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Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
Actual |
Adjusted |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 16 | 4.65% | 3.77% | 338.8 | 1 | 4.33% | 3.39% | 330.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 9.09% | 4.92% | 297.8 | 2 | 7.10% | 4.18% | 280.7 | 2 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 16 | 6.35% | 6.40% | 293.4 | 3 | 4.94% | 5.17% | 269.7 | 4 | -1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 1.39% | 4.61% | 280.9 | 4 | 1.50% | 4.05% | 271.1 | 3 | +1 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 16 | 2.33% | 4.98% | 264.0 | 5 | 2.72% | 4.55% | 257.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 16 | 5.00% | 4.43% | 255.1 | 6 | 4.98% | 4.10% | 248.8 | 6 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 16 | 6.90% | 2.96% | 242.8 | 7 | 5.54% | 3.42% | 241.4 | 7 | 0 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 15 | 5.26% | 7.73% | 241.9 | 8 | 4.02% | 6.02% | 217.8 | 14 | -6 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 14 | 2.25% | 2.63% | 231.3 | 9 | 1.78% | 2.75% | 230.4 | 8 | +1 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 16 | 1.82% | 3.39% | 230.3 | 10 | 2.08% | 3.33% | 230.3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 16 | 6.06% | 3.06% | 228.0 | 11 | 5.72% | 3.33% | 230.4 | 9 | +2 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 15 | 1.85% | 4.00% | 220.1 | 12 | 2.43% | 4.10% | 223.5 | 11 | +1 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 13 | 1.92% | 4.47% | 219.2 | 13 | 3.19% | 4.13% | 218.1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 13 | 3.13% | 3.63% | 211.2 | 14 | 2.52% | 3.57% | 209.0 | 16 | -2 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN) | 16 | 3.23% | 1.96% | 206.1 | 15 | 4.55% | 2.55% | 220.1 | 12 | +3 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 205.5 | 16 | 1.92% | 3.74% | 210.2 | 15 | +1 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 14 | 0.00% | 6.49% | 203.7 | 17 | 0.60% | 5.84% | 197.9 | 17 | 0 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 15 | 3.90% | 2.38% | 195.7 | 18 | 3.39% | 2.30% | 192.3 | 18 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.37% | 181.0 | 19 | 0.30% | 2.40% | 182.4 | 19 | 0 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 15 | 10.53% | 2.08% | 174.1 | 20 | 7.76% | 2.67% | 169.7 | 22 | -2 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 15 | 0.00% | 1.92% | 174.0 | 21 | 0.57% | 1.85% | 174.8 | 21 | 0 |
| Najee Harris (LAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.28% | 173.0 | 22 | 0.65% | 2.68% | 181.2 | 20 | +2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 12 | 0.00% | 4.62% | 166.8 | 23 | 1.12% | 3.76% | 159.3 | 25 | -2 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 15 | 6.12% | 0.85% | 162.9 | 24 | 4.96% | 1.28% | 165.6 | 23 | +1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 15 | 2.44% | 3.38% | 159.4 | 25 | 3.75% | 3.38% | 162.7 | 24 | +1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 11 | 1.89% | 4.58% | 158.2 | 26 | 2.10% | 4.21% | 155.5 | 27 | -1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 16 | 1.92% | 5.88% | 156.8 | 27 | 1.25% | 5.25% | 149.6 | 29 | -2 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 16 | 1.89% | 2.60% | 155.7 | 28 | 2.10% | 2.26% | 152.4 | 28 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 13 | 0.00% | 4.28% | 147.7 | 29 | 1.13% | 4.22% | 148.7 | 30 | -1 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 13 | 0.00% | 3.50% | 143.9 | 30 | 4.27% | 3.99% | 158.0 | 26 | +4 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.88% | 122.6 | 31 | 0.69% | 3.35% | 129.5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.88% | 115.5 | 32 | 0.31% | 2.47% | 113.7 | 34 | -2 |
| Tank Bigsby (JAC) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.17% | 114.8 | 33 | 0.35% | 4.00% | 113.4 | 35 | -2 |
| Alexander Mattison (MIA) | 13 | 2.04% | 3.03% | 114.3 | 34 | 1.74% | 3.55% | 117.6 | 33 | +1 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 11 | 0.00% | 5.19% | 110.6 | 35 | 0.89% | 4.75% | 110.7 | 37 | -2 |
| Jordan Mason (MIN) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.96% | 109.5 | 36 | 1.71% | 2.88% | 119.3 | 32 | +4 |
| Justice Hill (BAL) | 15 | 5.77% | 2.13% | 106.1 | 37 | 4.16% | 2.05% | 100.9 | 40 | -3 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 16 | 6.38% | 3.03% | 105.2 | 38 | 5.43% | 3.39% | 103.9 | 39 | -1 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 14 | 0.00% | 1.33% | 103.2 | 39 | 1.08% | 1.79% | 110.7 | 38 | +1 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.83% | 103.0 | 40 | 1.15% | 1.59% | 111.7 | 36 | +4 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 12 | 2.86% | 4.76% | 98.6 | 41 | 2.24% | 3.79% | 92.4 | 42 | -1 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 16 | 15.79% | 2.65% | 94.1 | 42 | 10.74% | 2.44% | 86.9 | 44 | -2 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.19% | 91.8 | 43 | 0.79% | 2.62% | 95.9 | 41 | +2 |
| Isaac Guerendo (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.76% | 86.2 | 44 | 0.55% | 4.21% | 83.9 | 45 | -1 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.54% | 83.9 | 45 | 0.31% | 3.09% | 81.3 | 46 | -1 |
| Antonio Gibson (NE) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.83% | 83.8 | 46 | 0.61% | 1.35% | 88.6 | 43 | +3 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 16 | 12.00% | 2.44% | 80.9 | 47 | 8.35% | 2.79% | 76.3 | 48 | -1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 15 | 7.41% | 0.88% | 79.4 | 48 | 5.49% | 1.47% | 80.2 | 47 | +1 |
| Cam Akers | 15 | 16.67% | 1.92% | 78.3 | 49 | 12.09% | 2.14% | 74.7 | 50 | -1 |
| Emanuel Wilson (GB) | 16 | 7.14% | 3.88% | 76.9 | 50 | 4.69% | 3.41% | 71.9 | 51 | -1 |
| Braelon Allen (NYJ) | 16 | 3.70% | 2.17% | 72.4 | 51 | 2.34% | 2.07% | 69.6 | 52 | -1 |
| Zack Moss (CIN) | 9 | 3.70% | 2.70% | 70.4 | 52 | 3.26% | 4.02% | 75.5 | 49 | +3 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 10.91% | 65.0 | 53 | 0.66% | 9.09% | 59.8 | 56 | -3 |
| Sean Tucker (TB) | 16 | 8.33% | 4.00% | 62.6 | 54 | 4.46% | 3.57% | 58.5 | 57 | -3 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 0.00% | 3.96% | 62.6 | 55 | 0.25% | 3.86% | 62.1 | 54 | +1 |
| Raheem Mostert (LV) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.35% | 61.4 | 56 | 0.67% | 2.77% | 64.4 | 53 | +3 |
| Nick Chubb | 8 | 9.09% | 2.94% | 60.8 | 57 | 7.17% | 3.17% | 60.9 | 55 | +2 |
| Jeremy McNichols (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 7.27% | 59.3 | 58 | 1.17% | 5.29% | 53.6 | 60 | -2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 0.00% | 4.05% | 51.5 | 59 | 0.81% | 3.91% | 51.6 | 61 | -2 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 7 | 0.00% | 1.20% | 50.9 | 60 | 1.98% | 1.75% | 55.5 | 59 | +1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.33% | 49.3 | 61 | 1.13% | 2.40% | 55.6 | 58 | +3 |
| Trey Sermon | 16 | 0.00% | 3.57% | 44.8 | 62 | 1.02% | 4.71% | 49.8 | 62 | 0 |
| Trey Benson (ARI) | 13 | 0.00% | 1.59% | 44.0 | 63 | 0.35% | 1.40% | 43.4 | 65 | -2 |
| Dare Ogunbowale (HOU) | 16 | 3.57% | 0.00% | 43.2 | 64 | 5.19% | 0.70% | 47.2 | 63 | +1 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 40.3 | 65 | 1.65% | 0.79% | 44.5 | 64 | +1 |
| Miles Sanders (DAL) | 10 | 3.33% | 3.64% | 40.2 | 66 | 2.40% | 3.02% | 36.5 | 67 | -1 |
| Tyler Goodson (IND) | 15 | 6.67% | 3.13% | 37.9 | 67 | 5.57% | 2.97% | 36.6 | 66 | +1 |
| Isaiah Davis (NYJ) | 13 | 8.33% | 3.33% | 37.3 | 68 | 7.18% | 2.13% | 34.3 | 71 | -3 |
| Audric Estime (DEN) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.63% | 36.8 | 69 | 0.16% | 2.33% | 35.5 | 68 | +1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson (PIT) | 12 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 31.4 | 70 | 5.01% | 0.89% | 31.3 | 73 | -3 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) | 7 | 0.00% | 5.71% | 31.0 | 71 | 1.56% | 5.32% | 30.3 | 76 | -5 |
| Chris Brooks (GB) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 30.8 | 72 | 1.46% | 2.69% | 31.7 | 72 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC) | 9 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 30.2 | 73 | 6.25% | 0.51% | 28.9 | 78 | -5 |
| Jamaal Williams | 13 | 0.00% | 2.08% | 29.9 | 74 | 0.85% | 2.23% | 30.9 | 75 | -1 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. (CLE) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 28.2 | 75 | 0.62% | 0.26% | 29.4 | 77 | -2 |
| Blake Corum (LAR) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 27.3 | 76 | 0.14% | 2.06% | 34.5 | 70 | +6 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 26.8 | 77 | 1.23% | 1.44% | 31.0 | 74 | +3 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 26.6 | 78 | 0.39% | 1.71% | 24.8 | 83 | -5 |
| Zamir White (LV) | 8 | 0.00% | 1.54% | 26.3 | 79 | 0.56% | 1.93% | 28.1 | 79 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright (MIA) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.6 | 80 | 2.28% | 0.38% | 28.0 | 80 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.6 | 81 | 0.35% | 2.17% | 35.0 | 69 | +12 |
| Ty Chandler (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.4 | 82 | 1.28% | 0.54% | 27.7 | 82 | 0 |
| Sincere McCormick (LV) | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.2 | 83 | 1.17% | 1.38% | 27.9 | 81 | +2 |
| Hassan Haskins (LAC) | 14 | 33.33% | 5.88% | 22.0 | 84 | 17.05% | 8.33% | 24.1 | 84 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce (HOU) | 10 | 0.00% | 5.00% | 18.9 | 85 | 0.99% | 3.04% | 14.4 | 91 | -6 |
| Carson Steele (KC) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.7 | 86 | 1.37% | 1.85% | 23.8 | 85 | +1 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 3 | 0.00% | 2.86% | 16.4 | 87 | 1.23% | 3.58% | 18.7 | 87 | 0 |
| Kenny McIntosh (SEA) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.0 | 88 | 0.14% | 0.39% | 16.8 | 89 | -1 |
| Patrick Taylor Jr. (SF) | 8 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 15.7 | 89 | 0.80% | 3.51% | 18.4 | 88 | +1 |
| Craig Reynolds (DET) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.5 | 90 | 0.42% | 0.37% | 16.3 | 90 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert (IND) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 14.7 | 91 | 2.33% | 4.08% | 19.1 | 86 | +5 |
| Will Shipley (PHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.0 | 92 | 3.96% | 0.40% | 6.7 | 92 | 0 |
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