2022 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)
Expert Consensus Ranking (42 of 44 Experts) -
|Rank||Player (Team, Position)||Overall||Notes|
|1||Corbin Burnes (MIL - SP)||4||4.0||‐||
Why are you even reading this? If you're a fantasy manager who likes to draft starting pitchers in the first round and Burnes is there, you grab him. If he falls to the second round, you grab him. If he falls to the third, you're probably playing fantasy football, and he's probably a better QB than Carson Wentz, so grab him. Burnes won the Cy Young last year and there's nothing in any of his stat projections that show any reason for concern. He's got overall SP1 capabilities. Don't overthink it.
|2||Max Scherzer (NYM - SP)||8||9.0||+1.0||
Eventually, his arm is just going to fall off, right? He's going to throw his 9 millionth inning, strike a guy out, remove his limb like something out of "Total Recall," put it on the mound and walk away into the sunset. Seems plausible, because there's no way that arm isn't bionic. The 37-year-old signed a three-year deal to return to the NL East and lead the Mets' rotation. He should be a lock for 200 IP and 250+ Ks. And his new home, Citi Field, is one of the most pitching-friendly parks in baseball. Scherzer probably isn't going to keep an ERA below 2.50, but somewhere around 2.70-2.80 will still make managers smile.
|3||Walker Buehler (LAD - SP) IL60||10||8.0||-2.0||
The West Coast bias rears its ugly head again. If the Dodgers' ace pitched in Boston, New York or Chicago, headlines would call him Cy Buehler. If you play in a QS league, Walker is as sure a thing as a traffic jam on the 405. He went six or more innings in all but one of his first 27 starts last year. He'll give you a strikeout an inning, a sub-1.00 WHIP and have you feeling calm, cool and collected as a manager every fifth night. Pitching for a great Dodgers team, Buehler could top 20 wins.
|4||Brandon Woodruff (MIL - SP)||11||10.0||-1.0||
It's going to be awfully hard to score on the Brewers this summer. Woodruff is a Cy Young candidate. His rotation mate Corbin Burnes won the award last year and could again this year. Don't be scared off by Woodruff's miniscule win totals from last season. He only won nine games due to the worst run support in the National League. Had he received the top-15 run support that Burnes had, Woodruff could have easily eclipsed 15 victories. He's projected for a fourth straight season of outstanding K, ERA and WHIP stats. If you can somehow pair Burnes with Woodruff early, you may not need to grab another starting pitcher before the 10th round.
|5||Zack Wheeler (PHI - SP)||16||16.0||‐||
It's not often a player in a major media market puts up a career season, finishes second in the Cy Young voting and ... nobody seems to notice. Well, friends, Mr. Wheeler would like some more of your attention in 2022, albeit with some caution. His 2.78 ERA last season was a career low. It's likely some regression is coming and his ERA will be in the low 3s. He usually strikes out about a batter an inning, but Wheeler punched out 247 in 213 IP last year. Will he be able to equal that pace? The Phillies are counting on him to do just that at the top of their rotation, but you'd be wise to treat him more like a solid All-Star than a Cy Young favorite. If he's your SP2, life is good. If he's your ace, make sure to load up on solid starting pitching in the mid rounds to bolster your staff behind him.
|6||Julio Urias (LAD - SP)||15||14.0||-1.0||
You won't be able to sneak Urias past the rest of your league again after his 20-win campaign in 2021. He's primed to join the ranks of the true aces. The Dodgers will win 100 games, with a top-10 defense. Urias is ready to pitch 200 innings and have a top-10 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers always seem to score in bunches when he's on the hill, so Urias might get 20 wins again. After bringing Urias along slowly, the Dodgers will finally unleash the young star. If he throws 210 innings, Urias will far outperform his fourth-round draft projection.
|7||Aaron Nola (PHI - SP)||17||19.0||+2.0||
Don't overpay for what you hope Nola will be - the 2018 version of the pitcher who looked like he was on a path to superstardom. Nola's name still resonates, but his stats can be easily replicated four or five rounds after his fourth-round ADP. His 2022 ZiPS projection has him finishing 12-7 with a 3.46 ERA. Other systems are projecting his ERA to be closer to 3.75, which basically makes him Frankie Montas. You'd feel foolish drafting Montas 39th, right? Well, if that was your draft slot plan for Nola, think again.
|8||Josh Hader (SD - RP)||22||17.0||-5.0||
Every year, there are arguments about the value of closers. Fantasy managers who consistently win leagues say having one or two elite closers is a season maker. Fantasy managers who say closers are always available on the wire and to never draft one before the 12th round usually spend August and September complaining that they lost the league by a half-dozen points because of a lack of saves and a bloated WHIP. Hader isn't just a closer. His numbers are so spectacular in just one or two innings of work at a time that rostering him is like getting half a season of an ace starter while also getting 35 saves. His Ks can cover for your lower-tier starters who can't reach that baseline K/IP number you want, and his paper-thin WHIP can move the needle. If you're on the wrong end of the snake draft and he's there at the fifth-round/sixth-round turn, grab him and start the closer run.
|9||Sandy Alcantara (MIA - SP)||23||18.0||-5.0||
For three straight years, this talented youngster has cut down on his walk rate and increased his strikeout rate. Those are the kinds of year-over-year rate improvements fantasy managers want to see from their SP2 or SP3. There's no reason to believe Alcantra can't be even better this year, building on his 3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 201 Ks in 205 IP from last season. At 26, he's coming into his prime. If Alcantrara continues to improve, he could easily finish as a top-10 starter.
|10||Freddy Peralta (MIL - SP)||24||25.0||+1.0||
He's not going to surprise anyone anymore. The young Brewers starter shocked everyone last season, posting 195 Ks in just 144.1 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA and a shocking sub-1.00 WHIP. Amazingly, despite those gaudy stats, he'll be the third Brewers starter drafted. Unreal. If he can get any run support, 15 wins isn't out of the question. Expect Peralta's ERA and WHIP to rise some, but the strikeouts are for real. If he's your SP3, you have a VERY good pitching staff. Now go find some bats.
|11||Max Fried (ATL - SP)||28||30.0||+2.0||
There's a scene in the movie "Draft Day" where the Cleveland Browns GM played by Kevin Costner writes down a name on a sticky note before the draft. It's the name of the one guy he can't leave the draft without. I'll be writing Max Fried's name on my sticky note. Pencil him in for 17 wins on a great Braves team, a top-40 overall ranking, about one strikeout per inning, a beautiful WHIP and an ERA right around the 3.00 mark. Not bad for a guy with an ADP around 70.
|12||Logan Webb (SF - SP) IL15||30||32.0||+2.0||
Webb is going too high in drafts for my liking. He altered his pitching style after a horrid start last year, but will that be enough to continue to stymie hitters once they've had time to adjust to him? His hot finish to the 2021 season on a scorching Giants team propelled him higher on draft boards than his stats warrant. Fantasy managers can find a bunch of starting pitchers who'll finish the season within a couple ticks of Webb in ERA, WHIP and Ks and will be available 20-30 spots after Webb's seventh-round ADP.
|13||Joe Musgrove (SD - SP)||31||37.0||+6.0||
If you're the type of manager who loads up on bats early, knowing that there are always pitchers who'll turn in solid numbers available later on - guys who'll give you 25-30 starts and won't have more than a few clunkers - Musgrove is your guy. In San Diego's pitcher's park with a good defense behind him, Musgrove should produce solid strikeout totals, with a mid-3.00s ERA and a low 1.10s WHIP. Draft him. Play him. Sure, you'll forget he's on your team half the time, but enjoy the pretty stats.
|14||Charlie Morton (ATL - SP)||33||35.0||+2.0||
Morton is 38 years old. He's coming back from a broken fibula. And yet, he's a perfect SP3 target. Morton is the Honda Civic in your driveway that just refuses to die. It delivers reliable performance, week in and week out. Excluding the off-kilter 2020 pandemic short season, Morton has given managers a sub-3.40 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP with good strikeout totals and double-digit wins in four straight seasons. The Braves have faith he's got a fifth straight season in him.
|15||Raisel Iglesias (ATL - RP)||35||36.0||+1.0||
The Angels' closer keeps getting better and better. His K rate has risen in each of the last three seasons. His walk rate has shrunk in each of the last four seasons. Iglesias struck out 103 batters in 70 innings last year and walked only 12. He's notched at least 28 saves in each of his last four full seasons going back to 2017, and he's cemented his reputation as one of the best, most reliable closers in the game. If you don't have the stomach for saves speculation and are willing to pay for quality, Iglesias is well worth the price.
|16||Carlos Rodon (SF - SP)||39||39.0||‐||
After years of battling injuries and ineffectiveness, Rodon blossomed last year with a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Everything worked for the lefty, as his fastball (.199 BAA) and slider (.107 BAA) were borderline unhittable, and he ranked in the top four percent of the league in strikeout rate. He dealt with shoulder soreness and fatigue during the second half of the season, but that didn't stop the Giants from giving him a huge two-year deal. Oracle Park isn't quite the pitcher haven it once was, but it's a huge upgrade for Rodon after pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field last year. The injury risk will always be present for Rodon, but he's worth an investment if you make sure to bank on 150 innings or fewer.
|17||Edwin Diaz (NYM - RP)||40||43.0||+3.0||
If you like your closers to deliver saves with a side of anxiety, Diaz is your guy. He gets the job done, but it won't always be pretty. The Mets have tried to overhaul their team this offseason, so Diaz should be in position to save more games in 2022 than in 2021. The flamethrower is an elite strikeout option at the position. When the closer run starts, Diaz is a relatively safe top-10 choice at the position.
|18||Trevor Rogers (MIA - SP) IL15||42||47.0||+5.0||
The 24-year-old is flying up dynasty draft boards, as his numbers project continued growth from a starter who paid off big as a 2021 sleeper selection. But if you're not in a dynasty league, don't overpay. Rogers is unlikely to match his 2.65 ERA from last season, and it's safe to expect some WHIP regression. His impressive strikeout rate is for real and there's a huge runway in front of him. If you think he's bound for a sustained breakout and have faith he can replicate or beat last season, jump on him about 75 to 80 picks in. If he's still there as you close in on pick 100, snatch him up.
|19||Yu Darvish (SD - SP)||41||41.0||‐||
Missed out on some of the big strikeout pitchers early? Nobody on your roster is projected to pass the 250 K mark? Heading into the eighth round and worried? Darvish is your answer. He's going to get swings and misses. He still has an outstanding, varied pitch repertoire. Sure, his ERA won't win you any leagues, but it won't hurt you much, and he'll pair it with a low WHIP. Darvish's issue has always been his propensity to give up the long ball. Playing half his games in San Diego's generous dimensions should limit the damage.
|20||Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP)||52||50.0||-2.0||
Kershaw isn't the same pitcher he was at his peak, but he's still really, really good. His curveball doesn't have quite the same bite and his fastball has fallen off a bit, but his slider is one of the best in baseball. Kershaw really leaned into that pitch last year (he used it 47.6% of the time), so it's no surprise that he dealt with forearm issues at the end of the season. And injuries are now unfortunately a common thing for the veteran, as he's dealt with back, shoulder, and now elbow injuries over the past several years. He's back with the Dodgers on a one-year deal and is reportedly healthy. There's still a ton of room for profit with him, but you shouldn't count on much more than 120 innings.
|21||Chris Bassitt (NYM - SP)||56||56.0||‐||
Bassitt's success feels uncomfortable - he doesn't have a ton of velocity or much of a secondary pitch beyond his sinker. But year in and year out, he offers an ERA and WHIP that help fantasy managers. His 25% strikeout rate last year was a career-best, and his deep arsenal helps to keep hitters off balance. He'll lose out on some park value with the move from Oakland to New York, but chances are he will improve on his meager win totals from the last few years. There's no ceiling ith Bassitt, but there's an extremely high floor, so sticking him in the back-end of your rotation is a winning move.
|22||Kenley Jansen (ATL - RP)||58||45.0||-13.0||
Jansen signed a one-year deal with the Braves and will slide right into the cloer's role. There is a lot of mileage on his arm, but he had a strong rebound season last year, dropping his ERA to a 2.22 and his WHIP to 1.04, all while tallying 38 saves for the Dodgers. After losing velocity for several seasons, Jansen got it back last year, averaging 92.5 MPH with his cutter, which resulted in just a .176 batting average against, his best since 2016. Assuming he can sustain his gains, he should again be a top reliever, and his hefty contract should at least give him a decent leash in the ninth inning. He's plenty capable of being your anchor reliever.
|23||Sean Manaea (SD - SP)||60||62.0||+2.0||
Manaea was traded to the Padres on the eve of the season, and it's a bit of a mixed bag for his value. His win potential certainly improves given the quality of the offense behind him now, but he'll see a downgrade in home park. Putting aside, the trade, Manaea was really inconsistent last year, and had just one month where his ERA was within two runs of the previous month. There were some overall gains, including a fastball that randomly found almost two miles of velocity. But in the end, Manaea just sort of is what he is. He doesn't have the secondary stuff to be a big strikeout pitcher, and his best-case scenario, absent a massively lucky season, is a mid-3.00 ERA with a WHIP that doesn't hurt you. Draft him for the back end of your rotation but do not expect a great leap.
|24||Pablo Lopez (MIA - SP)||62||63.0||+1.0||
Lopez was limited to 102.2 innings last year as he (again) dealt with a shoulder injury. But when he did pitch, he was excellent. A 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate all added plus value to fantasy rosters. Lopez primarily relies on a fastball/changeup combination, and he'll probably need to take the next step with either his curveball or cutter to take the next step. But his current production is plenty good enough, and he's an ideal third starter for your fantasy team.
|25||Blake Snell (SD - SP)||65||54.0||-11.0||
Snell is an every-other-year pitcher. Over his six year career, his ERA has been good in even years (averaging 2.89) and pedestrian in odd years (4.17). Is that scientific? No, of course not, but you're playing a game based on other people playing a game. Let's have some leeway here. Well, friends, it's an even year. So go ahead and make Snell your SP3.
|26||Craig Kimbrel (LAD - RP)||66||69.0||+3.0||
Kimbrel bounced back in a huge way last season, cutting his walk rate to 9.8%, his lowest since 2017. He was vintage Kimbrel, piling up the strikeouts and saves until a mid-season trade to the White Sox where he became the setup man to Liam Hendriks. He was slated to be a late-round pick with Chicago, but with the trade to the Dodgers, he immediately becomes a top-5 closer. Expect 35-plus saves and elite ratios.
|27||Giovanny Gallegos (STL - RP)||70||52.0||-18.0||
Gallegos hasn't been named the closer and both the coaching staff and front office have gone out of their way to avoid annointing him the ninth-inning man. But considering his success the past two years and Alex Reyes's injury, there seems to be little doubt. Gallegos has everything you want in a closer - strong strikeout numbers, good command, and two elite pitches with his fastball and slider. You'll need to drop him below some of the more established closers because of the current uncertainty, but if you bet on him to be the primary closing option for St. Louis, you'll almost certainly be correct.
|28||Jacob deGrom (NYM - SP)||69||34.0||-35.0||
The Mets' ace is a legit superstar ... when he plays. But now deGrom, who was already coming off injuries to his shoulder and UCL, is being shut down until at least the end of April with a scapular injury. If he returns to something close to full health at some point, he'll deliver a sub 2.50 ERA with piles of strikeouts and a miniscule WHIP. But it's probably wishful thinking to project deGrom for more than 100 innings in 2022.
|29||Ian Anderson (ATL - SP) MiLB||74||70.0||-4.0||
Anderson wasn't as dominant last year as he was in his six-start stretch in 2020, but you shouldn't have expected him to be. What he gave fantasy managers was still plenty useful, with a mid-3.00 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He's going to need to continue to develop his curveball more to be able to take the next step in terms of fantasy pitchers, and he might have trouble taking a step forward regardless given how much the NL East offenses have improved. But there's little risk that he'll regress significantly at this stage, so your worst case scenario should be a solid mid-tier starter.
|30||Zac Gallen (ARI - SP)||83||74.0||-9.0||
Gallen took a major step back last year, but it's tough not to blame the injuries. He missed time with forearm, elbow, and hamstring injuries and the quality of nearly every one of his pitches declined. He looked like a prime bounce-back candidate, but he's already behind schedule because of bursitis in his shoulder. If you believe that Gallen's decline last year was due to his injuries and that he won't miss much time this year, then he should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 starter. When he's right, his fastball, changeup, and curveball are all outstanding, and he can pile on the strikeouts with ease. But you'd be foolish not to acknowledge the injury risks, and if you do draft Gallen, make sure you have a deep staff behind him.
|31||Taylor Rogers (MIL - RP)||85||90.0||+5.0||
Rogers should regain the closer's role this year and likely have it all to himself for Minnesota. Other than being a lefty, he's got a pretty typical closer makeup. His strikeout rate sits above 30% most years, his walk rate remains below 5%, and his sinker sits at about 95 MPH. After signing Carlos Correa, the Twins may be more competitive than you think, so don't discount Rogers as a second tier closer who could top 25 or even 30 saves if everything breaks right.
|32||Mike Clevinger (SD - SP)||86||89.0||+3.0||
Clevinger is on track to be ready for Opening Day after missing all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That was Clevinger's second such surgery so there's certainly reason for long-term concern, but for just this year, he's someone to buy. He was a top flight fantasy starter for the last several years before his injury, and has a wipeout slider to go along with his fastball. His control has never been elite and there will probably be a fairly hard innings cap on him coming off of surgery, but on an inning-by-inning basis, he should provide elite production if healthy.
|33||Marcus Stroman (CHC - SP)||88||87.0||-1.0||
Stroman had some of the best surface numbers of his career with a 3.02 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, as a stronger Mets infield defense helped to normalize his BABIP against just a bit. But even though he had the highest strikeout rate of his career, the new splitter he introduced didn't generate enough whiffs to make a difference. He remained an overall negative in the category (7.94/9), and he'll now pitch for a mediocre Cubs team in 2022. Stroman won't hurt you, and drafting a pitcher with little downside can be a plus if you have a deep rotation. But at this point in his career, there's equally little upside, so whether you take the shot on him depends entirely on how the rest of your staff looks.
|34||Mark Melancon (ARI - RP)||89||75.0||-14.0||
If you saw 39 saves coming from Melancon last year, you're a fibber. He emerged from a crowded San Diego bullpen to become one of the most reliable closing options in the game. Yes, he's old for a closer and no, his strikeout numbers won't help you. But he'll be the undisputed closer for the Diamondbacks this year, and job security is more than half the battle. You have to knock a ton of saves off his projections given that he'll be pitching for a poor Arizona team, but 25-30 should be in the cards, and the guy did have a 2.23 ERA last season. His contract should keep him in Arizona for the full year, so grit your teeth and draft him as a fairly reliable option in the bullpen.
|35||Corey Knebel (PHI - SP,RP) IL60||93||82.0||-11.0||
Knebel was labeled as the tentative closer by Joe Girardi early in the spring, and he's done nothing to lose the job since. He rebounded from a terrible 2020 season to put up a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with the Dodgers last year, and his fastball velocity sat at a robust 96.3 mile per hour. He's already throwing harder than that this spring, and combined with his outstanding curveball, his fastball can perform at an elite level. Knebel has closing experience from his days with Milwaukee, so as long as he can avoid injury, there's every reason to expect him to hold the role all year long. He could easily end up as a top-5 closer if everything breaks right.
|36||Jordan Montgomery (STL - SP)||102||102.0||‐||
Montgomery was fine last year (3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), but he didn't take the step forward that many had envisioned. His curveball is an elite pitch, and his changeup isn't far behind, but his sinker (.412 wOBA against) just gets crushed. If he leans further into his changeup and curve, you could see a giant step forward, especially since his whiff rate is already solid and his walk rate is above average. But if not, it's probably going to be yet another mediocre season for him, particularly with the tough lineups he'll face routinely.
|37||Jack Flaherty (STL - SP)||97||72.0||-25.0||
Here's a guy you just can't go wrong with. He has immaculate control, ace-level stuff, a really high floor and an exceptional Cy Young-level ceiling. Flaherty only pitched 78 innings last season due to shoulder and oblique injuries, but he didn't suffer any structural damage in his shoulder - it was just a strain - so that shouldn't have any lingering impact this season. He's otherwise been pretty durable. One thing to consider is that after being limited last year, Flaherty may have a cap of about 140-150 innings.
|38||Anthony DeSclafani (SF - SP) IL60||100||99.0||-1.0||
DeSclafani is back with the Giants after an impressive 2021 season during which he pitched to a 3.17 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. It's not going out on a limb to say that DeSclafani is not going to repeat those numbers this year, however. He's really mostly just a two-pitch pitcher at this point, with an excellent slider and decent fastball, and he doesn't have the strikeout rate to sustain the ratio stats we saw last year. But San Francisco is a good place to pitch, the Giants should boast a strong team again, and DeSclafani's control is good enough so that he should have a decent floor. Just take a point off his 2021 ERA when you consider where to draft him.
|39||Ranger Suarez (PHI - SP,RP)||101||81.0||-20.0||
Suarez was fantastic as both a reliever and a starter last year, compiling a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He was almost equally dominant as a starter and a reliever, though it's worth noting that he had a very soft run of opponents during his 12 starts. More troubling for projecting Suarez is that he had a comically low home run rate (just 0.34/9 innings). Yes, his sinker moves a ton and avoids hard contact, but that's simply not a sustsainable number. He's dealt with visa issues this spring, though looks to be on track for the season, so don't let that concern you much. Instead, just understand that he's due for some major regression, and is likely to pitch closer to a 4.00 ERA this year.
|40||Adam Wainwright (STL - SP)||104||71.0||-33.0||
Wainwright found the fountain of youth last year, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP and totaling 17 wins, his most since 2014. He benefitted greatly from the weak NL Central and an outstanding defense, but the bottom line is that Wainwright was just . . . good. His curveball remained effective, his sinker worked well, and he topped 200 innings pitched. Expecting this again as he enters his age-41 season would be overly optimistic, but if you have a strong staff and just need a filler for the back end of your rotation, then Wainwright is your guy.
|41||Alex Wood (SF - SP) IL15||105||107.0||+2.0||
Wood rebounded from two down years n a row, climbing back to a 3.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His velocity saw a notable jump from his previous full seasons, as his sinker sat nearly two miles per hour more than he had back in 2019. Despite his strong strikeout rate, the fact that we're talking about Wood as having this excellent bounceback season with over a 3.80 ERA tells you all you need to know. Even if you buy that he can stay mostly healthy again, which is very much in question, his ceiling simply isn't high enough for you to draft him as anything but a late-round pick.
|42||Camilo Doval (SF - RP)||112||98.0||-14.0||
Doval was outstanding in his limited innings last year, striking out more than a third of the batters he faced while pitching to a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's a two-pitch pitcher, but that's fine for a reliever so long as at least one of those pitches is elite, which his slider is (.167 BAA, .202 wOBA). He's got the stuff to close full-time, and many fantasy pundits believe he will this year. But Jake McGee remains, as does Tyler Rogers, and it takes a lot for Gabe Kapler to hand the closer reins over to a single pitcher. He'll get some saves at the very least and likely help your ratios, but don't plan on him locking down the role all year without a fight.
|43||David Bednar (PIT - RP)||115||108.0||-7.0||
Bednar tallied the first three saves of his career last season and had stellar numbers overall with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with good strikeout numbers. There was reason to think he'd be the closer heading into 2022, but all signs point to a committee with Chris Stratton. The Pirates should again be one of the weakest teams in baseball, so save chances aren't going to be abundant anyway. Given his team and the current lack of clarity with his situation, don't draft him any higher than as a third reliever.
|44||Noah Syndergaard (PHI - SP)||111||97.0||-14.0||
Syndergaard has pitched two innings since 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and then having setbacks last season, and he'll get a fresh start with the Angels. Fantasy managers know what he brings to the table when he's at his best. A high-90s fastball, and excellent curveball, changeup, and slider, and the ability to dominate any lineup he faces when he's on. There are obvious injury concerns, but considering his low ADP, he has more upside than any pitcher going around him. Take comfort in the fact that he took a one-year deal in an effort to rebuild his value, and accept the discount on someone who could easily be an SP2 or SP3 if he stays healthy.
|45||German Marquez (COL - SP)||114||114.0||‐||
It would be great if Marquez could get out of Colorado, because he's just not going to reach his potential with the Rockies. His strikeout rate has been below one per inning for the last two seasons, his walk rate is trending in the wrong direction, and his win totals will almost certainly not rise beyond mediocrity. The best thing about Marquez is that he will give you innings, as he's basically pitched full seasons for five years straight. If you have a strong rotation otherwise and just need that extra arm, then you can draft Marquez late for the back end of your staff.
|46||Alex Cobb (SF - SP)||117||117.0||‐||
Cobb joins the Giants after a successful one-year stint with the Angels where he put up his best numbers in years. He avoided hard contact well, upped his strikeout rate to a career high, and cut his home run rate to a miniscule level. It's unclear if his 2021 season was just a blip or if his gains are sustainable, but a move to San Francisco can't be a bad thing. If he just repeats last year and avoids injury, he'll be a steal at his ADP.
|47||Huascar Ynoa (ATL - SP) IL60||121||123.0||+2.0||
Ynoa pitched only 101 1/13 innings last season between the majors and the minors, and ended the season with a sore shoulder. There was some doubt about whether he would begin the year in the rotation but he has pitched well and been healthy this spring, so those concerns can likely be put to bed. Ynoa has an elite slider and an outstanding fastball that both miss bats, and both pitches are so good that fantasy managers should feel confident that he can succeed as a starter despite really having just those two pitches. With that said, the Braves will likely be careful with his innings this season, so there's no reason to draft him too early since he probably has a 140-inning cap.
|48||Blake Treinen (LAD - RP) MiLB||116||86.0||-30.0|
|49||Steven Matz (STL - SP)||123||116.0||-7.0||
Matz had a surprisingly effective year despite moving to the AL East and Toronto, pitching 150 2/3 innings with a 3.82 ERA. We know what he is by now in his career - a strikeout rate that won't hurt you, a decent walk rate that isn't enough to keep his WHIP in check, and a ceiling of about 160 innings. Moving to St. Louis is a great thing for him, however, as he'll benefit from the Cardinals' excellent infield defense (Matz has a 47.1% ground ball rate). But he's essentially a replacement level fantasy starter at this point, and entering his age-31 season, we're probably not going to see much growth.
|50||Kyle Hendricks (CHC - SP) IL60||124||120.0||-4.0||
Hendricks won the "most underrated starter" award for five years in a row or so because fantasy managers liked to ignore his excellent numbers due to his low velocity and strikeout rate. But the bill came due last eason, and he had, by far, the worst season of his career. His ERA pushed 5.00, his WHIP was two tenths of a point higher than his career mark, and his already low strikeout rate dipped further. There's hope for a rebound, of course. Hendricks is just 32, his home run rate seemed unsustainably high, and through it all, he still got to 14 wins. But this already feels like fantasy manager missed the opportunity to jump off the Hendricks ship a year too early rather than a year too late. Hendricks needs to have pristine ratios to justify the strikeout rate, and pitching in front of a mediocre defense, it seems highly unlikely he'll get there. There are better places to spend your late-round investment.
|51||Devin Williams (MIL - RP)||126||127.0||+1.0|
|52||Carlos Carrasco (NYM - SP)||128||126.0||-2.0||
Carrasco was limited to just 53 2/3 innings last season as he was delayed due to a hamstring injury. He then dealt with elbow troubles, which ultimately led him to have surgery in the offseason to remove bone spurs in his elbow. Both his splitter and his slider have looked good thus far in the spring, and he claims to be fully healthy, so he's certainly worth an investment given his late ADP. Despite his advancing age, Carrasco still has the potential to be a No. 3 fantasy starter given his career strikeout rate and past success, so he's the exact type of late-round starter fantasy managers should be targeting.
|53||Tony Gonsolin (LAD - SP) IL15||137||132.0||-5.0|
|54||Lucas Sims (CIN - RP) IL60||134||142.0||+8.0||
Sims is going to begin the year on the IL after battling some elbow soreness, but he'll factor in for saves once he's healthy. He has major strikeout stuff with his fastball and slider combination, but his control wanes at times, enough to keep him from becoming a lockdown, guaranteed option in the ninth inning. He is worth drafting late, but do so expecting 15 saves or fewer.
|55||Trevor Bauer (LAD - SP) RST||129||104.0||-25.0|
|56||Jesus Luzardo (MIA - SP,RP)||139||125.0||-14.0|
|57||Josiah Gray (WSH - SP)||143||152.0||+9.0|
|58||Stephen Strasburg (WSH - SP) IL60||145||136.0||-9.0||
Strasburg is coming back from surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, and we've seen that surgery derail promising careers before. He's thrown just 26.2 innings over the last two seasons, and although he's reportedly healthy and feeling good, he probably won't make his debut until May at this point. Despite his elite career numbers, fantasy managers cannot go into 2022 expecting to get anything from Strasburg as a starter. Drafting him for your bench and hoping you get 10 good starts out of him at some point is the safe way to go, but at this point, you should be rooting for Strasburg more from the standpoint of a baseball fan, not a fantasy manager.
|59||Aaron Ashby (MIL - SP,RP)||131||144.0||+13.0|
|60||Tylor Megill (NYM - RP,SP)||133||172.0||+39.0|
|61||Dylan Floro (MIA - RP)||149||133.0||-16.0||
Floro is slated to be the Marlins' closer but he is battling an arm injury right now that could threaten his availability for Opening Day. When healthy, he's an above-average reliever, though not one with a classic closer's outlook. He doesn't throw that hard or have elite command, but he limits hard contact at an elite rate, and that's really the key to his success. Assuming he's ready for the beginning of the season or shortly thereafter, he should be good for at least 15 saves. Anything more is gravy.
|62||Taijuan Walker (NYM - SP)||148||171.0||+23.0|
|63||Zach Eflin (PHI - RP,SP)||157||200.0||+43.0|
|64||Rowan Wick (CHC - RP)||152||156.0||+4.0|
|65||Anthony Bender (MIA - RP) IL60||159||162.0||+3.0|
|66||Art Warren (CIN - RP) IL60||156||193.0||+37.0|
|67||Kyle Finnegan (WSH - RP)||151||185.0||+34.0|
|68||Elieser Hernandez (MIA - RP,SP) MiLB||170||160.0||-10.0|
|69||Robert Suarez (SD - RP)||163||121.0||-42.0|
|70||Andrew Heaney (LAD - SP,RP)||168||148.0||-20.0|
|71||Alex Colome (COL - RP)||176||140.0||-36.0|
|72||Eric Lauer (MIL - SP)||164||149.0||-15.0|
|73||Dinelson Lamet (COL - SP,RP)||174||174.0||‐|
|74||Hunter Greene (CIN - SP)||180||139.0||-41.0|
|75||Patrick Corbin (WSH - SP)||186||154.0||-32.0|
|76||Nick Lodolo (CIN - SP)||182||221.0||+39.0|
|77||Cole Sulser (MIA - RP) MiLB||173||163.0||-10.0|
|78||Tanner Rainey (WSH - RP) IL60||190||222.0||+32.0|
|79||Kyle Gibson (PHI - SP)||201||153.0||-48.0|
|80||Pierce Johnson (SD - RP)||178||238.0||+60.0|
|81||Madison Bumgarner (ARI - SP)||217||184.0||-33.0|
|82||Chris Stratton (STL - RP)||191||226.0||+35.0|
|83||Mitch Keller (PIT - SP)||210||217.0||+7.0|
|84||Trevor May (NYM - RP)||202||282.0||+80.0|
|85||MacKenzie Gore (WSH - SP) IL15||203||224.0||+21.0|
|86||Daniel Hudson (LAD - RP) IL60||221||213.0||-8.0|
|87||Mychal Givens (NYM - RP) IL15||184||324.0||+140.0|
|88||Kyle Muller (ATL - SP) MiLB||188||321.0||+133.0|
|89||Reiver Sanmartin (CIN - RP,SP)||226||269.0||+43.0|
|90||Mike Minor (CIN - SP) IL15||220||249.0||+29.0|
|91||Tyler Rogers (SF - RP)||212||165.0||-47.0|
|92||Collin McHugh (ATL - SP,RP)||230||180.0||-50.0|
|93||Alex Reyes (STL - RP) IL60||241||151.0||-90.0|
|94||David Robertson (PHI - RP)||237||215.0||-22.0|
|95||Roansy Contreras (PIT - SP)||234||233.0||-1.0|
|96||Adbert Alzolay (CHC - SP,RP)||239||178.0||-61.0|
|97||Ian Kennedy (ARI - RP)||232||168.0||-64.0|
|98||Brusdar Graterol (LAD - RP)||192||209.0||+17.0|
|99||A.J. Minter (ATL - RP)||193||230.0||+37.0|
|100||Dakota Hudson (STL - SP)||200||182.0||-18.0|
|101||Dustin May (LAD - SP) IL15||204||204.0||‐|
|102||Daniel Bard (COL - RP)||214||237.0||+23.0|
|103||Jordan Hicks (STL - RP,SP) IL15||197||212.0||+15.0|
|104||Edward Cabrera (MIA - SP) DTD||231||246.0||+15.0|
|105||Sean Doolittle (WSH - RP) IL60||181||242.0||+61.0|
|106||Zach Thompson (PIT - SP,RP)||224||288.0||+64.0|
|107||Nick Martinez (SD - RP,SP)||216||255.0||+39.0|
|108||Adam Ottavino (NYM - RP)||211||253.0||+42.0|
|109||Jose Alvarado (PHI - RP)||215||341.0||+126.0|
|110||Miles Mikolas (STL - SP)||229||219.0||-10.0|
|111||Wade Miley (CHC - SP)||233||210.0||-23.0|
|112||Merrill Kelly (ARI - SP)||249||239.0||-10.0|
|113||Genesis Cabrera (STL - RP) MiLB||225||220.0||-5.0|
|114||David Price (LAD - SP,RP)||257||225.0||-32.0|
|115||Adrian Houser (MIL - SP) IL15||250||218.0||-32.0|
|116||JT Brubaker (PIT - SP) IL15||258||259.0||+1.0|
|117||Seth Lugo (NYM - RP)||244||247.0||+3.0|
|118||Max Meyer (MIA - SP) IL60||259||275.0||+16.0|
|119||Austin Gomber (COL - RP,SP)||262||270.0||+8.0|
|120||Brad Hand (PHI - RP) IL15||238||181.0||-57.0|
|121||Tyler Matzek (ATL - RP)||240||167.0||-73.0|
|122||Kyle Wright (ATL - SP)||266||258.0||-8.0|
|123||Jake Cousins (MIL - RP) MiLB||278||380.0||+102.0|
|124||Alex Vesia (LAD - RP)||272||245.0||-27.0|
|125||Jake Odorizzi (ATL - SP)||255||248.0||-7.0|
|126||Richard Bleier (MIA - RP)||279|
|127||Brad Boxberger (MIL - RP)||247||327.0||+80.0|
|128||Sixto Sanchez (MIA - SP) MiLB||282||205.0||-77.0|
|129||Hansel Robles (LAD - RP) MiLB||248||313.0||+65.0|
|130||Carlos Estevez (COL - RP) IL15||285||190.0||-95.0|
|131||Hunter Strickland (CIN - RP)||389||287.0||-102.0|
|132||Danny Duffy (LAD - SP) IL60||251||301.0||+50.0|
|133||Spencer Strider (ATL - RP,SP) IL15||267||365.0||+98.0|
|134||Tanner Scott (MIA - RP)||252|
|135||Caleb Ferguson (LAD - RP)||253|
|136||Jose Urena (COL - SP,RP)||254|
|137||Seranthony Dominguez (PHI - RP)||275||267.0||-8.0|
|138||Craig Stammen (SD - SP,RP)||290||385.0||+95.0|
|139||Tyler Anderson (LAD - SP)||293||297.0||+4.0|
|140||Joely Rodriguez (NYM - RP)||256|
|141||Luis Cessa (CIN - RP,SP)||277||337.0||+60.0|
|142||Phil Bickford (LAD - RP) IL15||292|
|143||Trevor Rosenthal (MIL - RP) IL15||294||207.0||-87.0|
|144||Luke Jackson (ATL - RP) IL60||295||367.0||+72.0|
|145||Brent Suter (MIL - RP)||300||339.0||+39.0|
|146||Jose Quintana (STL - SP,RP)||313||323.0||+10.0|
|147||Sam Coonrod (PHI - RP) MiLB||260|
|148||Tommy Kahnle (LAD - RP)||303|
|149||Mike Soroka (ATL - SP) MiLB||297||183.0||-114.0|
|150||Connor Brogdon (PHI - RP)||268|
|151||David Peterson (NYM - RP,SP)||309||335.0||+26.0|
|152||Humberto Castellanos (ARI - SP,RP) IL60||270|
|153||Chris Martin (LAD - RP)||310|
|154||Robert Stephenson (PIT - RP)||274||350.0||+76.0|
|155||Steven Okert (MIA - RP) IL15||296|
|156||Caleb Smith (ARI - SP,RP)||331||338.0||+7.0|
|157||Kyle Freeland (COL - SP)||368||279.0||-89.0|
|158||Jarlin Garcia (SF - RP)||306|
|159||Drew Pomeranz (SD - RP) IL60||289||344.0||+55.0|
|160||J.B. Bukauskas (ARI - RP) MiLB||335|
|161||Corbin Martin (ARI - RP,SP) MiLB||287|
|162||Antonio Senzatela (COL - SP) IL15||411||289.0||-122.0|
|163||Paul Fry (ARI - RP) MiLB||291||401.0||+110.0|
|164||Tim Hill (SD - RP)||316|
|165||Drew Smyly (CHC - SP,RP)||349||312.0||-37.0|
|166||Matt Bush (MIL - RP,SP)||333|
|167||Justin Dunn (CIN - SP) IL15||371||334.0||-37.0|
|168||Sean Newcomb (CHC - RP) MiLB||299||303.0||+4.0|
|169||Bailey Falter (PHI - RP,SP)||301||376.0||+75.0|
|170||Kervin Castro (CHC - RP) MiLB||341|
|171||Austin Adams (SD - RP) IL60||346|
|172||Tony Santillan (CIN - SP,RP) IL60||308||361.0||+53.0|
|173||Jesse Chavez (ATL - SP,RP)||311||272.0||-39.0|
|174||Zack Littell (SF - RP) MiLB||312|
|175||J.B. Wendelken (ARI - RP) MiLB||314||394.0||+80.0|
|176||Patrick Murphy (WSH - RP) MiLB||315|
|177||Logan Allen (COL - RP,SP) MiLB||317|
|178||John Brebbia (SF - RP,SP)||352|
|179||Trevor Williams (NYM - SP,RP)||320|
|180||Jay Jackson (ATL - RP) MiLB||328|
|181||Sam Long (SF - SP,RP) IL60||367||332.0||-35.0|
|182||Drew Smith (NYM - RP)||321|
|183||Ryan Helsley (STL - RP)||322|
|184||Sean Reid-Foley (NYM - RP) IL60||323|
|185||Matthew Liberatore (STL - SP) MiLB||372||340.0||-32.0|
|186||Duane Underwood Jr. (PIT - RP)||326|
|187||Brad Wieck (CHC - RP) IL60|
|188||Justin Steele (CHC - SP,RP) IL15||392||349.0||-43.0|
|189||Evan Phillips (LAD - RP)||329|
|190||Tommy Hunter (NYM - RP) IL15||373|
|191||Ryan Weathers (SD - SP,RP) MiLB||332||370.0||+38.0|
|192||Nick Nelson (PHI - RP)||334|
|193||Erick Fedde (WSH - SP)||451||325.0||-126.0|
|194||Kodi Whitley (STL - RP) MiLB||344|
|195||Kirby Yates (ATL - RP) IL15||336||356.0||+20.0|
|196||Drew VerHagen (STL - RP,SP) IL60||337|
|197||Jose Alvarez (SF - RP) IL60||377|
|198||Michael Rucker (CHC - RP)||338|
|199||Chad Kuhl (COL - SP,RP)||461|
|200||Jeff Hoffman (CIN - SP,RP) IL60||342|
|201||Will Harris (WSH - RP) IL60||350|
|202||Steve Cishek (WSH - RP)||345||302.0||-43.0|
|203||Jakob Junis (SF - SP,RP) MiLB||379|
|204||Justin Wilson (CIN - RP) IL60||351|
|205||Dauri Moreta (CIN - RP) MiLB||383|
|206||T.J. McFarland (STL - RP) MiLB||384|
|207||Dillon Peters (PIT - RP,SP) MiLB||419|
|208||Zach Davies (ARI - SP)||476||299.0||-177.0|
|209||Nabil Crismatt (SD - RP) MiLB||385|
|210||Joe Ross (WSH - SP) IL60||386||383.0||-3.0|
|211||Keegan Thompson (CHC - SP,RP)||416|
|212||Juan Minaya (WSH - RP) MiLB||387|
|213||Jandel Gustave (MIL - RP) IL15||388|
|214||Jharel Cotton (SF - RP)||390|
|215||Ryan Sherriff (PHI - RP) MiLB||391|
|216||Alec Mills (CHC - SP,RP) IL60||450||343.0||-107.0|
|217||Austin Brice (PIT - RP) MiLB|
|218||Tyler Gilbert (ARI - SP) IL60||433||369.0||-64.0|
|219||Steven Brault (CHC - RP,SP) IL15||435|
|220||Trevor Gott (MIL - RP)||394|
|221||Manuel Rodriguez (CHC - RP)||395|
|222||Ryan Hendrix (CIN - RP) MiLB||398|
|223||Brandon Kintzler (SD - RP) MiLB||399|
|224||Joe Mantiply (ARI - RP)||400|
|225||Keone Kela (LAD - RP) MiLB|
|226||Jacob Webb (ATL - RP) MiLB|
|227||Ethan Small (MIL - SP) MiLB||403||364.0||-39.0|
|228||Nick Mears (PIT - RP) MiLB||405|
|229||Jordan Yamamoto (NYM - P,SP) MiLB|
|230||Grant Holmes (ATL - RP,SP) MiLB||407|
|231||Victor Gonzalez (LAD - RP) IL60||263.0|
|232||Max Kranick (PIT - SP) IL60||410|
|233||Paolo Espino (WSH - SP,RP)||443||366.0||-77.0|
|234||Bryse Wilson (PIT - SP)||466||375.0||-91.0|
|235||Wil Crowe (PIT - RP,SP) IL15||464||377.0||-87.0|
|236||Cade Cavalli (WSH - SP) IL15||415||298.0||-117.0|
|237||Brad Brach (ATL - RP) MiLB|
|238||Taylor Widener (ARI - SP,RP)||409||405.0||-4.0|
|239||Vladimir Gutierrez (CIN - SP) IL60||474||311.0||-163.0|
|240||Jace Fry (PHI - RP) MiLB|
|241||Packy Naughton (STL - RP,SP) MiLB||414|
|242||Tyler Kinley (COL - RP) IL60||432|
|243||Tyler Beede (PIT - RP,SP) MiLB||417||317.0||-100.0|
|244||Yency Almonte (LAD - RP)||418|
|245||Jake Woodford (STL - SP,RP)||429||402.0||-27.0|
|246||Andres Machado (WSH - RP)||421||294.0||-127.0|
|247||Johan Oviedo (PIT - RP,SP)||423|
|248||Hans Crouse (PHI - SP) IL60||424||407.0||-17.0|
|249||Nick Neidert (MIA - SP) MiLB|
|250||Eric Hanhold (PIT - RP) MiLB||425|
|251||J.C. Mejia (MIL - SP,RP) MiLB|
|252||Ryan Rolison (COL - SP) IL60||434|
|253||Lucas Gilbreath (COL - RP) IL15||438|
|254||Justin Lawrence (COL - RP)||439|
|255||Ryan Feltner (COL - SP)||449|
|256||Jordan Sheffield (COL - RP) MiLB||453|
|257||Josh Rogers (MIA - RP,SP) MiLB||463|
|258||Anibal Sanchez (WSH - SP)||465|
|259||Peter Lambert (COL - SP) MiLB||475|