Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 16 | 6.51% | 0.00% | 242.9 | 1 | 6.09% | 0.00% | 238.6 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) | 16 | 4.24% | 0.00% | 158.0 | 2 | 3.86% | 0.00% | 155.3 | 3 | -1 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 15 | 13.41% | 0.00% | 155.1 | 3 | 10.50% | 0.00% | 140.8 | 7 | -4 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 16 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 152.5 | 4 | 4.37% | 18.06% | 151.9 | 4 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | 16 | 5.56% | 14.29% | 150.4 | 5 | 4.48% | 10.17% | 141.7 | 6 | -1 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 16 | 7.84% | 0.00% | 146.1 | 6 | 7.94% | 3.85% | 146.9 | 5 | +1 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 16 | 3.57% | 16.67% | 145.4 | 7 | 4.99% | 17.96% | 155.4 | 2 | +5 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 12 | 8.14% | 0.00% | 144.2 | 8 | 6.98% | 0.00% | 138.2 | 9 | -1 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 16 | 8.05% | 0.00% | 140.7 | 9 | 8.00% | 0.00% | 140.5 | 8 | +1 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 16 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 135.8 | 10 | 2.65% | 0.00% | 134.0 | 10 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 10 | 10.14% | 0.00% | 127.6 | 11 | 8.04% | 3.13% | 119.1 | 12 | -1 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 16 | 2.83% | 0.00% | 127.4 | 12 | 3.48% | 0.00% | 131.5 | 11 | +1 |
| AJ Barner (SEA) | 16 | 8.82% | 10.00% | 118.9 | 13 | 7.35% | 7.91% | 111.6 | 14 | -1 |
| Colston Loveland (CHI) | 15 | 7.32% | 0.00% | 116.0 | 14 | 6.65% | 3.57% | 112.9 | 13 | +1 |
| Theo Johnson (NYG) | 15 | 6.76% | 0.00% | 105.3 | 15 | 6.39% | 0.00% | 103.7 | 17 | -2 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 16 | 7.14% | 10.00% | 104.6 | 16 | 7.72% | 12.06% | 108.3 | 15 | +1 |
| Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) | 14 | 4.35% | 0.00% | 103.6 | 17 | 5.12% | 0.00% | 106.8 | 16 | +1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 13 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 101.4 | 18 | 4.89% | 0.00% | 98.5 | 18 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 8 | 13.64% | 0.00% | 101.2 | 19 | 9.92% | 0.00% | 91.4 | 21 | -2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 11 | 10.20% | 0.00% | 100.3 | 20 | 7.58% | 0.00% | 92.6 | 20 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 2.53% | 0.00% | 94.8 | 21 | 2.43% | 0.00% | 94.3 | 19 | +2 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 14 | 14.29% | 0.00% | 90.7 | 22 | 12.32% | 0.00% | 84.1 | 23 | -1 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 15 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 87.3 | 23 | 4.76% | 3.57% | 88.4 | 22 | +1 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 9 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 86.9 | 24 | 5.12% | 0.00% | 83.9 | 24 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 86.5 | 25 | 6.19% | 0.00% | 82.6 | 25 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange (JAC) | 11 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 80.8 | 26 | 4.83% | 0.00% | 80.2 | 26 | 0 |
| Darren Waller (MIA) | 9 | 17.65% | 0.00% | 76.7 | 27 | 12.54% | 0.00% | 66.3 | 33 | -6 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 16 | 8.16% | 0.00% | 76.3 | 28 | 8.73% | 0.00% | 78.0 | 27 | +1 |
| Jake Tonges (SF) | 16 | 10.87% | 0.00% | 76.3 | 29 | 8.91% | 0.00% | 70.9 | 31 | -2 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 15 | 1.23% | 0.00% | 73.8 | 30 | 1.75% | 0.00% | 76.3 | 28 | +2 |
| Evan Engram (DEN) | 15 | 1.32% | 0.00% | 71.8 | 31 | 2.18% | 0.00% | 75.7 | 29 | +2 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 12 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 69.8 | 32 | 6.79% | 0.00% | 65.3 | 34 | -2 |
| Gunnar Helm (TEN) | 16 | 3.64% | 0.00% | 69.7 | 33 | 4.03% | 0.00% | 71.0 | 30 | +3 |
| Mason Taylor (NYJ) | 13 | 1.54% | 0.00% | 66.9 | 34 | 2.56% | 0.00% | 70.9 | 32 | +2 |
| Jonnu Smith (PIT) | 16 | 3.70% | 11.11% | 65.3 | 35 | 4.23% | 7.16% | 64.9 | 35 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 15 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 59.1 | 36 | 3.88% | 0.00% | 58.3 | 37 | -1 |
| Noah Fant (CIN) | 14 | 7.32% | 0.00% | 58.8 | 37 | 6.18% | 0.00% | 56.0 | 39 | -2 |
| Darnell Washington (PIT) | 16 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 57.9 | 38 | 4.65% | 0.00% | 63.9 | 36 | +2 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 12 | 4.76% | 0.00% | 54.4 | 39 | 5.54% | 0.00% | 56.4 | 38 | +1 |
| Davis Allen (LAR) | 16 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 50.8 | 40 | 8.76% | 0.00% | 50.1 | 41 | -1 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 12 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 50.1 | 41 | 2.96% | 0.00% | 53.0 | 40 | +1 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 15 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 47.8 | 42 | 7.85% | 0.00% | 48.0 | 43 | -1 |
| Greg Dulcich (MIA) | 9 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 45.2 | 43 | 3.81% | 18.06% | 47.8 | 44 | -1 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 13 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 44.0 | 44 | 4.75% | 0.00% | 48.6 | 42 | +2 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 9 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 41.0 | 45 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 39.6 | 47 | -2 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) | 13 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 39.5 | 46 | 4.91% | 0.00% | 43.5 | 45 | +1 |
| Daniel Bellinger (NYG) | 15 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 39.3 | 47 | 6.18% | 0.00% | 36.9 | 50 | -3 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 39.1 | 48 | 4.70% | 0.00% | 37.5 | 49 | -1 |
| Elijah Higgins (ARI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.8 | 49 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 43.5 | 46 | +3 |
| Luke Musgrave (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 37.2 | 50 | 0.78% | 0.00% | 38.6 | 48 | +2 |
| Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ) | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 35.4 | 51 | 4.11% | 0.00% | 36.6 | 51 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo (SEA) | 13 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 29.4 | 52 | 5.01% | 0.00% | 31.2 | 52 | 0 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.8 | 53 | 1.35% | 0.00% | 26.8 | 53 | 0 |
