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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Alvin Kamara (NO) 154.67%8.56%377.813.94%6.73%352.61 0
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 141.85%5.13%337.821.51%4.86%331.62 0
Derrick Henry (TEN) 160.00%4.50%333.130.74%3.92%321.33 0
David Montgomery (CHI) 152.94%3.24%264.843.40%3.44%269.64 0
Aaron Jones (GB) 143.17%4.48%258.953.86%3.96%255.35 0
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 152.44%4.74%252.862.67%4.47%249.66 0
James Robinson (JAC) 145.00%2.92%250.473.70%2.50%239.88-1
Josh Jacobs (LV) 150.00%4.40%231.380.91%4.51%235.79-1
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 152.74%2.46%223.792.27%3.88%242.57 +2
Kareem Hunt (CLE) 169.80%3.03%218.5107.01%3.49%215.410 0
Nick Chubb (CLE) 120.00%6.32%207.7111.26%5.11%195.314-3
Mike Davis (ATL) 152.86%3.64%206.5123.30%4.01%212.011 +1
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 140.00%6.47%202.2130.95%5.30%192.816-3
Melvin Gordon III (DEN) 152.27%4.19%198.4142.29%3.42%188.617-3
Nyheim Hines (IND) 165.19%3.37%193.2154.29%4.30%194.015 0
Kenyan Drake (LV) 150.00%4.18%192.2160.63%4.68%200.512 +4
J.D. McKissic (WAS) 161.82%1.18%191.4171.93%1.85%195.613 +4
D'Andre Swift (DET) 133.51%7.02%189.8183.26%6.05%182.321-3
Chris Carson (SEA) 128.70%3.55%187.8196.25%3.35%179.422-3
Ronald Jones II (TB) 142.38%3.65%186.3202.88%3.52%186.118 +2
David Johnson (HOU) 124.35%4.08%179.5215.46%4.05%182.320 +1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 131.82%2.21%176.0222.77%2.68%184.219 +3
Miles Sanders (PHI) 120.00%3.66%170.4230.44%3.60%171.224-1
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) 150.00%6.72%168.5241.53%5.37%159.929-5
Chase Edmonds (ARI) 165.88%1.03%168.0254.95%1.37%166.228-3
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 103.08%0.86%165.3263.27%1.52%170.725 +1
James Conner (ARI) 130.00%3.55%164.6271.95%3.53%169.426 +1
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 104.26%2.11%164.2283.89%3.48%174.823 +5
Todd Gurley II 150.00%4.62%163.2290.39%4.88%167.127 +2
Giovani Bernard (TB) 165.08%2.42%158.1304.44%2.74%158.230 0
Devin Singletary (BUF) 160.00%1.28%143.6311.21%1.92%153.331 0
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) 1210.71%5.56%142.3327.88%4.76%131.537-5
Wayne Gallman Jr. (ATL) 150.00%4.08%136.6330.96%3.81%135.832 +1
Latavius Murray (BAL) 153.85%2.74%136.2343.42%2.50%133.436-2
Leonard Fournette (TB) 130.00%6.19%132.0351.87%5.58%133.735 0
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR) 154.17%3.62%130.3363.75%4.21%134.633 +3
Gus Edwards (BAL) 160.00%4.17%128.2371.16%4.13%128.938-1
Jamaal Williams (DET) 142.86%1.68%127.1383.20%2.62%134.634 +4
Jerick McKinnon (KC) 152.17%6.17%126.2392.62%4.78%120.740-1
Adrian Peterson 160.00%4.49%124.5401.02%4.80%128.539 +1
Tony Pollard (DAL) 162.50%3.96%120.8413.08%3.08%116.841 0
James White (NE) 141.61%5.71%116.6421.96%4.06%114.442 0
Malcolm Brown (MIA) 160.00%4.95%109.1431.25%4.88%111.244-1
Rex Burkhead (HOU) 109.09%4.48%107.6446.43%4.28%101.547-3
Cam Akers (LAR) 127.14%1.38%101.8457.15%2.82%114.343 +2
Zack Moss (BUF) 135.56%3.57%101.6465.63%4.50%107.945 +1
Frank Gore 150.00%1.07%100.2470.70%1.63%107.346 +1
Raheem Mostert (SF) 85.26%1.92%99.7483.01%2.50%100.749-1
Joe Mixon (CIN) 63.85%2.52%99.6493.46%2.66%100.050-1
Boston Scott (PHI) 162.78%1.25%95.6503.08%1.68%98.352-2
Brian Hill 160.00%1.00%95.4510.88%1.33%99.051 0
Kalen Ballage (PIT) 110.00%3.30%93.9520.77%4.24%100.748 +4
Damien Harris (NE) 100.00%1.46%91.3530.74%1.88%95.153 0
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 35.26%8.47%90.3543.83%6.51%81.760-6
Alexander Mattison (MIN) 136.67%2.08%86.9553.66%3.21%90.754 +1
Devontae Booker (NYG) 160.00%3.23%85.7562.15%2.41%83.858-2
Carlos Hyde (JAC) 100.00%4.94%84.9570.74%4.26%82.559-2
Duke Johnson Jr. 112.86%1.30%84.4583.64%1.32%86.257 +1
Joshua Kelley (LAC) 130.00%1.80%81.2591.12%2.88%90.055 +4
Sony Michel (LAR) 811.11%1.27%75.3605.73%1.71%74.562-2
Benny Snell Jr. (PIT) 150.00%3.60%74.9614.21%5.04%88.056 +5
Le'Veon Bell (BAL) 110.00%2.44%74.6622.06%2.56%77.761 +1
Kerryon Johnson (SF) 153.85%3.85%71.8633.02%3.76%70.364-1
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) 60.00%4.00%69.0640.93%4.19%70.663 +1
Phillip Lindsay (HOU) 110.00%0.85%66.0650.90%1.20%69.365 0
Samaje Perine (CIN) 160.00%4.76%65.7662.14%4.37%65.767-1
Justin Jackson (LAC) 80.00%0.00%65.3670.22%0.41%67.166 +1
Ty Johnson (NYJ) 124.76%1.85%63.3682.94%2.86%64.368 0
Jordan Wilkins (IND) 140.00%1.19%61.3691.32%1.51%64.269 0
Ito Smith 140.00%1.56%57.3703.21%1.67%62.770 0
Dion Lewis 163.33%6.90%57.2713.17%6.08%55.573-2
DeeJay Dallas (SEA) 105.00%5.88%56.9724.61%6.98%58.771 +1
Peyton Barber (LV) 150.00%4.26%55.0730.09%4.61%57.072 +1
Darrel Williams (KC) 150.00%2.56%54.5741.47%1.76%54.974 0
Mark Ingram II (HOU) 110.00%2.78%52.9751.17%2.62%52.875 0
La'Mical Perine (NYJ) 100.00%3.13%52.5760.72%2.56%51.076 0
Jeremy McNichols (TEN) 150.00%2.13%43.9772.68%2.25%47.077 0
Matt Breida (BUF) 110.00%0.00%42.0780.46%0.63%44.578 0
Alfred Morris (NYG) 925.00%1.82%40.77915.52%1.71%38.180-1
AJ Dillon (GB) 110.00%4.35%40.3801.53%2.77%36.184-4
Royce Freeman (CAR) 120.00%0.00%37.1811.38%1.00%40.379 +2
Josh Adams (NYJ) 80.00%6.90%36.6820.15%6.64%36.283-1
Rodney Smith (CAR) 70.00%2.44%36.5830.36%2.39%36.682 +1
Devonta Freeman (BAL) 50.00%1.85%36.0843.00%1.85%37.881 +3
Darwin Thompson (TB) 99.09%3.70%33.2856.29%3.03%30.388-3
JaMycal Hasty (SF) 80.00%2.56%31.1860.36%3.24%32.885 +1
Jordan Howard (PHI) 70.00%11.43%30.7870.15%11.31%30.587 0
Dare Ogunbowale (JAC) 130.00%0.00%29.9880.32%0.97%32.286 +2
Ke'Shawn Vaughn (TB) 810.00%0.00%23.3897.60%0.72%23.090-1
Anthony McFarland Jr. (PIT) 110.00%0.00%22.7900.43%0.41%23.889 +1
Trayveon Williams (CIN) 70.00%0.00%21.7910.96%0.26%22.491 0
D'Ernest Johnson (CLE) 150.00%0.00%21.0922.65%0.25%22.193-1
DeAndre Washington 40.00%0.00%17.1930.92%2.41%22.192 +1
Tevin Coleman (NYJ) 70.00%0.00%12.7941.29%1.22%15.194 0