Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Football Outlook (2023)
By Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Wed, May 3rd 2023, 5:56pm EDT
Jahmyr Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24% dominator rating as the team's RB1 alongside future NFL running back, Jordan Mason. In both his years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs finished second in PFF receiving grade. However, he elected to not stay at GT for his junior year and instead transferred to Alabama to be the Crimson Tide's next RB1. He led Alabama with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching a team-leading 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. Gibbs finished third in the FBS in receiving yards, one year removed from leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards (470). He also flashed his explosiveness by ending the year fifth in the class in PFF's breakaway run rate (53%).
At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role. But he more than makes up for it with his receiving and speed. And the Detroit Lions hardly seem concerned about his size, considering they selected him 12th overall in the NFL Draft. The draft capital alone mitigates any workload concerns for Gibbs based on his somewhat smaller frame. Detroit paid a premium, and that means he is going to get his touches (likely high value in the form of receptions) regardless of what the team paid David Montgomery during free agency.
Last season ex-Lions and newly acquired Eagles running back D'Andre Swift was uber-efficient on a per-touch basis: fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift (10.3) and Jamaal Williams (16.1) combined for 26.4 touches per game. Even with a projected 50-50 split, Gibbs is looking at a 224-touch workload. With a 55% split, Gibbs is flirting with nearly 250 total touches over a 17-game season. Simply put, the former Alabama running back needs to be ranked as back-end RB1.