Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Quarterbacks - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | PaTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | PaTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 16 | 5.43% | 12.50% | 374.6 | 1 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 303.5 | 4 | -3 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 16 | 6.30% | 3.85% | 343.2 | 2 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 310.6 | 1 | +1 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 16 | 7.71% | 0.00% | 331.7 | 3 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 269.9 | 9 | -6 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | 16 | 5.17% | 10.98% | 326.9 | 4 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 285.0 | 7 | -3 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 16 | 5.00% | 3.77% | 323.1 | 5 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 309.4 | 2 | +3 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 16 | 4.75% | 3.90% | 305.6 | 6 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 303.5 | 3 | +3 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 16 | 4.08% | 6.02% | 305.3 | 7 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 300.4 | 5 | +2 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 16 | 5.51% | 7.62% | 305.1 | 8 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 266.9 | 11 | -3 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 16 | 5.08% | 2.41% | 299.9 | 9 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 297.7 | 6 | +3 |
| Patrick Mahomes II (KC) | 14 | 4.38% | 7.81% | 295.7 | 10 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 284.4 | 8 | +2 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 288.8 | 11 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 256.7 | 12 | -1 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 16 | 4.79% | 1.82% | 268.7 | 12 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 269.0 | 10 | +2 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 15 | 5.24% | 0.00% | 241.1 | 13 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 239.8 | 13 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | 16 | 5.24% | 0.00% | 240.6 | 14 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 228.3 | 14 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | 13 | 4.95% | 11.11% | 234.4 | 15 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 208.9 | 18 | -3 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 13 | 4.42% | 10.47% | 226.2 | 16 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 197.3 | 22 | -6 |
| Jacoby Brissett (ARI) | 13 | 4.74% | 2.63% | 218.8 | 17 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 218.8 | 16 | +1 |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | 15 | 4.82% | 4.76% | 215.3 | 18 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 202.5 | 21 | -3 |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 15 | 4.81% | 3.70% | 211.5 | 19 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 208.4 | 19 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 12 | 6.95% | 2.99% | 200.4 | 20 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 184.3 | 23 | -3 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 13 | 4.49% | 2.08% | 199.3 | 21 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 210.9 | 17 | +4 |
| Geno Smith (LV) | 15 | 4.24% | 0.00% | 190.9 | 22 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 205.5 | 20 | +2 |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | 16 | 2.78% | 5.13% | 184.5 | 23 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 223.7 | 15 | +8 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 8 | 7.04% | 9.09% | 181.2 | 24 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 137.3 | 30 | -6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 14 | 5.21% | 0.00% | 175.7 | 25 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 169.1 | 25 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco (CIN) | 12 | 3.61% | 4.76% | 156.5 | 26 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 169.5 | 24 | +2 |
| Justin Fields (NYJ) | 9 | 3.43% | 5.63% | 143.7 | 27 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 147.8 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | 10 | 3.06% | 6.67% | 141.2 | 28 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 156.6 | 26 | +2 |
| Mac Jones (SF) | 11 | 4.50% | 0.00% | 136.0 | 29 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 145.2 | 28 | +1 |
| Marcus Mariota (WAS) | 12 | 4.41% | 2.00% | 132.5 | 30 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 140.7 | 29 | +1 |
| J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | 9 | 4.53% | 10.81% | 129.4 | 31 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 110.1 | 34 | -3 |
| Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) | 9 | 3.26% | 4.76% | 123.3 | 32 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 135.9 | 31 | +1 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 7 | 6.56% | 0.00% | 117.3 | 33 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 103.5 | 35 | -2 |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | 7 | 4.26% | 3.45% | 117.3 | 34 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 122.9 | 33 | +1 |
| Spencer Rattler (NO) | 9 | 3.11% | 0.00% | 103.1 | 35 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 125.2 | 32 | +3 |
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 9 | 3.72% | 7.14% | 98.3 | 36 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 101.2 | 36 | 0 |
| Shedeur Sanders (CLE) | 7 | 3.30% | 4.76% | 89.9 | 37 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 94.5 | 37 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray (ARI) | 5 | 3.73% | 3.45% | 80.8 | 38 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 87.4 | 38 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz (MIN) | 5 | 3.55% | 0.00% | 75.3 | 39 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 84.2 | 39 | 0 |
| Dillon Gabriel (CLE) | 10 | 3.78% | 0.00% | 72.1 | 40 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 80.7 | 40 | 0 |
| Davis Mills (HOU) | 5 | 3.14% | 7.69% | 67.0 | 41 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 70.9 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor (NYJ) | 6 | 3.73% | 3.70% | 64.5 | 42 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 69.8 | 42 | 0 |
| Jake Browning (CIN) | 5 | 4.80% | 11.11% | 56.7 | 43 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 51.3 | 44 | -1 |
| Russell Wilson (NYG) | 6 | 2.52% | 0.00% | 52.8 | 44 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 66.9 | 43 | +1 |
| Brady Cook (NYJ) | 4 | 1.31% | 0.00% | 26.4 | 45 | 4.41% | 4.73% | 48.3 | 46 | -1 |
