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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Travis Kelce (KC) 157.53% 0.00% 260.315.80%0.00%244.71 0
Darren Waller (LV) 166.16% 0.00% 225.125.80%0.00%221.52 0
Robert Tonyan (GB) 1618.64% 0.00% 150.635.80%0.00%105.115-12
T.J. Hockenson (DET) 165.94%0.00%141.845.80%10.77%141.64 0
Mark Andrews (BAL) 147.87% 0.00% 141.155.80%0.00%129.77-2
Logan Thomas (WAS) 165.41%0.00%140.665.80%10.77%144.83 +3
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 157.06% 0.00% 132.875.80%0.00%126.48-1
Rob Gronkowski (TB) 169.09% 0.00% 126.885.80%0.00%111.614-6
Hayden Hurst (ATL) 166.82% 0.00% 121.195.80%0.00%115.711-2
Jonnu Smith (NE) 1412.31%50.00%119.7105.80%10.77%89.620-10
Jimmy Graham (CHI) 1610.53% 0.00% 118.6115.80%0.00%97.018-7
Noah Fant (DEN) 153.23% 0.00% 118.3125.80%0.00%132.66 +6
Hunter Henry (NE) 144.30% 0.00% 115.3135.80%0.00%123.69 +4
Dalton Schultz (DAL) 164.49% 0.00% 115.0145.80%0.00%122.010 +4
Eric Ebron (PIT) 155.49% 0.00% 113.8155.80%0.00%115.412 +3
Evan Engram (NYG) 160.92%16.67%109.5165.80%10.77%139.35 +11
Jared Cook (LAC) 1511.67% 0.00% 108.9175.80%0.00%87.821-4
Tyler Higbee (LAR) 158.33%0.00%106.2185.80%10.77%97.717 +1
George Kittle (SF) 83.17%0.00%101.1195.80%10.77%112.313 +6
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 114.62% 0.00% 93.4205.80%0.00%98.016 +4
Austin Hooper (CLE) 135.71% 0.00% 90.5215.80%0.00%90.819 +2
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) 1311.63% 0.00% 83.5225.80%0.00%68.529-7
Dan Arnold (JAC) 168.89% 0.00% 81.3235.80%0.00%73.027-4
Gerald Everett (SEA) 161.61%100.00%72.4245.80%10.77%82.622 +2
Trey Burton 136.38%100.00%69.3255.80%10.77%56.933-8
Darren Fells (DET) 1313.79% 0.00% 65.7265.80%0.00%51.440-14
Jordan Akins (HOU) 132.04%0.00%65.2275.80%10.77%76.924 +3
Tyler Eifert 153.33% 0.00% 64.9285.80%0.00%73.826 +2
Mo Alie-Cox (IND) 145.13% 0.00% 64.9295.80%0.00%66.530-1
Anthony Firkser (TEN) 161.89% 0.00% 64.2305.80%0.00%76.625 +5
Jordan Reed 108.70% 0.00% 60.1315.80%0.00%52.138-7
Zach Ertz (ARI) 111.39% 0.00% 59.5325.80%0.00%78.523 +9
Drew Sample (CIN) 161.89% 0.00% 58.9335.80%0.00%71.328 +5
Richard Rodgers (PHI) 116.45% 0.00% 58.5345.80%0.00%57.332 +2
Chris Herndon IV (MIN) 146.52% 0.00% 58.2355.80%0.00%56.234 +1
Dawson Knox (BUF) 116.82% 0.00% 54.8365.80%0.00%52.137-1
Cameron Brate (TB) 155.88% 0.00% 54.2375.80%0.00%54.035 +2
Jacob Hollister (JAC) 167.50% 0.00% 53.4385.80%0.00%49.341-3
Jack Doyle (IND) 149.09% 0.00% 52.6395.80%0.00%46.144-5
Kyle Rudolph (NYG) 122.70% 0.00% 51.4405.80%0.00%58.331 +9
Harrison Bryant (CLE) 127.89% 0.00% 49.8415.80%0.00%45.045-4
Will Dissly (SEA) 156.90% 0.00% 49.1425.80%0.00%47.243-1
Cole Kmet (CHI) 154.55%0.00%48.0435.80%10.77%51.939 +4
Durham Smythe (MIA) 156.67% 0.00% 45.8445.80%0.00%43.946-2
David Njoku (CLE) 116.90% 0.00% 42.8455.80%0.00%40.948-3
Greg Olsen 112.70% 0.00% 41.9465.80%0.00%48.842 +4
James O'Shaughnessy (JAC) 150.00% 0.00% 40.2475.80%0.00%53.436 +11
Tyler Conklin (MIN) 143.85% 0.00% 34.9485.80%0.00%37.949-1
Ian Thomas (CAR) 153.23% 0.00% 30.5495.80%0.00%35.350-1