Nico Collins Week 13 Outlook - Broncos at Texans

By Derek Brown (FantasyPros), Thu, Nov 30th 2023, 1:05pm EST

In the seven games this season that Collins and Dell have been full-time players, Collins has had a 21.0% target share, a 25.7% air-yard share, 3.05 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Collins has seven red zone targets over his last four games. Since Week 7, Denver has utilized single-high on 56.8% of their defensive snaps. In those seven games against single-high, Collins has had a 22.3% target share, a 24.2% air-yard share, 4.40 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share (ted with Dell). The biggest issue for Collins is that he will likely see shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain this week. Collins has been a boundary receiver all season, with only one game with higher than a 26.9% slot rate. Surtain has only rolled into the slot for 19 snaps this season, so it should be easy for Surtain (62.7% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating) to stay with him. Surtain has seven games this season in which he has followed the opposing team's top receiver for at least 57.7% of their routes. The list of receivers is insane. Surtain has shadowed Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson, D.J. Moore, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. Only Hill and Moore surpassed 40 receiving yards in primary coverage with Surtain, and none of them scored touchdowns while shadowed by Surtain. Downgrade Collins this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3