Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 16 | 3.27% | 0.00% | 247.7 | 1 | 3.67% | 0.00% | 251.4 | 1 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 14 | 8.42% | 0.00% | 231.9 | 2 | 7.82% | 0.00% | 228.4 | 3 | -1 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 15 | 1.36% | 100.00% | 230.3 | 3 | 3.57% | 73.21% | 248.2 | 2 | +1 |
| Jonnu Smith (PIT) | 16 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 203.7 | 4 | 6.64% | 4.46% | 200.9 | 5 | -1 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 16 | 2.26% | 0.00% | 195.4 | 5 | 3.89% | 23.21% | 209.8 | 4 | +1 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 16 | 15.94% | 0.00% | 173.4 | 6 | 11.29% | 2.23% | 154.7 | 9 | -3 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 16 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 162.0 | 7 | 7.76% | 0.00% | 162.4 | 6 | +1 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 15 | 8.43% | 0.00% | 161.3 | 8 | 7.79% | 0.00% | 158.1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 16 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 155.7 | 9 | 7.80% | 0.00% | 146.5 | 11 | -2 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 11 | 5.10% | 0.00% | 148.5 | 10 | 5.39% | 0.00% | 150.2 | 10 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 16 | 8.97% | 0.00% | 145.8 | 11 | 6.74% | 0.00% | 135.3 | 13 | -2 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 145.4 | 12 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 158.5 | 7 | +5 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 14 | 4.60% | 0.00% | 140.6 | 13 | 5.52% | 0.00% | 145.4 | 12 | +1 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 127.7 | 14 | 5.24% | 0.00% | 127.0 | 15 | -1 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 16 | 2.41% | 0.00% | 126.7 | 15 | 3.36% | 0.00% | 131.4 | 14 | +1 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 16 | 7.27% | 0.00% | 118.1 | 16 | 6.11% | 0.00% | 114.3 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 15 | 10.34% | 0.00% | 116.9 | 17 | 8.87% | 0.00% | 111.8 | 20 | -3 |
| Chig Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 2.82% | 0.00% | 113.6 | 18 | 2.62% | 0.00% | 112.8 | 18 | 0 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 16 | 10.20% | 0.00% | 112.6 | 19 | 8.24% | 2.17% | 107.0 | 22 | -3 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 16 | 2.35% | 0.00% | 112.3 | 20 | 2.52% | 0.00% | 113.2 | 17 | +3 |
| Tyler Conklin (LAC) | 15 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 112.3 | 21 | 5.53% | 0.00% | 112.2 | 19 | +2 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 16 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 108.8 | 22 | 3.78% | 0.00% | 105.8 | 23 | -1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 8 | 0.00% | 15.38% | 103.3 | 23 | 1.09% | 10.65% | 94.3 | 28 | -5 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 16 | 5.08% | 0.00% | 101.9 | 24 | 4.39% | 0.00% | 99.4 | 25 | -1 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 101.2 | 25 | 1.28% | 0.00% | 107.8 | 21 | +4 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 13 | 2.67% | 0.00% | 100.8 | 26 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 104.3 | 24 | +2 |
| Foster Moreau (NO) | 16 | 11.63% | 0.00% | 96.2 | 27 | 9.31% | 0.00% | 90.2 | 30 | -3 |
| Will Dissly (LAC) | 14 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 94.9 | 28 | 3.31% | 0.00% | 95.6 | 27 | +1 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 9 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 94.1 | 29 | 4.42% | 0.00% | 96.1 | 26 | +3 |
| Evan Engram (DEN) | 9 | 1.56% | 0.00% | 89.5 | 30 | 1.65% | 0.00% | 89.8 | 31 | -1 |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 13 | 1.56% | 0.00% | 86.7 | 31 | 2.09% | 0.00% | 88.7 | 32 | -1 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 83.6 | 32 | 1.98% | 0.00% | 91.0 | 29 | +3 |
| Brenton Strange (JAC) | 16 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 81.1 | 33 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 82.2 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 73.0 | 34 | 3.79% | 0.00% | 74.2 | 34 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson (NYG) | 12 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 68.1 | 35 | 2.18% | 0.00% | 67.7 | 37 | -2 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) | 15 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 66.7 | 36 | 3.95% | 0.00% | 70.9 | 35 | +1 |
| AJ Barner (SEA) | 16 | 10.53% | 0.00% | 64.1 | 37 | 8.76% | 0.00% | 60.1 | 39 | -2 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 63.8 | 38 | 3.75% | 0.00% | 68.8 | 36 | +2 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 14 | 10.71% | 0.00% | 62.2 | 39 | 8.05% | 0.00% | 57.7 | 40 | -1 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 16 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 59.1 | 40 | 3.59% | 0.00% | 60.2 | 38 | +2 |
| Grant Calcaterra (PHI) | 16 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 56.8 | 41 | 3.25% | 0.00% | 56.6 | 41 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) | 16 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 53.5 | 42 | 2.32% | 0.00% | 52.5 | 42 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle (TEN) | 16 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 50.9 | 43 | 3.15% | 0.00% | 51.9 | 43 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 11 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 45.4 | 44 | 5.17% | 0.00% | 43.3 | 45 | -1 |
| Johnny Mundt (JAC) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 45.2 | 45 | 6.91% | 0.00% | 44.4 | 44 | +1 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.5 | 46 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 34.8 | 47 | -1 |
| Kylen Granson (PHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.5 | 47 | 2.51% | 0.00% | 35.2 | 46 | +1 |
| Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 27.0 | 48 | 1.19% | 0.00% | 29.0 | 48 | 0 |
