Touchdown Regression Report
2023 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 16 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 184.9 | 1 | 6.57% | 0.00% | 172.2 | 3 | -2 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 15 | 4.13% | 0.00% | 172.9 | 2 | 4.91% | 0.00% | 178.5 | 1 | +1 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 15 | 3.94% | 0.00% | 171.5 | 3 | 4.22% | 0.00% | 173.6 | 2 | +1 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 16 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 170.7 | 4 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 163.9 | 4 | 0 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 160.7 | 5 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 162.6 | 5 | 0 |
| Evan Engram (JAC) | 16 | 2.80% | 0.00% | 154.4 | 6 | 2.90% | 0.00% | 155.3 | 6 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 16 | 6.59% | 0.00% | 139.0 | 7 | 5.92% | 7.83% | 136.7 | 8 | -1 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 16 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 131.7 | 8 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 141.7 | 7 | +1 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 16 | 2.83% | 0.00% | 130.1 | 9 | 3.54% | 0.00% | 134.6 | 9 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 15 | 5.00% | 4.94% | 117.1 | 10 | 5.01% | 6.58% | 125.1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 14 | 5.68% | 0.00% | 114.3 | 11 | 5.04% | 0.00% | 110.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 10 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 112.9 | 12 | 8.78% | 3.33% | 109.2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 16 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 107.1 | 13 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 105.0 | 15 | -2 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 13 | 3.61% | 0.00% | 105.9 | 14 | 3.47% | 2.94% | 105.4 | 14 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 15 | 2.20% | 0.00% | 101.9 | 15 | 3.04% | 0.00% | 106.5 | 13 | +2 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 14 | 9.68% | 0.00% | 98.9 | 16 | 6.64% | 0.00% | 87.6 | 19 | -3 |
| Logan Thomas | 15 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 97.9 | 17 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 97.1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 90.0 | 18 | 1.98% | 0.00% | 100.3 | 16 | +2 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 16 | 5.97% | 0.00% | 89.0 | 19 | 5.29% | 0.00% | 86.3 | 23 | -4 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 16 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 88.8 | 20 | 4.74% | 21.21% | 92.0 | 18 | +2 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 15 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 85.0 | 21 | 3.26% | 0.00% | 86.7 | 21 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett (CHI) | 14 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 84.7 | 22 | 4.79% | 0.00% | 86.8 | 20 | +2 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 1.28% | 0.00% | 81.8 | 23 | 2.25% | 0.00% | 86.3 | 22 | +1 |
| Darren Waller (NYG) | 11 | 1.35% | 0.00% | 80.2 | 24 | 1.60% | 0.00% | 81.3 | 24 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 16 | 12.50% | 0.00% | 76.0 | 25 | 8.64% | 0.00% | 66.7 | 26 | -1 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 12 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 73.8 | 26 | 5.78% | 0.00% | 70.3 | 25 | +1 |
| Tanner Hudson (CIN) | 11 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 58.6 | 27 | 1.84% | 0.00% | 58.1 | 30 | -3 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 13 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 58.4 | 28 | 5.46% | 0.00% | 59.5 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 13 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 57.9 | 29 | 4.65% | 0.00% | 57.1 | 33 | -4 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 11 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 57.7 | 30 | 4.07% | 0.00% | 57.2 | 32 | -2 |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 57.4 | 31 | 0.61% | 0.00% | 59.0 | 29 | +2 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 56.6 | 32 | 4.23% | 10.34% | 55.6 | 34 | -2 |
| Luke Musgrave (GB) | 10 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 56.6 | 33 | 2.65% | 0.00% | 57.9 | 31 | +2 |
| Donald Parham Jr. (LAC) | 13 | 9.76% | 0.00% | 55.2 | 34 | 9.55% | 0.00% | 54.7 | 36 | -2 |
| Kylen Granson (IND) | 14 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 55.2 | 35 | 3.46% | 2.50% | 59.7 | 27 | +8 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 16 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 49.9 | 36 | 4.27% | 0.00% | 49.4 | 38 | -2 |
| Durham Smythe (MIA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 49.6 | 37 | 2.26% | 0.00% | 55.4 | 35 | +2 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 46.9 | 38 | 6.92% | 0.00% | 49.0 | 39 | -1 |
| Adam Trautman (DEN) | 16 | 8.57% | 0.00% | 46.8 | 39 | 10.75% | 0.00% | 51.4 | 37 | +2 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 14 | 9.38% | 0.00% | 46.8 | 40 | 7.90% | 0.00% | 44.0 | 40 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 16 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 38.2 | 41 | 7.35% | 0.00% | 38.6 | 43 | -2 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 7 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 38.2 | 42 | 3.60% | 0.00% | 41.5 | 41 | +1 |
| Daniel Bellinger (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.0 | 43 | 0.48% | 0.00% | 38.8 | 42 | +1 |
| Drew Sample (CIN) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 37.6 | 44 | 5.16% | 0.00% | 34.0 | 46 | -2 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 11 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 34.4 | 45 | 7.07% | 0.00% | 37.7 | 44 | +1 |
| Hayden Hurst (LAC) | 10 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 33.4 | 46 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 35.3 | 45 | +1 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.0 | 47 | 1.61% | 0.00% | 33.0 | 47 | 0 |
| Will Mallory (IND) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 29.7 | 48 | 0.47% | 0.00% | 30.4 | 48 | 0 |
| Connor Heyward (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 26.8 | 49 | 1.59% | 0.00% | 30.0 | 50 | -1 |
| John Bates (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.6 | 50 | 3.15% | 0.00% | 30.1 | 49 | +1 |
| Irv Smith Jr. (KC) | 12 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 24.5 | 51 | 5.63% | 0.00% | 27.3 | 51 | 0 |
