Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| George Kittle (SF) | 14 | 8.42% | 0.00% | 193.9 | 1 | 7.82% | 0.00% | 190.4 | 3 | -2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 16 | 3.27% | 0.00% | 193.7 | 2 | 3.67% | 0.00% | 197.4 | 1 | +1 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 15 | 1.36% | 100.00% | 178.3 | 3 | 3.57% | 73.21% | 196.2 | 2 | +1 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 16 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 164.2 | 4 | 6.64% | 4.46% | 161.4 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 16 | 15.94% | 0.00% | 147.9 | 5 | 11.29% | 2.23% | 129.2 | 8 | -3 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 16 | 2.26% | 0.00% | 146.9 | 6 | 3.89% | 23.21% | 161.3 | 5 | +1 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 15 | 8.43% | 0.00% | 134.8 | 7 | 7.79% | 0.00% | 131.6 | 7 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 16 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 132.7 | 8 | 7.80% | 0.00% | 123.5 | 10 | -2 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 16 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 131.5 | 9 | 7.76% | 0.00% | 131.9 | 6 | +3 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 16 | 8.97% | 0.00% | 117.3 | 10 | 6.74% | 0.00% | 106.8 | 13 | -3 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 11 | 5.10% | 0.00% | 116.5 | 11 | 5.39% | 0.00% | 118.2 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 112.4 | 12 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 125.5 | 9 | +3 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 14 | 4.60% | 0.00% | 111.1 | 13 | 5.52% | 0.00% | 115.9 | 12 | +1 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 105.2 | 14 | 5.24% | 0.00% | 104.5 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 16 | 2.41% | 0.00% | 98.2 | 15 | 3.36% | 0.00% | 102.9 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 15 | 10.34% | 0.00% | 97.4 | 16 | 8.87% | 0.00% | 92.3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 16 | 7.27% | 0.00% | 95.6 | 17 | 6.11% | 0.00% | 91.8 | 17 | 0 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 16 | 10.20% | 0.00% | 93.1 | 18 | 8.24% | 2.17% | 87.5 | 20 | -2 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 8 | 0.00% | 15.38% | 91.8 | 19 | 1.09% | 10.65% | 82.8 | 23 | -4 |
| Tyler Conklin (LAC) | 15 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 87.8 | 20 | 5.53% | 0.00% | 87.7 | 19 | +1 |
| Chig Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 2.82% | 0.00% | 87.6 | 21 | 2.62% | 0.00% | 86.8 | 21 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 16 | 2.35% | 0.00% | 87.3 | 22 | 2.52% | 0.00% | 88.2 | 18 | +4 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 16 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 86.8 | 23 | 3.78% | 0.00% | 83.8 | 22 | +1 |
| Foster Moreau (NO) | 16 | 11.63% | 0.00% | 82.2 | 24 | 9.31% | 0.00% | 76.2 | 28 | -4 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 16 | 5.08% | 0.00% | 81.4 | 25 | 4.39% | 0.00% | 78.9 | 26 | -1 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 13 | 2.67% | 0.00% | 78.8 | 26 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 82.3 | 24 | +2 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 9 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 75.1 | 27 | 4.42% | 0.00% | 77.1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 72.7 | 28 | 1.28% | 0.00% | 79.3 | 25 | +3 |
| Will Dissly (LAC) | 14 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 72.4 | 29 | 3.31% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 29 | 0 |
| Evan Engram (DEN) | 9 | 1.56% | 0.00% | 66.0 | 30 | 1.65% | 0.00% | 66.3 | 32 | -2 |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 13 | 1.56% | 0.00% | 65.2 | 31 | 2.09% | 0.00% | 67.2 | 31 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 64.1 | 32 | 1.98% | 0.00% | 71.5 | 30 | +2 |
| Brenton Strange (JAC) | 16 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 63.1 | 33 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 64.2 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 56.0 | 34 | 3.79% | 0.00% | 57.2 | 34 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson (NYG) | 12 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 53.6 | 35 | 2.18% | 0.00% | 53.2 | 37 | -2 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 14 | 10.71% | 0.00% | 52.2 | 36 | 8.05% | 0.00% | 47.7 | 39 | -3 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) | 15 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 51.7 | 37 | 3.95% | 0.00% | 55.9 | 35 | +2 |
| AJ Barner (SEA) | 16 | 10.53% | 0.00% | 51.6 | 38 | 8.76% | 0.00% | 47.6 | 40 | -2 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 49.3 | 39 | 3.75% | 0.00% | 54.3 | 36 | +3 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 16 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 48.1 | 40 | 3.59% | 0.00% | 49.2 | 38 | +2 |
| Grant Calcaterra (PHI) | 16 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 45.8 | 41 | 3.25% | 0.00% | 45.6 | 41 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) | 16 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 41.0 | 42 | 2.32% | 0.00% | 40.0 | 43 | -1 |
| Josh Whyle (TEN) | 16 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 39.4 | 43 | 3.15% | 0.00% | 40.4 | 42 | +1 |
| Johnny Mundt (JAC) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 35.7 | 44 | 6.91% | 0.00% | 34.9 | 44 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 11 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 34.9 | 45 | 5.17% | 0.00% | 32.8 | 45 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson (PHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.0 | 46 | 2.51% | 0.00% | 28.7 | 46 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 22.0 | 47 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 26.3 | 47 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18.5 | 48 | 1.19% | 0.00% | 20.5 | 48 | 0 |
