Ahh, the Juan Soto conundrum. Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball. At 23 years old, he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. His raw power is astounding. But he plays for the suddenly terrible and powerless Washington Nationals. A few years removed from the World Series, the team is now a collection of "That guy is still playing?" and "Never heard of him" types. Soto's HR numbers will be huge, but his R and RBI numbers will take a big hit.

Mr. Consistency. Draft Harper somewhere between 6 and 10 in the first round, leave him in the lineup and count your blessings. In one of the quietest MVP campaigns in recent memory, Harper did Harper-like things in 2021, with 35 homers, 101 runs, 84 RBI and 13 stolen bases. With the Phillies adding Nick Castellanos to provide Harper with some lineup protection, a 100 RBI season with 110 runs is probably Harper's floor.

If Betts is healthy, he's an automatic NL MVP candidate. He played through back and hip injuries last year that limited his effectiveness. Reports are that Betts is healthy and ready to resume his spot amongst the game's elite. If he has 2B eligibility in your league, he's even more valuable. If Betts slides to 8, 9, 10 in the first round, snatch him up. If he adds 20 steals to his usually impressive R/HR/RBI tallies, he's going to be in the running for the overall No. 1 player at season's end.

He's destined to end up in Cooperstown, but Trout has been plagued by injuries in what should be the prime of his career. He hasn't played more than 140 games in a season since 2016, and a calf injury last year limited him to just 117 at-bats. If he can stay healthy, he'll hit a bunch of bombs and make major contributions in runs, RBI and batting average. Trout once stole 49 bases, but that was a long time ago, and the SBs might not come back now that he's in his 30s. You're bound to get an injury discount on Trout, and with good reason - the risk of continued health problems is very real. But if you're lucky enough to get 150+ games out of him, you're going to turn a big profit.

This former uber-prospect didn't disappoint in his first full MLB season, delivering the goods in five categories. There's room for more, as Tucker played 140 games and was typically slotted in the bottom half of the Astros' batting order. Tucker's contact rate is on the rise, he makes plenty of hard contact, and his flyball rate is what you're looking for in a power hitter. Tucker will probably never bee among the stolen base leaders, but he swiped 14 bags last year and has 20 SB upside. Tucker might just be scratching the surface of his talents. He figures to go somewhere close to the first-round/second-round turn, but he's destined to be a perennial first-rounder.

In any other year, Acuna, Jr. is an easy top-five pick. The five-category star is a set-it-and-forget-it roster heavyweight. But coming off a gruesome mid-summer ACL tear, he's likely to miss most of April and possibly some of May, and Acuna is unlikely to wreak havoc on the basepaths for the first couple months. He's going to rake once he's healthy, but you might want to pass on Acuna unless you get a significant discount on him.

The young White Sox slugger missed more than three months after straining his hip flexor trying to leg out an infield single but went nuclear upon his return, batting .350 with 12 HRs and 35 RBI over his final 43 games. Robert runs, too, with 15 SBs in 124 career games. There's legitimate 30-30 potential here, and it's not hard to imagine Robert producing a 40 HR season at cozy Guaranteed Rate Field. A ridiculous .394 BABIP fueled last year's .338 batting average, so there's bound to be some major recoil in that category. Health is a concern as well, as Robert experienced leg tightness in the playoffs. There's a lot to like here, but a second-round ADP seems a bit rich for a 24-year-old who has yet to play a full season.

Power is his calling card, and Alvarez didn't disappoint in that department last year, mashing 33 HRs with 104 RBI. He had a healthy .277 batting average in 2021 and has a career mark of .290, so the power doesn't come at the expense of BA. The power peripherals are outstanding - he's in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. There could be a 50 HR season lurking here. Alvarez has just one SB in 233 career games, and he's had surgery on both knees. But if those granddad knees hold up, you're likely to be please with your return on investment.

All rise! His Honor enjoyed a season of reasonably good health in 2021 and posted a career-high .269 BA to go along with 39 HRs, 98 RBI and 89 runs. His 71% contact rate was the best of his career, and naturally his power peripherals were through the roof. No one punishes baseballs quite like Judge. Health is always a concern, and he doesn't run much, but the power skills should age well as this 6-7, 282-pound brute enters his 30s.

Speed kills. Or at least it does outside of the Big Apple. The Mets haven't had a player swipe 30 or more bases in the last seven seasons. Will they let their big free agent acquisition loose on the basepaths? Even if they do, at 34, will Marte still be an elite bag thief? If he's not running, Marte is a fantasy liability relative to his ADP. He's unlikely to pass the 20-dinger threshold, he's only had one season with 90 or more runs in his career, he's unlikely to equal last year's .372 BABIP, and he's part of the Mets' continually anemic offense. Don't overpay. But if he falls, snatch him up.

It would normally make sense to be wary of a late-ish bloomer who has a breakout year at age 28. Hernandez established new career highs in basically every offensive category last year, batting .296, belting 32 HRs, driving in 116 runs, scoring 92 times and doubling his previous season high in stolen bases with 12. But the peripheral numbers back it all up. Statcast absolutely loves Hernandez, even backing up the SB breakout by putting him in the 85th percentile for sprint speed. He'll bat cleanup in a stacked Blue Jays lineup and should get ample opportunities to drive in runs. A full repeat of his 2021 numbers might be a stretch, but Hernandez should be able to come close.

The city of Baltimore hasn't seen such an unexpectedly high HR total since Brady Anderson smacked 50 homers in 1996. Mullins had hit seven HRs in 374 career at-bats entering 2021. He cleared the fence 30 times last year and added 30 stolen bases for good measure. Mullins played the 2020 season with an undiagnosed case of Crohn's disease, which may have prevented us from seeing the "real" Cedric Mullins. Some pullback on the HR total is probably inevitable, but the speed and other plate skills should remain intact. Looks slightly overpriced at a third-round ADP.

This late bloomer has been fantasy gold for the last five years. Merrifield stole 40 bases last season at age 32. Durability is a big plus: Merrifield hasn't missed a game in the last three years. But there are some worrisome signs of slippage. His line drive rate has been steadily dropping over the last few seasons, and he hit only two home runs last season from July 1 on. Merrifield has been a terrific value for years, but it's possible he'll be slightly overpriced in 2022 drafts.

"It's a deep drive to left field by Castellanos" has become baseball's best meme, which overshadows the fact that Castellanos has been one of baseball's most underrated power bats over the last half decade. The 29-year-old picked the perfect year to enter free agency, coming off a 2021 campaign with a .576 SLG% and a .938 OPS. The move to Philadelphia should be a good one, as it gives Castellanos a chance to bat cleanup directly behind Bryce Harper.

Get a season of reasonably good health out of Buxton and you're likely to run a profit, probably a big one. But what are the chances he'll play 150 or more games? In the five non-COVID years that he's been on the Twins' Opening Day roster, Buxton has averaged 81.6 games played and 271.2 at-bats. In 2021, Buxton missed 39 games with a strained hip, then broke his hand after being hit with a pitch in his third game back, causing him to miss another month. When healthy, Buxton will steal a lot of bases and score plenty of runs. He's added power, too, and he batted .306 over 61 games last year. Still only 28, Buxton has upside galore, but the risk level here is enormous.

Quad and knee injuries limited Springer to 78 games in his first season with the Blue Jays, but he mashed when healthy, with 22 HRs, 50 RBI and 59 runs in just 299 at-bats. Springer has consistently posted batting averages in the .260s or higher during his career, and he'll steal a handful of bases for you. Batting leadoff with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Teoscar Hernandez behind him, Springer has a great chance to score 100 or more runs. He'll turn 33 in August, but he seems to be aging gracefully. Springer is a solid investment.

You could do a lot worse than O'Neil as your second outfielder. You're in great shape if somehow your third outfielder. He's a second-tier five-category guy, although O'Neill's .366 BABIP in 2021 suggests that he's probably not going to bat .286 again. The peripherals suggest that O'Neill's power is legit, however. He's not a guy you reach for, but if he starts to fall, grab him. O'Neill is only 26, so it's possible he'll turn in a season that ends up much better than his ADP.

Give the ascending slugger a mulligan for an ill-fated 2021 season. Jimenez ruptured a pectoral tendon in a spring training game and didn't come back until July 26. His surface stats in his 55 games were decent - 10 HRs, 37 RBI a .249 average - but Jimenez didn't live up to the promise he showed in the shortened 2020 season, when he had 14 HRs, 41 RBI and a .296 average. Expect a rebound and substantial power numbers. Speed isn't part of the package - he's played 232 career games and still hasn't stolen a base - but that's the only weakness here. It's only a matter of time before Jimenez gives us a 40 HR season.

He hasn't turned into the superstar we thought he was going to become, but he's still got power and will still knock in runs, and now he'll be doing his mashing at Coors Field. Bryant might not have been worth a top-100 selection if he landed in a bad spot, but going to the Rockies gives him a significant value boost.

The playoff hero of 2020 provided a satisfying encore by being named 2021 AL Rookie of the Year, though there was some slippage. After belting 10 HRs in 20 playoff games two seasons ago, Arozarena hit 20 homers in 141 games last season and struck out 170 times. A modest flyball rate and ordinary Statcast numbers suggest that Arozarena probably won't provide elite power numbers. Last year's 37% hit rate fueled a .274 batting average that may not be sustainable. On the bright side, he had 20 SBs on 30 attempts. There are a multiple paths to value here, but still, Arozarena is a high-profile player likely to be overdrafted.

Martinez got the bad taste of 2020 out of his mouth with a fine 2021 season. After batting .213 and hitting only seven HRs in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Martinez batted .286 last year with 28 HRs, 99 RBI and 92 runs. Martinez is 34, so there's some age-related risk, but his 2021 Statcast numbers and other peripheral stats suggest that his skill set is aging well. He plays in a great hitter's park, and batting behind Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. FantasyPros rankers like Martinez much more than the general public does - an indication that he's probably a value.

Guys with recurring muscle injuries scare me. They're one wrong step away from missing a month. Marte terrifies me. Ever since his 2019 breakout that had all of us wondering if we'd be better off with Marte or Ozzie Albies (lol, what were we thinking?), Marte has had trouble staying healthy. Arizona is likely to give him more rest this season with the goal of keeping him on the field. He'll still help you in average, and he has a little pop in his bat, but he's one of the riskier investments in fantasy baseball.

If he stays relatively healthy, Stanton is probably going to contend for the home run crown. But that's a huge "if," obviously. Stanton enjoyed two relatively healthy seasons in 2018-2019, played 41 combined games in 2019-2020, and managed to play 139 games last year with only one stay on the DL for a quad issue. Statcast numbers show that he's still one of the games top sluggers, and he should have better luck in RBIs and runs than he had last season, when he had 97 and 64, respectively. Stanton doesn't run, but he holds his own in batting average. There's a lot of risk here, particularly with Stanton now well into his 30s, but the lengthy injury history almost guarantees a discount in drafts.

What is zero? The odds that Reynolds stays on the Pittsburgh roster all season. Thanks for playing FantasyPros Jeopardy. I like Reynolds. You should like Reynolds. He has a chance to be a sneaky difference maker, a guy who'll get dealt in July and make a huge difference on a playoff team. In the first half of the season, he'll give you solid numbers in a lineup void of talent. Once he ends up in the No 3 or No. 5 spot in a lineup surrounded by stars, he'll put up top-50 numbers.

The way you regard Yelich depends on what type of fantasy manager you are. Do you like rolling the dice on potential superstars who can't stay upright? Or would you rather take a lesser player and know you'll get 150 games out of him? If you're in the latter category, Yelich is probably on your do-not-draft list. His upside is huge, but the now-30-year-old outfielder dealt with serious back issues last season, and back injuries have a tendency to reoccur.

In 2021, Lowe became a full-time player for the first time in his career and responded with 39 HRs, 99 RBI and 97 runs. He batted only .247 last year and struck out 167 times in 615 plate appearances. Lowe has also struggled against lefties throughout his career. But Lowe's first-half/second-half splits were eye-opening. He was batting .208 at the All-Star break; Lowe batted .292 after the break and dramatically reduced his strikeout rate without sacrificing any power. If the second-half adjustments stick, Lowe might actually be able to improve upon his breakout season.

Sports hernia surgery caused him to miss the 2020 season, but Haniger returned in a big way last year, posting career highs in home runs (39), RBI (100) and runs (110). There are some warning signs here, however. Haniger's strikeout rate has gone through the roof, and his on-base percentage has plummeted. His exit velocities suggest that he won't match last year's HR total. The good news is that Haniger's banner 2021 season hasn't driven his price sky-high. Still, some caution is warranted.

Schwarber was really, really good in 2020. He ranked in the top 10% of the league in barrel rate, average and maximum exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk percentage, and wOBA. He also batted a career-best .266, probably because he swung at far fewer pitches outside the strike zone than he ever had before. He'll now bat near or at the top of a strong Phillies lineup in a park that should only accentuate Schwarber's raw power. If Schwarber can hold the gains he saw last year - being more selective, hitting more line drives, etc. - then he should be in for perhaps his best season to date.

Reyes crushes the ball and has the potential to become one of MLB's elite power hitters. The problem is that he hits the ball on the ground way too often. He had a 46% groundball rate in 2021 and a 36% flyball rate. That's a low flyball rate for a power hitter, and yet it's the highest of Reyes's four-year career. His 64% contact rate last year suggests there's worrisome BA downside here. Reyes doesn't steal bases. His run totals have been unimpressive and don't figure to improve with the bottom of the Cleveland batting order looking so anemic. And Reyes is only DH-eligible in most leagues. Reyes could lead the AL in homers if he makes launch-angle adjustments, but let someone else chase that dream.

Winker's value drops with the move to Seattle, which has one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB. He should still provide a solid batting average, but aspirations of 30 HR and 90 RBI now seem far-fetched. Winker is yet another player who deals with chronic injuries. He's a guy I usually pass on and regret it at least 21 nights of the season, but pat myself on the back the rest of the year.

A fractured wrist has changed the draft calculus on Tatis Jr., who might be out for as long as three months. It's always taken an iron stomach to draft him and deal with the injury risk. When healthy, he's a multi-category box score stuffer. His counting numbers are so orbital, he's basically a seven-category player ... when he's on the field. Now, you simply can't consider taking him within the first seven rounds.

Mountcastle fully arrived in his age-24 season, shaking off a slow start to finish with 33 HR, 89 RBI, 77 runs and a reasonable .255 batting average. His .333 BA in the abbreviated 2020 season was a mirage, but Mountcastle's power is legit, with a .232 ISO in 2021 and home runs on 20% of his flyballs. There's a lot of swing-and-miss to Mountcastle's game, which could make him a BA risk, and he won't steal many bases. But the power profile is enticing, and it's a nice bonus that Mountcastle has dual eligibility as an outfielder and first baseman.

The last thing you want to do is pass on a former MVP who can be had in the middle rounds because his draft stock is plummeting. The second-to-last-thing you want to do is grab a player hoping for a bounce-back season and bang your head on a desk every night as he continues his affair with the Mendoza line. What if last year's crater season was an aberration? Worse, what if it wasn't? Bellinger is still only 26, but he won't have 1B eligibility in most formats, leaving him eligible for OF only. Oh, heck, if he's still there in the ninth or 10th round, take a chance. And find a bottle of Advil.

There's a lot to like here. The biggest draws are speed and multi-position (OF/2B) eligibility. Edman stole 30 bases last year, tying for fourth in MLB. Statcast says he's in the 92nd percentile for sprint speed. There's a little bit of power here, too. Edman hit only 11 HRs last year but clubbed 41 doubles. Edman has a .272 batting average over three seasons, and there could be room for growth there. His contact rate improved to 85% last year, and he sprays hits to both sides of the diamond. Edman doesn't take many walks, but that's a minor nit to pick.

On the one hand, Meadows largely bounced back from the horror story that was the abbreviated 2020 season. His strikeout rate normalized, his power returned, and his playing time stabilized. The glaring exception was that he could not correct his sudden struggles against lefties. In 2019, Meadows slashed .275/.316/.521 against southpaws. Last year, he slashed just .198/.270/.293 against them. Even if Meadows's overall numbers are passable, it seems unlikely that a team like the Rays are going to let a player who is merely an average defender continue to keep an everyday job when he's virtually useless against left-handed throwers. That would still leave Meadows on the strong side of a platoon, but if he does begin to sit more regularly, his counting stats will take a hit, and fantasy managers should be aware of that before they select him in their drafts.

Walsh was outstanding in his rookie year, blasting 29 home runs and batting .277. His expected batting average (.257) and slugging percentage (.436) lagged significantly behind his actual numbers, but his 114.8 MPH maximum exit velocity was in the top six percent of MLB and suggests his power is real. Walsh couldn't hit a lick against lefties last year, as he batted just .170 against them with a .565 OPS. But, even if he loses time against them, his success against righties should be more than enough to keep him relevant. Buy him as a 30-homer bat but take at least 10 to 20 points off his batting average from last year.

Grisham was . . . fine last year. His 15 homers and 13 steals contributed, particularly given that he missed time with injury. But there just wasn't much to get excited about. There's probably more to be had in the stolen base department, as Grisham ranks in the 91st percentile in sprint speed. And he should bat atop the lineup this year with Fernando Tatis set to miss time. But your best-case scenario is a 20-15 line with a batting average that hurts. That's a startable player in fantasy, but not one you should reach for in drafts.

Gurriel cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 18.9%, but that's pretty much where the good news ends. His quality of contact dropped significantly (at least in some part due to a knee injury he played through), resulting in a sharp downturn in both his home runs and slugging percentage. Playing for a ridiculously strong Toronto offense will keep his counting stats relatively afloat, and he may bat higher in the order with Marcus Semien in Texas now. And he's entering his age-28 season so perhaps there's a power bump coming. But Gurriel looks much more like a player who you draft because he won't hurt you, not because he'll help you a ton.

Bell had a horrid .464 OPS in April, likely because his timing was off after missing time because of a COVID-19 diagnosis. But once he found his footing, he was everything that Nationals hoped he would be. He batted .277 with an .887 OPS in the second half, and even played plenty of outfield so Washington could keep his bat in the lineup even with Ryan Zimmerman playing well. His walk percentage and strikeout rate largely returned to their pre-2020 levels, and he got better and better as the season went along. With Zimmerman now retired and the DH in the National League, Bell's bat should remain in the lineup nearly every day, and the presence of Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz should offer him plenty of RBI opportunities. He's not a fantasy superstar, but he's a capable starter at first base for your fantasy team.

It should tell you all you need to know about Gallo that he hit 38 home runs and scored 90 runs last season and baseball fans and fantasy players view his year as a disaster. Gallo basically did what he always did - he struck out a ton (34.6%), walked more than anyone not named Juan Soto (18%) and left the yard often. His sub-.200 batting average is just basically what Gallo is going to bring to the table unless he changes his approach or gets lucky, though the fact that he hit ground balls at an elevated clip didn't help much. He'll still be batting in the middle of a strong Yankees lineup, so if you can deal with the batting average hit, draft him for the homers and runs scored production.

Garcia had an outstanding year with Milwaukee, hitting 29 home runs and driving in 86 in just 135 games. As usual, he showed elite maximum exit velocity, continuing his run of ranking in the top seven percent of MLB in that category since it began being tracked. He signed a four-year deal with Miami and, given the park dimensions and lack of lineup protection, that's obviously not the best place for him to end up. But the bottom line is that a 25-10 season is very much in reach, and he's a fine later-round selection who can fill in as a fourth outfielder.

Renfroe has always had power but put it all together last year for Boston and became one of their most reliable and dependable bats.He cut his strikeout rate to just 22.7% and although he was still much better against lefties, he made major gains against righties such that he went far beyond potentially being placed in a platoon situation. Moving to the Brewers can only help his power, so bank on 30 home runs with helpful counting stats everywhere but steals.

Taylor had an excellent season, hitting 20 homers and stealing 13 bases while playing all over the diamond as usual. The Dodgers rewarded him with a four-year, $60 million deal, which pretty much guarantees that he'll find his way into the lineup nearly every day. He won't wow you in any category but given his position flexibility and placement in the best lineup in baseball, Taylor is an ideal player for any fantasy team who should offer similar numbers to last year.

Verdugo is a reliable option for batting average, as he's batted at least .289 in three straight seasons. He doesn't have a ton of pop or speed, though he'll at least chip in with home runs and steals, and because he'll bat near the top of the Red Sox lineup, should be an asset in runs scored. Think of a poor man's version of Michael Brantley in his prime and that's what Verdugo will give you, and that's plenty valuable for fantasy.

Carlson rebounded from a disastrous 2020 season to put up a respectable .266/.343/.437 line with 18 home runs last year. But the dreams of fantasy superstardom after his 2019 minor-league season (26 homers, 20 steals) have been put on hold, as he seems to have little interest in stealing bases in the majors (three total in two seasons), and his hard-hit rate was in the bottom nine percent of the league last year. His numbers and underlying metrics suggest that he's a slightly above-average MLB player, though it's worth remembering that he's just 23 years old and there's certainly potential for more. Drafting Carlson as a fourth outfielder with upside for more is the right approach, as he should bring a fairly solid floor with potential for a high ceiling if everything comes together.

Kelenic's season was shaping up to be an all-time disaster for a prospect, but a fairly strong final month, during which he hit seven homers and slashed .248/.331/.524, salvaged things a bit. He still batted just .180 on the year and struck out 28.1% of the time, but there's reason to believe he can put his year in the rear view mirror and start fresh. Kelenic has an advanced approach, and could pretty easily put up a 20-20 season without batting an eye if everything breaks right. With a stronger Mariners lineup batting behind him, Kelenic should be someone to target in fantasy drafts given his potential and strong close to the 2021 season.

Ozuna missed the majority of the season after he was arrested on charges of aggravated assault by strangulation and battery last year. He's 31 years old now and his hard hit rate and average exit velocity declined sharply last year, along with his home run percentage and batting average. It's not clear if his numbers last year were just a blip or the start of a steep decline, but you shouldn't be relying on him as a starter for now.

Soler's 48-homer season isn't ever going to repeat itself, but he doesn't need it to in order to provide fantasy value. He popped 27 homers last year and although his batting average has been in the .220s each of the last two years, his expected batting average has been closer to the high .240s. Now with the Marlins, he'll need every bit of hard contact he can get, but he should benefit from the NL adopting the DH. Soler isn't and won't be a star, but he's a useful fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Suzuki signed with the Cubs this offseason, and will come over from the Hiroshima Toyo Carp after dominating last year in Japan. He hit 38 home runs and had a 1.073 OPS, and he has a career .315 batting average and .985 OPS in the NPS. Projecting players coming over from Japan is fraught with difficulties, but the general consensus is that Suzuki has 30-homer power with the ability to hit for average and steal double-digit bases. Whether that manifests itself in his first year remains to be seen, but there are few players with similar upside going at his ADP. Draft him as a fourth outfielder, but hope he plays like a second or third option.

Rosario re-signed with the Braves after coming over mid-season last year from Clevelan. He's still a productive MLB player but it's unclear if he can recapture the form that made him one of the more underrated assets in fantasy. He's no longer out-performing his expected batting average and he's never hit the ball particularly hard, so the 32 home runs we saw back in 2019 are probably never coming back. But he'll likely approach a 20-10 season in Atlanta and stick in the lineup every day with the addition of the DH in the National League. You could do worse as your last outfielder in a mixed league.

Varsho has bounced around from catcher to the outfield so far in his major league career, but he is penned in as the everyday center fielder in 2022. His bat is solid, not necessarily elite, and if he was only outfield eligible, he'd probably be a fifth outfielder or high-end bench piece. But his projected 15-10 line plays incredibly well at catcher, where he retains eligibility, and he'll likely bat in the middle of the lineup which should help buoy his counting stats, even in Arizona's lineup. He's a rock solid starting catcher for fantasy purposes, but don't play to play him in the outfield.

Garcia came out of absolutely nowhere last season to become one of just five players to hit at least 31 home runs and steal at least 16 bases. His success largely came early in the season, as he blasted 11 home runs in May with a .312 batting average before, as most fantasy managers expected, pitchers adjusted. The adjustment hit Garcia hard, as he slashed just .211/.256/.370 in the second half, though he stole seven bases over the final month of the season to cushion the blow. The issue for Garcia is the same that plagues most largely unknown hitters who put up huge hot streaks - he lacks plate discipline. His strikeout rate (31.2%) and walk rate (5.1%) were both in the bottom six percent of MLB, and both were due largely to the fact that he simply swings too much at pitches outside of the zone (39.7 O-Swing%, ninth-worst in the league). The Rangers have a much-improved lineup and perhaps Garcia will improve in his second year, but unless he drastically changes his approach, his numbers are going to have a hard cap on them.

Benintendi was the classic "needs a change of scenery" player and got relatively back on track with the Royals. He looked almost identical to the disappointing but absolutely usable version of himself that he showed in 2019, and his underlying rates were nearly identical. He did walk at a career-worst rate but he also got his strikeout rate down under control, and had he avoided injury, he surely would have put up a 20-10 season. There's every reason to expct him to be able to do that again, but expect his other counting stats to remain mediocre with Kansas City's lineup.

Kirilloff had a poor 2021 season, ultimately succumbing to wrist surgery to fix an injury that has reportedly bothered him off and on for a few years at this point. Long-term, there's plenty of reason for optimism given his pedigree and strong minor league numbers. But for this year, he's more of a middling outfield filler. His quality of contact and home park aren't favorable enough to lead to a major outburst in power, and his surrounding lineup isn't strong enough to offer a favorable environment for counting stats. Kirilloff probably won't hurt you in batting average and he'll hit about 20 home runs, but players like that are a dime a dozen in redraft leagues. Take him late as a filler, but still view him as a target in keeper and dynasty formats.

Baddoo wasn't expected to contribute much in the majors last year, but he came on strong and ultimately played in 124 games, hitting 13 home runs and stealing 18 bases while batting .259. The speed is legtimate, as he ranked in the 91st percentile in sprint speed last season, but he's going to significantly improve on his .523 OPS against lefties if he's going to find success this year. Baddoo should begin the year batting leadoff in front of an improved Tigers lineup, so if he can just maintain his performance against righties and improve against lefties somewhat, a 20-20 season coul be in the cards. If not, then he'll likely bat in the lower third of the order and lose much of his value.

Grossman came out of nowhere to put up a 20-20 line in his age-31 season. And by "out of nowhere," I mean that his previous season-high in homers was 11 and his previous high in steals was nine. Everything suggests that Grossman sold out a bit for power, as he greatly increased both his launch angle and fly ball rate (46.2%). If he does that again, he can probably approach 20 homers for a second straight season, but considering his mediocre sprint speed (68th percentile), it would be surprising if he reached 20 steals. Take about 5-7 off your projections for both numbers and you probably won't be disappointed.

 

There was a lot of good with Happ's 2021 season. He reached a career-high in home runs, runs scored, and stolen bases, and he kept his walk rate in the double digits. But he also batted a career worst .226 and ranked in the bottom nine percent of the league with a 29.2% strikeout rate. Happ should be a starter for the Cubs, of course, but with the addition of Seiya Suzuki and with Clint Frazier on board, Chicago may be a little less patient with his slumps. Make sure you're taken care of in batting average and have depth if you draft Happ, because with his production come some pretty glaring risks.

Duvall had the quietest 38-homer season in recent memory, which happens when a bulk of it takes place in Miami. He also led the National League in RBI and was one of the leaders in max exit velocity. But he also batted just .228 and struck out 31.4% of the time. Duvall is now 33 years old so expecting a rebound in batting average or strikeout rate is probably wishful thinking. But if it's power you crave, then Duvall should have you covered, particularly with playing his home game in Atlanta's hitter-friendly Truist Park.

Hays finally made good on his prospect pedigree, hitting 22 home runs and topping 140 combined runs and RBI. It wasn't perfect - he walked only 5.3% of the time and his hard-hit rate and exit velocity were mediocre. But he had a strong close to th season with 12 home runs and 35 RBI over the final two months of the season. Just 26 years old, there's plenty of room for growth, though the new dimensions in Camden Yards may keep his power in check a bit. Buy him at his 2021 numbers and understand there's plenty of room for growth.

Adell has massive power but hit just four home runs in 35 games in the majors last year. But his strikeout rate was a very manageable 22.9% after it was an incredibly bloated 41.7% in 2020, and that generally bodes well for a prospect. He worked on a swing change this offseason and looks much, much more comfortable in the spring. As fantasy managers know, prospect growth is not linear, so Adell's mediocre performance in the majors to this point shouldn't give you much pause. You'll have to pay more for him than his numbers suggest you should, be he's got the type of upside that should make the price worth it.

Pham recently signed with the Reds, and even though the team has shipped off most of its lineup, it's not a bad fit. Pham's batting average has suffered over the last two seasons, but his expected batting average (.266, .258) suggests that he's been more unlucky than anything. And although his power numbers have declined, a move to Great American Ball Park should likely add a few home runs to his ledger this year. Pham still walks a ton and is a lock for double-digit steals, and he's the type of player who fantasy managers like to ignore each year. Don't worry as much about the lack of lineup protection, and instead buy the high floor and relative lack of competition for his job.

Straw is your quintessential no-power, all-speed player. He hit four home runs last year and that's not going to be anomaly given his incredibly low hard-hit rate. But he stole 30 bases and ranked in the 96th percentile in sprint speed. He'll lead off for the Guardians this season and given their likely futility on offense, it's reasonable to expect Straw to try to swipe a bag at every chance he gets. If you're covered in power, he's a fine pick, but don't have any dreams of a home run surge now or anytime in the future.

Blackmon is in obvious decline as he enters his age-35 season. At one point, he was a lock for at least 29 home runs, well over 100 runs, and double-digit steals with a .300 batting average. Now, you're hoping for .280-15-80, with any steals he throws in as gravy. There's no huge analysis that needs to be done here - Father Time is undefeated, and the old Blackmon isn't coming back. The depth of the Rockies lineup continues to take a hit, even with the addition of Kris Bryant, and at this point, you're drafting Blackmon hoping for one more mediocre season out of him. There are better places to invest your draft capital.

Brantley is one of the most consistent players in all of fantasy baseball, and so long as you're looking for what he gives you, there's nothing wrong with that. He's a lock to bat .300 and he'll generally offer decent runs and RBI totals batting in a strong Houston lineup. But the power that we saw in 2019 was an aberration at this point, and unless MLB uses juiced balls again, Brantley is likely to end up in the 10-12 home run range. At an advancing age, there's always reason to be concerned that he'll fall off a cliff, but nothing in his profile suggests that is imminent. Draft him for batting average but make sure you can make up the speed and power elsewhere.

Pollock reminded everyone last year why he was once such a desirable fantasy commodity. In just 117 games, he popped 21 home runs and added nine steals, all while batting .297. Pollock's issue has never been about his talent, and his career might be viewed differently if he could have stayed healthy. But his 117 games played last year represented his most since 2015, and given that he's already dealing with general soreness in the spring, it's highly unlikely that he'll surpass that number in his age-34 season. His skills have not declined much, and his 19% strikeout rate last year represented his best since 2017. So long as you factor in plenty of missed time, Pollock should again offer you fairly elite production on a game-by-game basis.

Laureano has 28 games remaining on his suspension for PEDs, and given the dearth of talent on the A's, most fantasy managers are likely not going to target him during their drafts. But he's one of just a handful of players who are capable of putting up a 25-15 line over the course of a full season, and his eight steals over the first month last year showed how he could likely steal 25 if he really wanted to. There's not a ton to love otherwise about his offensive game, and his batting average probably won't help very much. But if you can deal with his absence for the first month of the season, he'll offer a decent power-speed combo, albeit one without many other helpful stats.

It's not often that an offensive player can be traded out of Toronto and get an upgrade in his value, but that's exactly what Grichuk got with his move to Colorado. We know what Grichuk is by now - he's gonna make elite contact with the ball a ton, but he's not at all selective, so he holds himself back by swinging at bad pitches. There's a ton of power with the veteran, and Coors Field should help boost his batting average from his career .245 mark. He's slated to bat sixth right now, meaning there should be RBI opportunity aplenty, so he makes a fine fifth outfielder for your fantasy team, with the upside to be more.

It was a tale of two halves for Rosario, as he slashed .259/.306/.367 in the first half and .309/.339/.457 in the second half. The end result was a good one, as Rosario wound up being a contributor in four of the five rotisserie categories, and is trending up heading into 2022. The biggest issue at this point is the extreme weakness of the Guardians' lineup, which is projected to be one of the worst in baseball. That's going to significantly cut into Rosario's counting stats and depress his value. But the options to help your batting average and generally contribute everywhere are few and far between, so Rosario should be no worse than a high-end bench player for your team.

Hernandez had an extremely solid year batting atop the Red Sox lineup, hitting 20 home runs and tallying 84 runs scored. Very little about his underlying batted ball data and overall metrics were different - he just stayed healthy and became an everyday player. His batting average won't help you and he offers nothing in the stolen base category. But he should be a major asset in runs scored and contribute in homers and RBI. With the addition of Trevor Story, he'll likely be the everyday center fielder, but he'll retain his second base eligibility from last year, further strengthening his value. Hernandez won't win you your league, but he's the type of player you can leave in your lineup all year long.

Canha had an interesting 2021 season, as he saw his average continue to trend down but randomly stole 12 bases with Oakland. Now with the Mets, he'll likely bat toward the bottom of the order, so chances are he won't come close to the 93 runs he scored last year. If you're in an OBP league, Canha's value increases greatly, as his walk rate hasn't been lower than 12.3% in any of the last three seasons. But in a standard 5x5 league, he's mostly just a filler option.

Bader has always been known as a defensive outfielder, but his offensive game picked up last year. He cut his strikeout rate six points from his career mark and set a career best in home runs (16) and RBI (50), Bader has never had more than 427 plate appearances in a season, but he could easily steal 20 bases if stays healthy, as he ranks in the 97th percentile in sprint speed. Consider him akin to Tommy Pham around his prime in a best-case scenario, and given his ADP, he's a solid investment.

It appears as of now that Conforto guessed wrong when he turned down a long-term offer from the Mets and the qualifying offer, as he finds himself in an awkward limbo without a team well into the spring. There's obvious potential with Conforto, who hit at least 27 home runs for three straight seasons, gets on base at an above-average clip, and is just entering his age-29 season. But as we saw with Kris Bryant, it's hard to properly assess a player's fantasy value until we know his landing spot and, in Conforto's case, when he's going to sign.In a vacuum, however, Conforto can be a third or fourth outfielder for your fantasy team, someone who is capable of contributing in all five categories, though likely not excelling at any. Until he signs, you should drop him a good 10 spots from where you would otherwise have him, but he's not going to sit out the entire season, so don't let him fall too far in drafts.

Kepler's expected stats suggest he got pretty unlucky last year, as they looked a lot like his 2019 season where he hit 38 home runs and batted .252. On the plus side, he did swipe 10 bases, the first time he had reached double digits in that category in his career. His true outcome likely lies somewhere between his 2019 season and last year's numbers, and he's more of a .240, 20-homer bat. The bigger problem this year is that the Twins' lineup likely won't be strong, and his counting stats will take a hit. Kepler can fill in for you, just don't rely on him as a starter.

Santander dealt with a litany of injuries last year to his lower body, so the fact that he still popped 18 home runs in 100 games is rather impressive. He's admitted he is not 100% healthy after last year, which is obviously concerning with the season on the verge of beginning. Nevertheless, given Santander's ADP, he's well worth drafting. He's got 25 home runs in his bat easily if he can remain healthy, and his defense is so strong that he'll remain in the lineup even if he struggles offensively to start as he finds his footing. He rarely walks and so his runs scored total will never help you, but he's fine as a cheap outfield bat that always gets overlooked in fantasy.

Yastrzemski couldn't replicate his 2020 pace, though he did hit 25 home runs and total 155 combined runs and RBI. His batting average plummeted to just .224 (and his .222 xBA, one of the worst in the league, showed that number was earned), as pitchers continued their trends of throwing him fewer and fewer fastballs and more off-speed offerings.He performed terribly against non-fastballs last year, which led to a ridiculously low .254 BABIP, which was way out of character for him. Yastrzemski needs to adjust, but the good news is that the power he's shown appears to be real, and his counting stats should stay afloat batting in a strong San Francisco lineup. But until or unless he can improve against off-speed pitches, he'll likely struggle with batting average.

Myers couldn't sustain the many gains he made in the shortened 2020 season, but he didn't fall off a cliff entirely. His .256 batting average was his best (other than 2020) since 2016, and he offered 25 combined home runs and steals. The thing is that Myers' strikeout rate rose to 28.2%, but that's a number he can live with if he continued to make the quality of contact we're used to seeing from him. But, he didn't. His hard hit rate and exit velocity fell off a cliff (his 29.8% hard contact rate was one of the worst in baseball). It would seem like an odd decline for Myers, who was just 30 last year, so it may have just been a blip. But, it's worth being cautious before you head into the season assuming he'll bounce back. Given his ADP, however, you won't need to have confidence in him for him to be worth drafting.

Sanchez hits the ball hard and does so consistently, so he has a ton of power upside. He won't maintain the almost 40-homer pace he was on last year, and he needs to improve on his 31.1% strikeout rate if he's going to take a jump in value. But think Adolis Garcia without the speed - someone who will at times look unstoppable and go on major runs, but other times will frustrate you with his lack of consistency. He has the upside for 30-homer, 90-RBI season, so as a late-round pick, he's a great option.

Vaughn's rookie season was a little unfair, as he was thrust into the outfield despite little experience there when Eloy Jimenez suffered a serious injury in the spring. His 15 home runs in 127 games as a rookie showed his potential, but his 21.5% strikeout rate was a bit higher than projected. He'll likely see at-bats from several positions this year, as he plays outfield, first base, and DH, and it's likely that an advanced college bat such as his will take a step forward this year. Expect a good 20% increase on all his numbers across the board, which should make him startable, but not quite a fantasy superstar.

McCutchen batted just .222 last year with the worst strikeout rate of his career (23%), but he provided plenty of value elsewhere. His walk rate was a robust 14.1%, he slugged 27 home runs, and fell just short of 160 combined runs and RBI. He'll move to Milwaukee this year, and so his power should translate once again, and he'll likely get to extra at-bats as the DH. He's not exciting, but even the batting average should bounce back a bit given his expected stats last year, so don't be afraid to pull the trigger late.

It's hard not to love a guy who sprints to first base after a walk, especially when he walks 14% of the time, one of the best rates in baseball. Nimmo will lead off again this year for the Mets, and given his elite OBP (.393 career), he should score plenty of runs. He doesn't have a ton of power or speed, but a fully healthy Nimmo should give you close to a 15-10 season with a plus batting average and contribution in the runs scored categories. The key phrase there is "fully healthy," because Nimmo's 92 games played last year were the second most of his career. But that injury risk is baked into his ADP, so draft him late and start him when he's in the lineup. You likely won't be disappointed if you do.

McNeil's 2019 power outburst looks like a total anomaly, as he hit just seven home runs last year. His usual reliable batting average bottomed out to just .251 as he played through injury, but most of his underlying metrics looked strong. He'll rarely strike out, but there's just not that much that he can offer given his lack of power and speed. Worse still, he'll likely now bat in the bottom third of the Mets' batting order with the team's additions. There's little reason to consider McNeil in any capacity this year unless he somehow finds his power stroke.

Lewis is dealing with knee issues and likely won't be ready for Opening Day. When healthy, he's a talented but low-floor option, as he doesn't have a ton of speed or power and his strikeout rate (29.5% career) keeps his batting average in check. He's just 26 years old so, of course, there's upside for more. But the knee issues are enough of a reason to look elsewhere when you're considering a late-round outfielder.

Tapia moves from Colorado to Toronto, and although that's an obvious downgrade in terms of home park, it's pretty much as neutral a change as Tapia could have hoped for. He'll still play his home games in an extreme hitter-friendly environment, and he'll see a major upgrade in his surrounding lineup. The problem for Tapia, however, remains the same. He has extremely meager power numbers, and not enough speed to be a true difference-maker in the stolen base category (though he did swipe 20 last year). He'll almost certainly bat in the lower third of the lineup with Toronto, as he likely would have with the Rockies anyway, and his probable increase in runs scored should be canceled out by his likely drop in batting average (his xBA has been in the .250s in each of the last three seasons). There's little upside with Tapia, but he won't hurt you, so he's a decent bench option if you're light on steals.

 

 

Rojas chipped in last year, but he didn't quite meet expectations placed on him after a strong spring. He came a steal short of reaching double digits in both home runs and steals, but his expected stats leave little to be desired. He's got position flexibility and won't hurt you while he's in there, but he's not someone you can draft as a starter and feel confident about. Expect a similar line to last year.