Brian Thomas Jr. Week 1 Outlook - Browns at Jaguars

By Derek Brown (FantasyPros), Sun, Sep 13th 2026, 12:44pm EDT

Brian Thomas Jr. was one of the biggest busts of the 2025 season. He dealt with a high ankle sprain and a shoulder issue and never looked like the player we all loved during his rookie season. Once Thomas Jr. was "healthy" and Jakobi Meyers was on the roster, Thomas was relegated to a field-stretching role. In Weeks 13-18, he had only two top-24 outings in weekly scoring (WR15, WR23) with a 14.9% target share (18.1 aDOT), 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.65 yards per route run, three red zone targets, and a 20.6% first-read share. If Thomas Jr. is going to have a bounce-back campaign, I don't think it starts in Week 1. Last year, when Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward were on the field together as full-time players, the Cleveland pass defense was a shutdown unit against perimeter wide receivers. In their eight games together, the Browns' pass defense allowed only 1.43 fantasy points per target and 7.24 yards per target to perimeter wide receivers. Over the entire season, those would have been the third-lowest marks in each category in the NFL. In that sample, Cleveland was also elite at defending against deep passing, giving up only a 31% completion rate and a 73.1 passer rating. Over the entire season, those would have ranked as sixth-best and seventh-best against deep passing.