Touchdown Regression Report
2020 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 15 | 7.53% | 0.00% | 312.8 | 1 | 6.49% | 0.00% | 303.6 | 1 | 0 |
| Darren Waller (LV) | 16 | 6.16% | 0.00% | 278.6 | 2 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 278.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas (WAS) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 176.6 | 3 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 175.6 | 4 | -1 |
| Robert Tonyan (GB) | 16 | 18.64% | 0.00% | 176.6 | 4 | 13.02% | 0.00% | 156.7 | 7 | -3 |
| T.J. Hockenson (DET) | 16 | 5.94% | 0.00% | 175.3 | 5 | 6.37% | 0.00% | 177.9 | 3 | +2 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 14 | 7.87% | 0.00% | 170.1 | 6 | 7.25% | 0.00% | 166.8 | 5 | +1 |
| Mike Gesicki (MIA) | 15 | 7.06% | 0.00% | 159.3 | 7 | 6.73% | 0.00% | 157.6 | 6 | +1 |
| Rob Gronkowski (TB) | 16 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 149.3 | 8 | 8.65% | 0.00% | 147.3 | 13 | -5 |
| Noah Fant (DEN) | 15 | 3.23% | 0.00% | 149.3 | 9 | 3.41% | 0.00% | 150.3 | 8 | +1 |
| Hayden Hurst (ATL) | 16 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 149.1 | 10 | 6.50% | 0.00% | 147.4 | 12 | -2 |
| Dalton Schultz (DAL) | 16 | 4.49% | 0.00% | 146.5 | 11 | 4.74% | 0.00% | 147.8 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 14 | 4.30% | 0.00% | 145.3 | 12 | 4.98% | 0.00% | 149.1 | 9 | +3 |
| Jimmy Graham (CHI) | 16 | 10.53% | 0.00% | 143.6 | 13 | 9.95% | 0.00% | 141.0 | 15 | -2 |
| Eric Ebron (PIT) | 15 | 5.49% | 0.00% | 141.8 | 14 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 145.2 | 14 | 0 |
| Evan Engram (NYG) | 16 | 0.92% | 16.67% | 141.0 | 15 | 2.19% | 12.82% | 147.9 | 10 | +5 |
| Jonnu Smith (NE) | 14 | 12.31% | 50.00% | 140.2 | 16 | 11.44% | 38.46% | 135.4 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 15 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 128.2 | 17 | 6.72% | 0.00% | 122.4 | 18 | -1 |
| Jared Cook (LAC) | 15 | 11.67% | 0.00% | 127.4 | 18 | 8.93% | 0.00% | 117.6 | 19 | -1 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 8 | 3.17% | 0.00% | 125.1 | 19 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 124.5 | 17 | +2 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 11 | 4.62% | 0.00% | 116.4 | 20 | 4.36% | 0.00% | 115.4 | 21 | -1 |
| Austin Hooper (CLE) | 13 | 5.71% | 0.00% | 113.5 | 21 | 6.22% | 0.00% | 115.6 | 20 | +1 |
| Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) | 13 | 11.63% | 0.00% | 98.5 | 22 | 11.03% | 0.00% | 97.0 | 22 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold (CAR) | 16 | 8.89% | 0.00% | 96.8 | 23 | 7.02% | 0.00% | 91.8 | 24 | -1 |
| Gerald Everett (SEA) | 16 | 1.61% | 100.00% | 92.9 | 24 | 2.43% | 76.92% | 94.6 | 23 | +1 |
| Anthony Firkser (TEN) | 16 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 83.7 | 25 | 3.56% | 0.00% | 89.0 | 26 | -1 |
| Jordan Akins (HOU) | 13 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 83.7 | 26 | 3.99% | 0.00% | 89.4 | 25 | +1 |
| Trey Burton | 13 | 6.38% | 100.00% | 83.3 | 27 | 6.34% | 76.92% | 80.4 | 30 | -3 |
| Tyler Eifert | 15 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 82.9 | 28 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 86.9 | 27 | +1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox (IND) | 14 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 80.4 | 29 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 80.4 | 31 | -2 |
| Drew Sample (CIN) | 16 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 78.9 | 30 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 85.1 | 28 | +2 |
| Zach Ertz (PHI) | 11 | 1.39% | 0.00% | 77.5 | 31 | 2.88% | 0.00% | 83.9 | 29 | +2 |
| Darren Fells (DET) | 13 | 13.79% | 0.00% | 76.2 | 32 | 9.49% | 0.00% | 68.7 | 35 | -3 |
| Chris Herndon IV (NYJ) | 14 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 73.7 | 33 | 5.23% | 0.00% | 70.1 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 10 | 8.70% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 34 | 8.04% | 0.00% | 71.3 | 32 | +2 |
| Richard Rodgers (PHI) | 11 | 6.45% | 0.00% | 70.5 | 35 | 4.31% | 0.00% | 66.5 | 39 | -4 |
| Cameron Brate (TB) | 15 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 68.2 | 36 | 5.92% | 0.00% | 68.3 | 36 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 11 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 66.8 | 37 | 7.78% | 0.00% | 69.3 | 34 | +3 |
| Jacob Hollister (BUF) | 16 | 7.50% | 0.00% | 65.9 | 38 | 8.07% | 0.00% | 67.3 | 38 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph (NYG) | 12 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 65.4 | 39 | 3.81% | 0.00% | 67.9 | 37 | +2 |
| Jack Doyle (IND) | 14 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 64.1 | 40 | 7.68% | 0.00% | 61.3 | 41 | -1 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 15 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 62.0 | 41 | 5.19% | 26.92% | 65.3 | 40 | +1 |
| Harrison Bryant (CLE) | 12 | 7.89% | 0.00% | 61.8 | 42 | 7.33% | 0.00% | 60.5 | 43 | -1 |
| Will Dissly (SEA) | 15 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 61.1 | 43 | 5.87% | 0.00% | 59.3 | 44 | -1 |
| Durham Smythe (MIA) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 58.8 | 44 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 60.6 | 42 | +2 |
| James O'Shaughnessy (JAC) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 54.2 | 45 | 0.86% | 0.00% | 56.2 | 46 | -1 |
| Greg Olsen | 11 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 53.9 | 46 | 4.76% | 0.00% | 58.5 | 45 | +1 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 11 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 52.3 | 47 | 8.05% | 0.00% | 54.3 | 47 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin (MIN) | 14 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 44.4 | 48 | 2.87% | 0.00% | 42.9 | 48 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas (CAR) | 15 | 3.23% | 0.00% | 40.5 | 49 | 3.57% | 0.00% | 41.1 | 49 | 0 |
