Khalil Herbert Fantasy Football Outlook (2023)

By Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Fri, Sep 1st 2023, 10:35am EDT

Khalil Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery's flat 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely usurped Montgomery as the team's lead back.

In the two games that Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, the Bears second-year rusher averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert also has just had as many career games (4) as Montgomery with at least 90 rushing yards.

With Monty leaving in free agency, the rebuilding Bears let him walk and added D'Onta Foreman to join the backfield. Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season.

Foreman and Herbert earned nearly identical rushing EPA per attempt last year (inside the top 15). Fantasy managers might be best off taking the cheaper of the two in drafts because there may not be a true No. 1 rusher in the Windy City unless there's an injury. If the Bears are as run-heavy as they were last season, there's a chance that both can return value, but keep in mind that Justin Fields' own rushing will take away volume chances from both backs.

Fantasy managers also have to consider 4th-round rookie draft selection, Roschon Johnson. Johnson's efficient rushing style, bell-cow size and pass-protection props figure to complicate the Bears backfield into a potential three-headed monster.