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Touchdown Regression Report

2021 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 163.77%5.42%360.612.55%5.25%353.31 0
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 158.51%5.83%314.925.83%5.18%291.83-1
Najee Harris (PIT) 163.19%2.28%291.233.45%2.26%292.32 +1
Joe Mixon (CIN) 166.25%4.45%287.945.32%3.80%273.84 0
Leonard Fournette (TB) 142.38%4.44%255.653.28%4.50%260.75 0
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 163.23%4.57%242.164.28%4.05%239.36 0
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) 157.25%3.92%232.475.09%3.58%220.38-1
James Conner (ARI) 147.69%7.43%230.484.64%6.15%207.712-4
Aaron Jones (GB) 159.23%2.34%229.097.11%2.80%225.47 +2
Alvin Kamara (NO) 127.46%1.67%216.5105.64%2.32%218.69 +1
Nick Chubb (CLE) 134.00%3.51%208.3113.23%3.37%205.213-2
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 155.77%2.71%207.0124.82%3.25%212.310 +2
Josh Jacobs (LV) 140.00%4.15%203.6131.20%3.87%204.514-1
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 120.00%2.41%197.1140.57%3.04%208.111 +3
Javonte Williams (DEN) 165.88%2.09%196.5154.42%2.71%199.115 0
D'Andre Swift (DET) 122.56%3.31%194.3162.49%2.97%190.918-2
Derrick Henry (TEN) 80.00%4.57%193.3170.76%3.71%183.019-2
Damien Harris (NE) 140.00%7.39%192.8181.03%6.04%177.621-3
Darrel Williams (ARI) 163.77%4.38%188.3194.42%4.90%194.617 +2
David Montgomery (CHI) 130.00%3.11%186.1201.75%3.38%195.216 +4
Melvin Gordon III (DEN) 155.41%3.66%178.6214.24%3.64%175.722-1
AJ Dillon (GB) 165.41%2.67%177.9224.14%3.25%181.620 +2
James Robinson (JAC) 140.00%4.88%173.9230.47%4.20%168.525-2
Devin Singletary (BUF) 162.00%3.72%172.6242.76%3.44%171.724 0
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 166.35%1.73%169.6255.33%2.53%174.023 +2
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR) 127.50%3.36%163.4266.46%3.47%162.027-1
Tony Pollard (DAL) 150.00%1.54%162.6271.09%1.57%165.926 +1
Elijah Mitchell (SF) 115.00%2.42%156.5283.52%2.20%152.029-1
Michael Carter (NYJ) 130.00%2.72%152.5290.81%3.22%159.528 +1
Chase Edmonds (MIA) 120.00%1.72%143.3301.19%2.41%151.930 0
Devonta Freeman 152.38%3.76%141.9313.18%3.40%141.133-2
Saquon Barkley (NYG) 133.51%1.23%140.7322.46%1.37%138.435-3
Sony Michel (MIA) 163.03%1.92%140.4332.82%2.50%147.231 +2
Devontae Booker 152.22%1.38%139.5342.09%1.82%143.032 +2
Mike Davis (BAL) 161.72%2.17%136.4352.43%2.28%139.734 +1
J.D. McKissic (WAS) 113.77%4.17%127.9363.05%3.85%124.739-3
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 72.44%1.01%127.5371.84%1.83%130.936 +1
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) 152.70%2.91%124.0383.10%2.55%121.240-2
Alexander Mattison (MIN) 152.56%2.24%122.8393.25%2.59%127.238 +1
Miles Sanders (PHI) 120.00%0.00%117.2400.98%1.42%130.937 +3
Ty Johnson (NYJ) 143.64%3.28%117.1412.56%4.17%116.842-1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 108.70%3.36%116.5426.33%2.68%108.345-3
Jamaal Williams (DET) 120.00%1.96%113.6430.35%2.24%116.843 0
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) 110.00%3.76%110.3441.70%3.43%109.544 0
Kareem Hunt (CLE) 80.00%6.41%110.0451.18%4.94%105.047-2
Nyheim Hines (IND) 161.75%3.57%108.7461.93%2.41%105.446 0
Mark Ingram II (NO) 140.00%1.25%108.6471.31%2.05%119.141 +6
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) 152.33%7.14%104.7482.47%5.35%99.152-4
Brandon Bolden (LV) 154.08%2.27%103.5493.64%2.72%103.448 +1
Kenyan Drake (LV) 122.50%3.17%102.5502.13%2.54%99.251-1
Zack Moss (BUF) 123.13%4.17%101.8513.58%4.23%103.049 +2
Boston Scott (PHI) 110.00%8.05%98.6522.24%7.40%97.453-1
Rashaad Penny (SEA) 90.00%5.04%96.7530.43%3.77%87.855-2
Rex Burkhead (HOU) 140.00%2.46%94.7541.16%3.05%101.250 +4
D'Onta Foreman (CAR) 80.00%2.26%84.5551.40%2.64%88.554 +1
Justin Jackson (DET) 130.00%2.94%84.2561.49%3.16%87.356 0
D'Ernest Johnson (CLE) 120.00%3.00%83.8570.52%2.66%82.657 0
Samaje Perine (CIN) 153.23%1.82%83.2583.26%1.23%81.358 0
Latavius Murray 130.00%5.04%82.6593.08%4.19%78.961-2
Ronald Jones II (KC) 150.00%3.96%79.2601.92%3.51%77.962-2
Khalil Herbert (CHI) 150.00%1.94%77.8611.06%2.01%79.359 +2
David Johnson 122.38%0.00%74.7623.25%0.54%79.060 +2
Jeremy McNichols (PIT) 132.63%0.00%73.6632.79%1.09%76.663 0
Ameer Abdullah (LV) 161.89%0.00%72.3642.21%1.03%76.564 0
Alex Collins 110.00%1.85%68.8650.28%2.16%71.065 0
Dontrell Hilliard (TEN) 70.00%3.57%65.9661.70%2.53%65.067-1
Jordan Howard 70.00%3.49%62.5670.59%4.46%67.766 +1
DeeJay Dallas (SEA) 160.00%6.06%60.0680.46%4.78%58.169-1
Derrick Gore (KC) 70.00%4.55%53.1690.97%3.76%51.571-2
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) 80.00%2.53%51.5704.75%2.75%54.870 0
Tevin Coleman (NYJ) 100.00%0.00%50.9713.04%1.95%63.668 +3
Jaret Patterson (WAS) 130.00%2.94%50.4720.50%2.22%47.874-2
Peyton Barber 100.00%3.64%49.9731.20%3.55%50.672 +1
Damien Williams (ATL) 114.35%5.00%48.4742.94%5.00%46.575-1
Chris Carson 40.00%5.56%48.1750.23%3.97%43.076-1
Carlos Hyde 120.00%1.39%45.8760.45%2.34%50.573 +3
Matt Breida (NYG) 722.22%3.85%42.77713.34%2.66%36.084-7
Dare Ogunbowale (HOU) 124.76%2.33%41.6784.72%2.20%41.279-1
Ty'Son Williams (IND) 70.00%2.86%41.5791.84%2.54%42.277 +2
Phillip Lindsay (IND) 1320.00%1.14%41.48015.38%1.42%41.578 +2
Duke Johnson Jr. (BUF) 40.00%4.23%39.9810.06%3.74%37.882-1
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) 110.00%0.00%38.6820.93%0.43%41.080 +2
Craig Reynolds (DET) 40.00%0.00%35.0830.88%1.12%39.181 +2
Royce Freeman (HOU) 110.00%0.00%34.6840.27%0.72%37.383 +1
Le'Veon Bell 714.29%5.13%29.68511.18%4.65%27.287-2
Trey Sermon (SF) 60.00%2.44%28.3860.81%1.92%27.286 0
Adrian Peterson 40.00%5.26%26.6875.88%5.80%29.285 +2
Ke'Shawn Vaughn (TB) 50.00%5.56%24.5882.21%4.08%22.490-2
Malcolm Brown 60.00%3.03%22.5891.56%4.56%26.088 +1
Tony Jones Jr. (NO) 90.00%0.00%19.9902.02%0.74%23.389 +1
Austin Walter (LV) 40.00%3.85%19.0910.05%4.17%19.592-1
Eno Benjamin (ARI) 70.00%2.94%18.4920.86%1.98%16.893-1
Joshua Kelley (LAC) 80.00%0.00%17.0930.75%1.80%20.891 +2
Larry Rountree III (LAC) 100.00%2.78%15.6940.32%3.24%16.694 0
Wayne Gallman Jr. 90.00%0.00%13.5950.31%0.24%14.095 0
Marlon Mack (HOU) 60.00%0.00%12.9960.11%0.44%13.796 0
Benny Snell Jr. (PIT) 150.00%0.00%10.9970.27%0.41%11.998-1
Corey Clement (BAL) 100.00%0.00%10.9982.33%0.35%11.997 +1