Touchdown Regression Report

What is touchdown regression?

While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression. When "Based on" is set to Areas of Field, the field is split into five yard zones and league averages are calculated based on the area of the field in which each play took place.