Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 16 | 5.43% | 3.22% | 404.9 | 1 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 381.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 3.88% | 2.44% | 363.5 | 2 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 366.3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 16 | 3.64% | 5.57% | 356.4 | 3 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 303.5 | 4 | -1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 16 | 5.32% | 5.35% | 346.6 | 4 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 302.5 | 5 | -1 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 16 | 4.71% | 3.36% | 322.8 | 5 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 310.6 | 3 | +2 |
| James Cook III (BUF) | 16 | 5.00% | 3.88% | 300.7 | 6 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 281.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.21% | 266.9 | 7 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 227.9 | 12 | -5 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 16 | 5.68% | 2.59% | 263.6 | 8 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 259.3 | 7 | +1 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 16 | 6.00% | 3.86% | 252.2 | 9 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 228.3 | 11 | -2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 11.54% | 2.69% | 249.1 | 10 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 226.1 | 13 | -3 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 16 | 3.92% | 4.37% | 242.8 | 11 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 220.9 | 15 | -4 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 15 | 2.27% | 5.56% | 237.1 | 12 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 204.6 | 17 | -5 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 16 | 6.85% | 1.88% | 232.7 | 13 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 229.7 | 10 | +3 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 16 | 4.00% | 2.50% | 232.3 | 14 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 239.5 | 8 | +6 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 15 | 2.08% | 4.04% | 222.8 | 15 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 210.8 | 16 | -1 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 16 | 2.00% | 2.54% | 213.3 | 16 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 222.6 | 14 | +2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 16 | 2.08% | 1.65% | 207.7 | 17 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 231.6 | 9 | +8 |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | 16 | 8.62% | 4.76% | 202.3 | 18 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 164.5 | 24 | -6 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 15 | 4.44% | 2.84% | 202.2 | 19 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 198.1 | 18 | +1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 16 | 3.53% | 4.39% | 199.9 | 20 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 192.1 | 20 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 16 | 2.38% | 5.00% | 188.9 | 21 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 179.6 | 22 | -1 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.07% | 176.3 | 22 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 195.6 | 19 | +3 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.26% | 174.6 | 23 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 188.5 | 21 | +2 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.04% | 169.8 | 24 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 177.1 | 23 | +1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 6.52% | 162.7 | 25 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 131.4 | 34 | -9 |
| David Montgomery (HOU) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.06% | 160.4 | 26 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 145.4 | 28 | -2 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | 15 | 8.33% | 1.02% | 144.3 | 27 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 154.9 | 25 | +2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 13 | 5.26% | 5.38% | 143.5 | 28 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 136.7 | 31 | -3 |
| Kyle Monangai (CHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.94% | 140.8 | 29 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 146.4 | 27 | +2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 16 | 4.00% | 4.91% | 138.9 | 30 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 118.1 | 40 | -10 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.57% | 137.4 | 31 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 121.9 | 39 | -8 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.03% | 136.9 | 32 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 144.0 | 29 | +3 |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC) | 9 | 2.86% | 3.23% | 135.7 | 33 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 135.1 | 32 | +1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 14 | 4.17% | 1.14% | 132.9 | 34 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 151.4 | 26 | +8 |
| Cam Skattebo (NYG) | 8 | 6.25% | 4.95% | 127.7 | 35 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 110.3 | 43 | -8 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 9 | 8.57% | 0.58% | 127.7 | 36 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 137.0 | 30 | +6 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 14 | 7.69% | 0.75% | 121.7 | 37 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 128.4 | 35 | +2 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.59% | 120.1 | 38 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 99.9 | 47 | -9 |
| Jordan Mason (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.77% | 119.5 | 39 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 113.4 | 41 | -2 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 12 | 2.44% | 1.52% | 118.7 | 40 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 132.7 | 33 | +7 |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.61% | 115.9 | 41 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 122.9 | 38 | +3 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC) | 12 | 4.55% | 1.94% | 115.9 | 42 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 124.0 | 37 | +5 |
| Blake Corum (LAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.14% | 114.3 | 43 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 105.2 | 45 | -2 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 102.0 | 44 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 110.7 | 42 | +2 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.76% | 100.7 | 45 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 126.2 | 36 | +9 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.20% | 98.2 | 46 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 98.1 | 48 | -2 |
| Bam Knight (ARI) | 12 | 3.23% | 4.88% | 92.9 | 47 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 83.8 | 52 | -5 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.09% | 92.1 | 48 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 109.6 | 44 | +4 |
| Sean Tucker (TB) | 16 | 9.09% | 8.14% | 91.8 | 49 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 61.0 | 63 | -14 |
| Emanuel Wilson (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.40% | 88.7 | 50 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 93.5 | 50 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb (HOU) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.46% | 88.3 | 51 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 96.6 | 49 | +2 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 13 | 3.85% | 0.85% | 87.3 | 52 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 102.0 | 46 | +6 |
| Dylan Sampson (CLE) | 14 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 81.2 | 53 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 86.2 | 51 | +2 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 16 | 6.06% | 6.00% | 80.7 | 54 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 75.2 | 55 | -1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten (JAC) | 14 | 14.29% | 6.02% | 80.3 | 55 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 61.3 | 61 | -6 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) | 12 | 0.00% | 5.36% | 76.7 | 56 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 65.1 | 58 | -2 |
| Isaiah Davis (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.33% | 71.2 | 57 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 78.3 | 53 | +4 |
| Jeremy McNichols (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.27% | 70.6 | 58 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 78.1 | 54 | +4 |
| Samaje Perine (CIN) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.57% | 69.7 | 59 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 68.9 | 56 | +3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (SF) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.17% | 61.6 | 60 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 68.5 | 57 | +3 |
| Devin Neal (NO) | 9 | 0.00% | 3.51% | 60.0 | 61 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 62.1 | 59 | +2 |
| Brashard Smith (KC) | 16 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 55.5 | 62 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 61.1 | 62 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell (BAL) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.69% | 55.2 | 63 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 62.0 | 60 | +3 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | 16 | 11.11% | 4.29% | 52.0 | 64 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 40.8 | 71 | -7 |
| Emari Demercado (ARI) | 12 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 51.6 | 65 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 56.9 | 64 | +1 |
| Jaylen Wright (MIA) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.86% | 44.2 | 66 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 44.1 | 68 | -2 |
| Malik Davis (DAL) | 10 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 40.6 | 67 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 39.2 | 73 | -6 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 16 | 15.38% | 0.00% | 38.7 | 68 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 41.6 | 70 | -2 |
| Zavier Scott (MIN) | 10 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 36.5 | 69 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 38.6 | 74 | -5 |
| Tank Bigsby (PHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.17% | 36.2 | 70 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 39.5 | 72 | -2 |
| Trey Benson (ARI) | 5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 35.4 | 71 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 43.7 | 69 | +2 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.13% | 33.3 | 72 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 36.9 | 77 | -5 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 4 | 11.11% | 3.13% | 33.3 | 73 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 28.9 | 84 | -11 |
| Audric Estime (NO) | 6 | 0.00% | 2.17% | 32.5 | 74 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 32.6 | 80 | -6 |
| Jawhar Jordan (HOU) | 3 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 29.4 | 75 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 37.7 | 75 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 26.6 | 76 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 32.3 | 81 | -5 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.70% | 24.6 | 77 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 25.1 | 86 | -9 |
| Jaret Patterson (LAC) | 5 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 19.0 | 78 | nan% | 3.10% | 19.1 | 91 | -13 |
| Raheim Sanders (CLE) | 4 | 0.00% | 3.70% | 16.0 | 79 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 14.6 | 99 | -20 |
| Kaleb Johnson (PIT) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 8.8 | 80 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 14.4 | 100 | -20 |
| Jaydon Blue (DAL) | 4 | 0.00% | 2.63% | 8.0 | 81 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 12.3 | 104 | -23 |
| DJ Giddens (IND) | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6.6 | 82 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 10.3 | 107 | -25 |
