter is banged up, it seems as though Vizcaino will open the season as the closer for a playoff contending team. That should make him worthwhile to draft, but that doesn't exactly mean he will hang onto the job for long if he slips up.

 

 

 

 

 

Believe it or not, Reyes should be ready to go out of Spring Training. You may be worried about Adam Wainwright beating him out for the #5 spot in the Cardinals' rotation, but they have made it clear that they want Reyes in the rotation. He has to be one of the favorites to win NL Rookie of the Year as he is polished and absolutely dominant.

Brandon Morrow is technically the Cubs' closer, but it seems as though he will miss at least a month to open the season. That makes Strop the likely replacement and for one of the best teams in baseball. Don't be surprised if Morrow misses longer or even losses the job to Strop while he is on the IL.

 

 

The majority of Dominguez' appeal was ruined when the Phillies signed David Robertson, who will almost certainly be their closer. With that said, Dominguez should be a three-category monster and well worth owning even without the saves.

It sounds as though Morrow is going to miss the start of the season. That could very well turn into multiple months as we've seen with "minor" pitching injuries many times before. It is a dangerous game to draft based on injury optimism, even if the closer does have considerable upside.

Minter was supposed to be in the heat of the competition for saves in Atlanta, and while that may happen down the road, an injury setback for him has handed the job over to Vizcaino. Unless you play in a deeper league, this should make Minter undraftable, but worth keeping an eye on in free agency.

 

The Marlins likely won't win 70 games, but even so, there will be saves to be found on the roster and Steckenrider is the early favorite to get the job done. How long the role stays his is anyone's guess, but saves are saves so add him late if you are desperate.

 

 

Strahm is the ultimate sleeper, as he is a great bet to post killer numbers if he beats out the odds and makes the Padres rotation. He has been a stud in the bullpen when healthy but may end up there once again.

 

 

 

The Mets added the best closer in baseball this off-season so Familia takes a step back, but if anything happens to Diaz, Familia is the clear closer-in-waiting and would be top 20 at the position right away.

With five, yes FIVE, talented starting pitchers ready to make a rookie splash in Atlanta, projection models aren't too sure what to make of Soroka, but he is the most polished and we expect him to come out of Spring Training with a spot in the rotation. Soroka has premier command of his pitches, and while he isn't a big strikeout guy, we could be looking at a Kyle Hendricks like fantasy asset. That is someone you'll want to get your hands on if he emerges as the Braves #5 starter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Smith is the closer for now in San Francisco but he hasn't been all that durable, plus he may be on the trade market before long as a coveted lefty setup man. Don't sleep on Melancon getting saves again within a few months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kelly is a real player, believe it or not. The reason you haven't heard of him is because he has been playing in South Korea the last few years. You might not know it from looking, but his 3.60 ERA and 9.0 K/9 actually made him the most impressive pitcher in the KBO. The reason, of course, is that virtually every game in that league is played in a Coors Field like offensive environment. Kelly doesn't quite have the control of a Miles Mikolas, but he has better strikeout stuff and could be every bit the surprise off the waiver wire in April if he makes the rotation.

Lugo is one of those rare assets who qualifies as both a starting pitcher and reliever. Most likely, he will be used exclusively in the bullpen where he may pile up another 100 innings of stellar ratios.

 

 

Despite finishing top 10 in both strikeouts per nine innings and batting average against, Peralta is somehow not a lock to make the Brewers' rotation. If he pitches well enough in spring training, we've got one of the favorite candidates to break out this season. He'll have to earn his shot first.

 

 

Vasquez is the closer in Pittsburgh for now, but Kela has immense upside if he slips up or is injured so be sure to keep him on waiver wire speed dial.

Richards carried a 4.42 ERA with 4 wins last year and formerly played independent baseball after going undrafted. It helps, however, that he has the best changeup in baseball. Richards' changeup is Trevor Hoffman-esque. It carried a 41.2% whiff rate with a .214 xWOBA. It certainly helped his performance when he adjusted by throwing it 38% of the time instead of 23% of the time at the start of the season. In those closing months, hitters were so focused on his filthy change-up that his slider suddenly became even more deadly than the changeup. With two of the most useful pitches in baseball, Richards could breakout this year in Miami much like Jake Peavy did in in 2004 after a rough start to his career.

 

 

 

 

Erlin may not be a household name and you'll never feel sexy about drafting him, but if you want quality ratios, especially WHIP, he will answer the call late into drafts as your 6th starting pitcher.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It seems as though Pedro Strop will be the closer to open the season and eventually Brandon Morrow will get the job back. There is a chance Edwards slips in as the closer, however, but he has plenty of upside regardless of saves.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With Brandon Morrow out, the Cubs' closer job will likely end up in Strop or Edwards' hands, but keep an eye on Cishek just in case he takes the coveted role for a month or two to start the season.

Hudson has quality stuff and produced for the Redbirds last season, but he is going to have a difficult time beating out both Alex Wainwright and Alex Reyes for the final spot in St. Louis' rotation. If it happens, he will be worth owning, but don't bank on it until we get more info.

 

 

Castillo is out for the first two months, but if the Padres fall behind early and dangle Kirby Yates in trades like they've done with closers in the past, don't be surprised if Castillo takes over as a dominant second-half closer.