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Touchdown Regression Report

2021 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 163.77%5.42%342.112.55%5.25%334.81 0
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 158.51%5.83%282.425.82%5.18%259.32 0
Joe Mixon (CIN) 166.25%4.45%266.935.31%3.80%252.84-1
Najee Harris (PIT) 163.19%2.28%256.243.44%2.26%257.23 +1
Leonard Fournette (TB) 142.38%4.44%221.153.28%4.50%226.35 0
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 163.08%4.22%219.164.10%3.77%216.76 0
James Conner (ARI) 147.69%7.43%214.974.64%6.15%192.211-4
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) 157.25%3.92%206.985.08%3.58%194.810-2
Aaron Jones (GB) 159.23%2.34%203.097.09%2.80%199.47 +2
Nick Chubb (CLE) 134.00%3.51%198.8103.23%3.37%195.79 +1
Alvin Kamara (NO) 127.46%1.67%194.0115.63%2.32%196.18 +3
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 155.77%2.71%186.5124.80%3.25%191.812 0
Damien Harris (NE) 140.00%7.39%185.8131.03%6.04%170.719-6
Derrick Henry (TEN) 80.00%4.57%184.3140.75%3.71%174.017-3
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 120.00%2.41%180.6150.57%3.04%191.613 +2
Josh Jacobs (LV) 140.00%4.15%177.6161.18%3.87%178.515 +1
Javonte Williams (DEN) 165.66%1.97%176.0174.24%2.60%179.214 +3
Darrel Williams (ARI) 163.51%4.17%166.3184.14%4.68%172.918 0
David Montgomery (CHI) 130.00%3.11%166.1191.74%3.38%175.216 +3
D'Andre Swift (DET) 122.56%3.31%165.3202.49%2.97%161.921-1
Melvin Gordon III (KC) 155.13%3.94%165.1214.02%3.72%159.822-1
AJ Dillon (GB) 165.41%2.67%161.4224.13%3.26%165.120 +2
James Robinson (NYJ) 140.00%4.88%158.4230.47%4.20%153.023 0
Devin Singletary (BUF) 162.00%3.72%153.6242.75%3.44%152.724 0
Darrell Henderson Jr. 127.50%3.36%148.9256.45%3.47%147.426-1
Elijah Mitchell (SF) 115.00%2.42%147.0263.52%2.19%142.528-2
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 166.35%1.73%146.6275.31%2.53%151.025 +2
Tony Pollard (DAL) 150.00%1.54%143.1281.09%1.57%146.427 +1
Michael Carter (NYJ) 130.00%2.72%134.5290.81%3.21%141.529 0
Sony Michel 163.03%1.92%130.4302.81%2.50%137.230 0
Devonta Freeman 152.38%3.76%125.9313.18%3.40%125.132-1
Chase Edmonds (DEN) 120.00%1.72%121.8321.18%2.41%130.431 +1
Saquon Barkley (NYG) 133.51%1.23%121.7332.46%1.37%119.434-1
Devontae Booker 152.22%1.38%120.5342.09%1.82%124.033 +1
Mike Davis 161.72%2.17%115.9352.42%2.28%119.235 0
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) 152.70%2.91%112.5363.09%2.55%109.739-3
Christian McCaffrey (SF) 72.44%1.01%109.0371.84%1.84%112.437 0
Alexander Mattison (MIN) 152.56%2.24%107.3383.23%2.59%111.738 0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 108.70%3.36%107.0396.31%2.68%98.845-6
J.D. McKissic (WAS) 113.77%4.17%106.4403.04%3.84%103.142-2
Miles Sanders (PHI) 120.00%0.00%104.2410.98%1.42%117.936 +5
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) 110.00%3.76%103.8421.70%3.44%103.143-1
Jamaal Williams (DET) 120.00%1.96%101.1430.36%2.24%104.341 +2
Ty Johnson (NYJ) 143.64%3.28%100.1442.56%4.17%99.844 0
Kareem Hunt (CLE) 80.00%6.41%99.0451.17%4.94%94.046-1
Mark Ingram II (NO) 140.00%1.25%95.1461.31%2.05%105.540 +6
Rashaad Penny (SEA) 90.00%5.04%93.7470.44%3.77%84.851-4
Boston Scott (PHI) 110.00%8.05%92.1482.23%7.39%90.848 0
Zack Moss (IND) 123.13%4.17%91.3493.58%4.23%92.547 +2
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) 152.00%7.35%90.2502.57%5.35%83.755-5
Nyheim Hines (BUF) 161.75%3.57%89.7511.93%2.41%86.450 +1
Kenyan Drake (BAL) 122.50%3.17%87.5522.14%2.54%84.253-1
Brandon Bolden (LV) 154.08%2.27%84.0533.63%2.72%83.854-1
Rex Burkhead (HOU) 140.00%2.46%83.7541.15%3.05%90.249 +5
D'Onta Foreman (CAR) 80.00%2.26%80.5551.40%2.64%84.552 +3
Latavius Murray (DEN) 130.00%5.04%77.6563.08%4.19%73.957-1
D'Ernest Johnson (CLE) 120.00%3.00%74.8570.52%2.67%73.658-1
Ronald Jones II (KC) 150.00%3.96%74.2581.91%3.51%72.959-1
Justin Jackson (DET) 130.00%2.94%73.2591.49%3.16%76.356 +3
Khalil Herbert (CHI) 150.00%1.94%70.8601.06%2.01%72.360 0
Samaje Perine (CIN) 153.23%1.82%69.7613.26%1.23%67.861 0
Alex Collins 110.00%1.85%64.3620.28%2.16%66.563-1
Jordan Howard 70.00%3.49%61.5630.60%4.47%66.762 +1
David Johnson (NO) 122.38%0.00%60.2643.24%0.53%64.564 0
Jeremy McNichols (PIT) 132.63%0.00%59.6652.79%1.09%62.665 0
Ameer Abdullah (LV) 161.89%0.00%57.8662.21%1.03%62.066 0
Dontrell Hilliard (TEN) 70.00%3.57%56.9671.69%2.53%56.068-1
DeeJay Dallas (SEA) 160.00%6.06%49.5680.46%4.78%47.671-3
Derrick Gore (NO) 70.00%3.92%49.1691.60%3.30%48.170-1
Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) 80.00%2.53%48.0704.73%2.75%51.369 +1
Jaret Patterson (WAS) 130.00%2.94%46.4710.50%2.23%43.874-3
Tevin Coleman (SF) 100.00%0.00%45.4723.02%1.95%58.167 +5
Chris Carson 40.00%5.56%45.1730.26%3.97%40.175-2
Peyton Barber 100.00%3.64%44.9741.20%3.55%45.672 +2
Damien Williams 114.35%5.00%41.9752.94%5.00%39.976-1
Carlos Hyde 120.00%1.39%39.8760.45%2.34%44.573 +3
Phillip Lindsay 1320.00%1.14%39.47715.36%1.42%39.577 0
Matt Breida (NYG) 722.22%3.85%39.27813.34%2.66%32.583-5
Duke Johnson Jr. 40.00%4.23%38.4790.06%3.73%36.379 0
Ty'Son Williams (ARI) 70.00%2.86%37.0801.82%2.54%37.778 +2
Dare Ogunbowale (HOU) 124.76%2.33%36.6814.70%2.20%36.280 +1
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) 110.00%0.00%32.6820.94%0.42%35.082 0
Craig Reynolds (DET) 40.00%0.00%31.5830.87%1.12%35.681 +2
Royce Freeman (HOU) 110.00%0.00%29.6840.27%0.72%32.384 0
Le'Veon Bell 714.29%5.13%27.68511.15%4.66%25.287-2
Trey Sermon (PHI) 60.00%2.44%26.8860.79%1.91%25.786 0
Adrian Peterson 40.00%5.26%24.6875.86%5.80%27.285 +2
Ke'Shawn Vaughn (TB) 50.00%5.56%23.5882.18%4.08%21.489-1
Malcolm Brown (LAR) 60.00%3.03%21.0891.55%4.57%24.588 +1
Austin Walter (LV) 40.00%3.85%18.0900.04%4.17%18.591-1
Eno Benjamin (NO) 70.00%2.94%17.4910.87%1.99%15.894-3
Tony Jones Jr. (SEA) 90.00%0.00%17.4922.01%0.74%20.890 +2
Larry Rountree III (LAC) 100.00%2.78%15.1930.31%3.24%16.193 0
Joshua Kelley (LAC) 80.00%0.00%14.5940.74%1.80%18.392 +2
Wayne Gallman Jr. 90.00%0.00%13.0950.30%0.24%13.595 0
Marlon Mack (DEN) 60.00%0.00%11.9960.11%0.44%12.796 0
Benny Snell Jr. (PIT) 150.00%0.00%9.9970.26%0.42%10.997 0
Corey Clement (ARI) 1014.29%0.00%9.99810.54%0.53%9.498 0