2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (NL)

Looking for 18 wins, 220 innings and nearly 300 strikeouts? You can virtually lock it in with Scherzer. Not only that, be he has a 0.975 WHIP over the past six seasons. That is downright unfair. Don't hesitate to grab him late in the 1st round this year.

deGrom was magical in 2018 and while there is a chance that continues into this season, we have to remember that the two prior seasons, he carried a 3.32 ERA with just 382 Ks and 22 wins. While that makes for a useful pitcher, the risk of him returning to that leaves him below Sale and Scherzer's tier

Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick

Thor has elite stuff without a doubt, but the numbers haven't quite made it to the top tier of pitchers. Rather, he has just one season with 170 strikeouts and has yet to win 15 games. You may argue that a Cy Young is right around the corner, but we've been saying that for three years now and it is starting to look like we have another Strasburg on our hands

After tearing through the minors, Buehler pitcher pretty well for the Dodgers in the first half. Then a flip switched and he proceeded to become one of the top pitchers in baseball over the second half, posting a 2.03 ERA with 92 Ks and just a .165 BA allowed in 80 innings. Draft him accordingly

The Mets acquired Diaz to serve as their new closer, and he should be one of the first two closers off the board in all fantasy leagues following his dominant 2018 in Seattle.

There is a lot of appeal in drafting an upside pitcher like Strasburg, but keep in mind that he averages just 145 innings over the last four years. Even with an excellent strikeout rate, that comes to just 174 Ks per season. The ratios will likely be golden again, but know that there is plenty of risk in spending a 5th or 6th round pick on him this year

Corbin was an absolute monster last season, striking out 246 batters with a 1.05 WHIP and 3.15 ERA. Granted, those ratios are likely to jump, perhaps even half a run in ERA, but he should also add considerably to his 11 wins from 2018 now that he is in Washington

Flaherty was absurdly good last season as a rookie and seemed to improve as the year went on, striking out 95 in 76 second half innings. With that said, his walk rate climbed to a dangerous 3.52 per nine innings by seasons end. He has the upside to strike out 240 batters, but there is some risk here as well

Greinke's age is now 35 and he did have a rough season three years ago, but besides then, he has been phenomenal since 2009. Expect plenty more of the same in 2019 with excellent ratios, about 15 wins and around 200 strikeouts. This makes him a top 20 starting pitcher for 2019 fantasy leagues

If you look at Taillon's second half, it may seem as though he broke out into an ace, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Rather, he was propped up by a great deal of BABIP and HR/FB ratio luck. Most likely, he will continue to pitch like a good #3 this season for Pittsburgh.

Jansen has been so good for so long that you might automatically assume him to be the top closer once again in 2019, but last year, he was nowhere close to it. Rather, his ERA plummeted to 3.01 with "just" 82 Ks. You can still grab him among the top tier, but you shouldn't even be considering taking him in the first five or six rounds.

For the first time in a decade, there is quite a bit of risk with drafting Kershaw. He hasn't pitched 180 innings since 2015 and saw his strikeout rate plummet from 10.4 to 8.6 per nine innings. You can bank on top-notch ratios, but because of the innings a low strikeout totals and a potential shoulder injury, Kershaw has fallen into the third-tier of fantasy pitchers this year.

Wheeler has had struggles staying on the field but even if we can get 120 innings of the way he pitched to close the season, he would prove well worth a mid-round pick's investment. He may be the breakout ace that no one in the industry seems to be talking about this year.

Vazquez's surface numbers weren't quite as dominant last year as they were in 2017, but his FIP and xFIP were nearly identical, and his overall numbers as the Pirates' closer were still quite good. He should have plenty of job security after signing a four-year contract extension last year and is easily a top-10 fantasy closer this season.

Marquez had a terrific strikeout-to-walk ratio last season, but still finished with an ERA of 3.77, which feels like a best-case scenario for a pitcher who calls Coors Field home. Marquez should provide plenty of innings and strikeouts and his fair share of wins, but he's not likely to be of much help when it comes to ERA and WHIP.

Mikolas had an incredible season in his first year back from pitching in Japan, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while winning 18 games for the Cardinals. His weak strikeout rate is a bit of a detriment in roto leagues with low innings caps, but it isn't too big a deal in points leagues. That said, he's due for a bit of a correction in his BABIP and HRs allowed, which should cause his ERA to rise at least into the mid-3.00s. He can still be a useful fantasy pitcher in most formats, but could be overvalued.

Doolittle is firmly established as the Nationals' closer heading into 2019, and he's proven to be an elite one when healthy. Unfortunately, injuries have been a frequent concern for Doolittle, which helps explain why the Nationals acquired two other relievers with closing experience in Trever Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough.

Bumgarner was one of the best fantasy starters out there until a couple of years ago, but he hasn't been quite the same since his 2017 dirt bike accident. He has remained a help in ERA thanks to his ability to limit base hits, but his strikeout rate has plummeted and last year his walk rate rose as well. Bumgarner's peripherals suggest he is playing with fire, even in a very pitcher-friendly environment in San Francisco. Still just 29 years old, a big bounce back season cannot be completely discounted, but there is no question that Bumgarner is a risk-reward choice on draft day.

Yates took over as the Padres' closer following the Brad Hand trade last July, and the team didn't skip a beat. Yates finished with an impressive 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 12.86 K/9, so he should return as the unquestioned 2019 closer barring a surprise acquisition. Yates' fantasy value also gets a bit of a boost from the Padres signing Manny Machado, as it decreases the likelihood of Yates getting dealt to a contender at the trade deadline.

Ray took a big step backward last year in the ratios but still racked up 165 Ks in just over 120 innings pitcher. There is still upside for an ace pitcher here and the floor may be about what we got last year which didn't kill anyone's championship hopes. He makes for a quality mid-round pick.

Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.

Archer has proven to be a pitcher who consistently posts a higher ERA than his advanced metrics suggest he deserves. At this point, we should no longer be expecting that to suddenly change. Until we see otherwise, expect Archer to post an ERA around 4.00, a WHIP in the 1.20s, and a fairly strong strikeout rate.

Hader registered three fewer strikeouts (143) than Miles Mikolas last season and eight more than Kenley Jansen and Ken Giles combined. Although not Milwaukee's full-time closer, he notched 12 saves and six wins with a 2.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. He led all relievers in strikeout % (46.7) and swinging-strike rate (19.0%). As a result, he's an anomaly who should get drafted above middling closers even in standard five-by-five leagues. Despite his clear dominance, it's awfully tough paying such a steep price for a middle reliever who's no guarantee to vulture as many saves and wins. With a consensus ADP above Sean Doolittle, Kirby Yates, and Jose Leclerc, drafters should instead try to find the next Hader in the final rounds or on the waiver wire. This could all change, however, if injuries to Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel clear a path to saves. (The Brewers have also been linked to Craig Kimbrel.) Hader is a top-five stud in saves-plus-holds format who'd garner that same elite status in all leagues if given the closer's role.

His success defies common convention, but how many times does Hendricks have to prove himself as a sustainable anomaly? He boasts a 3.07 career ERA in 789 innings, only once going over 3.45 (3.95 in 2015). He has made at least 30 starts in three of the last four seasons, and a stellar 5.4% walk rate led to a 1.15 WHIP in 2018. Despite his lacking velocity, The Professor typically records 160-170 strikeouts over a full season of work. He's a boring, but effective SP3 to pair with high-upside strikeout pitchers.

New Reds manager David Bell has indicated that Iglesias is "going to pitch in the most important spots in the game," whether it is the ninth inning or earlier. Bell added that "[a] lot of times it's going to be in that closing role." In actuality, that may not be much of a change from past seasons for Iglesias, who has entered in the eighth inning in 43 of his 129 appearances (33 percent) over the last two seasons. He didn't amass more than 30 saves either year, but still finished as a top-12 reliever in standard 5

Darvish missed most of the 2018 season due to elbow and triceps injuries, and he was clearly not himself for the 40 innings he was able to pitch. Health has been a constant concern for Darvish, but he's been a consistently dominant strikeout pitcher, and last year was the first time in his Major League career that he's had an ERA over 3.90 or WHIP above 1.28. His team context in Chicago remains great, so the chance of a big bounce back season is there if he can just stay off of the DL.

You may feel comfortable with the fact that Wade Davis is incredible, but beware of Coors. The saves will come, but chances are high that his ratios will lag behind what you are looking for in a closer. At his current ADP, you will almost certainly be able to wait and snag a better option.

It's a bit surprising how much the ECR favors Hill over Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Ross Stripling. All are superb options when healthy, but none should be trusted to work any more than 135 innings. So why such a heavy preference for Hill? The unlikely reclamation project turns 39 before starting the season, and he wasn't as elite (3.66 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.57 SIERA) in 2018's 132.2 innings. Drafters must exude patience, as he has struggled out of the gate in each of the last two seasons. In what should come as a surprise to nobody, he's already dealing with a short-term MCL injury that will delay his scheduled Opening Day start. He's a strong SP2 or 3 in the starts he makes, but it wouldn't be shocking to see him run out of steam. Just don't drop him much for this injury; such issues were already expected and factored into his draft cost.

Pivetta's peripherals say that his ERA should have been much better than 4.77 last year, but he was victimized by a high BABIP, low strand rate, and lots and lots of home runs. This is an elite bat misser who has thrown fewer than 300 innings at the Major League level, so there is some breakout potential here. We'll learn this season whether Pivetta is ready to take a step forward or if he's the next in a line of pitchers who don't quite live up to their peripherals.

A relative afterthought in many 2018 drafts, Foltynewicz fastened a 2.85 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 183 frames. Deploying fewer sinkers and more sliders helped unlock his upside, but beware paying full freight for an encore. A substandard 3.34 BB/9 could cause more trouble if a .253 BABIP rises near his .303 career norm. This was a case of not paying for the career year before elbow soreness threatened his wipe out multiple April starts.

Hamels displayed all the signs of a pitcher in decline during his three seasons in Texas, but he rebounded nicely upon joining the Cubs at midseason last year. It's hard to know exactly what version of Hamels we'll get at this point, but being in the National League should help. It's not unreasonable to hope for a sub-4.00 ERA, a WHIP in the low 1.20s, and close to a strikeout per inning in 2019.

Phillies manager Gabe Kapler refused to commit to a single closer in 2018, and that will reportedly happen again in 2019, even after Philadelphia spent $23 million this offseason to bring in Robertson on a two-year contract. Robertson and Seranthony Dominguez are the two logical candidates to share the closer's role, but further late-inning shenanigans simply can't be ruled out from Kapler.

Over his first three seasons with the Dodgers, Maeda has finished as the SP19, SP33, and SP49 in standard 5x5 rotisserie leagues, despite averaging just 145 innings pitched per season. He is a good bet to again produce an ERA around 3.80, WHIP around 1.20, and better than a strikeout per inning. While it would be unwise to expect more than around 130 innings from Maeda this season, given how the Dodgers have handled Maeda and the rest of their pitching staff over the last couple years, he's proven he can be a solid mixed league asset even with a limited workload. He's particularly valuable in shallower leagues (10/12 team leagues with short benches) and leagues with multiple DL spots, since there will be decent fill-ins available for the starts he misses in those formats.

 

Ryu was terrific when healthy last season, posting a 1.97 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 9.73 K/9 across 15 starts. You can never expect more than around 100 innings from Ryu, but they'll be good innings -- think a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 9+ K/9.

Smith doesn't have much competition for saves at this point, but he hasn't exactly been the most durable reliever. More importantly, he will be a valuable trade chip mid-season as a lefty setup man, so take the saves while you can with Smith, but know they might not stick around all year.

 

Drafters would be forgiven for giving up on Gray, who continually fails to transfer his FIP (3.68) to a strong ERA (4.65). Coors can't take the full blame; he posted a 5.34 ERA on the road last season. Demoted during the season, he threw out a triumphant July return (1.66) by yielding 35 runs in his final 58.2 frames. With a four-seamer rocked to a career .326/.401/.512 slash line, Gray might never escape this purgatory, at least not with the Rockies. Then again, at least he's cheap now. Given the elite strikeout stuff, he might be worth a dart throw in shallower leagues. Investors, however, must be willing to pull the cord if his Jekyll and Hyde profile persists.

 

Spring stats often get overblown, but how do you ignore someone throwing 103 mph and collecting eight strikeouts in his first 16 batters faced? Armed with what pitching coach Mike Maddux called "the best fastball I've ever seen," Hicks brandishes elite upside despite posting a middling 3.59 ERA and 7.4 K-BB% in his rookie season. Remember, the Cardinals bumped him up straight from Single-A, so the 22-year-old is still developing. He just may ascend into a top-shelf reliever as soon as this season, and it's possible that dominance would land him save opportunities. If opening 2019 as the Cardinals' closer, Hicks wields league-winning upside.

Despite his career 21.0% strikeout rate, Musgrove offers upside potential as a late-round flier. An 11.5% swinging-strike rate suggests he could fan more batters, especially if he maintains last summer's uptick in slider usage. He also wields excellent control, as shown by issuing just seven walks in 10 second-half starts. His .281 xwOBA matched that of Patrick Corbin, narrowly besting James Paxton and Pirates teammate Jameson Taillon. He has the makings of a sneaky SP3 who will only cost a bench pick.

Let's not forget how awesome Stripling was to start the season. He posted a 2.39 ERA with an MLB-high 11.38 BB/K ratio before the All-Star break. Despite finishing with a 3.02 ERA, he underperformed a .266 xwOBA that finished ninth among all starters. A potential top-25 starter if provided a secure job, he's instead a dicey top-50 choice with the Dodgers likely to give Kenta Maeda the fifth spot after Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. He'll earn some starts eventually, potentially to start the season if Kershaw (shoulder inflammation) and/or Buehler (arm) aren't ready, but Stripling may not significantly exceed last year's 122 innings. The skills make him worth a plunge at the right spot, especially with injuries already beginning to pile up for the NL champs.

One of this spring's trendiest risers, Paddack has turned heads with 20 strikeouts and two walks in 12.2 frames. This type of dominance is nothing new for the 6'4" righty, who registered an absurd 120 strikeouts to eight walks in 90 innings between Single-A and Double-A last season. After signing Manny Machado, the Padres may call up their prized prospect early in the season to prove they mean business. Yet Paddack assumed a limited workload last season after undergoing Tommy John in 2016, so he still may not toss more than 145 major league innings despite making the Opening Day roster. That's a problem to worry about later; the rookie needs to be owned in all leagues.

Jon Lester had 18 wins with a 3.32 ERA in 2018, so everyone seems to just assume he is still an ace. That couldn't be further from the truth, however. His skill-indicative ERA was 47th out of 57 qualified pitchers and he was a disaster in the second half. Like his former teammate, Jake Arrieta, things can fall apart quickly even for those who were once at the top of the game. He shouldn't be touched until at least the 13th round in a standard sized redraft league this year.

Some are under the impression that Miller was signed to close in St. Louis, but the Cardinals have made it clear that Miller will be a multi-inning middle of the game type of beast like we saw in his Cleveland days. Rather, Jordan Hicks or potentially even Carlos Martinez will close. Regardless, Miller should be able to pile up the Ks and keep his ratios down enough to warrant a late-round pick.

Reports were suggesting that Vizcaino was in a closer battle with A.J. Minter, but now that Minter is banged up, it seems as though Vizcaino will open the season as the closer for a playoff contending team. That should make him worthwhile to draft, but that doesn't exactly mean he will hang onto the job for long if he slips up.

 

Wood will open 2019 on the IL with a back injury, but don't forget about him. Even before getting hurt, he was overlooked in drafts despite carrying a career 3.29 ERA and 3.36 FIP and gaining job security with a move from the Dodgers to the Reds. The park change and diminished velocity have caused valid concerns, but the 28-year-old righty should remain a solid No. 4 or 5 starter when healthy.

Brandon Morrow is technically the Cubs' closer, but it seems as though he will miss at least a month to open the season. That makes Strop the likely replacement and for one of the best teams in baseball. Don't be surprised if Morrow misses longer or even losses the job to Strop while he is on the IL.

 

Gausman will begin 2019 on the IL with a minor shoulder injury, but he could return as soon as April 5. He's still a sneaky post-hype sleeper whose strikeout rate dipped to 19.1% despite a career-high 11.3% swinging-strike rate. Once freed from Baltimore, he boasted a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts with the Braves.

 

Bradley looked like the overwhelming favorite to close in the desert, but the situation became considerably cloudier when the Diamondbacks signed Greg Holland in January. Manager Torey Lovullo now expects to have "a nice little competition" for the job. Bradley's ERA ballooned to 3.64 last season, but his xFIP and SIERA suggest he was pretty much the same pitcher as he was in 2017. He just stranded fewer baserunners and surrendered more home runs. Although unlikely to be nearly as dominant as he was in 2017, he should certainly be better than Holland.

Although prone to waning command on a start-to-start basis, Martinez had offered year-to-year consistency for three durable seasons before a shoulder injury limited him to 119.2 innings last season. He allowed three runs in 18.1 innings as a reliever down the stretch, which reportedly had the Cardinals considering a bullpen role even before shutting him down with a shoulder setback. The 27-year-old righty, who owns a career 3.37 ERA and 8.82 K/9, may no longer be available to open 2019 in the rotation. Daring drafters could snag him at an even cheaper price, but the health and usage risks alongside last year's 11.5% walk rate make him far from a lock to rebound.

 

The majority of Dominguez' appeal was ruined when the Phillies signed David Robertson, who will almost certainly be their closer. With that said, Dominguez should be a three-category monster and well worth owning even without the saves.

An intriguing bounce-back selection, Knebel is dealing with a UCL injury that has Brewers manager Craig Counsell concerned. Although one of the game's elite strikeout artists over the last two seasons, late drafters should avoid him in case the worst scenario is confirmed. Josh Hader could see more save opportunities, but the Brewers could still sign Craig Kimbrel or put someone else into the ninth-inning role so their best reliever can keep working in high-leverage spots.

 

Strahm is the ultimate sleeper, as he is a great bet to post killer numbers if he beats out the odds and makes the Padres rotation. He has been a stud in the bullpen when healthy but may end up there once again.

Minter was supposed to be in the heat of the competition for saves in Atlanta, and while that may happen down the road, an injury setback for him has handed the job over to Vizcaino. Unless you play in a deeper league, this should make Minter undraftable, but worth keeping an eye on in free agency.

Reyes threw all of four innings in his return from Tommy John surgery before suffering a shoulder injury that knocked him out for the rest of the 2018 season. He enters 2019 as a total wildcard who isn't likely to be in the Opening Day rotation, but the talent is obvious. He could easily be a huge difference-maker for fantasy owners in the season's second half, if not earlier.

 

 

 

Morrow is working his way back from an elbow injury that should cost him the first month of the season. He was very good last season and will earn $9 million this year, so it's certainly possible he regains the closer job even if Pedro Strop is handling it well in his absence. He's a smart DL stash.

The Marlins likely won't win 70 games, but even so, there will be saves to be found on the roster and Steckenrider is the early favorite to get the job done. How long the role stays his is anyone's guess, but saves are saves so add him late if you are desperate.

 

Despite posting a 4.66 ERA last season and struggling to reach 90 mph in spring, Holland will open 2019 as Arizona's closer. Best-case scenario: He keeps the job and records 30 saves with an ugly ERA like Brad Boxberger last season. He could just as easily lose the job to Archie Bradley or Yoshihisa Hirano in April, so he's best deployed in deeper leagues.

 

 

Despite finishing top 10 in both strikeouts per nine innings and batting average against, Peralta is somehow not a lock to make the Brewers' rotation. If he pitches well enough in spring training, we've got one of the favorite candidates to break out this season. He'll have to earn his shot first.

 

 

 

 

 

Richards carried a 4.42 ERA with 4 wins last year and formerly played independent baseball after going undrafted. It helps, however, that he has the best changeup in baseball. Richards' changeup is Trevor Hoffman-esque. It carried a 41.2% whiff rate with a .214 xWOBA. It certainly helped his performance when he adjusted by throwing it 38% of the time instead of 23% of the time at the start of the season. In those closing months, hitters were so focused on his filthy change-up that his slider suddenly became even more deadly than the changeup. With two of the most useful pitches in baseball, Richards could breakout this year in Miami much like Jake Peavy did in in 2004 after a rough start to his career.

Jeffress could again see save opportunities in Milwaukee this season, but Corey Knebel is the favorite to lead the closer committee. Regardless, Jeffress can help enough in other areas (Ks, ERA, WHIP) to be worth rostering in many formats even if he isn't closing. If you're skeptical, consider this: Josh Hader and Jeffress finished as the third and fourth most-valuable relievers in standard 5

 

 

With five, yes FIVE, talented starting pitchers ready to make a rookie splash in Atlanta, projection models aren't too sure what to make of Soroka, but he is the most polished and we expect him to come out of Spring Training with a spot in the rotation. Soroka has premier command of his pitches, and while he isn't a big strikeout guy, we could be looking at a Kyle Hendricks like fantasy asset. That is someone you'll want to get your hands on if he emerges as the Braves #5 starter.

 

 

 

The Mets added the best closer in baseball this off-season so Familia takes a step back, but if anything happens to Diaz, Familia is the clear closer-in-waiting and would be top 20 at the position right away.

 

 

 

Vasquez is the closer in Pittsburgh for now, but Kela has immense upside if he slips up or is injured so be sure to keep him on waiver wire speed dial.

 

Lugo is one of those rare assets who qualifies as both a starting pitcher and reliever. Most likely, he will be used exclusively in the bullpen where he may pile up another 100 innings of stellar ratios.

 

Will Smith is the closer for now in San Francisco but he hasn't been all that durable, plus he may be on the trade market before long as a coveted lefty setup man. Don't sleep on Melancon getting saves again within a few months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kelly is a real player, believe it or not. The reason you haven't heard of him is because he has been playing in South Korea the last few years. You might not know it from looking, but his 3.60 ERA and 9.0 K/9 actually made him the most impressive pitcher in the KBO. The reason, of course, is that virtually every game in that league is played in a Coors Field like offensive environment. Kelly doesn't quite have the control of a Miles Mikolas, but he has better strikeout stuff and could be every bit the surprise off the waiver wire in April if he makes the rotation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With Brandon Morrow out, the Cubs' closer job will likely end up in Strop or Edwards' hands, but keep an eye on Cishek just in case he takes the coveted role for a month or two to start the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It seems as though Pedro Strop will be the closer to open the season and eventually Brandon Morrow will get the job back. There is a chance Edwards slips in as the closer, however, but he has plenty of upside regardless of saves.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Erlin may not be a household name and you'll never feel sexy about drafting him, but if you want quality ratios, especially WHIP, he will answer the call late into drafts as your 6th starting pitcher.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hudson has quality stuff and produced for the Redbirds last season, but he is going to have a difficult time beating out both Alex Wainwright and Alex Reyes for the final spot in St. Louis' rotation. If it happens, he will be worth owning, but don't bank on it until we get more info.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Castillo is out for the first two months, but if the Padres fall behind early and dangle Kirby Yates in trades like they've done with closers in the past, don't be surprised if Castillo takes over as a dominant second-half closer.