Touchdown Regression Report
2022 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 16 | 7.89% | 0.00% | 254.5 | 1 | 7.85% | 22.76% | 256.8 | 1 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 16 | 4.65% | 0.00% | 170.3 | 2 | 4.85% | 0.00% | 171.8 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 15 | 4.42% | 0.00% | 154.0 | 3 | 4.72% | 1.19% | 156.2 | 3 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 14 | 12.79% | 0.00% | 153.6 | 4 | 9.81% | 0.00% | 138.2 | 4 | 0 |
| Evan Engram (JAC) | 16 | 4.08% | 0.00% | 135.7 | 5 | 3.59% | 8.33% | 133.8 | 5 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 14 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 116.7 | 6 | 3.01% | 0.00% | 122.4 | 6 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 15 | 10.77% | 0.00% | 111.2 | 7 | 7.73% | 0.00% | 99.4 | 13 | -6 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 15 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 110.7 | 8 | 4.15% | 0.00% | 119.6 | 7 | +1 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 14 | 5.62% | 0.00% | 108.9 | 9 | 5.73% | 0.00% | 109.5 | 8 | +1 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 16 | 10.14% | 0.00% | 108.6 | 10 | 7.40% | 0.00% | 97.2 | 14 | -4 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 11 | 4.35% | 0.00% | 106.1 | 11 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 105.2 | 11 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 14 | 9.23% | 0.00% | 103.4 | 12 | 7.58% | 0.00% | 96.9 | 15 | -3 |
| Gerald Everett (LAC) | 14 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 102.2 | 13 | 5.42% | 0.00% | 106.8 | 9 | +4 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 13 | 4.94% | 0.00% | 100.8 | 14 | 6.14% | 0.00% | 106.6 | 10 | +4 |
| Tyler Conklin (NYJ) | 16 | 3.41% | 0.00% | 100.2 | 15 | 3.04% | 14.42% | 100.0 | 12 | +3 |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 16 | 6.35% | 0.00% | 93.6 | 16 | 5.89% | 0.00% | 91.9 | 17 | -1 |
| Zach Ertz (ARI) | 10 | 5.80% | 0.00% | 92.1 | 17 | 6.85% | 0.00% | 96.5 | 16 | +1 |
| Robert Tonyan (CHI) | 16 | 2.99% | 0.00% | 81.1 | 18 | 3.00% | 0.00% | 81.2 | 19 | -1 |
| Hayden Hurst (CAR) | 13 | 2.82% | 0.00% | 79.5 | 19 | 3.83% | 0.00% | 83.8 | 18 | +1 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 15 | 3.39% | 0.00% | 76.2 | 20 | 3.63% | 0.00% | 77.0 | 21 | -1 |
| Mike Gesicki (NE) | 16 | 9.62% | 0.00% | 75.6 | 21 | 9.46% | 0.00% | 75.1 | 22 | -1 |
| Jordan Akins (CLE) | 14 | 9.26% | 0.00% | 75.0 | 22 | 7.38% | 0.00% | 68.9 | 25 | -3 |
| Austin Hooper (LV) | 16 | 3.28% | 0.00% | 71.1 | 23 | 3.31% | 0.00% | 71.2 | 23 | 0 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 15 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 71.1 | 24 | 5.28% | 0.00% | 79.7 | 20 | +4 |
| Will Dissly (SEA) | 15 | 7.89% | 0.00% | 69.9 | 25 | 5.73% | 0.00% | 65.0 | 29 | -4 |
| Greg Dulcich (DEN) | 10 | 3.64% | 0.00% | 69.6 | 26 | 2.49% | 0.00% | 65.8 | 28 | -2 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) | 15 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 69.5 | 27 | 5.20% | 1.11% | 66.1 | 27 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 13 | 3.64% | 0.00% | 67.2 | 28 | 3.89% | 0.00% | 68.0 | 26 | +2 |
| Darren Waller (NYG) | 8 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 66.3 | 29 | 7.98% | 0.00% | 69.4 | 24 | +5 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 10 | 3.39% | 0.00% | 61.6 | 30 | 3.63% | 0.00% | 62.4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods (IND) | 11 | 7.50% | 0.00% | 60.3 | 31 | 6.36% | 0.00% | 57.6 | 33 | -2 |
| Daniel Bellinger (NYG) | 11 | 5.71% | 100.00% | 60.0 | 32 | 4.87% | 78.85% | 57.0 | 34 | -2 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 13 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 59.0 | 33 | 5.52% | 0.00% | 60.9 | 32 | +1 |
| Logan Thomas (WAS) | 12 | 1.64% | 0.00% | 55.2 | 34 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 61.4 | 31 | +3 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 16 | 2.94% | 100.00% | 54.1 | 35 | 3.67% | 78.85% | 54.3 | 35 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson (SEA) | 13 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 51.0 | 36 | 5.42% | 0.00% | 50.0 | 36 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah (NYJ) | 14 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 45.7 | 37 | 5.18% | 0.00% | 42.1 | 41 | -4 |
| Kylen Granson (IND) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 45.7 | 38 | 0.81% | 0.00% | 47.6 | 38 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant (CLE) | 13 | 2.38% | 0.00% | 43.2 | 39 | 4.40% | 0.00% | 48.3 | 37 | +2 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 14 | 9.38% | 0.00% | 42.2 | 40 | 9.64% | 0.00% | 42.7 | 40 | 0 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 11 | 2.50% | 0.00% | 41.4 | 41 | 2.50% | 0.00% | 41.4 | 42 | -1 |
| Irv Smith Jr. (CIN) | 7 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 39.8 | 42 | 6.26% | 0.00% | 41.3 | 43 | -1 |
| Jonnu Smith (ATL) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.5 | 43 | 1.91% | 0.00% | 43.0 | 39 | +4 |
| Mo Alie-Cox (IND) | 13 | 10.34% | 0.00% | 37.5 | 44 | 8.94% | 0.00% | 35.1 | 44 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas (CAR) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.2 | 45 | 0.98% | 0.00% | 32.0 | 46 | -1 |
| Cameron Brate | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 27.4 | 46 | 2.39% | 0.00% | 32.9 | 45 | +1 |
| Brevin Jordan (HOU) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.8 | 47 | 0.97% | 0.00% | 21.4 | 47 | 0 |
