Who Should I Draft?

Derrick Henry or Patrick Mahomes

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
Derrick Henry
Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
 
 
Expert
Recommendation
61%
Recommended by
72 of 119 experts
39%
Recommended by
47 of 119 experts
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 31# 38-
Best Rank# 6# 7-
Worst Rank# 67# 65-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total186.3417.0-
Avg Game11.626.1-
    
Schedule 
    
SOS Rank1532-
    
Misc 
    
Injury Alert-
    
Expert Ranks 
Derrick HenryPatrick MahomesAdd Player
    
Bobby SylvesterB. Sylv...
FantasyPros
35 m
#53#39-
    
Donald GibsonD. Gibson
FantasyPros
39 m
#49#26-
    
Robert WaziakR. Waziak
The Fantasy Footballers
39 m
#26#32-
    
Andrew SeifterA. Seifter
FantasyPros
1 h
#26#32-
    
Husein ShabazzH. Shabazz
SleeperWire
1 h
#42#51-
    
Jeff BoggisJ. Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
1 h
#25#35-
    
Pat FitzmauriceP. Fitz...
The Football Girl
2 h
#30#34-
    
Andy BehrensA. Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
3 h
#22#32-
    
Bart WheelerB. Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
4 h
#44#49-
    
Muntradamus M.
Beast Dome
6 h
#39#59-
    
Des BielerD. Bieler
The Washington Post
9 h
#24#32-
    
Rich PiazzaR. Piazza
Fantasy Shed
11 h
#22#54-
    
Craig PhillipsC. Phil...
FF Prophet
12 h
#35#32-
    
Bill EnrightB. Enright
FFChamps
12 h
#22#32-
    
Andy VandaA. Vanda
Take Your League
14 h
#36#32-
    
Staff RankingsS. Rank...
QB List
15 h
#48#36-
    
Nick ZylakN. Zylak
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16 h
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Michael PetropoulosM. Petr...
BRoto Fantasy
17 h
#26#22-
    
Richard SavillR. Savill
Fantasy Six Pack
17 h
#33#38-
    
Kyle YatesK. Yates
The Fantasy Footballers
17 h
#29#32-
    
Zach BrunnerZ. Brunner
FlurrySports
17 h
#21#39-
    
Chet GreshamC. Gresham
WalterFootball
18 h
#60#40-
    
Matthew HillM. Hill
DataForce Fantasy Football
18 h
#24#32-
    
Andrew GouldA. Gould
FantasyPros
18 h
#40#28-
    
Mauricio GutierrezM. Guti...
Estadio Fantasy
20 h
#30#36-
    
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20 h
#24#32-
    
Dan HarrisD. Harris
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21 h
#24#32-
    
Andy HollowayA. Holl...
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22 h
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Rudy GambleR. Gamble
Razzball
22 h
#22#46-
    
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Fantasy Knuckleheads
23 h
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Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
23 h
#39#20-
    
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CBS Sports
1 d
#53#32-
    
Dave RichardD. Richard
CBS Sports
1 d
#59#31-
    
Blake FincherB. Fincher
Fantasy Football Cafe
1 d
#35#32-
    
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#27#22-
    
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#27#22-
    
Mike RandleM. Randle
BettingPros
1 d
#22#32-
    
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Yahoo! Sports
2 d
#15#35-
    
Kyle AugustK. August
FF Fellas
2 d
#40#32-
    
Jason PetropoulosJ. Petr...
BRoto Fantasy
2 d
#34#46-
    
Matthew BoweM. Bowe
Razzball
2 d
#43#35-
    
Nick MarianoN. Mariano
RotoBaller
2 d
#43#31-
    
Joe BondJ. Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
2 d
#33#22-
    
Brandon FunstonB. Funston
The Athletic
2 d
#41#35-
    
Davis MattekD. Mattek
RotoExperts
2 d
#45#40-
    
Dave McKayD. McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
2 d
#20#33-
    
Liz LozaL. Loza
Yahoo! Sports
2 d
#18#32-
    
Brad EvansB. Evans
Yahoo! Sports
2 d
#6#54-
    
Ryan SkolrudR. Skolrud
SkullKing Football
2 d
#36#22-
    
Ryan NoonanR. Noonan
The Quant Edge
2 d
#24#32-
    
Derek LoflandD. Lofland
FantasyPros
2 d
#26#32-
    
Scott EngelS. Engel
RotoBaller
2 d
#42#39-
    
Justin GeorgeJ. George
Take Your League
2 d
#28#32-
    
Brad ZieglerB. Ziegler
The Athletic
2 d
#28#32-
    
Jason LongfellowJ. Long...
Razzball
2 d
#26#32-
    
Bill DubielB. Dubiel
RotoBaller
2 d
#28#32-
    
Anthony AmicoA. Amico
DraftKings
2 d
#24#65-
    
Mike TagliereM. Tagl...
FantasyPros
2 d
#44#41-
    
Justin BooneJ. Boone
theScore
2 d
#46#50-
    
Matt CampM. Camp
Bleacher Report
2 d
#26#47-
    
Marc CavigliaM. Cavi...
Bruno Boys
3 d
#24#32-
    
Michael FlorioM. Florio
Fantrax
3 d
#45#32-
    
Seth McKinleyS. McKi...
FF Fellas
3 d
#67#32-
    
George BankoG. Banko
Fantasy Football Helpers
3 d
#32#57-
    
Ken ZalisK. Zalis
Pressbox
3 d
#24#32-
    
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FantasyOMatic
3 d
#47#18-
    
Nick HumphreysN. Hump...
Fantasy Victors
3 d
#26#32-
    
Matt OkadaM. Okada
Redshirts Fantasy Football
3 d
#35#54-
    
Matt SchaufM. Schauf
Draft Sharks
3 d
#24#54-
    
Elisha TwerskiE. Twerski
FantasyPros
3 d
#22#32-
    
SmittyS.
SleeperU
3 d
#16#35-
    
Andy SingletonA. Sing...
Expand The Boxscore
4 d
#26#35-
    
Heath CappsH. Capps
Fake Teams
4 d
#28#32-
    
Scott WhitfieldS. Whit...
Roto Rankings
4 d
#42#32-
    
Michael TomlinM. Tomlin
Fantasy Six Pack
4 d
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Sablich BrothersS. Brot...
5th Down Fantasy
4 d
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Pierre CamusP. Camus
RotoBaller
4 d
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Tim JablonskiT. Jabl...
The Hateful 8
4 d
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Brandon MurchisonB. Murc...
RotoBaller
4 d
#24#32-
    
4 d
#10#7-
    
Kevin WheelerK. Wheeler
DraftWize
4 d
#32#47-
    
Mike MonkM. Monk
IDP Monk
5 d
#36#35-
    
Site RankingsS. Rank...
FFToday
5 d
#33#37-
    
Mike WrightM. Wright
The Fantasy Footballers
5 d
#35#32-
    
Jason MooreJ. Moore
The Fantasy Footballers
5 d
#40#32-
    
Walton SpurlinW. Spurlin
FantasyPros
5 d
#28#32-
    
Brian StraitB. Strait
FTLS Fantasy Football
5 d
#25#42-
    
Jody SmithJ. Smith
FantasyData
5 d
#46#38-
    
Mark RossM. Ross
Athlon Sports
5 d
#45#34-
    
Staff RankingsS. Rank...
FullTime Fantasy
5 d
#22#32-
    
Matt De LimaM. De Lima
FullTime Fantasy
5 d
#18#32-
    
J.P. ScottJ. Scott
Athlon Sports
5 d
#37#21-
    
David BiggsD. Biggs
Drink Five
6 d
#35#32-
    
Mundo Fantasy MXM. Fant...
Mundo Fantasy
7 d
#28#32-
    
Alan HarrisonA. Harr...
The Fantasy Fix
7 d
#24#32-
    
Nate HamiltonN. Hami...
Fantrax
7 d
#32#57-
    
Anthony StaggsA. Staggs
FF Statistics
7 d
#38#35-
    
Dan ClasgensD. Clas...
Get Sports Info
1 w
#26#35-
    
Tozzi BrothersT. Brot...
Legion Report
1 w
#44#35-
    
Dominick PetrilloD. Petr...
Fantasy Hot Read
1 w
#32#35-
    
Heath CummingsH. Cumm...
CBS Sports
1 w
#61#42-
    
Kevin RobertsK. Roberts
Breaking Football
1 w
#26#35-
    
Jacob GibbsJ. Gibbs
SportsLine
1 w
#26#35-
    
Sean KoernerS. Koerner
The Action Network
2 w
#12#15-
    
Eric MoodyE. Moody
FantasyData
2 w
#36#35-
    
Scott SmithS. Smith
RotoViz
2 w
#34#48-
    
Chris MeaneyC. Meaney
The Athletic
2 w
#25#22-
    
Ryan Hodge R. Hodge
ProjectRoto
2 w
#36#35-
    
Jeff PaurJ. Paur
RTSports
2 w
#26#35-
    
Thor AkerleyT. Akerley
Fantasy Team Advice
3 w
#32#35-
    
Jake ArthurJ. Arthur
Colts.com
4 w
#28#32-
    
Zach GreubelZ. Greubel
Gridiron Experts
4 w
#46#35-
    
Christian BritoC. Brito
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
3 w
#30#31-
    
Andrew EricksonA. Eric...
FantasyData
07/15
#15#59-
    
Jacob HubmanJ. Hubman
The Fantasy Headliners
06/27
#26#22-
    
Derek BrownD. Brown
The Quant Edge
06/01
#41#47-
    
David FucilloD. Fucillo
SB Nation
05/08
#32#22-
    
Chris MeyersC. Meyers
Athlon Sports
05/07
#41#22-
    
Nick VertucciN. Vert...
Sundays Are For Football
01/31
#43#26-
    
  Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
Derrick Henry
Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
2019 Schedule 
Week 1 at CLE at JAC
Week 2 vs. IND at OAK
Week 3 at JAC vs. BAL
Week 4 at ATL at DET
Week 5 vs. BUF vs. IND
Week 6 at DEN vs. HOU
Week 7 vs. LAC at DEN
Week 8 vs. TB vs. GB
Week 9 at CAR vs. MIN
Week 10 vs. KC at TEN
Week 11BYE WEEK at LAC
Week 12 vs. JACBYE WEEK
Week 13 at IND vs. OAK
Week 14 at OAK at NE
Week 15 vs. HOU vs. DEN
Week 16 vs. NO at CHI
Week 17 at HOU vs. LAC
  Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
Derrick Henry
Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
2018 Points 
Week 13.128.3
Week 25.938.8
Week 35.725.3
Week 43.122.9
Week 55.615.8
Week 62.627.0
Week 712.532.8
Week 826.0
Week 99.226.8
Week 1017.820.1
Week 114.635.9
Week 122.9
Week 1310.533.0
Week 1447.820.8
Week 1529.218.0
Week 1615.228.2
Week 1710.617.3
  Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
Derrick Henry
Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Expert 
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
Epic run in final 4 games of '18 (146.3 rush YPG, 7 rush TDs) has some dreaming of things to come - but let's not let 4 games wipe away 42 other games that show he's a wiggle-less power runner with no pass game upsideDepending on the format, he was typically 4-5 FAN PTS better per week than the No. 2 overall fantasy QB - sure, regression is bound to happen, but don't expect too much - special talent, great system, ample weapons
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
 Lowering him to the start of Round 5. Still my top ranked fantasy QB, but I like Deshaun Watson almost as much.
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
As long as Henry is being handed the ball 20+ times a game, he will be well worth his ADP. That's no guarantee, but all signs point to Tennessee being a ground and pound team this year. Game script could be Henry's downfall if the Titans trail early and often, bringing pass catching back, Dion Lewis into the game.Overall QB1. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to be too cute.
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
Henry is currently dealing with a strained calf muscle so this will be something to keep an eye on. After the way he performed to close out the season, there is no doubting that Tennessee will actually use Henry as the primary back all season, however. He might lead the league in rushing yards, as he can be a workhorse, but without much help on offense, the touchdowns probably won't accompany the yards, nor will any receiving production, limiting his fantasy ceiling substantially.In terms of raw fantasy points, Mahomes broke the historical quarterback record, but when you compare him to the QB13, or above replacement value, he was merely 20th of all-time. While that is still great, of course, it was driven by an astronomical and unsustainable touchdown rate. Regress that to the expected mean and there is no reason you should be considering him in the 2nd, let alone 1st round. If he drops to the late 3rd, however, that would be a strong value.
Derek Lofland
FantasyPros
Henry carries some risk in 2019, because the bulk of his production came in Week 13-17, when he had 97 rushing attempts for 625 yards, 6.44 yards per carry and 7 TDs. I would value him as a RB2 until he shows he can be a bell cow back for an entire season.Mahomes did score 417 fantasy points last year, but quarterbacks rarely duplicate historic seasons. I think Mahomes will have a great year, but I do not think he reaches 417 fantasy points again.
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
 The #1 QB in True Throw Value last season, Mahomes (unsurprisingly) had the most valuable throw of any QB last season. Even with regression, he can still be a top-3 QB. However, he's being taken too early in drafts.
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
 I won't actually be investing an early round pick on a QB, but Mahomes remains the guy if you plan on doing so.
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
Are the Titans really ready to promote Henry to a workhorse role? That's doubtful considering Dion Lewis is still on the roster and they're not paying him close to $5 million this year to sit on the bench and be a cheerleader. Henry deserves more touches, that much is certain, but what happens when the Titans fall behind in a game? Lewis is far-and-away the better pass-catcher, which means Henry will be gamescript-dependent. If you believe the Titans are contenders and will finish with a winning record, that's a vote of confidence for Henry, though it's hard to say that with any confidence. He's the ultimate boom-or-bust running back, which is why he's best-suited as an RB2Yes, Mahomes is coming off the best fantasy season of all-time for a quarterback. Yes, he's going to have some regression. He threw a touchdown on 8.6 percent of his passes in 2018, the seventh-highest mark of all-time. Here's the list of quarterbacks who are ahead of them, included with their touchdown rate in that season, as well as the following season: Peyton Manning (9.9 to 6.2), Ken Stabler (9.3 to 6.8), Deshaun Watson (9.3 to 5.1), Aaron Rodgers (9.0 to 7.1), Tom Brady (8.7 to 5.0), Mark Rypien (8.7 to 4.6). Don't pay for last year's stats
Sean Koerner
The Action Network
most likely workhorse back to play full 16 game season. very high floor 
Kyle Yates
The Fantasy Footballers
 Without Tyreek Hill, it's hard to imagine 5,000 yards and 50 Touchdowns again from Patrick Mahomes. With that being said, he's still projected to be my Top QB this season and he should be the first QB off the board in fantasy drafts.
Nick Zylak
Fantasy Football Advice
Derrick Henry is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football. Unfortunately, I don't have a strong take for or against Henry. I believe that the end of last season was likely the best run of his career, but that he's capable of matching that performance for stretches going forward. He finished last season with a disgusting 87/585/7 stat line over the final FOUR WEEKS! That was 6.72 yards per carry across 87 carries!. Now, most of that was from the crazy Jaguars game. In fact, he went over 95 rushing yards just twice last season, and was under 60 rushing yards in every game from weeks 1-12. I'll even do you one further. Henry has under 95 rushing yards in 91% of his career regular season games, and less than 3 targets in that same percentage. It's not all bad for Henry though. He was PFF's third rated RB last season, ranked second in yards per carry after contact, 3rd in elusiveness rating, and 3rd in percent of carries that gained positive yardage. Henry is a good RB, and it's shocking that he's never been given the opportunity to be the bell cow. Henry has more than 19 carries in just 6% of his career regular season games. I expect that to increase this season. The Titans should improve as an offense with the addition of A.J. Brown, and the return of Delanie Walker. The receptions won't be there, so he's going to be volatile, but Henry has massive weekly upside in any format...and I wouldn't be shocked if he posts a 1,300/13 stat line this season.My exact ranking on Mahomes is going to depend on whether or not Hill is suspended. If he is, then I don't see how you can draft Mahomes. If he isn't, then his ADP is likely to rise to a point where you can's draft him. So either way, it's a no for me. I understand that he just posted over 5,000 yards and 50 TD's. But I also know that he just had one of the best years ever in terms of passing TD percentage...and that he's likely to see at least a little regression in that category. But the main reason for not drafting him is the opportunity cost. He's the top ranked QB this season...no one is going to deny that. But this season has the single deepest QB pool in the history of the NFL. There are around 25 QB's that you can make the case for starting in a 12 team league. Will all of them pan out? Of course not. But there are going to be QB's going in the 12th round and later that finish within a point per game of the top tier. It's just not worth spending such a high pick at a position where there are so many elite options going at the end of drafts. And this is especially true if Hill were to miss any number of games.