Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert
Who Should I Draft?
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Experts' Pick | |||
Justin Herbert QB - LAC  Justin Herbert QB - LAC | Joe Burrow QB - CIN  Joe Burrow QB - CIN |  | |
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99% Recommended by 213 of 216 experts |
1% Recommended by 3 of 216 experts |
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| Most Accurate Experts | |||
| Top ExpertsTop QB ExpertsTop Player Experts |  See who the Most Accurate Experts would draftUpgrade Now | ||
| Rankings | |||
| ECR | # 8 | # 13 | - |
| Best Rank | # 3 | # 7 | - |
| Worst Rank | # 13 | # 24 | - |
| Fantasy Points | |||
| Season Total | 342.8 | 178.6 | - |
| Avg Game | 22.9 | 17.9 | - |
| Avg Projection | 342.8 | 307.0 | - |
| Schedule | |||
| SOS Rank | 24 | 15 | - |
| Misc | |||
| Injury Alert | ‐ | ‐ | - |
| Expert Ranks | |||
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Justin Herbert | Joe Burrow | Add Player |
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Justin Herbert QB - LAC Justin Herbert QB - LAC | Joe Burrow QB - CIN Joe Burrow QB - CIN | |
| 2021 Schedule | ||
| Week 1 | at WAS | vs. MIN |
| Week 2 | vs. DAL | at CHI |
| Week 3 | at KC | at PIT |
| Week 4 | vs. LV | vs. JAC |
| Week 5 | vs. CLE | vs. GB |
| Week 6 | at BAL | at DET |
| Week 7 | BYE WEEK | at BAL |
| Week 8 | vs. NE | at NYJ |
| Week 9 | at PHI | vs. CLE |
| Week 10 | vs. MIN | BYE WEEK |
| Week 11 | vs. PIT | at LV |
| Week 12 | at DEN | vs. PIT |
| Week 13 | at CIN | vs. LAC |
| Week 14 | vs. NYG | vs. SF |
| Week 15 | vs. KC | at DEN |
| Week 16 | at HOU | vs. BAL |
| Week 17 | vs. DEN | vs. KC |
| Week 18 | at LV | at CLE |
Justin Herbert QB - LAC Justin Herbert QB - LAC | Joe Burrow QB - CIN Joe Burrow QB - CIN | |
| Passing | ||
| Pass Att | 614.2 | 611.9 |
| Pass Cmp | 401.9 | 403.1 |
| Pass Yards | 4,614.8 | 4,407.7 |
| Pass TDs | 31.1 | 27.2 |
| Ints | 12.4 | 11.8 |
| Rushing | ||
| Rush Attempts | 62.5 | 55.3 |
| Rush Yards | 267.6 | 224.3 |
| Rush TDs | 3.9 | 3.0 |
| Misc | ||
| Fumbles | 1.9 | 3.2 |
| Points | ||
| Fantasy Points | 342.8 | 307.0 |
Justin Herbert QB - LAC Justin Herbert QB - LAC | Joe Burrow QB - CIN Joe Burrow QB - CIN | |
| 2020 Points | ||
| Week 1 | ‐ | 17.3 |
| Week 2 | 23.2 | 24.5 |
| Week 3 | 15.7 | 20.4 |
| Week 4 | 24.0 | 16.1 |
| Week 5 | 27.4 | 5.3 |
| Week 6 | ‐ | 17.7 |
| Week 7 | 38.5 | 34.6 |
| Week 8 | 23.2 | 18.9 |
| Week 9 | 23.4 | ‐ |
| Week 10 | 21.5 | 12.5 |
| Week 11 | 27.7 | 11.3 |
| Week 12 | 17.4 | ‐ |
| Week 13 | 6.4 | ‐ |
| Week 14 | 16.7 | ‐ |
| Week 15 | 28.0 | ‐ |
| Week 16 | 16.7 | ‐ |
| Week 17 | 33.0 | ‐ |
| Week 18 | ‐ | ‐ |
| Total | 342.8 | 178.6 |
| Average | 22.9 | 17.9 |
Justin Herbert QB - LAC Justin Herbert QB - LAC | Joe Burrow QB - CIN Joe Burrow QB - CIN | |
| Expert | ||
| Kyle Yates FantasyPros | How good was Herbert's rookie season, really? Well, he finished with the most passing touchdowns in NFL history by a rookie QB ever with 31. He also finished with the second most passing yards in NFL history for a rookie QB - only behind Andrew Luck - with 4,336. Those are truly insane numbers for a player that was thrust into the starting job right before game two of the season and who was viewed as a bit of a developmental player coming out of Oregon. Heading into year two, Herbert has a new HC and OC above him and we're not exactly sure what to expect from him with this change. The track record for QBs entering year two and encountering a system change isn't exactly sparkling, but is Herbert just that good that it might not matter much for him? With the receiving weapons he has around him, we shouldn't be too concerned. He's still worth drafting as a top-10 QB in 2021. | We got a taste of what Burrow can do for fantasy football in 2020 before his devastating knee injury. While I believe that he's going to come back strong this season, he might get off to a slow start based off the reports coming out of training camp. He'll need to learn to trust his knee again to get back to form and that might take some time, unfortunately. With that in mind, it's probably best to view Burrow as a high-end QB2 in 1QB formats versus someone that you should draft and feel confident starting as your QB in week one. He's a fine target to stash as your second QB if you go that route, but otherwise there's a strong possibility that you'll be able to pick Burrow up off of waivers by week two or three if he does get off to the slow start that many are predicting. |
| Mark Ringo Sleepers and Busts | Herbert did an amazing job last year as a rookie learning the Chargers offense in a pandemic. He'll have to learn another one this year. Anthony Lynn is gone. Brandon Staley is the new head coach and his offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, comes over from the Saints. Expect a lot of short quick passes and a power running game. Herbert has the goods and the line is improved. Despite the challenge of learning a new offense, Herbert should still do well in 2021. | The Bengals drafted Burrow's old college teammate, WR JaMarr Chase which should help the offense. The concern- can the Bengals offensive line protect him? Cincy also plays a brutal schedule. Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh all have tough defenses and they play each of them twice! I really like Burrow's future, but I'd temper expectations for 2021. |
| Kevin Wheeler The Draft Zone | He might say he's ready to go week 1, but there's no way he's mobile enough to protect himself. | |
| Brendan Tuma FantasyPros | Herbert's sensational debut set rookie records in both 300-yard games (8) and TDs (31), and he did so despite working with a poor offensive line and questionable coaching decisions. It appears as if both those areas will receive an upgrade in '21. Herbert's production likely depends on it too. The 23-year-old's 75.4 passing grade under pressure (per PFF) was the highest ever for a rookie signal caller, but that stat isn't considered "sticky" season-to-season. Herbert might regress in this area, but an improved supporting cast keeps him as a firm QB1 in fantasy land. | Joe Burrow finished 19th out of 42 quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus' passing grade last season. But it's no secret that he was under siege most of the time, and it's notable that Burrow rated out far better when it comes to intermediate throws, which are a stickier stat on a year-to-year basis, and thus a better indicator of true talent. Burrow finished fifth according to this metric and his overall grade was ultimately doomed by a weak 20.8% deep-ball completion rate. Again, perhaps the offensive line is the primary reason for this. Questions remain about how much of an effort the Bengals made to improve that unit this offseason, but there are at least reasons to think it'll be better, even if it isn't exactly all that strong. Cincinnati has enough weapons and should play at a fast enough pace to make Burrow an exciting late-round QB in '21 fantasy drafts. |
| Wolf of Roto Street Roto Street Journal | Line improvements are HUGE. I like the Saints QB Coach as OC too - should be slinging. | 8/17 Update: Slightly concerned that Burrow has looked rough all camp & unwilling to push past 10 yards. This whole offense could stink with awful protection if Burrow can't round into form sooner than later |
| Kevin Tompkins BallBlast | With Joe Burrow under center, the Cincinnati Bengals passed 4% over their expected pass rate in 2020 and should be trending that way in 2021. The rushing floor for Burrow may come later on in the year but with sheer passing volume, a bad defense, and the team drafting of Ja'Marr Chase in the early first round this past April, the Bengals have made it clear to everybody what they plan to do in 2021 and the avenue they're taking to do it. I have a feeling there are going to be one big question asked by fantasy managers in November: "How did we miss on Joe Burrow this season?" | |
| Mike Tagliere FantasyPros | What Herbert did in 2020 was miraculous. There's no two ways about it. To be handed the starting job just one hour before the game in Week 2, then go on to break the rookie record for passing touchdowns (31) is ridiculous. Now, with that being said, he still finished as the QB9 last year while throwing 595 pass attempts, the fourth most in the legaue. Now that he's got a defensive-minded head coach and a healthy defense, we could see the pass attempts dip a bit in 2021, which would certainly hurt his appeal. The Chargers did increase the talent on the offensive line, but also replaced Hunter Henry with Jared Cook, which is a certainly a downgrade. Herbert should still be a solid low-end QB1, but it's tough to see him finishing as a top-five option in 2021. | When Burrow went down with a torn ACL last year, he was sitting as the QB16 in the fantasy rankings, just behind Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater. That's not exactly living up to expectations. He is apparently on track to be back in the lineup for Week 1, but his mobility might be limited, especially to start the year, which will put a damper on his fantasy upside. The good news is that the Bengals improved the offensive line this offseason, as well as drafting Ja'Marr Chase at No. 5 overall based on Burrow's recommendation. He now has one of the best trio of wide receivers in the game, paired with a rebuilding defense, which should be the recipe for plenty of pass attempts. But again, dial back expectations because of his mobility. Burrow is best-served as a high-end QB2 in fantasy this year. |
| Derek Lofland FantasyPros | Herbert had 342.8 fantasy points in his rookie year on a team that started (3-9) before winning their last four games. The sky is the limit for him and he should be an elite QB1 in his second season with a team that should be on the upswing. | Burrow was the 16th ranked quarterback after Week 11 and he should be in the QB2 mix provided he is cleared to play in Week 1. All signs point to him being ready at this point in the offseason. |
| Joe Pisapia FantasyPros | Justin Herbert set a rookie record for passing TDs (31), threw just ten picks, and crossed 4.3K yards on his way to Rookie of the Year honors. A new coaching staff, including a new OC, should be careful not to screw up a good thing. The new OC is Joe Lombardi, former QB coach of the Saints. Learning under Sean Payton and Drew Brees, expectations are high for Herbert and company. The expectations are a more "up-tempo" offense built around Herbert's strengths. Drafting Rashawn Slater goes a long way to helping improve an offensive line that struggled. With (8) 300-yard games, Herbert had some big days in 2020, but he also had some rookie moments. Suppose you draft Herbert, bid on a similar season to 2020, not necessarily upside for more. He's not as safe as some veterans like Russell Wilson, nor do I think he has the upside in startup dynasty leagues like Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow. But the 23-year-old QB was impressive enough year one to consider him a QB1 in 2021. | Before the ACL tear, Joe Burrow looked very much like an emerging star at QB for the Bengals. He was on pace for 4.3K yards and around 25 combined TDs. In the good news department, the Bengals drafted his favorite target Ja'Marr Chase from LSU to add to an already strong WR group, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They did pick up two offensive linemen, Jackson Carman and D'Ante Smith, as well. They had both better perform because Burrow was sacked 31 times in 10 weeks (2nd most sacks taken by a QB in '20). But the best news, besides the fact Joe Burrow is medically on track for the start of the season, is that the Bengals defense is still going to be deficient in 2021. That means Joe Burrow will constantly be looking to put up points, and that's fantasy gold. He threw for 300 yards in 5 of his ten games last season and should be well over 4K yards in 2021. The one caveat here is that although Burrow was sneaky mobile in college, you may see a more conservative approach for him post major knee surgery. Burrow is a top 10 dynasty QB, and in 2021, he should be considered a low-endQB1. Just know, there will be some highs and lows in that game log. |
| Tim Petropoulos BRoto Fantasy | After bursting on the scene his rookie season, Herbert is going to get his second playbook in as many seasons, but if we are judging future schemes based on coaching trees, that may end up being a good thing. Joe Lombardi was been the Saints QB coach for the last 5 seasons, working with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, and is the grandson of the guy they named the Super Bowl trophy after. Now, with an offense designed just for him, the talent that was clear last season might shine even brighter. He is still surrounded by incredible talent and an improved OLine as well. | The addition of Ja'Marr Chase has many fantasy football players excited for the prospect of Joe Burrow reconnecting with his LSU mate and what that might mean for fantasy production. Let's not forget, however, that Burrow is coming off of a major knee injury. In addition, the offensive line is trash and the Bengals are counting on past-prime veterans and rookies to fill the holes. Burrow struggled on long passes last year, finishing behind guys like Nick Foles, Gardener Minshew and Sam Darnold in big plays despite more attempts. His average time of 2.3 seconds in the pocket was 2nd to last (Big Ben) among QBs with at least 400 throws. If he doesn't get more time in the pocket, the year two bump you expect to see may need to wait. |
