Who Should I Draft?

Tyreek Hill or Mike Evans

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Mike Evans
WR - TB
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
 
 
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Recommended by
98 of 112 experts
13%
Recommended by
14 of 112 experts
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 9# 14-
Best Rank# 6# 6-
Worst Rank# 22# 29-
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total132.1164.2-
Avg Game8.810.9-
Avg Projection153.3149.5-
    
Schedule 
    
SOS Rank1832-
    
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Injury Alert-
    
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Mike EvansTyreek HillAdd Player
    
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04/05
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  Mike Evans
WR - TB
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
2018 Schedule 
Week 1 at NO at LAC
Week 2 vs. PHI at PIT
Week 3 vs. PIT vs. SF
Week 4 at CHI at DEN
Week 5BYE WEEK vs. JAC
Week 6 at ATL at NE
Week 7 vs. CLE vs. CIN
Week 8 at CIN vs. DEN
Week 9 at CAR at CLE
Week 10 vs. WAS vs. ARI
Week 11 at NYG at LAR
Week 12 vs. SFBYE WEEK
Week 13 vs. CAR at OAK
Week 14 vs. NO vs. BAL
Week 15 at BAL vs. LAC
Week 16 at DAL at SEA
Week 17 vs. ATL vs. OAK
  Mike Evans
WR - TB
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Receiving
   
Receptions80.575.5
Rec Yards1,122.8995.0
Rec TDs6.96.0
   
Rushing
   
Rush Attempts0.015.5
Rush Yards0.093.5
Rush TDs0.00.9
   
Points
   
Fantasy Points153.3149.5
   
  Mike Evans
WR - TB
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
2017 Points 
Week 119.8
Week 215.34.9
Week 36.715.0
Week 412.73.5
Week 54.96.8
Week 615.52.5
Week 714.819.2
Week 86.01.8
Week 91.313.3
Week 10
Week 119.28.4
Week 127.85.4
Week 133.330.5
Week 142.57.5
Week 1513.914.8
Week 1610.710.8
Week 177.5
  Mike Evans
WR - TB
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
2017 Targets 
Week 18
Week 296
Week 3128
Week 4116
Week 586
Week 687
Week 7108
Week 8106
Week 964
Week 10
Week 11107
Week 121211
Week 1369
Week 1456
Week 1586
Week 1687
Week 1713
  Mike Evans
WR - TB
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC
Tyreek Hill
Expert 
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
As far as power-forward WR types go, you'd be hard pressed to find a better specimen than Evans - look at last season (71-1001-5) as his floor and '16 (96-1321-12) as something close to his ceiling - I'm comfortable splitting that difference hereIf you want to worry about new additions (WR Watkins) or big-play sustainability, that's your prerogative. I will happily take any discount you want to give me for the biggest home-run threat in the game
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
Anyone who drafted Evans last year has a bad taste in their mouth, though we've always said that touchdowns are the hardest thing to predict, even when you're 6-foot-5 and 231 pounds. Evans now has two 12 touchdown seasons under his belt, but the other two netted a combined eight touchdowns. Still, he's now produced 1,000 yards in each of his four seasons, which is something you need to value. If Jameis Winston takes a step forward in his career, Evans could be right back in the first-round conversation next year. The suspension to Winston for the first three weeks might turn out to be okay, because if you recall, Ryan Fitzpatrick produced two top-20 wide receivers with the Jets just a couple years ago in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. It's clear that Tyreek Hill is among the most efficient wide receivers in the game, as his 11.3 yards per target in 2017 ranked first in the league among those with 70 or more targets. Not just that, but the closest player to him was Marvin Jones at 10.3 YPT (a whopping 9 percent difference). That number came up quite a bit from his 2016 total that was at 7.1 yards per target, so you might want to dial back those large expectations. The addition of Sammy Watkins isn't going to help him gain a higher target share, either, as they paid Watkins a generous $50 million. As high as you might be on Pat Mahomes, it's going to be incredibly hard for him to top Alex Smith's MVP-caliber 2017 season. There's regression coming for Hill, but his price does not reflect that. If you can snag him in the fourth-round, that's when you should feel okay with the risk.
Staff Rankings
QB List
Sitting atop the 3rd tier of my rankings is the Bucaneers' undisputed #1 receiver, Mike Evans. Typically thought of as a top 10 wideout, I have Evans in my fourth tier for a plethora of red flags which point to his down 2017 as more indicative of his 2018 than some might think. Evans sports a 52.2 % catch rate, good for 87th among wideouts. While a great deal of this poor catch rate might be due to poor quarterback play, this year looks no better in that department as he'll be catching passes from Harvard's resident genius Ryan Fitzpatrick, and embattled (former?) franchise quarterback Jameis Winston. Even if we decide to ignore that, he remains in an offense anchored by a subpar O-line and featuring several accessory pieces with established target shares and a young tight end in O.J. Howard poised for an expanded role in his sophomore season. You'll enjoy the highlight catches Evans can and will make, but know his upside is crippled due to the subpar team surrounding him.The fastest man in fantasy, Tyreek Hill paid handsomely those who drafted him, recording nearly 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns while adding in a punt return touchdown and some rushing yards from trick plays. Why then is Hill stuck at #14 on the rankings you ask? Two reasons: there's a new sheriff in Kansas City named Patrick Mahomes, and Brett Veach (the Chiefs GM, and yes I had to look it up) is coocoo for Cocoa Puffs. To go alongside the speedy Hill, Veach spent $48 million for three years of the perennially overrated Sammy Watkins. So not only does Hill now have to worry about forming a report with the rookie Mahomes, but he'll have Watkins and Chris Conley chomping at his heels for the targets that resident mad-man Travis Kelce doesn't get. Know the upside is real, but draft accordingly.
Chet Gresham
WalterFootball
Evans has now gone through a great season, a poor season, a great season again and then a poor season again. If the pattern holds, then we get a great season in 2018! Of course, that's not how this works, but we know what he can do and we know he's stayed relatively healthy and will continue to see good target numbers. His floor isn't as high as I'd like, but his ceiling is.Hill had plenty of doubters coming into last season, but he proved that he could take on the role of a No. 1 receiver and thrive. He'll have Pat Mahomes as his quarterback this season, so there will be some more doubt cast on this upcoming season, but even if there are some major learning curves, Mahomes looks good enough to keep Hill as a strong fantasy receiver.
Jody Smith
FantasyPros
Strong rebound target, Evans is being undervalued due to his disappointing 2017 that still resulted in 136 targets in 15 games and 1,000+ yards.  
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
Jameis Winston's three-game suspension doesn't pose a major problem for Evans, who caught 14 of 30 targets for 265 yards and a TD in three full games with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yet an inefficient WR20 season still sparks concern regardless of Tampa Bay's signal-caller. He barely exceeded 1,000 yards (1,001) for the fourth time in as many years, but posted an underwhelming 52.9 catch % and five TDs. While high volume-especially his nine looks inside the 10 that yielded one score-should yield a bounce-back, 2016's 96 catches is now the clear outlier in a career catalog with no other 75-catch output. Hill handled more volume than anticipated with 75 receptions for 1,183 yards and seven TDs. Yet each score stretched at least 30 yards, as he vanished inside the red zone with two touches. Patrick Mahomes has the arm to make more deep magic, but he won't match Alex Smith's precision. Sammy Watkins will also threaten Hill's pedestrian 19.3 % target share, so don't touch the 5'10" playmaker at his bloated No. 29 overall ADP.
Kevin Wheeler
NFL Mock
I think he comes back to WR1 form, but the Winston suspension will slow his start. Last year, Tyreek Hill (WR8) became the ONLY receiver since 2000 to finish as a fantasy WR1 (top-12) while seeing fewer than 20% of team targets and fewer than 10% of red-zone targets in his WR1 single-season. @GrahamBarfield He's very good, but he also had as many red zone targets as Virgil Green last year. All of his touchdowns were 30+ yards. Incredibly hard to sustain what he did last year, let alone with another able pass-catcher in the offense now. @LateRoundQB Small, but fast as lightening in an offensive scheme that fits his athleticism. He benefits greatly from the addition of Watkins pulling away any shut-down corners. At 24 years old he should be able to hold value for many years.
Derek Lofland
Fantasy Football Maniax
Evans had only 71 receptions for 1,001 yards and 5 touchdowns, but he is an elite talent and he should rebound next year. The likely 3-game suspension of QB Jameis Winston hurts his value early in the year, but he should still be in the high WR2 to low WR1 mix. Hill had a breakout year in his second season averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game. He could be even better if the Chiefs go with QB Patrick Mahomes II. While Mahomes II has little experience, he has a much stronger arm than QB Alex Smith and that could help Hill be an even better deep threat.
Nick Zylak
Fantasy Football Advice
Jameis Winston is suspended for the first 3 games of the season. That's the first reason I have Mike Evans ranked as a WR 2 this season. The second is how difficult their schedule is. They face one of the hardest schedules of passing defenses in the league. When you add to that the amount of weapons that offense has (speaking in terms of total numbers) you get a guy who needs to win on efficiency in order to pay off. That's not something Evans has showed us he can do. I'm staying away this season and I suggest you do the same. 
Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
He's taking a massive hit in the first three weeks and his long-term outlook isn't overly appealing for 2018Hill can take any touch to the house but Watkins being added and a big QB change could complicate matters
Seth McKinley
FF Fellas
 High risk, high reward
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
Evans has managed 1,000+ yards each of his first four seasons, but he was just the WR20 in 2017. With Winston out the first three weeks, Evans' stock drops a little, but he is still a WR1 who can be targeted at the end of second rounds.Last season, Tyreek broke out for 1,183 yards and 7 TDs, but he didn't catch a single red-zone TD. That can't last. Add in Sammy Watkins and downgrade from QB and we are looking at a major drop off in production from season to season.
Raju Byfield
Win My Fantasy League
Gigantic upside but showed that he has a lower floor than the receivers listed above himWatkins will undoubtedly eat up some of his target share but the Chiefs promise to be much more explosive in 2018