Who Should I Draft?

Patrick Mahomes or Zach Ertz

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Experts' Pick
 
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI
Zach Ertz
 
 
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32%
Recommended by
51 of 157 experts
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 34# 36-
Best Rank# 7# 19-
Worst Rank# 65# 78-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total417.0164.3-
Avg Game26.110.3-
    
Schedule 
    
SOS Rank3230-
    
Misc 
    
Injury Alert-
    
Expert Ranks 
Patrick MahomesZach ErtzAdd Player
    
Dave RichardD. Richard
CBS Sports
2 w
#31#24-
    
Joe BondJ. Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
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#22#23-
    
Bobby SylvesterB. Sylv...
FantasyPros
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Doug OrthD. Orth
FFToday
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#32#38-
    
Jake CielyJ. Ciely
The Athletic
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#32#38-
    
Dalton Del DonD. Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
#32#56-
    
Jason MooreJ. Moore
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#32#38-
    
Matt SchaufM. Schauf
Draft Sharks
2 w
#54#37-
    
Dennis SosicD. Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
2 w
#22#78-
    
Richard SavillR. Savill
Fantasy Six Pack
2 w
#37#38-
    
Kevin WheelerK. Wheeler
Draftwize
2 w
#47#23-
    
Rudy GambleR. Gamble
Razzball
2 w
#46#35-
    
Dale DeMottD. DeMott
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
2 w
#20#57-
    
Staff RankingsS. Rank...
FullTime Fantasy
2 w
#32#38-
    
Matthew FreedmanM. Free...
The Action Network
2 w
#54#38-
    
Andrew EricksonA. Eric...
FantasyData
2 w
#54#56-
    
Christian BritoC. Brito
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
2 w
#32#37-
    
Robert WaziakR. Waziak
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#53#37-
    
Andy VandaA. Vanda
Take Your League
2 w
#32#37-
    
Mike WrightM. Wright
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#53#37-
    
Dan ClasgensD. Clas...
Get Sports Info
2 w
#32#38-
    
Jamie CalandroJ. Cala...
Fantasy Team Advice
2 w
#32#37-
    
The FFGhostT. FFGhost
Dynasty League Football
2 w
#32#38-
    
Christopher VentraC. Ventra
RotoExperts
2 w
#32#38-
    
Brian StraitB. Strait
FTLS Fantasy Football
2 w
#38#24-
    
Kyle YatesK. Yates
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#32#37-
    
Scott PianowskiS. Pian...
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
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Davis MattekD. Mattek
RotoExperts
2 w
#33#40-
    
Brandon FunstonB. Funston
The Athletic
2 w
#35#28-
    
Thor AkerleyT. Akerley
Fantasy Team Advice
2 w
#32#38-
    
Mick CiallelaM. Cial...
Fantrax
2 w
#46#23-
    
Bill EnrightB. Enright
FFChamps
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QB List
2 w
#36#35-
    
Andy SingletonA. Sing...
Expand The Boxscore
2 w
#35#28-
    
Andrew FerrisA. Ferris
Fantasy Hot Read
2 w
#32#48-
    
Andrew GouldA. Gould
FantasyPros
2 w
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Elisha TwerskiE. Twerski
FantasyPros
2 w
#32#38-
    
Andy HollowayA. Holl...
The Fantasy Footballers
2 w
#32#38-
    
Heath CappsH. Capps
Fake Teams
2 w
#32#38-
    
Pierre CamusP. Camus
RotoBaller
2 w
#58#34-
    
Bill DubielB. Dubiel
RotoBaller
2 w
#32#37-
    
Kevin HansonK. Hanson
EDSFootball
2 w
#32#38-
    
Justin BooneJ. Boone
theScore
2 w
#49#42-
    
Scott BarrettS. Barrett
Pro Football Focus
2 w
#32#38-
    
Brad ZieglerB. Ziegler
The Athletic
2 w
#32#38-
    
Marc CavigliaM. Cavi...
Bruno Boys
2 w
#32#38-
    
Jeff RatcliffeJ. Ratc...
Pro Football Focus
2 w
#32#38-
    
Derek LoflandD. Lofland
FantasyPros
2 w
#32#38-
    
Mike TagliereM. Tagl...
FantasyPros
2 w
#39#26-
    
Jared SmolaJ. Smola
Draft Sharks
2 w
#32#38-
    
Donald GibsonD. Gibson
FantasyPros
2 w
#22#23-
    
Adam RonisA. Ronis
FullTime Fantasy
2 w
#32#38-
    
Liz LozaL. Loza
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
#32#38-
    
Jason WillanJ. Willan
Gridiron Experts
2 w
#54#38-
    
Michael PetropoulosM. Petr...
BRoto Fantasy
2 w
#22#19-
    
Ryan NoonanR. Noonan
The Quant Edge
2 w
#32#38-
    
Anthony CervinoA. Cervino
Gridiron Experts
2 w
#32#38-
    
Kaz KalitaK. Kalita
Big Guy Fantasy Sports
2 w
#32#38-
    
Justin GeorgeJ. George
Take Your League
2 w
#32#38-
    
Tim JablonskiT. Jabl...
The Hateful 8
2 w
#37#21-
    
Jacob GibbsJ. Gibbs
SportsLine
2 w
#35#53-
    
Rich PiazzaR. Piazza
Fantasy Shed
2 w
#54#60-
    
Seth KleinS. Klein
Fantrax
2 w
#32#60-
    
Jacob HubmanJ. Hubman
The Fantasy Headliners
2 w
#32#38-
    
Scott SmithS. Smith
RotoViz
2 w
#48#29-
    
Nick MarianoN. Mariano
RotoBaller
2 w
#31#29-
    
Brad EvansB. Evans
Yahoo! Sports
2 w
#54#38-
    
Matt De LimaM. De Lima
FullTime Fantasy
2 w
#32#38-
    
Alex BlickleA. Blickle
Fantasy Team Advice
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#54#38-
    
Jody SmithJ. Smith
FantasyData
2 w
#38#23-
    
Andy BehrensA. Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
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#32#38-
    
Justin SablichJ. Sablich
5th Down Fantasy
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#32#38-
    
David BiggsD. Biggs
Drink Five
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Raju ByfieldR. Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
2 w
#22#24-
    
Matthew HillM. Hill
DataForce Fantasy Football
2 w
#32#38-
    
Michael TomlinM. Tomlin
Fantasy Six Pack
2 w
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Muntradamus M.
Beast Dome
2 w
#59#56-
    
Nick HumphreysN. Hump...
Fantasy Victors
2 w
#32#38-
    
Matt OkadaM. Okada
Redshirts Fantasy Football
2 w
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Mauricio GutierrezM. Guti...
Estadio Fantasy
2 w
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Site RankingsS. Rank...
FantasyOMatic
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#31#37-
    
Greg SmithG. Smith
TwoQBs
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Seth McKinleyS. McKi...
FF Fellas
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Jeff BoggisJ. Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
2 w
#35#28-
    
Michael FlorioM. Florio
Fantrax
2 w
#32#38-
    
Tozzi BrothersT. Brot...
Legion Report
2 w
#32#37-
    
Jason LongfellowJ. Long...
Razzball
2 w
#32#38-
    
Nick ZylakN. Zylak
Fantasy Football Advice
2 w
#31#37-
    
Tyler LoechnerT. Loec...
RotoViz
2 w
#32#38-
    
Zach BrunnerZ. Brunner
FantasyPros
2 w
#39#38-
    
Dan HarrisD. Harris
FantasyPros
2 w
#32#38-
    
Joseph DolanJ. Dolan
Fantasy Free Agents
2 w
#32#38-
    
Andrew SeifterA. Seifter
FantasyPros
2 w
#32#38-
    
2 w
#7#23-
    
Staff RankingsS. Rank...
Fantasy Knuckleheads
2 w
#32#38-
    
Todd D ClarkT. D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
2 w
#32#37-
    
Kevin RobertsK. Roberts
Breaking Football
2 w
#32#37-
    
Kyle RichardsonK. Rich...
The Fantasy Headliners
2 w
#32#69-
    
Jason PetropoulosJ. Petr...
BRoto Fantasy
2 w
#42#25-
    
Patrick ThormanP. Thorman
Establish the Run
2 w
#32#48-
    
Alan HarrisonA. Harr...
The Fantasy Fix
2 w
#54#38-
    
Anthony StaggsA. Staggs
FF Statistics
2 w
#32#37-
    
Mike HarmonM. Harmon
Swollen Dome
2 w
#32#38-
    
Heath CummingsH. Cumm...
CBS Sports
2 w
#42#21-
    
Dennis EsserD. Esser
Coach Esser
2 w
#32#38-
    
Bart WheelerB. Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
2 w
#44#36-
    
Michael HauffM. Hauff
Gridiron Experts
2 w
#32#56-
    
George BankoG. Banko
Fantasy Football Helpers
2 w
#47#28-
    
Husein ShabazzH. Shabazz
SleeperWire
2 w
#41#23-
    
Mundo Fantasy MXM. Fant...
Mundo Fantasy
2 w
#32#38-
    
Mike RandleM. Randle
BettingPros
2 w
#32#56-
    
Sean KoernerS. Koerner
The Action Network
2 w
#15#43-
    
Brad RichterB. Richter
DailyOverlay
2 w
#32#56-
    
Jamey EisenbergJ. Eise...
CBS Sports
2 w
#29#23-
    
Jeff PaurJ. Paur
RTSports
2 w
#32#38-
    
Jake ArthurJ. Arthur
Colts.com
2 w
#32#38-
    
Allie FontanaA. Fontana
Fighting Chance Fantasy
2 w
#32#38-
    
Pat FitzmauriceP. Fitz...
The Football Girl
2 w
#34#35-
    
Mike MonkM. Monk
IDP Monk
3 w
#35#53-
    
Ryan Hodge R. Hodge
ProjectRoto
3 w
#32#38-
    
Jon CollinsJ. Collins
Fantasy Sports LR
3 w
#32#37-
    
Ken ZalisK. Zalis
Pressbox
3 w
#32#37-
    
Site RankingsS. Rank...
FFToday
3 w
#33#47-
    
Wayne BretskyW. Bretsky
BretskyBall
3 w
#32#37-
    
Brendan DonahueB. Donahue
EDSFootball
3 w
#32#38-
    
Armando CrespoA. Crespo
Eat.Sleep.Fantasy
3 w
#22#67-
    
Dave McKayD. McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
3 w
#36#46-
    
Matthew BoweM. Bowe
Razzball
3 w
#35#28-
    
SmittyS.
SleeperU
3 w
#34#28-
    
Ryan SkolrudR. Skolrud
SkullKing Football
3 w
#22#19-
    
Brandon MurchisonB. Murc...
RotoBaller
3 w
#32#37-
    
Dominick PetrilloD. Petr...
Fantasy Hot Read
3 w
#59#60-
    
Mike RigzM. Rigz
Gridiron Experts
3 w
#35#28-
    
Chet GreshamC. Gresham
WalterFootball
3 w
#40#38-
    
Scott EngelS. Engel
RotoBaller
3 w
#41#20-
    
Jason SablichJ. Sablich
5th Down Fantasy
3 w
#32#38-
    
Chris MeaneyC. Meaney
The Athletic
3 w
#22#19-
    
Des BielerD. Bieler
The Washington Post
3 w
#32#38-
    
Craig PhillipsC. Phil...
FF Prophet
3 w
#32#37-
    
Walton SpurlinW. Spurlin
FantasyPros
3 w
#32#37-
    
Kyle AugustK. August
FF Fellas
3 w
#32#37-
    
Matt CampM. Camp
Bleacher Report
3 w
#51#36-
    
Anthony AmicoA. Amico
DraftKings
3 w
#65#38-
    
Walter CherepinskyW. Cher...
WalterFootball
3 w
#14#38-
    
Dynasty GuruD. Guru
The Dynasty Guru
3 w
#32#38-
    
Eric MoodyE. Moody
FantasyData
4 w
#32#38-
    
Mark RossM. Ross
Athlon Sports
4 w
#34#27-
    
Nate HamiltonN. Hami...
Fantrax
4 w
#54#48-
    
Blake FincherB. Fincher
Fantasy Football Cafe
4 w
#32#38-
    
Michael BellerM. Beller
The Athletic
4 w
#63#38-
    
Mike AlexanderM. Alex...
Friends With Fantasy Benefits
08/21
#32#37-
    
Scott WhitfieldS. Whit...
Roto Rankings
4 w
#32#38-
    
J.P. ScottJ. Scott
Athlon Sports
08/16
#21#22-
    
Zach GreubelZ. Greubel
Gridiron Experts
08/14
#35#23-
    
Derek BrownD. Brown
The Quant Edge
06/01
#47#19-
    
David FucilloD. Fucillo
SB Nation
05/08
#22#53-
    
Nick VertucciN. Vert...
Sundays Are For Football
01/31
#26#19-
    
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI
Zach Ertz
2019 Schedule 
Week 1 at JAC vs. WAS
Week 2 at OAK at ATL
Week 3 vs. BAL vs. DET
Week 4 at DET at GB
Week 5 vs. IND vs. NYJ
Week 6 vs. HOU at MIN
Week 7 at DEN at DAL
Week 8 vs. GB at BUF
Week 9 vs. MIN vs. CHI
Week 10 at TENBYE WEEK
Week 11 at LAC vs. NE
Week 12BYE WEEK vs. SEA
Week 13 vs. OAK at MIA
Week 14 at NE vs. NYG
Week 15 vs. DEN at WAS
Week 16 at CHI vs. DAL
Week 17 vs. LAC at NYG
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI
Zach Ertz
2018 Points 
Week 128.34.8
Week 238.89.4
Week 325.37.3
Week 422.911.2
Week 515.817.0
Week 627.010.3
Week 732.813.8
Week 826.08.6
Week 926.8
Week 1020.126.5
Week 1135.91.5
Week 1215.1
Week 1333.08.3
Week 1420.83.8
Week 1518.02.2
Week 1628.223.0
Week 1717.31.5
  Patrick Mahomes
QB - KC
Patrick Mahomes
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI
Zach Ertz
Expert 
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
Yes, Mahomes is coming off the best fantasy season of all time for a quarterback. Yes, he's going to have some regression. He threw a touchdown on 8.6 percent of his passes in 2018, the seventh-highest mark of all-time. Here's the list of quarterbacks who are ahead of them, included with their touchdown rate in that season, as well as the following season: Peyton Manning (9.9 to 6.2), Ken Stabler (9.3 to 6.8), Deshaun Watson (9.3 to 5.1), Aaron Rodgers (9.0 to 7.1), Tom Brady (8.7 to 5.0), Mark Rypien (8.7 to 4.6). Don't pay for last year's statsWith new additions of DeSean Jackson, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Miles Sanders, you have to wonder if Ertz loses of his (tight end) record of 156 targets he saw in 2018. You also have Dallas Goedert coming into his second season after an impressive rookie campaign. Still, it's rare to find a tight end who can average 8-10 targets per game, making Ertz worthy of a pick in the top three rounds
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
I won't actually be investing an early round pick on a QB, but Mahomes remains the guy if you plan on doing so.Ertz is my preferred PPR option at tight end, but has less scoring upside than Kelce. He's my 1B to K elce's 1B, though, so you can't really go wrong.
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
Fantasy owners don't need a reminder of just how dynamic Mahomes was last year, as he threw for over 5,000 yards with 50 touchdowns. There will be regression, simply because there has to be, but he has plenty of room to regress and still finish with elite numbers and as the top fantasy quarterback in the game. Waiting on quarterback is always the right play. But with Tyreek Hill back in the fold, there's no doubt that Mahomes should be the top one off the board.Ertz saw a preposterous 156 targets last year, which led to 116 catches for 1,163 yards and eight touchdowns. He almost certainly will see a meaningful drop in targets this year with the addition of DeSean Jackson and with a healthy Darren Sproles. But he can give away plenty of targets and still finish as an easy top-three tight end. Draft him with confidence early.
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
Depending on the format, he was typically 4-5 FAN PTS better per week than the No. 2 overall fantasy QB - sure, regression is bound to happen, but don't expect too much - special talent, great system, ample weaponsCareer-high targets in '18 was 40+ more than his previous best - with Jeffery healthy, the backfield much improved, D-Jax now in the mix and backup TE Goedert pushing for more time, Ertz could revert back to previous target levels
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
Overall QB1. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to be too cute. 
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
In terms of raw fantasy points, Mahomes broke the historical quarterback record, but when you compare him to the QB13, or above replacement value, he was merely 20th of all-time. While that is still great, of course, it was driven by an astronomical and unsustainable touchdown rate. Regress that to the expected mean and there is no reason you should be considering him in the 2nd, let alone 1st round. If he drops to the late 3rd, however, that would be a strong value.Ertz was spectacular again last season, even outscoring George Kittle in his record-breaking season. There is no doubt that Ertz will produce as long as he stays on the field, and especially with Carson Wentz back. With that said, it seems unlikely that Kittle will catch just 5 touchdowns this season with Jimmy G throwing passes so for now, Ertz sits at the end of that first tier of tight ends.
Derek Lofland
FantasyPros
Mahomes did score 417 fantasy points last year, but quarterbacks rarely duplicate historic seasons. I think Mahomes will have a great year, but I do not think he reaches 417 fantasy points again.Ertz had another monster season at tight end with 1,163 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns. He can be counted on to be one of the best tight ends in the NFL in 2019.
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
The #1 QB in True Throw Value last season, Mahomes (unsurprisingly) had the most valuable throw of any QB last season. Even with regression, he can still be a top-3 QB. However, he's being taken too early in drafts.Ertz saw 156 targets last season but the Eagles added Arcega-Whiteside, DJax, Sanders, and Howard. Geodert also has another year in the system and is expected to have a larger role. - In the first 8 games last season Ertz had ONE game with less than 8 targets - In the final 8 games, Ertz had FIVE games with 8 or less targets - The three years before last he had 112, 106, and 110 targets, 75, 78, and 74 catches, and 853, 816, and 824 yards, respectively. It's unlikely he matches last season's numbers so his ADP is too high for my taste. He will definitely provide solid and reliable numbers though.
Kyle Yates
The Fantasy Footballers
Without Tyreek Hill, it's hard to imagine 5,000 yards and 50 Touchdowns again from Patrick Mahomes. With that being said, he's still projected to be my Top QB this season and he should be the first QB off the board in fantasy drafts.Ertz put up unreal reception numbers last season and showed everyone that he's a fantasy force to be reckoned with. However, the Eagles added other weapons this offseason, which could take away some of Ertz's overall target numbers. With that being said, there's no reason to expect a drastic drop-off in production. Ertz is a safe pick at the TE position and should be the next player off the board after Travis Kelce.
Nick Zylak
Fantasy Football Advice
My exact ranking on Mahomes is going to depend on whether or not Hill is suspended. If he is, then I don't see how you can draft Mahomes. If he isn't, then his ADP is likely to rise to a point where you can's draft him. So either way, it's a no for me. I understand that he just posted over 5,000 yards and 50 TD's. But I also know that he just had one of the best years ever in terms of passing TD percentage...and that he's likely to see at least a little regression in that category. But the main reason for not drafting him is the opportunity cost. He's the top ranked QB this season...no one is going to deny that. But this season has the single deepest QB pool in the history of the NFL. There are around 25 QB's that you can make the case for starting in a 12 team league. Will all of them pan out? Of course not. But there are going to be QB's going in the 12th round and later that finish within a point per game of the top tier. It's just not worth spending such a high pick at a position where there are so many elite options going at the end of drafts. And this is especially true if Hill were to miss any number of games.Julie Ertz's husband set the single season record for receptions by a TE last year. That's the sort of upside he brings to the table. This season, I expect him to regress a bit on those numbers. DeSean Jackson was brought in, and I expect him to command at least a small target share. Alshon also appeared in just 13 games, and Dallas was a rookie TE. Assuming Alshon remains healthy, and Goedert sees the sophomore TE bump, Zach is going to see less targets. He's still an elite option, but he's absolutely behind Kelce for the top TE, and I have him behind Kittle as well. My current projection has him with 96/950/6. That sort of stat line makes him a good pick in the mid third round. Unfortunately, he's been routinely going in the late second. That's a bit too early for me.