The Brewers took the training wheels off for Corbin Burnes in 2022, allowing him to throw 202 innings after only 167 the year before. The 28-year-old didn't disappoint, striking out 243 batters while feasting on the free-swinging NL Central batters. Some fatigue appeared to set in following the All-Star Break, but overall, his numbers remained elite, with an xFIP of 2.85, a K/9 of 10.83, and a WHIP of 0.97. With no clear-cut SP1 in fantasy this season, Burnes is a solid choice, as he will buoy your pitching categories while pitching in front of a Top 10 defensive team.

This is your annual reminder to ensure you know how Shohei Ohtani's pitcher/hitter eligibility is treated in your league(s), as it can make a world of difference in fantasy value. What it will not make a difference in, however, is his incredible talent on the field. His fifth season in MLB saw a slight decline in hitting stats (34 HR, 95 RBI, .273/.356/.519) (and yes, that was a decline). However, he threw 166 innings, struck out 219 batters, and maintained a 2.33 ERA and 1.01 WHIP to finish fourth in Cy Young voting. The Angels have stated they plan to pitch Ohtani every sixth day as regularly as possible, meaning he could conceivably get 28-30 starts in addition to 600 plate appearances. On top of all of that, he is in his walk year and will be auditioning for what will surely be a huge contract. Yes, he clogs your Utility spot, and it can be frustrating to manage him in weekly leagues where he can only start as one or the other. But if you play on a platform where he is counted as both at all times, he is the fantasy 1.1, no matter who they give the real-life MVP to.

Gerrit Cole demonstrated some decline in 2022, allowing 1.48 HR/9 on his way to a 3.50 ERA and a career-high total in homers allowed with 33. There is your knock on the 32-year-old. The rest of his numbers remained stellar. He led the league in strikeouts with 257 of them in 200 2/3 innings, kept his WHIP at 1.02, and carried an xFIP of 2.77, meaning his ratios were slightly inflated. On top of that, the Yankees led MLB in team defensive runs saved, so anything FIP doesn't take into consideration should still be positive. Cole will typically pitch into the sixth inning, meaning he qualifies for wins and quality starts more often than not, and the Yankees should win an abundance of games in 2023. He is not the clear-cut SP1 he's been in years past, but he should still be one of the first off the board.

In 2022, Sandy Alcantara had Jacob deGrom on speed dial to discuss coping strategies for receiving little to no run support during a dominant pitching season. He had nine NDs, giving up an average of 1.5 earned runs while pitching more than six innings in all but one. Beyond that, Alcantara threw 228 innings with a 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts, winning the NL Cy Young with all 30 first-place votes. The 27-year-old demonstrated an easy delivery, and the Marlins demonstrated comfort in letting him go deep into ballgames. The concerns with Alcantara are related to over-drafting him coming off his career year and an xFIP that was an entire run above his ERA. He does not overpower hitters, but they struggle to make good contact against his three-pitch mix. He deserves a high draft pick - just recognize some slight regression may be on the horizon.

Spencer Strider arrived in MLB in 2022 and promptly helped many a fantasy manager make the playoffs. He pitched 131 2/3 innings, striking out an obscene 202 batters with a devastating slider that came after his 98 mph fastball. He struggled with free passes, issuing 3.1 walks per nine, but he more than made up for that with a 16.4% swinging strike rate and K% of 38.3. After he signed a six-year, $75 million contract, the Braves should allow him to throw more innings, probably in the 150-160 range, and he should still have RP eligibility, making him a points-league stud as well. Strider has the makings of a bona fide ace and is only 24 years old. Draft him with confidence.

Aaron Nola had a wildly unlucky 2021 that most fantasy managers were aware of on draft day in 2022. The managers who took him were rewarded with more innings, strikeouts, and vastly improved ratios. Nola remains elite in BB% (3.6) and HardHit% (31.6) while allowing weak contact - which is good since his defense consisted of mostly should-be DHs. The 29-year-old picked up an extra 25 2/3 innings of postseason work, the first of his career, bringing his total innings to a career-high 230. Nola is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies, so he will have plenty of motivation to demonstrate his ability to serve as the ace of any staff.

Once again, Jacob deGrom is the pitcher on the board with the wildest range of outcomes possible. If someone could guarantee his health, an argument could be made to take him in the first round. Instead, we have reality, and the reality is that deGrom started only 11 games and pitched 64 1/3 innings, both of which are lower numbers than in the truncated 2020 season. In those 64 innings, he struck out 102 batters using his elite arsenal of pitches. Batters did hit him a little harder when they did make contact, and he had a career-high 1.26 HR/9, but the rest of his Statcast profile still shines bright red. In the offseason, the Texas Rangers handed the 34-year-old a five-year, $185 million contract to anchor their staff. Globe Life Park is a better hitter's park than City Field, but when it comes to deGrom, the only factor that impacts his fantasy value is availability.

Justin Verlander had Tommy John surgery in 2020 at the age of 37, missed all of 2021 at the age of 38, and won the AL Cy Young Award in 2022 at the age of 39. As a reward for that performance, he signed a two-year contract with the Mets so he and Max Scherzer can arm wrestle for who gets to call themselves the staff's ace. Including the postseason run, Verlander threw 195 innings last season, and even though he has been a workhorse for his entire career, it is fair to question how many more years he can continue to flirt with 200 innings. He struck out 210 batters with a regular-season ERA of 1.75 and a microscopic WHIP of 0.83. Aside from turning 40 in February, fantasy managers need to be wary of the BABIP of .240, which is 30 points below his career average and due to regress. He will come with a senior citizen discount in drafts, but that could be a heck of a steal if he somehow comes close to a repeat performance.

Scherzer started only 23 games in 2022 due to a couple of oblique issues that kept him on the shelf for a couple of IL stints. When he did take the mound, the 38-year-old continued his march of dominance in his new digs. In 145 1/3 innings, Scherzer struck out 173 batters and maintained a 2.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His K% dropped from a super-elite 34.1% to a basic-elite 30.6%. While he does not have any outward signs of decline, some fantasy managers might be wary of investing a high-round pick in a guy who turns 39 in July. But assuming he returns to the 180-190 innings mark, he is well worth the investment.

Brandon Woodruff had a strange 2022 season. He only pitched 153 innings; he missed time due to a diagnosis of Raynaud's Syndrome, which affected the index, middle, and ring fingers on his pitching hand. He still struck out 190 batters and maintained a 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but the missed time and increased average exit velocity allowed left something to be desired for fantasy managers. The 13 wins were nice, and his underlying metrics remain stellar, but he comes with a little more risk than previously.

Two IL stints in 2022 are the only thing suppressing McClanahan's draft value in 2023. The 25-year-old pitched 166 1/3 innings, struck out 194 batters, and blessed fantasy managers with a 2.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. His Statcast page could be the official symbol of Valentine's Day, with the only non-red stat being his fastball spin rate. Because it's the Rays, it's hard to predict how many innings or how deep into ball games they will let him go, but as long as he is healthy, he could anchor a fantasy staff coming out of the fourth or fifth round. Expect a little over 10.0 K/9, an ERA closer to 3, a microscopic WHIP from the third-year player, and the latest entry into the Tampa Bay pitching echelon.

Emmanuel Clase led MLB with 42 saves last season, cementing his status as an elite closer and giving fantasy managers a reason to pay for saves in 2023. He pitched 72 2/3 innings, striking out 77, and maintaining a microscopic 1.36 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. He is in the 90th percentile and above in nine of 12 categories on Statcast, and even some slight regression in his overall numbers still leaves him in "elite" territory. Clase will turn 25 before the season and is locked into the closer role in Cleveland, making him and Edwin Diaz the clear top two at the position heading into 2023.

Shane Bieber traded an elite K% for an elite BB% in 2022, providing fantasy managers with a different type of ace on their pitching staff. He still struck out 198 batters in 200 innings, but his true value was in his 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His xERA was 3.51, but his xFIP was 2.98, which is encouraging for 2023. Bieber will not dazzle you with an overpowering fastball, and he occasionally gets lit up by hard contact, but his K/BB ratio of 5.50 will provide a great floor to rely on.

Josh Hader may come at a discount in 2023 due to those who fixate on a stretch of outings in August 2022 or look only at his final ERA. The surface stats are much uglier than fantasy managers have been used to seeing. The 28-year-old ended with a 5.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, both of which are career highs by a longshot. Looking beneath that, however, shows that his xERA was 3.51 with an xFIP of 2.94. His K% and Whiff% remain in elite status, and he still walked away with 36 saves. This is still a player with Top-3 closer abilities, so fantasy managers in leagues where others shy away due to a few outings in August should draft, sit back, and enjoy.

Zack Wheeler returned from his 2021 Cy Young runner-up campaign and defended his position as a top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. In 153 innings, the 31-year-old struck out 163 batters and ended the campaign with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The 153 innings were down from 213 1/3 in 2021, but this is actually encouraging in that the Phillies were cognizant of his usage. Wheeler will take the ball every fifth day and deliver a strikeout per inning, solid ratios, and should be a good source of wins for the defending National League Champions and your fantasy squad.

Julio Urias ended the 2022 season with a shiny 2.16 ERA, but this belies some concerning underlying numbers that pushed his xFIP to 3.81. The 26-year-old benefited from an excellent defense and an unsustainable .229 BABIP, while his HR/9 went up to 1.2. Those are the negatives. On the positive side, his spin rates are still above the 90th percentile, and he threw 175 innings, taking the ball every fifth day like clockwork. For 5x5 leagues, Urias finished third in the majors with 17 wins last year, and while it's not great to chase that category, he seems a safe bet to do well in it. Draft him expecting some regression, but he is still a very good pitcher on a behemoth of a team with a great defense.

Dylan Cease finished second to Justin Verlander for 2022 AL Cy Young and had an outstanding year for a wildly disappointing White Sox team. He threw 184 innings, going 14-8 while striking out 227 batters with an ERA of 2.20 and a WHIP of 1.11. Sounds great for a 27-year-old who could be a fantasy anchor for your pitching staff, right? Well... Underneath that sparkling 2.20 ERA was an xFIP of 3.50 and an extremely low BABIP of .260. These metrics should give you pause as you face the decision to draft him in the 2nd/3rd round of your draft. If he gets his walks and home runs under control, he could live up to that ADP, but be wary of drafting an "if" guy that high.

Kevin Gausman is an interesting case study of how surface and underlying stats can do weird things. In 2021, he had a 2.81 ERA but a 3.28 xFIP; in 2022, it was a 3.35 ERA and 2.75 xFIP. The difference lay entirely in his BABIP, which did its expected jump from an impossible .274 to an outrageous .363. Gausman throws his split-finger fastball almost 35% of the time, which is his best pitch but also the one that can lead to this type of BABIP jump. All of that is to say that the 31-year-old cannot be counted on for exceptional, ace-like numbers. Still, he will be a solid SP2 in any fantasy team rotation, giving you strikeouts and protecting your ratios, but the variance will always play into his overall numbers.

Luis Castillo got traded to the Mariners at the deadline last season, moving from the band box that is Great American Ballpark to T-Mobile Park and helping Seattle make the playoffs for the first time since 2001. The 30-year-old pitched 150 innings after beginning the season on the shelf, and his numbers were markedly improved from his 2021 campaign. He struck out 167 batters on his way to a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. With Castillo, the concern is often that he starts slow, but Seattle may be a perfect location for him to settle in more quickly, as home games in April and May will have a roof option. He would make for a good SP2 on regular 5x5 fantasy teams.

Cristian Javier began 2022 in the bullpen and then started 25 games, bringing joy to fantasy managers' hearts everywhere. The 25-year-old tossed a 94-mph fastball with a 77-mph curve and mixed in a slider and changeup to create an 11.74 K/9. He struck out 194 batters in 148 2/3 innings and held a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His BABIP and LOB% are both due for regression, and his xFIP was 3.53, so it's important to temper expectations in those departments. All in all, Javier will make a great SP3 with SP2 upside.

Devin Williams played second fiddle to Josh Hader for most of four seasons before finally getting handed the ball after Milwaukee traded the latter to San Diego. Out of 14 Statcast pitching categories, the 28-year-old ranks in the 99th or 100th percentile in nine of them. His weakness - BB% - is the thing that keeps him in Tier 2 of closers for most fantasy analysts, but his talent and abilities cannot be ignored during drafts. Milwaukee is a pitching-heavy team that will offer plenty of save opportunities. Right now, Williams is the clear choice to get the first crack at them and rack up strikeouts for your team while doing so.

Jordan Romano saved 36 games for the Blue Jays in 2022, and he is the clear-cut closer going into 2023. The two knocks against him are that he walks more batters than he should, and his xERA and xFIP were an entire run above the actuals. All the same, Romano struck out 73 batters in 64 innings while maintaining a 2.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The 29-year-old does not fit the profile of a truly elite closer, but he should collect another 30 saves, securing a good base in 5x5 leagues.

The Blue Jays took the training wheels off Alek Manoah, and he responded with 196 2/3 innings of ace-level pitching. His K/9 rate dipped to 8.24, but his BB/9 improved from 3.22 to 2.33. The concern is that his 2.24 ERA was well below his xERA of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.97. Manoah collected 16 wins and, while we can't predict those very well, he did pitch over 6 innings on average, making him a solid pick in QS leagues as well. He is still only 25 years old and should be a durable righty on fantasy staffs in 2023.

Yu Darvish is an often-overlooked starter in fantasy drafts, be it his age or his past inflated ERA that drive people away. His 2022 numbers, however, rewarded whoever took him two rounds too late, finishing 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and 197 strikeouts in 194 2/3 innings. Nothing in his underlying metrics looks like a giant red flag. His value is great in the sixth or seventh round, and even though we don't chase wins, he plays for a team who should put him in line for many of them. He turns 37 in August, but he could be a sneaky great pick on draft day.

Injury-averse fantasy managers missed out on Zac Gallen's first healthy season in 2022, which saw him start 31 games and throw 184 innings. He struck out 192 batters on his way to a 2.54 ERA and sparkling 0.91 WHIP. The 27-year-old throws his fastball almost half the time but finishes hitters off with his curveball and changeup equally. He limits hard contact, and his 4.09 K/BB ratio is in the upper echelon of the majors. Arizona is on the upswing, but the Diamondbacks are often forgotten about on draft day. A healthy Gallen is a steal at his ADP of 74.

In 2022, Max Fried demonstrated that pristine control and location can still be effective in today's Triple-Digit SP Society. In 185 innings pitched, he struck out 170 batters while walking only 32. He limits hard contact and uses a four-pitch combination to sit in the 91st percentile of chase rate. The 29-year-old will give fantasy managers six innings in most games, and he will anchor your SP ratios to sit in the 2.70/1.05 range. He might be the best SP2 on the board and available in the sixth round in most drafts.

If spin rate is your jam, you'll love what Ryan Pressly has to offer. The 34-year-old closer for the World Series Champions is in the 97th percentile in fastball spin and the 100th percentile in curveball spin. He used a four-pitch arsenal to get 33 saves with a 2.98 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He is not as highly sought after as the overpowering, high-strikeout guys above him, but he will provide everything fantasy managers need in a closer and then some.

Carlos Rodon celebrated turning 30 by signing a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees, and it's not hard to see why New York was willing to pay him. In 2022, Rodon threw a career-high 178 innings, struck out 237 batters, and ended with a sparkling ERA of 2.88 and WHIP of 1.03. Fantasy players need to note two important things: (1) The change from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium will have some elevated effect to his ERA; and (2) Beware of drafting an oft-injured pitcher coming off a career year. Rodon is a great pitcher who will help any fantasy staff but don't overpay on draft day.

Framber Valdez became Mr. Quality Start in 2022, tossing 201 1/3 innings in 31 starts for the World Champions. Houston allowed the 29-year-old to go deep into games, and with the departure of Justin Verlander, he slots in as their No. 1 starter. Valdez has more value in fantasy leagues where quality starts are a category because his pitching repertoire lends itself to more groundouts than strikeouts. He is no slouch, though, and will serve as a great SP2 on fantasy rosters.

Raisel Iglesias signed a four-year deal with the Angels to be their closer before the 2022 season and found himself collecting holds out of the Braves bullpen in August. The 33-year-old still has a K% in the 92nd percentile in the league, though this did drop from 37.7% to 31.7% last year. Atlanta has a number of closer options, though Iglesias is the most experienced of the bunch and should get the first crack at it. He's a Tier 3 closer with a higher upside if he lands the job.

Ryan Helsley used a devastating three-pitch combo to emerge as one of the top closers in baseball in the latter half of 2022. He added velocity to his fastball, resulting in a K/9 that jumped from 8.94 to 13.08 and grabbing 19 saves for the Red Birds. He should enter 2023 as the clear-cut closer in St. Louis, and if he continues to throw in the triple digits as often as he did last year, he can shore up your saves category while helping your ratios and strikeouts. He should easily be in the top 10 relief pitchers taken on draft day.

Triston McKenzie reduced his BB/9 from 4.35 to 2.07 in 2022, skyrocketing up fantasy rankings and boosting the pitching staff for any manager who rolled the dice on him. The question becomes what his fourth MLB season will bring. His .237 BABIP is due for some regression, and his xFIP was 3.77. He struck out 191 batters in 191 1/3 innings, with a practically unhittable curveball. He does allow more hard contact than we'd like from an SP1, but he slots in nicely as an SP2/SP3 as long as fantasy managers account for some regression while drafting.

Felix Bautista is a hard-throwing righty who arrived in Baltimore and immediately became a high-impact reliever. He struck out 88 batters in 65 2/3 innings while maintaining a 2.19 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He collected 14 holds before the Orioles traded Jorge Lopez at the deadline, after which he notched 15 saves. As long as the 27-year-old continues to rein in the free passes, the saves should be plentiful and competition for the role won't be. Bautista is a Tier 2 closer worth targeting in drafts.

Robbie Ray signed a five-year contract with Seattle in 2022 and produced well, even if he didn't live up to his Cy Young numbers. He started 32 games, throwing 189 innings and striking out 212 batters. His ERA made the expected leap up to 3.71, but his BB% stayed in the single digits, meaning he may have repaired his proverbial Achilles heel for good. While he is not an SP1, he carries a lot of good assets as an SP2 for 2023 and can be expected to finish in the general vicinity of 2022's numbers.

Joe Musgrove has been a picture of pitching consistency over the past two seasons, with his stats almost eerily similar. His strikeouts were down, but so were his walks and ERA. He had identical WHIPs of 1.08 and has started more than 30 games in four of the past five seasons (excluding 2020). Drafting the 30-year-old is a smart idea if you pick an SP1 with more upside (and more risk) because you know what you're going to get. With a stacked Padres lineup and a propensity to collect quality starts, Musgrove checks all the boxes for one of the highest floors in the 2023 SP pool.

Clayton Kershaw will be 35 on Opening Day, a game he has a high chance to start. He still has elite breaking balls that limit hard contact and strikes out more than a batter per inning. Kershaw has always pitched as though allowing walks offends him to his core, and he is still in the 93rd percentile in walk rate. Fantasy managers need only remember that his days of 30 starts are long gone, and he will have one or two IL stints during the season. Assuming his ADP remains reasonable, he is an asset to your staff.

Nestor Cortes was a gift to fantasy managers who drafted him late in 2022. He started 28 games, throwing 158 1/3 innings, striking out 163 batters, and maintaining a 2.44/0.92 ERA/WHIP. His GB% of 33.5 and LOB% of 82.8 contribute to his excellent ratios. The Yankees were the best team in Defensive Runs Saved, which furthered his effectiveness. He won't come with quite as big of a discount in 2023, but in the tenth round, he is a great SP3.

Logan Webb flashed his strikeout upside in 2021, leading to fantasy managers overvaluing him in 2022. Instead, his K/9 reverted back to his earlier 7.63 range versus the 9.59 K/9 outlier. Webb utilized his slider and changeup more last season, which helped to protect his ERA and WHIP. Even though the Giants finished last in defensive runs saved, his high ground ball rate didn't hurt him. Webb is more of an SP3/SP4 now and should be drafted as such.

Luis Severino returned from Tommy John surgery, and the Yankees applied restraint to his workload early in the season. He then incurred a lat injury that cost him a 60-day IL stint and limited his start count to 19. However, in 102 innings, he struck out 112 batters and carried a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. After he returned from the IL, he showed no signs of lingering issues down the stretch. Walks and home runs will always keep Severino from being in that upper echelon of starters, but he has SP1 ability that can be had long after the studs are gone.

George Kirby arrived in the majors in 2022 and immediately showed off his meticulous control which led to a 6.05 K:BB ratio. The lack of walks is his calling card, even if he gives up hard contact on his four other pitches. Fantasy managers are clamoring for him to develop a second devastating pitch to increase his effectiveness overall. At age 25, Kirby can serve as a great SP3/SP4 for fantasy managers with hope that he will climb the ranks going forward.

Camilo Doval went 27 for 30 in save opportunities in 2022 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and he will enter 2023 as the clear-cut closer for the Giants. While his BB% is higher than we'd like from a truly elite closer, he creates weak contact thanks to a 99-mph cutter. Even with the walks, Doval is a Tier 2 closer you can get in the seventh or eighth round.

Logan Gilbert flashed the goods in 2021 and returned for a great year in 2022. He pitched 185 2/3 innings, striking out 174 batters with a 3.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His Statcast page looks concerning at first, finishing above the 50th percentile in only three categories - extension, fastball velocity, and BB%. Gilbert throws five different pitches, which keeps hitters off balance and allows him to be successful. He will turn 26 in May, and 2023 will show us what kind of long-term fantasy asset he may be. Much like his teammate, George Kirby, Gilbert is a nice SP4 piece you can grab a little later in drafts.

In 2022, Kenley Jansen led the NL in saves with 41. His K% was an impressive 32.7, and his BB% plummeted to 8.5 (from 12.9 in 2021). His xERA was an entire run lower than his actual, and batters hit .191 against him. While his chances of repeating 40+ saves are low, he enters the season as THE guy in Boston and should be one of the Top 10 closers off the board.

Blake Snell pitched exactly the same number of innings in 2022 as he did in 2021, but he slashed three percentage points off his walk rate to lower his ERA and WHIP to fantasy-relevant levels. He will always strike out a high percentage of batters (32% last season), but his health is a question mark so expect him to miss some time if you draft him.

If you feel the need for pitching speed, Hunter Greene offers you all that and then some. Unfortunately, he also offers 3.4 BB/9 as he sometimes isn't sure where his 100-mph throws will end up. Down the stretch in 2022, he showed improvement with a 45:8 K:BB ratio in August and September. The 23-year-old is projected to have a K-rate north of 30%, and he will certainly boost a fantasy team's strikeout count. He pitches for a terrible team in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, so there will be growing pains, but if he harnesses his talent, he will be a steal at his current ADP.

David Bednar holds the illustrious title of Best Closer on Worst Team heading into 2023. The 28-year-old mixes a 96-mph fastball with a 77-mph curveball and 90-mph changeup for a 32.9 K%. Even though he had an ERA of 2.61, his FIP was 2.44, which is a product of pitching in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball. Pittsburgh may not win many games, but Bednar is clearly the closer and should be dominant in any uniform.

While it's a terrible idea to chase wins on draft day, it is still worth noting that Kyle Wright had 21 of them in 2022. Wright was an entirely different pitcher in 2022 than he was the year before, cutting his BB% from 14.3 to 7.2 and raising his K% from 17.1 to 23.6. He ended with an ERA of 3.19 and WHIP of 1.16, and 174 strikeouts in 180 1/3 innings. Even accounting for some increase in ERA, his xFIP last year was 3.30, so the underlying metrics don't suggest extreme regression. Wright will be a helpful SP3 who can be had in the tenth round of most drafts.

Clay Holmes had two seasons in 2022. Before the All-Star Break, he had 16 saves, seven holds, an ERA of 1.34, and a 41:8 K:BB ratio. After the ASB, he hit the IL with a back strain and had four saves, an ERA of 4.44, and a 25:13 K:BB ratio. With the Yankees letting Chapman go to the Royals, Holmes currently stands alone on the closer depth chart. If you buy into his first half from 2022, he is a steal at his current ADP. If you don't, it is wise to stay clear.

Injuries limited Freddy Peralta to only 78 innings in 2022, but he put up elite numbers when he did take the mound. He allows weak contact and his xERA sits in the 90th percentile. The only question for fantasy managers is whether or not you believe he can stay healthy. If you think he'll cross the century mark in innings pitched, he's a steal at his current ADP.

Lance Lynn suffered a knee injury late in Spring Training that cost him two months of the season. When he returned, it looked like all of the skills that made him so highly sought after had disappeared. He had an unsightly 6.42 ERA heading into August and was getting clobbered by hitters. From August til the end of the season, however, he carried a 2.43 ERA and returned to his low-walk, low-HR self. Lynn is a prime candidate to climb draft boards if he shows out during Spring Training given his history as a workhorse.

Nick Lodolo arrived on the scene and shortly thereafter hit the IL with a back injury. When he returned, he dazzled fantasy managers with his 11.41 K/9 and 3.49 xFIP. Yes, the Reds are going to be absolutely terrible, so there probably won't be many wins. But Lodolo is a strikeout machine (131 in 103 innings) and has the stuff to improve on his rookie numbers with a full season. Go get him.

Joe Ryan emerged as a solid No. 2 starter in Minnesota in 2022, striking out 151 batters in 147 innings, going 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His xERA was 3.57 but his xFIP was 4.35. He gives up more HR than fantasy managers would like (1.22 HR/9 last year), but he balances that with a 9.24 K/9 and 2.88 BB/9. The 26-year-old definitely has a place on fantasy rosters and can probably be picked up somewhere in the 13th round.

Tyler Glasnow was having an outstanding season in 2021 before requiring Tommy John surgery. He somehow made it back before the end of the 2022 season, starting two games and looking like the Glasnow of old. The 29-year-old's Steamer projections show a 2.96 xFIP and a K/9 north of 11, and his current ADP is 92. He is a risky SP2 and would be a much safer pick as a third or fourth starter. However, if he stays healthy, he has all the makings of an SP1.

If you drafted Lucas Giolito in 2022, chances are good you spent a great deal of time debating whether or not to drop him, trade him, or hold. The good news is that he wasn't as bad as his surface numbers. He had an ERA of 4.90 but an xFIP of 3.66. The other news is that his fastball velocity and K% decreased while his BB% increased. Giolito is only 28 years old, and his ADP puts him somewhere around the 13th round. He should be better in 2023, but no promises he will return to his 2019-2021 form.

While Father Time will claim all athletes at some point, the 39-year-old Morton seems to have an agreement in place to avoid being claimed yet. He started 31 games, pitched 172 innings, and struck out 205 batters last season, which makes that one of the quietest 200-strikeout seasons in memory. He continues to have an elite curve ball to match his 95-mph fastball and plays for the high-scoring Atlanta Braves. He is a safe pick in the late rounds of drafts.

Pablo Lopez started 32 games for the hapless Marlins in 2022 and threw 180 innings with 174 strikeouts, a 3.75 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP. He had been the target of many trade rumors at the deadline but stayed put. Instead, he was swapped to the Twins in January, which should result in more wins with a better lineup, though Target Field will play smaller than loanDepot Park in Miami. He is an appealing SP4 for fantasy staffs.

If you ask a fantasy analyst who the Twins' closer will be this season, the most common answer will be, "Well, we know who it SHOULD be." Jhoan Duran falls into the category of "too good to be a closer." By that, we mean that chances are good that Minnesota will use him in high-leverage situations, no matter which late inning that might be. With a K% in the 96th percentile, the 25-year-old will be one of the Top 3 RP without a clear path to saves taken off the board. He's going about 80 spots before Jorge Lopez, the actual closer, and handcuffing them isn't the worst idea.

Andres Munoz is in the Top 3 relievers being drafted without a closer role due to his sheer dominance. His Statcast page is a thing of beauty, and his K% projection is around 37. The 24-year-old nabbed 14 saves last season, and he is listed as part of the three-headed Mariners committee with Paul Sewald and Diego Castillo. In a SV+HD league, Munoz would be considered a stud, and he still has plenty of value in 5x5s.

Chris Sale seemed like the most snake-bitten player in baseball last season. He began the year on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his ribs. He made his way back in July and pitched 5 2/3 innings before a line drive fractured his pinky finger. While waiting for him to possibly return, he fell off a bike and fractured his wrist, which had to be surgically repaired in the offseason. Behind all of this is the hope that he can return to his 2019 form, which is the last time he made more than 10 starts in a season. The draft discount would have to be huge to take a flier on him, and chances are good that one of your much more hopeful league mates will take him before he reaches that point.

Alexis Diaz is already named the official closer for the Reds, which isn't a testament to his RP prowess, considering Cinci is going nowhere fast. His Statcast page jumps at you with his strikeout ability and limiting hard contact. However, his BB% also stands out for being in the 2nd percentile. Don't get blinded by his 1.84 ERA from last year, either. His xFIP was 3.97, and he hands out free passes like a new business in a strip mall. Make sure your ratios are protected before drafting him for saves.

 

Dustin May had a long road to his return from Tommy John surgery, and the rustiness was apparent when he took the mound for the first time on August 20. He has elite curveball and fastball spin rates, but he was a bit wild with the breaking pitches, which is pretty typical for pitchers coming back. Still just 25, May has a high upside for 2023, which would make him a steal at his current ADP. However, beware the innings limit that is sure to come.

 

When the Yankees traded Jordan Montgomery to St. Louis for an injured Harrison Bader at the deadline, it seemed like somewhat of a baffling move, especially as he tore up the NL Central upon arrival. Montgomery is never going to strike out a ton of batters, but he maintains good ratios and has started 30+ games in the last two years. Once you have good fireballers on your roster, Montgomery can fill in and hopefully garner a couple of wins with a great Cardinals offense and top-5 defense supporting him.

 

 

Chris Bassitt is the exact type of high floor/low ceiling starting pitcher that you draft to your roster in a later round and then don't worry about. He isn't going to do anything flashy (8.27 K/9), but he shouldn't do much to harm your numbers. After starting 27 games in 2021 and 30 in 2022, Bassitt can be counted on for 175 solid innings and somewhere in the 3.70/1.18 ERA/WHIP.

Scott Barlow held a lot more fantasy appeal before the Royals went out and signed Aroldis Chapman. Barlow will still get his fair share of save opportunities, but this smells like a closer by committee to start the season.

Brady Singer is a 26-year-old unfinished product who flashed some excellent skills in 2022. He started 24 games and threw 153 1/3 innings while maintaining a 3.23 ERA (3.30 xFIP) and 1.14 WHIP. His Statcast leaves a lot to be desired, though he is in the 82nd percentile in BB%. He's another pitcher who will be a nice SP4 or SP5 to add later in drafts to help balance your ratios.

Daniel Bard saved 34 saves for the hapless Colorado Rockies last year, and they rewarded him with a two-year extension. Fantasy managers should trust that he will get first crack at saving games, but they should also be aware that the 37-year-old benefited from a career-low .221 BABIP. While this is due to correct, it shouldn't scare you off from making him a top reliever on your squad.

 

If Jon Gray had stayed healthy in 2022, he would be going much higher in drafts this year. Instead, he had a start/stop season where he dealt with finger, knee, and oblique issues. Assuming he starts 20+ games this year, he will provide fantasy managers a strikeout-per-inning performance by coupling a 96-mph fastball with his punchout 85-mph slider. Take the discount and don't look back.

Luis Garcia will make for a great SP4 on fantasy teams. He projects to pitch around 161 innings and should be right around a strikeout per inning. He gave up more home runs in 2022, but his underlying metrics suggest a straightforward, above-average SP4 for fantasy rotations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liam Hendriks quietly had a very solid year for a disappointing White Sox team. He collected 37 saves, while pitching 57 2/3 innings and striking out 85 batters. He remained in the 90th percentile or higher in xBA, K%, fastball velocity, extension, xERA, and Whiff%. He missed some time with a right forearm strain; though there were no immediate signs of this lingering issue, it is something to take into consideration. He announced in January that he had been diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, so his timetable for return is in question.

 

 

 

Even though there are suggestions that Montas could return in 2023 following his shoulder surgery, he has no value in redraft leagues and can be left on the table on draft day.