David Montgomery Fantasy Football Outlook (2023)

By Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Fri, Sep 1st 2023, 10:35am EDT

David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions this offseason, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery's 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging just 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th.
And with the new addition of 12th overall draft pick, Jahmyr Gibbs, it's hard to envision Montgomery as anything more than a fantasy RB2/RB3 with the highly coveted goal-line role likely his main path to appealing fantasy production. Keep in mind that last season, Jamaal Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line en route to an RB12 fantasy finish and a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns.

A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will supplement solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' role from 2022 - 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game - and Montgomery's contract suggests the team will be featuring enough (likely as a rusher on early downs) to be fantasy viable alongside Gibbs.