Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 16 | 4.65% | 3.77% | 355.3 | 1 | 4.33% | 3.39% | 346.6 | 1 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 16 | 6.35% | 6.40% | 316.9 | 2 | 4.94% | 5.17% | 293.2 | 3 | -1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 1.39% | 4.61% | 310.4 | 3 | 1.50% | 4.05% | 300.6 | 2 | +1 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 9.09% | 4.92% | 306.3 | 4 | 7.10% | 4.18% | 289.2 | 4 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 16 | 6.90% | 2.96% | 281.8 | 5 | 5.54% | 3.42% | 280.4 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 16 | 2.33% | 4.98% | 281.5 | 6 | 2.72% | 4.55% | 274.6 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 16 | 5.00% | 4.43% | 272.1 | 7 | 4.98% | 4.10% | 265.8 | 7 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 14 | 2.25% | 2.63% | 265.3 | 8 | 1.78% | 2.75% | 264.4 | 8 | 0 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 15 | 5.26% | 7.73% | 257.9 | 9 | 4.02% | 6.02% | 233.8 | 14 | -5 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 16 | 6.06% | 3.06% | 255.0 | 10 | 5.72% | 3.33% | 257.4 | 9 | +1 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 16 | 1.82% | 3.39% | 253.8 | 11 | 2.08% | 3.33% | 253.8 | 10 | +1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 15 | 1.85% | 4.00% | 241.6 | 12 | 2.43% | 4.10% | 245.0 | 11 | +1 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 13 | 1.92% | 4.47% | 236.7 | 13 | 3.19% | 4.13% | 235.6 | 13 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN) | 16 | 3.23% | 1.96% | 229.1 | 14 | 4.55% | 2.55% | 243.1 | 12 | +2 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 228.0 | 15 | 1.92% | 3.74% | 232.7 | 15 | 0 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 15 | 3.90% | 2.38% | 222.7 | 16 | 3.39% | 2.30% | 219.3 | 16 | 0 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 14 | 0.00% | 6.49% | 221.7 | 17 | 0.60% | 5.84% | 215.9 | 18 | -1 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 13 | 3.13% | 3.63% | 219.7 | 18 | 2.52% | 3.57% | 217.5 | 17 | +1 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.37% | 202.0 | 19 | 0.30% | 2.40% | 203.4 | 19 | 0 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 15 | 10.53% | 2.08% | 199.6 | 20 | 7.76% | 2.67% | 195.2 | 22 | -2 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 15 | 0.00% | 1.92% | 194.5 | 21 | 0.57% | 1.85% | 195.3 | 21 | 0 |
| Najee Harris (LAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.28% | 189.0 | 22 | 0.65% | 2.68% | 197.2 | 20 | +2 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 15 | 6.12% | 0.85% | 181.4 | 23 | 4.96% | 1.28% | 184.1 | 23 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 12 | 0.00% | 4.62% | 181.3 | 24 | 1.12% | 3.76% | 173.8 | 26 | -2 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 11 | 1.89% | 4.58% | 181.2 | 25 | 2.10% | 4.21% | 178.5 | 25 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 16 | 1.92% | 5.88% | 177.8 | 26 | 1.25% | 5.25% | 170.6 | 27 | -1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 15 | 2.44% | 3.38% | 175.9 | 27 | 3.75% | 3.38% | 179.2 | 24 | +3 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 16 | 1.89% | 2.60% | 173.7 | 28 | 2.10% | 2.26% | 170.4 | 28 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 13 | 0.00% | 4.28% | 157.2 | 29 | 1.13% | 4.22% | 158.2 | 30 | -1 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 13 | 0.00% | 3.50% | 155.4 | 30 | 4.27% | 3.99% | 169.5 | 29 | +1 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.88% | 147.1 | 31 | 0.69% | 3.35% | 154.0 | 31 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.88% | 134.0 | 32 | 0.31% | 2.47% | 132.2 | 33 | -1 |
| Alexander Mattison (MIA) | 13 | 2.04% | 3.03% | 130.3 | 33 | 1.74% | 3.55% | 133.6 | 32 | +1 |
| Justice Hill (BAL) | 15 | 5.77% | 2.13% | 127.1 | 34 | 4.16% | 2.05% | 121.9 | 39 | -5 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 11 | 0.00% | 5.19% | 127.1 | 35 | 0.89% | 4.75% | 127.2 | 36 | -1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 16 | 6.38% | 3.03% | 125.2 | 36 | 5.43% | 3.39% | 123.9 | 38 | -2 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.83% | 122.0 | 37 | 1.15% | 1.59% | 130.7 | 34 | +3 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 14 | 0.00% | 1.33% | 121.2 | 38 | 1.08% | 1.79% | 128.7 | 35 | +3 |
| Tank Bigsby (JAC) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.17% | 117.8 | 39 | 0.35% | 4.00% | 116.4 | 40 | -1 |
| Jordan Mason (MIN) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.96% | 115.0 | 40 | 1.71% | 2.88% | 124.8 | 37 | +3 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 12 | 2.86% | 4.76% | 113.6 | 41 | 2.24% | 3.79% | 107.4 | 41 | 0 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 16 | 15.79% | 2.65% | 101.6 | 42 | 10.74% | 2.44% | 94.4 | 44 | -2 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.19% | 97.3 | 43 | 0.79% | 2.62% | 101.4 | 42 | +1 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.54% | 93.9 | 44 | 0.31% | 3.09% | 91.3 | 46 | -2 |
| Isaac Guerendo (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.76% | 93.7 | 45 | 0.55% | 4.21% | 91.4 | 45 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson (NE) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.83% | 93.3 | 46 | 0.61% | 1.35% | 98.1 | 43 | +3 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 15 | 7.41% | 0.88% | 90.4 | 47 | 5.49% | 1.47% | 91.2 | 47 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 16 | 12.00% | 2.44% | 89.4 | 48 | 8.35% | 2.79% | 84.8 | 49 | -1 |
| Cam Akers | 15 | 16.67% | 1.92% | 84.3 | 49 | 12.09% | 2.14% | 80.7 | 50 | -1 |
| Zack Moss (CIN) | 9 | 3.70% | 2.70% | 81.9 | 50 | 3.26% | 4.02% | 87.0 | 48 | +2 |
| Emanuel Wilson (GB) | 16 | 7.14% | 3.88% | 81.9 | 51 | 4.69% | 3.41% | 76.9 | 52 | -1 |
| Braelon Allen (NYJ) | 16 | 3.70% | 2.17% | 80.9 | 52 | 2.34% | 2.07% | 78.1 | 51 | +1 |
| Raheem Mostert (LV) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.35% | 70.9 | 53 | 0.67% | 2.77% | 73.9 | 53 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 10.91% | 70.5 | 54 | 0.66% | 9.09% | 65.3 | 54 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker (TB) | 16 | 8.33% | 4.00% | 67.1 | 55 | 4.46% | 3.57% | 63.0 | 57 | -2 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 0.00% | 3.96% | 64.1 | 56 | 0.25% | 3.86% | 63.6 | 55 | +1 |
| Jeremy McNichols (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 7.27% | 63.8 | 57 | 1.17% | 5.29% | 58.1 | 60 | -3 |
| Nick Chubb | 8 | 9.09% | 2.94% | 63.3 | 58 | 7.17% | 3.17% | 63.4 | 56 | +2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 0.00% | 4.05% | 57.5 | 59 | 0.81% | 3.91% | 57.6 | 61 | -2 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 7 | 0.00% | 1.20% | 56.9 | 60 | 1.98% | 1.75% | 61.5 | 59 | +1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.33% | 56.3 | 61 | 1.13% | 2.40% | 62.6 | 58 | +3 |
| Trey Sermon | 16 | 0.00% | 3.57% | 52.3 | 62 | 1.02% | 4.71% | 57.3 | 62 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale (HOU) | 16 | 3.57% | 0.00% | 51.7 | 63 | 5.19% | 0.70% | 55.7 | 63 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders (DAL) | 10 | 3.33% | 3.64% | 50.7 | 64 | 2.40% | 3.02% | 47.0 | 65 | -1 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 47.8 | 65 | 1.65% | 0.79% | 52.0 | 64 | +1 |
| Trey Benson (ARI) | 13 | 0.00% | 1.59% | 47.0 | 66 | 0.35% | 1.40% | 46.4 | 66 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson (IND) | 15 | 6.67% | 3.13% | 42.9 | 67 | 5.57% | 2.97% | 41.6 | 67 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis (NYJ) | 13 | 8.33% | 3.33% | 41.8 | 68 | 7.18% | 2.13% | 38.8 | 68 | 0 |
| Audric Estime (DEN) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.63% | 39.3 | 69 | 0.16% | 2.33% | 38.0 | 69 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson (PIT) | 12 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 37.4 | 70 | 5.01% | 0.89% | 37.3 | 72 | -2 |
| Chris Brooks (GB) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 36.3 | 71 | 1.46% | 2.69% | 37.2 | 73 | -2 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. (CLE) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 35.2 | 72 | 0.62% | 0.26% | 36.4 | 75 | -3 |
| Jamaal Williams | 13 | 0.00% | 2.08% | 33.9 | 73 | 0.85% | 2.23% | 34.9 | 76 | -3 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC) | 9 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 32.7 | 74 | 6.25% | 0.51% | 31.4 | 77 | -3 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32.3 | 75 | 1.23% | 1.44% | 36.5 | 74 | +1 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) | 7 | 0.00% | 5.71% | 31.5 | 76 | 1.56% | 5.32% | 30.8 | 80 | -4 |
| Blake Corum (LAR) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.3 | 77 | 0.14% | 2.06% | 37.5 | 70 | +7 |
| Zamir White (LV) | 8 | 0.00% | 1.54% | 29.3 | 78 | 0.56% | 1.93% | 31.1 | 78 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 29.1 | 79 | 0.39% | 1.71% | 27.3 | 83 | -4 |
| Ty Chandler (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 28.4 | 80 | 1.28% | 0.54% | 30.7 | 81 | -1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 28.1 | 81 | 0.35% | 2.17% | 37.5 | 71 | +10 |
| Sincere McCormick (LV) | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 27.2 | 82 | 1.17% | 1.38% | 30.9 | 79 | +3 |
| Jaylen Wright (MIA) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 27.1 | 83 | 2.28% | 0.38% | 29.5 | 82 | +1 |
| Hassan Haskins (LAC) | 14 | 33.33% | 5.88% | 23.5 | 84 | 17.05% | 8.33% | 25.6 | 85 | -1 |
| Dameon Pierce (HOU) | 10 | 0.00% | 5.00% | 19.9 | 85 | 0.99% | 3.04% | 15.4 | 91 | -6 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 3 | 0.00% | 2.86% | 19.9 | 86 | 1.23% | 3.58% | 22.2 | 86 | 0 |
| Carson Steele (KC) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.2 | 87 | 1.37% | 1.85% | 26.3 | 84 | +3 |
| Kenny McIntosh (SEA) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.5 | 88 | 0.14% | 0.39% | 18.3 | 89 | -1 |
| Craig Reynolds (DET) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.0 | 89 | 0.42% | 0.37% | 17.8 | 90 | -1 |
| Patrick Taylor Jr. (SF) | 8 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 16.7 | 90 | 0.80% | 3.51% | 19.4 | 88 | +2 |
| Khalil Herbert (IND) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 16.2 | 91 | 2.33% | 4.08% | 20.6 | 87 | +4 |
| Will Shipley (PHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.0 | 92 | 3.96% | 0.40% | 6.7 | 92 | 0 |
