Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 16 | 6.51% | 0.00% | 302.4 | 1 | 6.09% | 0.00% | 298.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) | 16 | 4.24% | 0.00% | 199.0 | 2 | 3.86% | 0.00% | 196.3 | 2 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 16 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 189.0 | 3 | 4.37% | 18.06% | 188.4 | 4 | -1 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 16 | 7.84% | 0.00% | 186.6 | 4 | 7.94% | 3.85% | 187.4 | 5 | -1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | 16 | 5.56% | 14.29% | 186.4 | 5 | 4.48% | 10.17% | 177.7 | 6 | -1 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 15 | 13.41% | 0.00% | 185.1 | 6 | 10.50% | 0.00% | 170.8 | 8 | -2 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 16 | 3.57% | 16.67% | 180.9 | 7 | 4.99% | 17.96% | 190.9 | 3 | +4 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 12 | 8.14% | 0.00% | 176.2 | 8 | 6.98% | 0.00% | 170.2 | 10 | -2 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 16 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 172.8 | 9 | 2.65% | 0.00% | 171.0 | 7 | +2 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 16 | 8.05% | 0.00% | 168.2 | 10 | 8.00% | 0.00% | 168.0 | 11 | -1 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 16 | 2.83% | 0.00% | 166.4 | 11 | 3.48% | 0.00% | 170.5 | 9 | +2 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 10 | 10.14% | 0.00% | 153.6 | 12 | 8.04% | 3.13% | 145.1 | 12 | 0 |
| AJ Barner (SEA) | 16 | 8.82% | 10.00% | 143.9 | 13 | 7.35% | 7.91% | 136.6 | 14 | -1 |
| Colston Loveland (CHI) | 15 | 7.32% | 0.00% | 140.0 | 14 | 6.65% | 3.57% | 136.9 | 13 | +1 |
| Theo Johnson (NYG) | 15 | 6.76% | 0.00% | 127.8 | 15 | 6.39% | 0.00% | 126.2 | 17 | -2 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 16 | 7.14% | 10.00% | 127.6 | 16 | 7.72% | 12.06% | 131.3 | 15 | +1 |
| Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) | 14 | 4.35% | 0.00% | 127.1 | 17 | 5.12% | 0.00% | 130.3 | 16 | +1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 13 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 126.4 | 18 | 4.89% | 0.00% | 123.5 | 18 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 2.53% | 0.00% | 121.8 | 19 | 2.43% | 0.00% | 121.3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 11 | 10.20% | 0.00% | 118.3 | 20 | 7.58% | 0.00% | 110.6 | 21 | -1 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 8 | 13.64% | 0.00% | 117.2 | 21 | 9.92% | 0.00% | 107.4 | 22 | -1 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 15 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 112.8 | 22 | 4.76% | 3.57% | 113.9 | 20 | +2 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 14 | 14.29% | 0.00% | 110.2 | 23 | 12.32% | 0.00% | 103.6 | 24 | -1 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 9 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 106.9 | 24 | 5.12% | 0.00% | 103.9 | 23 | +1 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 105.5 | 25 | 6.19% | 0.00% | 101.6 | 26 | -1 |
| Brenton Strange (JAC) | 11 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 100.8 | 26 | 4.83% | 0.00% | 100.2 | 27 | -1 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 15 | 1.23% | 0.00% | 99.8 | 27 | 1.75% | 0.00% | 102.3 | 25 | +2 |
| Evan Engram (DEN) | 15 | 1.32% | 0.00% | 95.3 | 28 | 2.18% | 0.00% | 99.2 | 28 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 16 | 8.16% | 0.00% | 93.3 | 29 | 8.73% | 0.00% | 95.0 | 29 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges (SF) | 16 | 10.87% | 0.00% | 93.3 | 30 | 8.91% | 0.00% | 87.9 | 32 | -2 |
| Gunnar Helm (TEN) | 16 | 3.64% | 0.00% | 91.7 | 31 | 4.03% | 0.00% | 93.0 | 30 | +1 |
| Mason Taylor (NYJ) | 13 | 1.54% | 0.00% | 88.9 | 32 | 2.56% | 0.00% | 92.9 | 31 | +1 |
| Darren Waller (MIA) | 9 | 17.65% | 0.00% | 88.7 | 33 | 12.54% | 0.00% | 78.3 | 36 | -3 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 12 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 86.3 | 34 | 6.79% | 0.00% | 81.8 | 34 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith (PIT) | 16 | 3.70% | 11.11% | 83.8 | 35 | 4.23% | 7.16% | 83.4 | 33 | +2 |
| Noah Fant (CIN) | 14 | 7.32% | 0.00% | 75.3 | 36 | 6.18% | 0.00% | 72.5 | 37 | -1 |
| Darnell Washington (PIT) | 16 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 73.4 | 37 | 4.65% | 0.00% | 79.4 | 35 | +2 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 15 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 38 | 3.88% | 0.00% | 72.3 | 38 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 12 | 4.76% | 0.00% | 67.4 | 39 | 5.54% | 0.00% | 69.4 | 39 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 12 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 66.1 | 40 | 2.96% | 0.00% | 69.0 | 40 | 0 |
| Davis Allen (LAR) | 16 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 62.8 | 41 | 8.76% | 0.00% | 62.1 | 41 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 15 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 57.8 | 42 | 7.85% | 0.00% | 58.0 | 44 | -2 |
| Greg Dulcich (MIA) | 9 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 56.7 | 43 | 3.81% | 18.06% | 59.3 | 43 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 13 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 56.5 | 44 | 4.75% | 0.00% | 61.1 | 42 | +2 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) | 13 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 54.0 | 45 | 4.91% | 0.00% | 58.0 | 45 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins (ARI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 52.3 | 46 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 57.0 | 46 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 51.1 | 47 | 4.70% | 0.00% | 49.5 | 49 | -2 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 9 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 51.0 | 48 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 49.6 | 48 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 49.2 | 49 | 0.78% | 0.00% | 50.6 | 47 | +2 |
| Daniel Bellinger (NYG) | 15 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 47.8 | 50 | 6.18% | 0.00% | 45.4 | 51 | -1 |
| Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ) | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 46.9 | 51 | 4.11% | 0.00% | 48.1 | 50 | +1 |
| Elijah Arroyo (SEA) | 13 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 36.9 | 52 | 5.01% | 0.00% | 38.7 | 52 | 0 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32.8 | 53 | 1.35% | 0.00% | 35.8 | 53 | 0 |
