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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Alvin Kamara (NO) 154.67%8.56%336.313.94%6.73%311.12-1
Derrick Henry (TEN) 160.00%4.50%323.620.74%3.92%311.81 +1
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 141.85%5.13%315.831.51%4.86%309.63 0
David Montgomery (CHI) 152.94%3.24%237.843.40%3.44%242.64 0
Aaron Jones (GB) 143.17%4.48%235.453.86%3.96%231.85 0
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 152.44%4.74%234.862.67%4.47%231.66 0
James Robinson (JAC) 145.00%2.92%225.973.70%2.50%215.39-2
Josh Jacobs (LV) 150.00%4.40%214.880.91%4.51%219.27 +1
Nick Chubb (CLE) 120.00%6.32%199.791.26%5.11%187.312-3
Kareem Hunt (CLE) 169.80%3.03%199.5107.01%3.49%196.410 0
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 152.74%2.46%197.7112.27%3.88%216.58 +3
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 140.00%6.47%184.2120.95%5.30%174.814-2
Melvin Gordon III (DEN) 152.27%4.19%182.4132.29%3.42%172.615-2
Kenyan Drake (LV) 150.00%4.18%179.7140.63%4.68%188.011 +3
Mike Davis (ATL) 152.86%3.64%177.0153.30%4.01%182.513 +2
Ronald Jones II (TB) 142.38%3.65%172.3162.88%3.52%172.116 0
Chris Carson (SEA) 128.70%3.55%169.3176.25%3.35%160.920-3
D'Andre Swift (DET) 133.51%7.02%166.8183.26%6.05%159.321-3
David Johnson (HOU) 124.35%4.08%163.0195.46%4.05%165.818 +1
Nyheim Hines (IND) 165.19%3.37%161.7204.29%4.30%162.519 +1
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) 150.00%6.72%159.5211.53%5.37%150.927-6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 131.82%2.21%158.0222.77%2.68%166.217 +5
Miles Sanders (PHI) 120.00%3.66%156.4230.44%3.60%157.222 +1
J.D. McKissic (WAS) 161.82%1.18%151.4241.93%1.85%155.623 +1
Todd Gurley II 150.00%4.62%150.7250.39%4.88%154.624 +1
James Conner (ARI) 130.00%3.55%147.1261.95%3.53%151.926 0
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 104.26%2.11%143.7273.89%3.48%154.325 +2
Chase Edmonds (ARI) 165.88%1.03%141.5284.95%1.37%139.729-1
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 103.08%0.86%138.3293.27%1.52%143.728 +1
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) 1210.71%5.56%135.8307.88%4.76%125.034-4
Giovani Bernard (TB) 165.08%2.42%134.6314.44%2.74%134.730 +1
Wayne Gallman Jr. (ATL) 150.00%4.08%126.1320.96%3.81%125.333-1
Latavius Murray (BAL) 153.85%2.74%124.7333.42%2.50%121.937-4
Devin Singletary (BUF) 160.00%1.28%124.6341.21%1.92%134.331 +3
Gus Edwards (BAL) 160.00%4.17%123.7351.16%4.13%124.435 0
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR) 154.17%3.62%122.3363.75%4.21%126.632 +4
Adrian Peterson 160.00%4.49%118.5371.02%4.80%122.536 +1
Leonard Fournette (TB) 130.00%6.19%114.0381.87%5.58%115.739-1
Jamaal Williams (DET) 142.86%1.68%111.6393.20%2.62%119.138 +1
Jerick McKinnon (KC) 152.17%6.17%109.7402.62%4.78%104.241-1
Tony Pollard (DAL) 162.50%3.96%106.8413.08%3.08%102.842-1
Malcolm Brown (MIA) 160.00%4.95%97.6421.25%4.88%99.744-2
Cam Akers (LAR) 127.14%1.38%96.3437.15%2.82%108.840 +3
Rex Burkhead (HOU) 109.09%4.48%95.1446.43%4.28%89.050-6
Zack Moss (BUF) 135.56%3.57%94.6455.63%4.50%100.943 +2
Frank Gore 150.00%1.07%92.2460.70%1.63%99.345 +1
James White (NE) 141.61%5.71%92.1471.96%4.06%89.948-1
Raheem Mostert (SF) 85.26%1.92%91.7483.01%2.50%92.746 +2
Joe Mixon (CIN) 63.85%2.52%89.1493.46%2.66%89.549 0
Damien Harris (NE) 100.00%1.46%88.8500.74%1.88%92.647 +3
Boston Scott (PHI) 162.78%1.25%83.1513.08%1.68%85.853-2
Brian Hill 160.00%1.00%82.9520.88%1.33%86.551 +1
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 35.26%8.47%81.8533.83%6.51%73.259-6
Alexander Mattison (MIN) 136.67%2.08%80.4543.66%3.21%84.254 0
Kalen Ballage (PIT) 110.00%3.30%79.4550.77%4.24%86.252 +3
Devontae Booker (NYG) 160.00%3.23%77.2562.15%2.41%75.357-1
Carlos Hyde (JAC) 100.00%4.94%76.9570.74%4.26%74.558-1
Sony Michel (LAR) 811.11%1.27%71.8585.73%1.71%71.061-3
Duke Johnson Jr. 112.86%1.30%70.4593.64%1.32%72.260-1
Benny Snell Jr. (PIT) 150.00%3.60%69.9604.21%5.04%83.055 +5
Joshua Kelley (LAC) 130.00%1.80%69.7611.12%2.88%78.556 +5
Le'Veon Bell (BAL) 110.00%2.44%66.6622.06%2.56%69.762 0
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) 60.00%4.00%63.5630.93%4.19%65.164-1
Phillip Lindsay (HOU) 110.00%0.85%62.5640.90%1.20%65.863 +1
Kerryon Johnson (SF) 153.85%3.85%62.3653.02%3.76%60.865 0
Samaje Perine (CIN) 160.00%4.76%60.2662.14%4.37%60.266 0
Justin Jackson (LAC) 80.00%0.00%55.8670.22%0.41%57.668-1
Jordan Wilkins (IND) 140.00%1.19%55.3681.32%1.51%58.267 +1
Ty Johnson (NYJ) 124.76%1.85%55.3692.94%2.86%56.369 0
Peyton Barber (LV) 150.00%4.26%53.0700.09%4.61%55.070 0
Mark Ingram II (HOU) 110.00%2.78%49.9711.17%2.62%49.873-2
Ito Smith 140.00%1.56%48.8723.21%1.67%54.271 +1
DeeJay Dallas (SEA) 105.00%5.88%48.4734.61%6.98%50.272 +1
Dion Lewis 163.33%6.90%47.7743.17%6.08%46.074 0
La'Mical Perine (NYJ) 100.00%3.13%47.0750.72%2.56%45.576-1
Darrel Williams (KC) 150.00%2.56%45.5761.47%1.76%45.975 +1
AJ Dillon (GB) 110.00%4.35%39.3771.53%2.77%35.180-3
Alfred Morris (NYG) 925.00%1.82%39.27815.52%1.71%36.679-1
Jeremy McNichols (TEN) 150.00%2.13%37.9792.68%2.25%41.077 +2
Matt Breida (BUF) 110.00%0.00%37.5800.46%0.63%40.078 +2
Josh Adams (NYJ) 80.00%6.90%33.6810.15%6.64%33.283-2
Devonta Freeman (BAL) 50.00%1.85%32.5823.00%1.85%34.381 +1
Rodney Smith (CAR) 70.00%2.44%32.0830.36%2.39%32.184-1
Royce Freeman (CAR) 120.00%0.00%31.1841.38%1.00%34.382 +2
Jordan Howard (PHI) 70.00%11.43%30.2850.15%11.31%30.085 0
Darwin Thompson (TB) 99.09%3.70%29.7866.29%3.03%26.888-2
JaMycal Hasty (SF) 80.00%2.56%27.6870.36%3.24%29.386 +1
Dare Ogunbowale (JAC) 130.00%0.00%24.9880.32%0.97%27.287 +1
Ke'Shawn Vaughn (TB) 810.00%0.00%20.8897.60%0.72%20.591-2
Anthony McFarland Jr. (PIT) 110.00%0.00%19.7900.43%0.41%20.889 +1
D'Ernest Johnson (CLE) 150.00%0.00%19.5912.65%0.25%20.690 +1
Trayveon Williams (CIN) 70.00%0.00%19.2920.96%0.26%19.992 0
DeAndre Washington 40.00%0.00%14.6930.92%2.41%19.693 0
Tevin Coleman (NYJ) 70.00%0.00%10.7941.29%1.22%13.194 0