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Touchdown Regression Report

2024 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

2024 Touchdown Regression Report | Fantasy Football Half PPR Scoring | Running Backs | FantasyPros
 
Actual
Adjusted
 
Player (Team)
GAMES
RecTD%
RuTD%
PTS.
RANK
RecTD%
RuTD%
PTS.
ADJ. RANK
RANK DIFF
Saquon Barkley (PHI)164.65%3.77%338.814.33%3.39%330.11 0
Derrick Henry (BAL)169.09%4.92%297.827.10%4.18%280.72 0
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)166.35%6.40%293.434.94%5.17%269.74-1
Bijan Robinson (ATL)161.39%4.61%280.941.50%4.05%271.13 +1
Josh Jacobs (GB)162.33%4.98%264.052.72%4.55%257.15 0
Kyren Williams (LAR)165.00%4.43%255.164.98%4.10%248.86 0
De'Von Achane (MIA)166.90%2.96%242.875.54%3.42%241.47 0
James Cook (BUF)155.26%7.73%241.984.02%6.02%217.814-6
Alvin Kamara (NO)142.25%2.63%231.391.78%2.75%230.48 +1
James Conner (ARI)161.82%3.39%230.3102.08%3.33%230.310 0
Chase Brown (CIN)166.06%3.06%228.0115.72%3.33%230.49 +2
Chuba Hubbard (CAR)151.85%4.00%220.1122.43%4.10%223.511 +1
Joe Mixon (HOU)131.92%4.47%219.2133.19%4.13%218.113 0
Jonathan Taylor (IND)133.13%3.63%211.2142.52%3.57%209.016-2
Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN)163.23%1.96%206.1154.55%2.55%220.112 +3
Bucky Irving (TB)160.00%3.85%205.5161.92%3.74%210.215 +1
David Montgomery (DET)140.00%6.49%203.7170.60%5.84%197.917 0
Breece Hall (NYJ)153.90%2.38%195.7183.39%2.30%192.318 0
D'Andre Swift (CHI)160.00%2.37%181.0190.30%2.40%182.419 0
Rachaad White (TB)1510.53%2.08%174.1207.76%2.67%169.722-2
Tony Pollard (TEN)150.00%1.92%174.0210.57%1.85%174.821 0
Najee Harris (LAC)160.00%2.28%173.0220.65%2.68%181.220 +2
J.K. Dobbins 120.00%4.62%166.8231.12%3.76%159.325-2
Rico Dowdle (CAR)156.12%0.85%162.9244.96%1.28%165.623 +1
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)152.44%3.38%159.4253.75%3.38%162.724 +1
Kenneth Walker III (SEA)111.89%4.58%158.2262.10%4.21%155.527-1
Zach Charbonnet (SEA)161.92%5.88%156.8271.25%5.25%149.629-2
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG)161.89%2.60%155.7282.10%2.26%152.428 0
Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)130.00%4.28%147.7291.13%4.22%148.730-1
Kareem Hunt (KC)130.00%3.50%143.9304.27%3.99%158.026 +4
Javonte Williams (DAL)160.00%2.88%122.6310.69%3.35%129.531 0
Jerome Ford (CLE)140.00%2.88%115.5320.31%2.47%113.734-2
Tank Bigsby (JAC)150.00%4.17%114.8330.35%4.00%113.435-2
Alexander Mattison (MIA)132.04%3.03%114.3341.74%3.55%117.633 +1
Austin Ekeler (WAS)110.00%5.19%110.6350.89%4.75%110.737-2
Jordan Mason (MIN)120.00%1.96%109.5361.71%2.88%119.332 +4
Justice Hill (BAL)155.77%2.13%106.1374.16%2.05%100.940-3
Ameer Abdullah 166.38%3.03%105.2385.43%3.39%103.939-1
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)140.00%1.33%103.2391.08%1.79%110.738 +1
Jaylen Warren (PIT)140.00%0.83%103.0401.15%1.59%111.736 +4
Tyjae Spears (TEN)122.86%4.76%98.6412.24%3.79%92.442-1
Ray Davis (BUF)1615.79%2.65%94.14210.74%2.44%86.944-2
Tyler Allgeier (ATL)160.00%2.19%91.8430.79%2.62%95.941 +2
Isaac Guerendo (SF)150.00%4.76%86.2440.55%4.21%83.945-1
Devin Singletary (NYG)150.00%3.54%83.9450.31%3.09%81.346-1
Antonio Gibson (NE)160.00%0.83%83.8460.61%1.35%88.643 +3
Ty Johnson (BUF)1612.00%2.44%80.9478.35%2.79%76.348-1
Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)157.41%0.88%79.4485.49%1.47%80.247 +1
Cam Akers 1516.67%1.92%78.34912.09%2.14%74.750-1
Emanuel Wilson (GB)167.14%3.88%76.9504.69%3.41%71.951-1
Braelon Allen (NYJ)163.70%2.17%72.4512.34%2.07%69.652-1
Zack Moss (CIN)93.70%2.70%70.4523.26%4.02%75.549 +3
Roschon Johnson (CHI)120.00%10.91%65.0530.66%9.09%59.856-3
Sean Tucker (TB)168.33%4.00%62.6544.46%3.57%58.557-3
Gus Edwards 110.00%3.96%62.6550.25%3.86%62.154 +1
Raheem Mostert (LV)120.00%2.35%61.4560.67%2.77%64.453 +3
Nick Chubb 89.09%2.94%60.8577.17%3.17%60.955 +2
Jeremy McNichols (WAS)160.00%7.27%59.3581.17%5.29%53.660-2
Ezekiel Elliott 150.00%4.05%51.5590.81%3.91%51.661-2
Isiah Pacheco (KC)70.00%1.20%50.9601.98%1.75%55.559 +1
Kenneth Gainwell (PIT)160.00%1.33%49.3611.13%2.40%55.658 +3
Trey Sermon 160.00%3.57%44.8621.02%4.71%49.862 0
Trey Benson (ARI)130.00%1.59%44.0630.35%1.40%43.465-2
Dare Ogunbowale (HOU)163.57%0.00%43.2645.19%0.70%47.263 +1
Christian McCaffrey (SF)40.00%0.00%40.3651.65%0.79%44.564 +1
Miles Sanders (DAL)103.33%3.64%40.2662.40%3.02%36.567-1
Tyler Goodson (IND)156.67%3.13%37.9675.57%2.97%36.666 +1
Isaiah Davis (NYJ)138.33%3.33%37.3687.18%2.13%34.371-3
Audric Estime (DEN)120.00%2.63%36.8690.16%2.33%35.568 +1
Cordarrelle Patterson (PIT)127.14%0.00%31.4705.01%0.89%31.373-3
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS)70.00%5.71%31.0711.56%5.32%30.376-5
Chris Brooks (GB)120.00%2.78%30.8721.46%2.69%31.772 0
Kimani Vidal (LAC)911.11%0.00%30.2736.25%0.51%28.978-5
Jamaal Williams 130.00%2.08%29.9740.85%2.23%30.975-1
Pierre Strong Jr. (CLE)130.00%0.00%28.2750.62%0.26%29.477-2
Blake Corum (LAR)140.00%0.00%27.3760.14%2.06%34.570 +6
D'Ernest Johnson 120.00%0.00%26.8771.23%1.44%31.074 +3
Kendre Miller (NO)70.00%2.56%26.6780.39%1.71%24.883-5
Zamir White (LV)80.00%1.54%26.3790.56%1.93%28.179 0
Jaylen Wright (MIA)140.00%0.00%25.6802.28%0.38%28.080 0
D'Onta Foreman 100.00%0.00%25.6810.35%2.17%35.069 +12
Ty Chandler (MIN)150.00%0.00%25.4821.28%0.54%27.782 0
Sincere McCormick (LV)40.00%0.00%24.2831.17%1.38%27.981 +2
Hassan Haskins (LAC)1433.33%5.88%22.08417.05%8.33%24.184 0
Dameon Pierce (HOU)100.00%5.00%18.9850.99%3.04%14.491-6
Carson Steele (KC)150.00%0.00%16.7861.37%1.85%23.885 +1
Michael Carter (ARI)30.00%2.86%16.4871.23%3.58%18.787 0
Kenny McIntosh (SEA)110.00%0.00%16.0880.14%0.39%16.889-1
Patrick Taylor Jr. (SF)80.00%2.56%15.7890.80%3.51%18.488 +1
Craig Reynolds (DET)130.00%0.00%15.5900.42%0.37%16.390 0
Khalil Herbert (IND)120.00%2.78%14.7912.33%4.08%19.186 +5
Will Shipley (PHI)120.00%0.00%5.0923.96%0.40%6.792 0

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