Touchdown Regression Report
2023 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 16 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 225.4 | 1 | 6.57% | 0.00% | 212.7 | 3 | -2 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 15 | 4.13% | 0.00% | 219.4 | 2 | 4.91% | 0.00% | 225.0 | 1 | +1 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 15 | 3.94% | 0.00% | 219.0 | 3 | 4.22% | 0.00% | 221.1 | 2 | +1 |
| Evan Engram (JAC) | 16 | 2.80% | 0.00% | 206.4 | 4 | 2.90% | 0.00% | 207.3 | 4 | 0 |
| George Kittle (SF) | 16 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 203.2 | 5 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 196.4 | 6 | -1 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 201.2 | 6 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 203.1 | 5 | +1 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 16 | 6.59% | 0.00% | 174.0 | 7 | 5.92% | 7.83% | 171.7 | 9 | -2 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 16 | 2.83% | 0.00% | 169.1 | 8 | 3.54% | 0.00% | 173.6 | 8 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 16 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 164.2 | 9 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 174.2 | 7 | +2 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 14 | 5.68% | 0.00% | 141.3 | 10 | 5.04% | 0.00% | 137.9 | 12 | -2 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 10 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 135.4 | 11 | 8.78% | 3.33% | 131.7 | 14 | -3 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 13 | 3.61% | 0.00% | 134.9 | 12 | 3.47% | 2.94% | 134.4 | 13 | -1 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 15 | 2.20% | 0.00% | 134.9 | 13 | 3.04% | 0.00% | 139.5 | 11 | +2 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 16 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 132.6 | 14 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 130.5 | 15 | -1 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 15 | 5.00% | 4.94% | 131.6 | 15 | 5.01% | 6.58% | 139.6 | 10 | +5 |
| Logan Thomas | 15 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 124.9 | 16 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 124.1 | 17 | -1 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 14 | 9.68% | 0.00% | 119.9 | 17 | 6.64% | 0.00% | 108.6 | 23 | -6 |
| Tyler Conklin (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 119.5 | 18 | 1.98% | 0.00% | 129.8 | 16 | +2 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 16 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 112.3 | 19 | 4.74% | 21.21% | 115.5 | 18 | +1 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 16 | 5.97% | 0.00% | 111.5 | 20 | 5.29% | 0.00% | 108.8 | 22 | -2 |
| Gerald Everett (CHI) | 14 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 109.7 | 21 | 4.79% | 0.00% | 111.8 | 20 | +1 |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 15 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 108.5 | 22 | 3.26% | 0.00% | 110.2 | 21 | +1 |
| Chig Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 1.28% | 0.00% | 107.8 | 23 | 2.25% | 0.00% | 112.3 | 19 | +4 |
| Darren Waller | 11 | 1.35% | 0.00% | 103.7 | 24 | 1.60% | 0.00% | 104.8 | 24 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 12 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 90.8 | 25 | 5.78% | 0.00% | 87.3 | 25 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 16 | 12.50% | 0.00% | 90.0 | 26 | 8.64% | 0.00% | 80.7 | 26 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson (CIN) | 11 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 77.1 | 27 | 1.84% | 0.00% | 76.6 | 27 | 0 |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 73.4 | 28 | 0.61% | 0.00% | 75.0 | 28 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave (GB) | 10 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 29 | 2.65% | 0.00% | 74.4 | 29 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 11 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 72.7 | 30 | 4.07% | 0.00% | 72.2 | 32 | -2 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 13 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 72.4 | 31 | 5.46% | 0.00% | 73.5 | 31 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 13 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 71.4 | 32 | 4.65% | 0.00% | 70.6 | 34 | -2 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 70.6 | 33 | 4.23% | 10.34% | 69.6 | 35 | -2 |
| Kylen Granson (IND) | 14 | 2.00% | 0.00% | 69.7 | 34 | 3.46% | 2.50% | 74.2 | 30 | +4 |
| Donald Parham Jr. (DEN) | 13 | 9.76% | 0.00% | 66.2 | 35 | 9.55% | 0.00% | 65.7 | 36 | -1 |
| Durham Smythe (MIA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 65.6 | 36 | 2.26% | 0.00% | 71.4 | 33 | +3 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 16 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 63.9 | 37 | 4.27% | 0.00% | 63.4 | 37 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 57.9 | 38 | 6.92% | 0.00% | 60.0 | 39 | -1 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 14 | 9.38% | 0.00% | 57.3 | 39 | 7.90% | 0.00% | 54.5 | 41 | -2 |
| Adam Trautman (DEN) | 16 | 8.57% | 0.00% | 57.3 | 40 | 10.75% | 0.00% | 61.9 | 38 | +2 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 7 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 51.7 | 41 | 3.60% | 0.00% | 55.0 | 40 | +1 |
| Daniel Bellinger (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 50.5 | 42 | 0.48% | 0.00% | 51.3 | 42 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 16 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 48.2 | 43 | 7.35% | 0.00% | 48.6 | 43 | 0 |
| Drew Sample (CIN) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 47.6 | 44 | 5.16% | 0.00% | 44.0 | 46 | -2 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 11 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 44.4 | 45 | 7.07% | 0.00% | 47.7 | 44 | +1 |
| Hayden Hurst (LAC) | 10 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 42.4 | 46 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 44.3 | 45 | +1 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 40.5 | 47 | 1.61% | 0.00% | 43.5 | 47 | 0 |
| Will Mallory (IND) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.7 | 48 | 0.47% | 0.00% | 39.4 | 50 | -2 |
| Connor Heyward (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 37.3 | 49 | 1.59% | 0.00% | 40.5 | 48 | +1 |
| John Bates (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 34.1 | 50 | 3.15% | 0.00% | 39.6 | 49 | +1 |
| Irv Smith Jr. (HOU) | 12 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 33.5 | 51 | 5.63% | 0.00% | 36.3 | 51 | 0 |
