Alvin Kamara or Nick Chubb
Who Should I Draft?
Experts' Pick | |||
Nick Chubb RB - CLE  Nick Chubb RB - CLE | Alvin Kamara RB - NO  Alvin Kamara RB - NO |  | |
Expert |
83% Recommended by 136 of 164 experts |
17% Recommended by 28 of 164 experts |
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| Most Accurate Experts | |||
| Top ExpertsTop RB ExpertsTop Player Experts |  See who the Most Accurate Experts would draftUpgrade Now | ||
| Rankings | |||
| ECR | # 8 | # 10 | - |
| Best Rank | # 5 | # 6 | - |
| Worst Rank | # 18 | # 25 | - |
| Fantasy Points | |||
| Season Total | 195.3 | 187.7 | - |
| Avg Game | 14.0 | 14.4 | - |
| Avg Projection | 198.3 | 216.3 | - |
| Schedule | |||
| SOS Rank | 15 | 16 | - |
| Misc | |||
| Injury Alert | ‐ | ‐ | - |
| Expert Ranks | |||
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Nick Chubb | Alvin Kamara | Add Player |
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Nick Chubb RB - CLE Nick Chubb RB - CLE | Alvin Kamara RB - NO Alvin Kamara RB - NO | |
| 2022 Schedule | ||
| Week 1 | at CAR | at ATL |
| Week 2 | vs. NYJ | vs. TB |
| Week 3 | vs. PIT | at CAR |
| Week 4 | at ATL | vs. MIN |
| Week 5 | vs. LAC | vs. SEA |
| Week 6 | vs. NE | vs. CIN |
| Week 7 | at BAL | at ARI |
| Week 8 | vs. CIN | vs. LV |
| Week 9 | BYE WEEK | vs. BAL |
| Week 10 | at MIA | at PIT |
| Week 11 | at BUF | vs. LAR |
| Week 12 | vs. TB | at SF |
| Week 13 | at HOU | at TB |
| Week 14 | at CIN | BYE WEEK |
| Week 15 | vs. BAL | vs. ATL |
| Week 16 | vs. NO | at CLE |
| Week 17 | at WAS | at PHI |
| Week 18 | at PIT | vs. CAR |
Nick Chubb RB - CLE Nick Chubb RB - CLE | Alvin Kamara RB - NO Alvin Kamara RB - NO | |
| Rushing | ||
| Rush Attempts | 247.1 | 216.3 |
| Rush Yards | 1,228.6 | 952.4 |
| Rush TDs | 8.7 | 7.9 |
| Receiving | ||
| Receptions | 25.0 | 59.1 |
| Rec Yards | 202.5 | 521.6 |
| Rec TDs | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| Points | ||
| Fantasy Points | 198.3 | 216.3 |
Nick Chubb RB - CLE Nick Chubb RB - CLE | Alvin Kamara RB - NO Alvin Kamara RB - NO | |
| 2021 Points | ||
| Week 1 | 20.1 | 15.1 |
| Week 2 | 15.8 | 3.0 |
| Week 3 | 8.4 | 17.8 |
| Week 4 | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| Week 5 | 23.0 | 24.2 |
| Week 6 | ‐ | ‐ |
| Week 7 | ‐ | 23.9 |
| Week 8 | 6.9 | 13.6 |
| Week 9 | 28.3 | 16.4 |
| Week 10 | ‐ | ‐ |
| Week 11 | 20.4 | ‐ |
| Week 12 | 3.9 | ‐ |
| Week 13 | ‐ | ‐ |
| Week 14 | 6.5 | 20.5 |
| Week 15 | 15.3 | 3.1 |
| Week 16 | 24.4 | 5.9 |
| Week 17 | 5.8 | 16.0 |
| Week 18 | 6.0 | 16.2 |
| Total | 195.3 | 187.7 |
| Average | 14.0 | 14.4 |
Nick Chubb RB - CLE Nick Chubb RB - CLE | Alvin Kamara RB - NO Alvin Kamara RB - NO | |
| 2021 Targets | ||
| Week 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Week 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Week 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Week 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Week 5 | 1 | 8 |
| Week 6 | ‐ | ‐ |
| Week 7 | ‐ | 11 |
| Week 8 | 1 | 4 |
| Week 9 | 2 | 7 |
| Week 10 | ‐ | ‐ |
| Week 11 | 2 | ‐ |
| Week 12 | 4 | ‐ |
| Week 13 | ‐ | ‐ |
| Week 14 | 4 | 5 |
| Week 15 | 1 | 6 |
| Week 16 | 4 | 4 |
| Week 17 | 1 | 6 |
| Week 18 | 1 | 2 |
Nick Chubb RB - CLE Nick Chubb RB - CLE | Alvin Kamara RB - NO Alvin Kamara RB - NO | |
| Expert | ||
| Kevin Wheeler The Draft Zone | Chubb missed three games last season, and four in 2020, and still finished as the RB 11 overall in PPR scoring both years. There is plenty of competition for touches in the Cleveland backfield and questions at the QB position, but Chubb has been the most consistent producer over the past three years. I believe Chubb is the best pure runner in the NFL and his break-away speed produces the big plays we look for in fantasy. "Nick Chubb has finished as an RB1 in FPPG in consecutive seasons while boasting a snap share of the RB27 & RB28. @AnOutragedJew x | If he avoids suspension we may have to move him up to the mid-first round. Kamara had more expected fantasy points per game (19.4) than Jonathan Taylor in '21. He was the RB6 (18.1 fp/g) despite career-worst efficiency, the Saints had 530 pass attempts (32nd) and will throw more this year. 53% of his career production has come as a receiver. |
| Wolf of Roto Street Roto Street Journal | 8/3: Up-and-down we go. Now the NFL Appeals & will push for season-long suspension, most expect it to stick. I'm ranking as if Watson won't play in 2022 until told otherwise - wish is a huge downgrade for Cooper, Njoku, Chubb, Hunt, everyone. Avoid CLE. 8/1: With Watson's suspension coming in at a low 6 games (absurd), Chubb's fantasy ceiling is significantly boosted. He averaged +3 FPs in wins & the Browns will have a whole lot more of those w/ Watson, in addition to more running lanes & TD opportunities 7/17 Update - Now there's rumblings Watson's suspension could be as low as 4-6 games. Chubb remains a risk until this is finalized, but this definitely increases his upside | 8/2: AK41's court hearing is delayed at least 60 days, which means a suspension is much more unlikely, at least to start the year. I've been gobbling him up in Round 3, and will likely target him at the tail-end of Round 2 until we hear otherwise from now on 6/29 Update: Likely facing a 6+ game suspension -- Mark Ingram is a VERY cheap (re:Free) handcuff so you can "own the backfield," but missing over 1/3 of the season makes Kamara a risky bet in the first 2 rounds now, even with his stretch run ceiling. No Sean Payton, but Kamara benefits greatly from Jameis returning. He was the RB4 in PPR PPG (19.98) w/ Winston @ QB & this was in an atrocious attack. With MT & Olave now in town, this could be a monstrous season for AK41. |
| Derek Brown FantasyPros | As an elite rusher, Nick Chubb has finished as a top ten running back in weekly scoring in each of the last three seasons. While a passing game role is a wish that will likely never come true (1.8 targets per game, 2021), Chubb doesn't need it to remain a locked-in top 12-15 fantasy back. His prowess on early downs makes up for the lack of targets. Last year he ranked third in evaded tackles, sixth in breakaway run rate, and fourth in yards per touch last season. As soon as Deshaun Watson is under center, Chubb should see a bump in scoring opportunities. Last season Cleveland ranked 23rd in red-zone scoring attempts per game. | Last year Alvin Kamara showed no signs of slowing down, logging his first 200-plus carry season. In the six full games with Jameis Winston under center, he was the RB5 in fantasy, averaging 23.2 touches and 5.5 targets (26.4% target share). Over that span, he was seventh in targets and sixth in receiving yards among all running backs. Kamara is a top 5-10 option at the running back position. |
| Andrew Erickson FantasyPros | The days of Nick Chubb's absurd rushing efficiency going to waste have come to an end. During his four-year career, the Browns running back has never averaged fewer than five yards per carry. But at the same time, he has also never played in a top-12 scoring offense. The best offense he played was in 2020 - 13th in points per game - which by no coincidence was also Chubb's best season from a point per game measure. The former Georgia back averaged 17.3 PPR points per game, which would have ranked sixth in 2021. The 12 rushing touchdowns definitely boosted Chubb's numbers, and scoring double-digit TDs is well within his reach with Deshaun Watson taking charge after his 6-game suspension. Just be wary that Chubb won't be used as an every down back. Even when Kareem Hunt missed time in 2021, Chubb's role/usage didn't change drastically with the Browns sprinkling in other running backs on the depth chart. His 17-18 touches per game average the last two seasons shouldn't change even if the team trades Hunt this offseason. Chubb's role as a receiver also leaves a lot to be desired after he posted a meager 4.8% target share in 2021, averaging fewer than two targets per game (1.8). His path to upside is touchdowns and that's represented by his five top-6 weekly finishes last season - fourth among running backs. | Alvin Kamara ranked third in touches per game (22.1) and was the RB6 in points per game after seeing a career-high in total seasonal touches (287) in 2021. He was the offense with no other weapons and averaged nearly six carries more per game than his career average. However, this came at the expense of his receptions per game falling by 1.5 per game. 2021 was the first season in Kamara's career he failed to catch at least 81 passes. The touches will inevitably come down for Kamara in 2022 as the Saints look to extend the shelf life of their 27-year old running back. As will Kamara's No. 3-ranked RB target share (13%) as the offense looks to spread the ball more with capable wide receivers available on the roster. But the main reason Kamara is being drafted at the end of Round 3 - as opposed to Round 1 or 2 - is because of a looming suspension. I won't dive deep into the weeds here from a legal side, but I recognize that his availability this season looks much better than it did a month ago. Essentially, the NFL seems likely to let the criminal justice system play out in regards to Kamara's case before laying down any punishment under the new collective bargaining agreement. His August 1 hearing was pushed back two months, and a suspension could realistically be pushed back as far into 2023. Unless of course a video releases of the crime in question which would force the NFL's hand into action. But as of now, they seem more than happy to take their time making Kamara a fantasy value at the end of Round 3. |
| Mark Ringo Sleepers and Busts | Chubb is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Unfortunately, at the time of this writing (early July) DeShaun Watson is looking at the possibility of a one-year suspension. Jacoby Brissett is set to man the helm in the meantime. He's more of a game manager than a gunslinger. I expect the Browns' offense to struggle in 2022. Bottom line- this is one of those- I love the player, but hate the situation type of scenarios. This all hinges on DeShaun Watson's suspension. Keep an eye on this situation. As of now, Chubb is overvalued | UPDATE- Kamara's case has been delayed again, this time two months (end Sept/beg Oct). Since the NFL usually waits until the legal process has ended, it's possible Kamara could avoid a suspension in 2022. If that happens, he is no longer a bust at his current ADP & could be a value. Drafting Kamara is risky, but could pay off if his lawyers can keep delaying his case. The question is, how much gamble do you have in you? Stay tuned. It's not a question of if, but when Alvin Kamara gets suspended. There is a video of him hitting someone. The Saints expect a minimum suspension of six games, maybe more. The only question is when the NFL will impose it. RB 12 is way too high for a RB who is going to miss time, no matter how good he is. |
| Nick Bretwisch Win Daily Sports | Not in love with the Chubb (mainly because of the QB situation and likelihood of seeing a LOT of stacked boxes). He's arguably the best running back in football and has the best offensive line in football, but the role to make him a true, top-tier RB1 just doesn't really exist right now. | Until we know more about the legal situation, I can't move Kamara any lower based on speculation. |
| Derek Lofland FantasyPros | Chubb missed four games in the fantasy season and still finished with 1,315 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns. He should be an elite running back with the addition of Deshaun Watson, but his upside is capped early in the year with Watson being suspended for at least six games. | Kamara struggled with injuries and ineffective quarterback play in 2021 and still finished the fantasy season with 1,175 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns. He should be back as a RB1, although Kamara was arrested in Las Vegas in February and charged with battery resulting in substantial bodily harm. At this point, a suspension in 2023 seems more likely, but it is still a risk that he could miss time in 2022. |
| Brandon Funston The Athletic | Has been an RB1 in half-PPR formats each of past 3 seasons, and is only RB in NFL history to average 5.0 YPC in each of 1st four seasons (min. 100 carries) | Was Top 5 among RBs in PPR FPPG in 1st season sans Drew Brees, so the only question is availability, be it suspension or injury (7 DNPs in past 3 seasons) |
| Bart Wheeler Hail to Fantasy Football | Only this low in my rankings with a potential suspension looming. | |
